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Wed Aug 19, 2015, 11:16 AM

"Donald Trump exposes Jeb Bush's problem: the GOP doesn't want a bland political insider"

good analysis that's fun to read:

Jeb Bush planned to win the Republican primary with a shock-and-awe strategy. Instead, it's been a shocking fall for the onetime GOP frontrunner.

He started the campaign with the most famous name in Republican politics, a $100 million-plus stake, and clear, if underwhelming, favorite status in early polling. But Bush has fallen fastest and farthest against the backdrop of Donald Trump's rise.... Trump's success is rooted in his ability to tell grassroots Republican voters exactly what they want to hear, particularly on immigration. Bush prides himself on telling them what he thinks they need to hear, especially when they disagree with him. Rather than winning credit for sticking to his guns, he has alienated large portions of the Republican electorate.

The broader context here is that fundamental assumptions about the strength of Bush's candidacy must be reassessed... because Trump ... emergence has exposed and emphasized some of Bush's deepest flaws. Conservatives don't trust him, he isn't unifying the establishment, he's bland on the trail, and, next to Trump, Bush seems like the consummate political insider. As a result, it's getting harder to see how he would build a coalition to win the nomination.
...
*45 percent of Republicans trust Donald Trump the most on the economy, compared with 8 percent for Bush.
*Trump gets 44 percent on the question who "can best handle illegal immigration," with Bush coming in second at 12 percent.
*By a 32 percent to 16 percent spread over second-place finisher Bush, Republicans choose Trump as the best choice for dealing with ISIS.
*At 7 percent, Bush tied with Marco Rubio at sixth among voters who support the Tea Party, ranking behind Trump (27 percent), Ben Carson (11 percent), Ted Cruz and Scott Walker (10 percent each), and Carly Fiorina (9 percent).

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Wed Aug 19, 2015, 11:40 AM

1. Come on. Nobody wanted the bland insider Rmoney. And then they compromised on him.

Rule #1 for campaigns: Don't talk too much, you might say something embarassing. Let your image do the work.

Trump is violating this rule and there is more than enough time for him to implode...

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Response to DetlefK (Reply #1)

Wed Aug 19, 2015, 12:45 PM

3. Agreed, but there are (at least) two key differences between Romney and Bush. (1) While the "flavor-

of-the-month" candidates from 2012 rose up in waves one after another to Trump-type poll numbers (Perry, then Cain, then Gingrich, etc.), Romney was also consistently polling very strongly and was routinely at the top of the polls or was a close number 2 right behind the flavor-of-the-month; Bush is not polling nearly that well in terms of his overall support or in terms of consistently being the number 1 or number 2 candidate.

(2) Long before this point in the process, Romney was the consensus establishment choice (maybe you could argue that Perry briefly flirted with the establishment, but Romney was clearly the establishment choice before Perry entered the race and after Perry gathered a few establishment endorsements upon his entry into the race, Romney was back on top as the clear establishment choice within a month); in contrast, it looked like Bush had the establishment locked up early (like Romney) but then Walker, and Rubio, and Christie, and now even Kasich are getting some support from the establishment party structure -- Bush has failed to establish himself as the clear choice of the mainstream Republican establishment in a way that Romney convincingly took hold of that role.

The MSM is constipated with "OMG Has Hillary Stalled?!?" stories (I'm in the Sanders camp and even I am gagging on the sheer volume of the MSM hand-wringing stories on MSNBC and schadenfreude stories on the WSJ/FauxNews). Comparing the Clinton and Bush campaigns, if the Clinton campaign has stubbed its toe, then the Bush campaign has had both of its legs blown off.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Wed Aug 19, 2015, 12:15 PM

2. Jeb is a weak and boring candidate

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Response to Gothmog (Reply #2)

Thu Aug 20, 2015, 12:35 AM

8. "45 percent of Republicans trust Trump the most on the economy, compared with 8 percent for Bush"

that is a YUGE statistic from the poll

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #8)

Thu Aug 20, 2015, 05:41 AM

11. That is a really bad number for Jeb

The RNC and the Kochs are going to be upset if Jeb is not the GOP nominee

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Response to Gothmog (Reply #11)

Thu Aug 20, 2015, 10:03 AM

12. You have to wonder how many of those who helped him raise $100,000,000 now regret their contribution

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Wed Aug 19, 2015, 12:47 PM

4. one sign of a loser candidate is if they have to add an exclamation point to their name.

 

If you have to add excitement via punctuation, your candidate sucks.

See Bush, Jeb!; see also Alexander, Lamar!

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #4)

Wed Aug 19, 2015, 12:51 PM

5. When does the Bush campaign become morally obligated to switch to "Jeb?" from "Jeb!"

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #5)

Wed Aug 19, 2015, 12:53 PM

6. I was thinking "~Jeb" nt

 

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Wed Aug 19, 2015, 12:54 PM

7. Trump is wrong.

It's not that Jebro is boring (and he is) it's that Republican voters were weened on shock and sensationalism. They see the firecrackers with Trump and say "oooo pretty".

If the GOP leadership were smart they'd back Trump. He's the perfect "shiny thing" to keep the dufus Republican voters happy while the economic predators go to work on stealing every damn thing. And he's on their side so he's happy to play the buffoon.

Not that it matters that much. WhistleAss' idiot brother is so lacking in spine or smarts he'd be pretty easy to roll when they need to.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Thu Aug 20, 2015, 12:36 AM

9. no, the gop doesn't want trump

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Response to spanone (Reply #9)

Thu Aug 20, 2015, 01:49 AM

10. Between a fifth and a third of Republican primary voters want Trump. Too bad for Trump those numbers

don't add up to winning the nomination. The other four-fifths to two-thirds of the Republican party is scared shitless of Trump. They have created a monster (Trump's not the monster; the real monster is Trump's know-nothing supporters) which has slipped out of the party's control. This Trump-supporter segment of the party is currently too small to take control of the party, but there is no guarantee that this will remain true into the not-too-distant future.

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