What red states can Bernie win? What red states can Hillary win?

[bluestateguy]

This discussion thread was locked as off-topic by BlackSkimmer (a host of the General Discussion forum).

It's a fair question.

A candidate who can expand, rather than constrict, the map has the advantage. A candidate who starts off the campaign without writing off huge numbers of states (think of John Kerry in 2004, for ex.) is well-positioned.

You have to make the other side earn their states, so they have to spread their time and money all over the country. So yes, Obama lost North Carolina in 2012, but he only lost it by 3%, and he forced Ramney to campaign there and to earn it.

[still_one]

1. The red states up for grabs will be Florida, Virginia, North Carolina

The purple states will be Wisconsin, Ohio, and Iowa

[HooptieWagon]

2. Florida isn't red, it's a swing state.

Fl went for Obama twice, and went for Gore had the votes been counted.

Sanders will do better in Florida than Hillary. She's just not going to get the Dem base excited to vote. Fl Dems are sick and tired of corporatists.

[still_one]

7. It is a red state today. You don't believe it look at the make up of the legislature. As who will

Last edited Sat Jul 4, 2015, 08:11 PM - Edit history (1)

do better in Florida, no one knows this far out, but whether swing red or purple it will be challenging whoever is our nominee

Also if bush or Rubio are the republican nominees it will be even more challenging

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Lived in FL from 70-012

Despite a slight registration advantage for the Democrats the Republicans control every statewide office except Bill Nelson's Senate seat. They also control the congressional delegation and the state House and Senate.

It's a purple state in presidential politics but pretty red everywhere else.

[still_one]

24. It was different before

[TheNutcracker]

18. Today there are more registered Democrats than repubs. Gerrymandering has made up the legislature.

You can google the numbers. When dems are not excited in Fla the democrats don't get out! republicans win.

[TheNutcracker]

19. ps. that is exactly the problem in Fla with Hillary vs Jeb. Neither party excited and repubs win.

Repubs will still get out and vote. Dems won't. That is Fla voting history since 2001 when they moved to electronic voting machines. They have a paper ballot now but the laws were gutted and ballots stored for recounts only. All counts are electronic and their audit is INADEQUATE. They also mess with "lists" and disenfranchise many. So expect to hear that Fla loves Jeb! Just know it ain't true.

[still_one]

25. Governor is not related to gerrymandering. Neither are Senators like Rubio

[wyldwolf]

3. I don't see Sanders expanding the 2008 or 2012 map

In fact, I see him losing VA, NM, CO and NV.

I see Hillary retaining the 2008 / 2012 map, possibly picking up Indiana.

The DNC will go after Georgia hard with HRC but would likely pull it's resources from there with Sanders.

[bluestateguy]

4. I tend to agree

Sanders is a strictly blue state candidate, much like Kerry.

As for Hillary, I see her being viable in Indiana, Missouri, Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona.

If Trump is nominated, then I'd add Texas to that list.

[wyldwolf]

5. ah, forgot TX with it's Hispanic population and the Castro brothers campaigning

Still, Wendy Davis had her ass handed to her in a statewide election. TX is a long shot for HRC. An impossibility for Sanders.

[Control-Z]

11. If the ticket is Clinton/Castro

they might have a fighting chance.

[PatrickforO]

26. Colorado will go for the Democratic candidate in a presidential election.

There are a lot of independents here, but again people are hungry for what Sanders is espousing because they themselves mostly agree. I think Bernie has a better chance here than Clinton. I really do. Think about Colorado's population - if you take the northern front range with Larimer, Weld, Boulder and metro Denver, Larimer is a toss up, Weld will go GOP, Boulder strong Dem, Denver metro will go Dem (50% of Colorado's population right there). Then Colorado Springs will go red and the rurals will go red with the possible exception of the little southern city of Pueblo.

When Coloradans get out to vote, when they are excited and engaged, the Dem will win.

[NorthCarolina]

6. Lots of folks here in NC

are talking about Bernie. Generally speaking, if you're a "liberal" in NC you don't bring up politics much as a topic of discussion", yet many are suddenly talking "Bernie". When you hear his name mentioned at the checkout line in the Dollar Tree like I have, then you know he is having an impact.

[NorthCarolinaL]

8. I'd say certain areas of NC are quite/semi liberal.

Boone is one of the them. Parts of the research triangle is another, along with a few surrounding counties. Charlotte is a big city also.

[sadoldgirl]

9. Don't count out CO for Bernie

5-6,000 people listened to him, and they came from
over the state.

It depends on how many independents can be
persuaded to register as Dems. I am pretty
sure, that HRC does not have a great base
here.

[Motown_Johnny]

10. we don't need to win red states

Purple states are enough.

Remember two things:

1) No (R) has ever won the White House without winning Ohio. They simply do not have very many electoral paths to 270. We have a major advantage there.

2) Due to the switch in demographics, if the (R) Presidential candidate can't win over 35% of the Latino vote then he/she has no hope of winning.

There will be plenty of time to worry about the General Election once we have our nominee. I think the biggest worry there would be a huge gaffe on our side that might snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. You know, something like claiming to have dodged sniper fire over and over again and then finally blaming it on not getting enough sleep while running an attack ad about a 3:00 am phone call. Someone capable of that big a mistake could ruing everything.

[bluestateguy]

21. I reject this approach

If you start with a small map, it will likely get smaller and smaller as the months go by, leaving less room for error.

John Kerry had this approach in 2004, and one after another, he started throwing states overboard: Missouri and Colorado were thrown overboard in September, and Nevada and Florida were deprioritized in October.

