538 Roundtable: "Is The Republican Establishment Losing Control Of The Party?"

[Attorney in Texas]

Great discussion over at fivethirtyeight.com:

Nate Silver, editor in chief:

we’re both bearish on Trump, in part, because as the field consolidates, he isn’t likely to pick up that much second-choice support....My concern, if I’m Reince Priebus, isn’t necessarily that Ted Cruz or Donald Trump is going to win the nomination. It’s that an establishment candidate eventually does, but it gets ugly....if you look at the correlation between the share of the primary vote that the nominee gets and how the party does in the general election, it’s pretty strong. ...if you reach the stage where there’s genuine doubt about the identity of the nominee in June, it means that some major constituencies within the Republican Party are going to feel dealt out of the process. And also, you have less time for the sort of healing that parties usually get in June, July, etc. Probably some big fights at the convention, which if nothing else harms the GOP’s ability to control the message.... all these campaigns have to remind themselves is that it’s a marathon, not a sprint, even though the media horde treats it as a series of sprints.

Harry Enten, senior political writer:

We can look back to the 2012 cycle and see where things were in November of 2011. We had Newt Gingrich taking the lead from Herman Cain. Gingrich, Cain, Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann added up to greater than 50 percent of the vote, and Mitt Romney became the nominee. If I’m the GOP’s establishment wing, I’m far more concerned not with what the outsiders added up to, but that there is no insidery candidate who is doing particularly well. ... We already see some of that going on in the Ipsos polling where Trump gains when the contest is down to just him, Jeb Bush and Scott Walker, but Bush and Walker gain a lot more ground.

Micah Cohen, senior editor:

Trump is such an unusual candidate — he’s crazier than a Gingrich or a Cain — that his leading the polls right now is indicative of something unusual brewing among Republican voters. And the GOP establishment might have a tougher time reining that energy in this election than in past cycles. And the post-debate Carson bump, even if it’s temporary, backs that up.... there’s no establishment candidate looking too good at the moment. If you’re Reince Priebus, aren’t you sweating a little?

[jeff47]

1. I think they're using the wrong verb tense in the subject. (nt)

[Gothmog]

2. The GOP donor class may well have lost control of the process

This will be fun to watch

[Marr]

3. They managed to get their way last time with Romney.

Man, that Republican primary season was really funny. It was like every faction of the GOP had their own mascot on stage; the evangelicals, the libertarians, the war heads, the plutocrats, the racists, etc., etc.