Looking at the undisputed facts in the Zimmerman case and applying Zimmerman's original story

[Tommy_Carcetti]

Last edited Mon May 21, 2012, 12:38 PM - Edit history (1)

So much has been made about the Trayvon Martin/George Zimmerman case and there's been a lot of speculation, and a lot of "We really don't know what happened." But despite all those questions, there are some key facts that are not in dispute:

1. The night of the shooting, Trayvon Martin was unarmed, was walking home from a convenience store, and was an authorized guest at his father's fiancee's house at the Twin Lakes townhouse complex.
2. George Zimmerman saw Trayvon Martin walking, called police dispatch and told them that Trayvon "looked like he was up to no good".
3. Zimmerman was told that police were on the way.
4. When Zimmerman exited his vehicle, he was armed.
5. George Zimmerman shot Trayvon Martin, resulting in his death.
6. The shooting occurred roughly 300 feet from Trayvon's father's fiancee's house.

Those are not facts that can be twisted either way; those are clear, undisputed facts, take them or leave them.

Now let's weigh those undisputed facts with accounts of what Zimmerman's original statement to police were. While original statements are not always accurate as to details (such as matters of identification), you have to keep in mind that the original statements still offer the best glance as to what Zimmerman's story would be (whether true or false). There would be little or no time to make up certain things to conform to known facts because in all likelihood, Zimmerman didn't know all the facts himself when he told his original story. So this is the one that the jury should really pay attention to when the matter comes to trial. And according to what I've read (http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trayvon-martin-started-confrontation-zimmerman-lawyer-says/2012/03/26/gIQAIlr0cS_story.html), Zimmerman's original story can be summarized:

1. He exited his vehicle.
2. Trayvon saw him and took off running.
3. Zimmerman followed him in pursuit but lost track of him.
4. After losing Trayvon, Zimmerman was walking back to his vehicle.
5. Trayvon then surprised him from behind, asked him, "You have a problem with me?" and then punched him.
6. In the resulting scuffle, Zimmerman feared for his life and shot Trayvon dead.

Now, let's look at this story in the vein of the known facts. We know that Trayvon was doing nothing wrong that night; he was walking home from the store to the house where he was staying. He had every right to be walking through the Twin Lakes complex that night.

Then looking at what Zimmerman said, let's assume that Zimmerman indeed exited his vehicle and started chasing Trayvon. From Trayvon's perspective, you are a kid who hasn't done anything wrong and a strange man is chasing you. You run. It makes perfect sense. So far so good...but....

But here's where Zimmerman's story breaks apart. Zimmerman apparently loses sight of Trayvon. He then retreats back to his car (mind you, knowing that police have already been summoned even before he left his vehicle). He then claims that Trayvon, for all intents and purposes, ambushes him. He surprises him from behind, there is a two line exchange and then Trayvon begins to wail on him.

Now, look at the map I provided and put yourself in Trayvon's shoes for a minute. You've done nothing wrong, just minding your business, but you've found yourself being chased by a stranger for reasons unknown to you. You've managed to lose your pursuer. You are 300 feet from home. Do you:

a) Continue running back home, get home in about 30 seconds, and then tell your dad something to the effect of, "Holy shit, some stranger started chasing me out there when I was coming home!" (And if I'm his dad, I call the police because there could be a predator on the prowl for all we know).

Or, do you:

b) Notwithstanding the fact you've been chased for unknown reasons by a strange man who may or may not be armed, you decide to hide out, sneak up on the strange man who had just been chasing you, surprise him, ask him if he has a problem and then start to wail away on him, again not knowing how strong this man is or whether or not he is armed (which tragically, he was....)

Option B makes absolutely no sense to me. Zero. None. It defies all logic and human nature. Someone so close to safety is not going to want to pick a fight. I don't care if you are 17 or 50, there are some things that make sense and some things that don't. And Option B makes no sense.

Yet that is what Zimmerman wanted the police to believe and will want a jury to believe.

I dont' know if it was murder or manslaughter that night. I don't know who threw the first punch. But I do know that nothing about Zimmerman's story makes sense. People do not go ambushing and attacking strangers in normal circumstances, especially if the stranger is someone who was chasing them for no apparent reason. At that stage in the game, flight beats fight easily. And if the prosecution here is worth its salt, they better raise these same issues.

