Welcome to DU!
The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards.
Join the community:
Create a free account
Support DU (and get rid of ads!):
Become a Star Member
Latest Breaking News
General Discussion
The DU Lounge
All Forums
Issue Forums
Culture Forums
Alliance Forums
Region Forums
Support Forums
Help & Search
PPP: Obama holds small lead in NC
Obama holds small lead in NC
PPP's newest poll of the Presidential race in North Carolina finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 48-47. That sort of razor thin margin has been the constant in PPP's 19 monthly polls of the state dating back to November of 2010. Only once has either Obama or Romney led by more than a 3 point margin, suggesting the state's headed for the same sort of photo finish it had in 2008.
This month's poll does represent an improvement for Romney. The one time the race strayed from a 3 point margin one way or the other was last month, when Obama led by 5 points. Since wrapping up the Republican nomination Romney's seen a 13 point improvement in his net favorability from -29 (29/58) to -16 (37/53). He's still not popular, but his standing with independents and GOP voters is getting a lot better as conservatives unify around him for the general.
Republicans have moved from supporting Romney by an 84-7 margin to a 90-5 one in the last month. He's also flipped independent voters, going from a 51-38 disadvantage with them to a narrow 48-44 lead.
Obama maintains strong advantages with several key groups that should ensure North Carolina remains closely contested right on through the fall. He's up 53-43 with women, reflective of the GOP's struggles with that voter group everywhere. He has a 55-35 advantage with young voters, showing little slippage from our polling in 2008 with them. And he's polling at 87% with African Americans and more importantly we continue to see high levels of enthusiasm from black voters, making it likely that they'll again comprise 23% of the electorate as they did in 2008.
<...>
We also looked at what impact Gary Johnson could have as the Libertarian candidate. He gets 6% and draws slightly more from Romney than Obama, pushing the President's lead up to 2 points at 46-44. Third party candidates tend to poll a lot better six months out from an election than they actually end up doing on election day- it seems unlikely Johnson will really get 6%.
- more -
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/05/obama-holds-small-lead-in-nc.html
PPP's newest poll of the Presidential race in North Carolina finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 48-47. That sort of razor thin margin has been the constant in PPP's 19 monthly polls of the state dating back to November of 2010. Only once has either Obama or Romney led by more than a 3 point margin, suggesting the state's headed for the same sort of photo finish it had in 2008.
This month's poll does represent an improvement for Romney. The one time the race strayed from a 3 point margin one way or the other was last month, when Obama led by 5 points. Since wrapping up the Republican nomination Romney's seen a 13 point improvement in his net favorability from -29 (29/58) to -16 (37/53). He's still not popular, but his standing with independents and GOP voters is getting a lot better as conservatives unify around him for the general.
Republicans have moved from supporting Romney by an 84-7 margin to a 90-5 one in the last month. He's also flipped independent voters, going from a 51-38 disadvantage with them to a narrow 48-44 lead.
Obama maintains strong advantages with several key groups that should ensure North Carolina remains closely contested right on through the fall. He's up 53-43 with women, reflective of the GOP's struggles with that voter group everywhere. He has a 55-35 advantage with young voters, showing little slippage from our polling in 2008 with them. And he's polling at 87% with African Americans and more importantly we continue to see high levels of enthusiasm from black voters, making it likely that they'll again comprise 23% of the electorate as they did in 2008.
<...>
We also looked at what impact Gary Johnson could have as the Libertarian candidate. He gets 6% and draws slightly more from Romney than Obama, pushing the President's lead up to 2 points at 46-44. Third party candidates tend to poll a lot better six months out from an election than they actually end up doing on election day- it seems unlikely Johnson will really get 6%.
- more -
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/05/obama-holds-small-lead-in-nc.html
Given recent events, this is really good!