You have to aim big, and I see no evidence yet that Bernie Sanders is doing that.

[Motown_Johnny]

22. I said we don't NEED to .. not that we shouldn't try.

But in the end, 270 or 320.. a win is a win.

As for our seeing no evidence for Bernie Sanders being able to win in red states, look more closely.

I see one hell of a lot more evidence for Sen. Sanders winning red states than I do for Sec. Clinton.




http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/06/03/1390254/-POLL-finds-80-of-Republicans-AGREE-with-BERNIE-SANDERS

^snip^

WED JUN 03, 2015 AT 11:27 AM PDT
POLL finds 80% of Republicans AGREE with BERNIE SANDERS



The CBS/NYT poll found that:

– 80% of Republicans believe that money has too much influence in our politics.

– 54% believed that most of the time candidates directly help those who gave money to them.

– 81% of Republicans felt that the campaign finance system needed fundamental changes (45%) or a complete rebuild (36%).



http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/06/23/1395700/-Republicans-for-Bernie-Sanders

^snip^

MON JUN 22, 2015 AT 08:27 PM PDT
Republicans for Bernie Sanders

It is a real thing.

Now before you all naysayers say "It's just Republicans who want Bernie to win so they can beat them in the GE!" Well maybe the politicians think that... but not the people who are calling themselves Republicans for Bernie Sanders. I believe that there are lot of Republicans who would actually going to vote for him in the general election.

What is my proof for this? Take a look at that sign in the top there. It's from Vermont. A sign on a rabid anti government person's store. Tea party to the extreme. And guess what... there's a sign promoting the "socialist" Bernie Sanders.


http://www.nationofchange.org/2015/05/24/republicans-for-bernie/


^snip^

In the past few days, I’ve run into two Republicans who said that they want Bernie Sanders for President. Republicans for a avowed democratic socialist. How did that happen?

The first one was on Facebook. I later learned his name, Everett Clifford. He commented on a pro-Bernie post that I put up. He told me that he was a Republican, an ex-Marine, and a minister. “Have been living in Vermont for many years, have voted for Bernie every time, very proud of him, he tells us what’s wrong, and how to fix it, never ran a dirty campaign, so as a Republican, Marine vet, and Minister, I’m voting for Bernie Sanders.” I made a poster with him on it and told him I thought that Bernie’s campaign should find more Republicans like him. (I contacted Bernie.org and told them the same thing). If Republicans could supported a democratic socialist, that would show that his message of battling the billionaires has broad appeal. Everett Clifford told me that he thought that there were others like him. (He said he liked my poster. Someone reposted my Clifford poster on a liberal Facebook page and it drew 86 “likes,” which I thought was good, even though I didn’t find my poster that attractive).

Then, a day later, I found a post by another avowed Republican. This post went to great lengths, explaining why the person was supporting Bernie Sanders and was against the Republican party.

I am a long-time GOP supporter. During my teenage years, I witnessed Reagan, contrary to the narrative today, being a very pragmatic moderate Republican. After providing the economy with some Keynesian stimulus in the form of tax cuts, as the economy got back on its feet we saw him increase taxes to help reduce the deficit. He closed loopholes for the wealthy. He granted amnesty (something I oppose but it shows how he was willing to compromise.) He worked with Tip o’Neill to salvage social security. While I did not support Iran Contra, I proudly registered to become a Repbulican just in time for the upcoming election of 1988. I voted for H W Bush, and after being impressed with his pragmatism (I.E. raising taxes although they were unpopular) I voted for him again. During the Clinton Presidency, however, I began to notice a substantial shift to the right. They pushed legislation like DOMA and NAFTA which I could absolutely not support. However, they showed willingness to compromise with Clinton on major issues such as welfare reform and balancing the budget, so I was not yet ready to abandon the GOP, although I did vote for Perot in ’96.

[tkmorris]

12. There are limits to this logic

Taken to it's extreme, we should clearly nominate Jeb Bush for President. Now I know you aren't suggesting such a thing, I am merely pointing out that there is a LOT more to consider than just which candidate plays well in reddish states.

[Kalidurga]

13. West Virginia, Kentucky, and Missouri.

[a la izquierda]

16. I think Bernie could do well in WV.

We'll see, I guess.

[Kalidurga]

17. I chose those states because while they are red states they have Democratic Governors IIRC.

Bernie just needs to be embraced by them while at the same time highlighting how those Governors have improved their states.

[a la izquierda]

20. Yes, we have a Democratic governor...

He's pretty conservative, but he's vetoed anti-choice legislation and ordered judges and clerks to issue same-sex marriage licenses when the Supreme Court refused to hear the case in our Federal District (I guess about 6 months ago or so).

He's certainly not what I want in a Democrat, but Tomblin isn't atrocious either. Hell of a lot better than a Republican!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. This really belongs in GDP

All I will say is that any Democrat needs to demonstrate they can hold the states BHO won by five points or less, which without a substantial win for us becomes a substantial loss.

[99Forever]

23. What's "fair" about it?

People pulling predictions out of thin air as if they actually have some sort of special insight?

It's all bullshit to bolster their own preconceived opinions. Nothing more, nothing less.


Where I come from, we just call them guesses.

[BillZBubb]

27. Both would have a lot of trouble winning any red states.

Hillary has Faux created "baggage" that the repubs will spoon feed to the red state morons. Bernie is a "socialist"! That word alone will send the red state imbeciles scampering to vote R.

Some of the swing states are in play. But none of the solid red states.