(On edit, it appears there may be some dispute as to when exactly Zimmerman exited his car and when he was told by dispatch not to follow Trayvon, so I removed those facts from "undisputed"....but I don't think that changes the situation overall in the least.)

[Common Sense Party]

1. #3 is not quite correct.

Zimmerman was already out of his vehicle, running, when dispatch told him "We don't need you to do that." That part is clear on the tape.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

2. Thanks.

I don't think it helps Zimmerman out that much though.

[Common Sense Party]

4. Oh, no, not in the least.

I think about the only thing that can help Zimmerman is bullet trajectory, if it somehow can prove that Trayvon was on top of him, pummeling him at the moment he was shot. That's the only way he can claim self-defense, i would think.

But he was already huffing and puffing when the dispatcher told him to knock it off. You can then hear his breathing go down (and the wind noise diminish) as he walks. But rather than walking back to his vehicle, was he still walking TOWARD where he thought Trayvon had gone?

[BeGoodDoGood]

45. Option B

I think option B is exactly what happened. Zimmerman lost sight of Martin and was walking back to his car. Taking advantage of the darker area away from the parking lot, Martin rushed Zimmerman and knocked him down. He knelt down on Zimmerman eliciting the incoherent screams audible on the one tape. He saw the pistol and rather than let him grab it, Zimmerman shot him in self defense.

Walt

[Tommy_Carcetti]

49. So what is Martin's motive in chosing to ambush Zimmerman instead of retreating to safety?

Really, I would like to know your thoughts on the subject. Because I'm not seeing how it logically adds up.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

52. Wow. Okay. Wow.

Wow.

I mean, wow.

SMH.

So the guy gets chased by a stranger for no reason, and his first thought is, "Hey, let's test out my MMA moves!"

And, I'm sorry, your response to my question is "Thug Life"?

Really. I mean. Wow.

[BeGoodDoGood]

64. Yeah, Wow

It's the only thing that makes any sense.

The idea that Zimmerman stalked and attacked Martin is ludicrous. Martin attacked Zimmerman - doubled back from his route home to attack Zimmerman.

Zimmerman, I think, got in way over his head; sure he was a wannabee cop and 'Watch Captain" with a hand gun. He never should have approached Martin or followed him in any way. But that is not illegal. The only thing that makes sense is that Martin doubled back, started a fight with Zimmerman probably with a view to just thumping him.

Both were young and inexperienced, both contributed to the tragedy. But Martin was the one throwing hands first. The way it escalated, Zimmerman had no choice but to shoot him.

That was the Sanford PD's initial take on it, and it will stand up in court.

Walt

[Tommy_Carcetti]

67. "These assholes always get away."

Remind me again, who said that?

Let's see, Zimmerman is obsessed about crime in his neighborhood. While his role as neighborhood watchman is to merely observe and report and wait for the police to arrive, his little statement on tape makes me think that he wasn't satisfied with that role. He sees Trayvon, he thinks--perhaps in part to his skin color--Trayvon is a miscreant up to no good, and adamant that "these assholes" won't get away this time, he decides to leave the safety of his vehicle and follow him. Which some may call stalking.

Perhaps it is to detain Trayvon until the police arrive. Perhaps it is to give Trayvon a good talking to. Perhaps it may be something more sinister, but I'll wait for the evidence to draw such conclusions. But clearly by his own words, Zimmerman was a man on a mission, and no commands/suggestions from the dispatcher was going to dissuade him.

So, he says he chases Trayvon. Meanwhile, Trayvon has done nothing wrong. Nothing. You do know that. Nothing. He is a kid being chased by an adult and he does not know why.

So who is being aggressive here? You tell me.

Yet you will tell me that in the process of being chased for reasons unknown to him, Trayvon decides to take the opportunity to practice his "thug life" and display his MMA saavy.

Are you being totally honest here?

[BeGoodDoGood]

69. Numerous Break-ins

Seems like there had been multiple break-ins in that neighborhood by people who matched Martin's demographic.


"When Zimmerman, a crime watch volunteer, spotted Martin as he walked through the development, he called police. The complex had endured several break-ins, which witnesses had attributed to young black men who sneaked into the gated community on foot through a patch of trees in the back."

Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/2012/05/17/3616248/evidence-released-in-trayvon-martin.html#storylink=cpy

You are torturing yourself to reach a nonsensical conclusion.

