The Real Trump Math

[louis c]

Donald Trump is being hailed by the Press as the real Republican front-runner nationally and driving the debate in the Presidential race. Here's my analysis.

There are two hot button issues, one on the right and the other, well, about working class Americans. One is immigration, and I intentionally mention immigration and not illegal immigration, because those who believe in Trump's position hate all immigrants.

The other issue is trade. On trade, those of us who think that all the trade deals over the last two decades have killed the middle class have an articulate and consistent spokesperson, Bernie Sanders. We don't need a hypocrite like Trump to speak for us. A hypocrite who makes his products in China, rather than America.

So that leaves Trump with one segment of the electorate he can really resonate with. Bigots.

Here's my math. About 30% of the electorate are Republicans and 20% of that 30% are bigots (1 in 5). The Democrats used to own this segment until 1964 and 1965, hence the term "yellow dog Democrats" and the "Solid South". We threw them out of our party with the Civil Rights laws and Voting Rights Laws during that time. They went to Wallace first, then they became Republicans. The "Solid South" is now solidly Republican, although we are tending to enlighten some and form coalitions in Virginia and North Carolina, but I digress.

I don't think there are as many bigots in this country as others may, but there certainly are some. I estimate it at 6% to 10% of the total population. Trump has them all (or almost all). I firmly believe those people reside in the Republican Party, although some we classify themselves as Independents. So, 30% of that 6% to 10% is 18% to 30%. That's Trump's ceiling in the Republican Party. That number looks huge when you divide the pie up 15 ways, but it can't win him anything in the long run.

In the General, that's 6% to 10% of the vote.

My prediction is Trump starts to get shunned and criticized by the Republican Party, and breaks off to run as a third party candidate.

The 6% to 10% of the bigots in this country will vote for Trump. Without the bigot vote in the Republican column, it will be impossible for any Republican candidate to win any swing state with Trump in the race.

Let's see if it plays out that way.

[Bagsgroove]

1. "Agents of intolerance"

I'm curious how you came to your estimate of 6% of the country as "bigots," but whatever the number you've hit the main point of the GOP's Trump problem.

Remember in the 2000 Republican primaries when John McCain called Jerry Falwell an "agent of intolerance?" The hard right never forgave him for that, even when in 2008 he changed his mind (as is his wont) and embraced Falwell. The racist right always knew that McCain was a fake...not really one of them. His loss to Obama was largely due to a poor turnout among the GOP's hard-right base.

This is what Republican candidates (and the party as a whole) are faced with in Donald Trump. Criticize his bigotry too harshly and you risk alienating the base, ignore his bigotry and you alienate everybody else.

Not only that, but if enough of the GOP actually does do the right thing and denounce Trump, it increases the chances he'll run as an independent and siphon off just enough votes in the general election to elect a Democrat. Ross Perot redux.

Poor babies...my heart goes out to them (insert sarcasm thingy here)

[longship]

2. Well, let's see if this is the way it works out.

It certainly is a credible scenario, and even some online pundits have been saying so since Trump made the threat to run as an independent the other day.

It certainly fits his arrogant, narcissistic style.

R&

[JHB]

3. I think Trump went in as just another brand-promotion exercise...

...but I'm not sure what will happen if he thinks he can win it.

He might do the Perot thing and make an independent run.

He might broker a deal with the party establishment, playing king-maker to endorse a more "mainstream" candidate in exchange for some sort of sweet deal.

He could sink in the polls in a few weeks, and eventually bow out.

Hell, he could have a completely normal accident or medical problem, and his entire fan base would be split over whether it was Jeb or Hillary who "tried to silence" him.

Still way to early, with too many things that can happen, to tell.

[GreatGazoo]

4. Cruz, Rubio, Bush and then Mexican-hating Trump

Trump is driving a wedge between the GOP and not just Hispanic American conservative voters, but also the less-bigoted GOP rand and file. Cruz, Rubio and Bush plan to deliver both of those groups to the GOP but Trump is willing to split the party with overt bigotry in order to try to win the nomination.

My prediction: Trump will get something from the GOP in order to go away -- favors, deals, construction contracts, law change, zoning changes, etc. If Trump runs 3rd party he helps HRC win it all.

[sufrommich]

5. With his giant sized ego, he may not be able to resist the call

of an independent run if he doesn't get the GOP nom. That would be hilarious indeed.

[Jim Lane]

6. I think his ego will push him the other way.

He would abhor the prospect of a third-place finish with 1% (Johnson, the Libertarian, in 2012) or even 6% (Anderson in 1980). A Perot-style showing in double digits would be less embarrassing but still a third-place finish.

I'd love to see him run as an independent but I think it's very unlikely.