Walt

[Daalalou]

71. Most rapists are men. Does that give anyone the right to profile all men?

In addition, of the 8 robberies, 3 were committed by black men, one by someone non-black, and in four cases, the perpetrators were unknown.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

72. Well, at least you realize in a very backwards way the racial component of this case.

1. Did Zimmerman ever admit seeing Trayvon doing anything that suggested he was attempting to break into anyone's house?

2. What exactly was Trayvon doing that was so suspicious?

3. And why would Trayvon have decided to have a sudden change of heart from running in fear from a stranger to deciding it would be a great chance to practice his MMA moves?

Please, answer me these questions. I really hope you do, and I'm not being sarcastic. I would like to see your opinions on it.

(By the way, you aren't being honest when you say that Sanford PD's initial reaction was that nothing illegal happened. At least one of the investigating officiers recommended a manslaughter charge.)

[BeGoodDoGood]

76. Martin Was Clearly the Aggressor Ultimately

You started this thread and I hate for you to look like a fool, but...

Martin matched the profile of people breaking into homes in that complex. That covers #1 and #2.

Re #3, Zimmerman moved into a less well lighted area of the complex and of course he had dismounted his vehicle. My opinion is that Martin decided to jump Zimmerman. That is the only thing that makes sense.

Walt

[Tommy_Carcetti]

80. What profile other than black and male?

There are thousands of black males living in Sanford, Florida alone.

Did one of the suspects in these prior break-ins have a tattoo that Trayvon had? Did they share an identifying mark that Trayvon had?

Can you answer that? Could Zimmerman answer that?

If no, I suggest you shut the hell up.

And you didn't answer my third question, Walt. Here's your logic:

1. Trayvon is being chased by Zimmerman despite not having committed any actual offense.
2. Zimmerman loses Trayvon.
3. ????????
4. Trayvon decides to practice MMA skills and ambushes Zimmerman.

[BeGoodDoGood]

83. Well...

Well, I can only break it down into so many parts for you, but Martin, as it turns out was a pretty good candidate for profiling, not only for being suspended repeatedly from school, having THC in his system, and the fact that he felt empowered to punch George Zimmerman in the face , get him down on the ground and pummel him. He did that to a degree that Zimmerman had to apply deadly force to save his own life.

So I'd definitely say profiling worked in this case.

Walt

[Tommy_Carcetti]

85. Really....I mean, Really....

Trayvon was suspended for a non-violent offense, something that occurs just as much in rich suburban prep schools as it does in inner city public schools, there's no evidence as to when the THC was in his system (could have been 30 days prior) and regardless there's no evidence that even if he had smoked it that night, it would have made him more aggressive.

Trayvon had no criminal record, and more importantly, no violent criminal record.

But you know who did have a violent criminal record........

And the rest is just stupid conjecture on your part. It's not clear who threw the first punch. But Zimmerman's original story that he was attacked without provocation by Trayvon makes no sense.

[BeGoodDoGood]

86. Well...

Zimmerman did provoke Martin to a degree. Did he provoke Martin to the point where Martin had the right to punch him in the face?

No.

The only thing that makes sense and that fits the time line, known facts and witness statements is that Martin was the aggressor.



Walt

[Tommy_Carcetti]

90. Again, we are going off of Zimmerman's ORIGINAL STORY.

Zimmerman said that he chased Travyon, lost Trayvon, then was walking back to his car. He then says that Trayvon snuck up and surprised him from behind by shouting, "You have a problem with me?" and that he replied, "No" and then Trayvon responded by saying, "Well you do now" and that he immediately started punching him at that point without further provocation.

You are answering your own question but you are too damn stupid to realize it. Under this scenario, Zimmerman didn't sufficiently provoke Trayvon to hit him, and Trayvon was acting like an aggressive lunatic.

Except there is nothing to suggest that Trayvon was prone to act like an aggressive lunatic.

So Zimmerman's story fails the BS meter from the get-go.

It's not that Zimmerman was right in the situation that he described, it's that Zimmerman was BSing the cops when he first told them the story. There may have been a physical confrontation and punches may have been thrown, including by Trayvon, but chances are that it didn't happen as Zimmerman first described it.

Which leads you to ask, why would Zimmerman lie to police? And I think there's a logical answer to that.....

(You remind me of the numbskulls that defend Allen West's actions in Iraq by claiming his shooting of a gun next to an unarmed detainee stopped a future planned attack against West's unit. Except that there was no future planned attack in the first place, so of course it would never happen.)

[JI7]

89. Zimmerman is the one with history of violent assaults against other people, Trayvon's offenses

were all non violent and common among young people of all races.

[EOTE]

95. Do you even know what profiling is?

No, I'm quite sure you don't if you have the balls to post something so ungodly stupid. So, having THC in your system makes you eligible for profiling? I can't put into words how insanely stupid that is. And you say that "the fact that he felt empowered to punch George Zimmerman in the face". Do you even know what a fact is? This post is one of the stupidest things I've ever read on DU and that's truly saying something. Dear god, each time I think I've seen the pinnacle of hatred and stupidity...

[frylock]

96. let's break it down like this..

you're a racist fuckwad. it's the only thing that makes any sense. now go fuck off.

[EOTE]

99. I have to give a big thumbs up to this.

Your comment will probably be hidden (I hope it's not), but dear god, this has got to be one of the most sickening defenses of Zimmerman I've heard on this site.

[frylock]

107. i'm sick of these trolls signing up here to spread their racisct crap..

been here for 10+ years, and i can't ever remember a subject that has attracted the trolls like this has.

[MattBaggins]

100. We have every reason to believe that Zimmerman provoked Martin

given his known history of violent tendencies.

Oh wait using the past history only counts for the black kid.

[treestar]

117. Zimmerman didn't know any of that

He suspected Martin only for being a black male. And not all of the burglaries were committed by black males. You're essentially saying that black males are suspect just for being.

[CatWoman]

84. Based on your insulting, moronic comments to the OP

you are the one looking like an idiot.

you can pull crap out of your ass all you want, but FACTS trump crap each and every day.

having said that, what FACTS present Martin as the aggressor?

and no, your "opinion" doesn't make sense, or count as a fact.

If Martin did "attack" Zimmerman at his truck, how the hell did they wind up where the boy's body was found?

again, it is no crime in this country to be a young, black male.

Thankfully, evolution has put a damper on your "kill them all" mentality.

[BeGoodDoGood]

88. Well...

You are welcome to your opinion. This is a stupid thread. This is a subject totally worn out over time. The OP's position is ridiculous.

Further, the only thing that makes a shred of sense is that Martin doubled back and surprised Zimmerman, and then commenced to thump him.


Walt

[Tommy_Carcetti]

91. Brawndo's got what plants crave.

It's got electrolytes.

[CatWoman]

73. so the answer to preventing crime

is to hunt down and kill all young black boys, regardless of guilt or innocence?

Talk about nonsensical.

That said, I live in a mixed neighborhood, that has been plaqued by break-ins, by young black men.

If I see something suspicious, I call the police and let THEM handle it.

The police were good enough to come to our neighborhood to give us a briefing on what and what NOT to do.

[BeGoodDoGood]

77. No One Suggested Killing All Young Black Men

But young black men had been implicated in numerous break-ins in that complex. Zimmerman was right to report Martin. He was wrong to approach him.

Walt

[EOTE]

94. Yeah, it makes so much more sense that a kid with Skittles and tea went looking for a fight.

After calling his girlfriend and telling her that some dude is stalking him.

You believe 100% the story of the man on charge for murder, the story which has changed numerous times. You choose to believe, without question, the story of the guy who had called this kid a "fucking coon" who "always gets away" just minutes before he shot the kid.

I'm guessing the defense hopes beyond hope that they can find a jury filled with uncritical thinkers like yourself.

[treestar]

116. Why not shoot him in the arm or shoulder then?

Why did he shoot him dead? Any shot would have stopped the kid.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

118. Or simply show his gun?

Regardless of who started the fight, Zimmerman could have easily ended it simply by showing his gun without shooting. I guaran-damn-tee you that had Trayvon been on top of him, he would have backed off in less than a second from when the gun was shown.

But again, the theory of defense is not just that Trayvon was stupid (and prone to ambush and antagonize someone who had been chasing him down), but that Travon was the absolute stupidest and most moronic person on the planet.

And I know some will bash me when I say I don't believe such theories out of sheer logic, but if not logic, than what am I to believe? Will the jury be prohibited from using logic as well?

[treestar]

121. Or just told him he had a gun

Zimmerman could have also explained he was the neighborhood watchman to start with and been friendly with the encounter from the beginning. Asking someone "what are you doing here?" is confrontational and invites and unfriendly response. If I were a black man I'd be sensitive to that anyway. Like you're asking me why I'm here just for walking down the street? And there were black people living in that complex, too.

[magical thyme]

124. except for a few points

1. There was at least one eye witness to the chase. That witness's statement is corroborated independently by Martin's girlfriend, who was on the phone with Martin at the time.

2. the idea that Zimmerman stalked and attacked Martin is anything but ludicrous. Zimmerman has a known history of trying to get on the police force. He has a known history of violence and temper. His statements during his 911 call about "those fucking %$5! always get away" points to frustration and motivation. He is known to have been using prescription drugs that can cause mood swings and violence.

3. Zimmerman's description of events has changed numerous times. For example, under testimony he stated that he didn't realize how much younger Martin was. But in his 911 call, he specifically called Martin a teen.

4. In Zimmerman's police statement, he claimed that Martin circled his car, making him so afraid that he rolled up his window to avoid a confrontation. Yet in his blow-by-blow on the 911 call, he says that Martin is approaching his car, looking at him. And now he's walking away. He says nothing about Martin circling his car, or rolling up his window to avoid a confrontation. And if he was so afraid of a confrontation that he rolled up the car window, then why did he leave the car?

Sorry, but you have zero physical evidence that Martin doubled back and attacked Zimmerman and zero evidence of what went on in Martin's mind.

You have only Zimmerman's ever-changing word.

[sabrina 1]

130. You forgot one huge important piece of evidence.

Guess what it is! Blows your whole crazy theory away, and probably the reason Zimmerman ended up being charged with murder.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

131. You won't get a response.

That poster has been tombstoned....

[CatWoman]

60. my head just completely and earth shatteringly

fucking exploded

[Tommy_Carcetti]

61. Thank you, I thought for a minute I was the only one appalled. nt

[CatWoman]

62. next he'll tell us Trayvon will appear as a hologram

at the Apollo.

makes as much sense as that other bullshit he posted.

[NoGOPZone]

65. No, I noticed it too

However, I don't like to directly address posters who display reasoning that tortured.

[stevenleser]

63. Each time there is a new Trayvon thread, a member of MIRT should be assigned to babysit it.

Guaranteed at least 2-3 trolls like this one will be infesting the responses.

[Generic Other]

70. Mine did too

Hope we didn't get bone and tissue on each other!!!! It's gonna be a mess to clean up!

[CatWoman]

74. LOL!!

GO

[Fawke Em]

93. Unlike Zimmerman's light gray T-shirt, which

seemed to have been freshly laundered since it had no sign of blood, bone or tissue on it.

[slackmaster]

3. Re: #3, I don't see any mention in the transcript that resembles telling Z not to exit his vehicle

I believe he was already out of the vehicle when the dispatcher told him "We don't need you to do that."

http://phoebe53.wordpress.com/2012/03/26/zimmerman-911-call-transcript-trayvon-martin/

[Tommy_Carcetti]

6. I went ahead and edited as to that one issue.

As I mentioned to the other poster, in the long scheme, I don't think it matters when he was told not to follow.

[RiseFromBelow]

12. It doesn't matter

It doesn't matter but not for the reasons you seem to think. It's not illegal to watch someone, get out of your car, follow them or even talk to them. The "suggestion" from the dispatcher wasn't an order and the dispatcher wouldn't be able to give an order anyways. What matters is that Zimmerman has documented evidence of being beaten and Trayvon didn't have a mark on him other than injured knuckles and the gunshot wound to the chest. Zimmerman couldn't have hit Trayvon at all let alone first. The guy that throws the first punch started the physical confrontation and is responsible for the outcome.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

16. Who threw the first punch may be in dispute....

But Zimmerman's original story wasn't of a long, protracted verbal argument that devolved into a fistfight.

It was that Trayvon surprised him from behind, shouted at him "You have a problem with me?", then Zimmerman responds "No" and then Trayvon starts hitting him.

All of this after Trayvon has been chased by a stranger for reasons clearly unknown to him. All of this 300 feet from the safety of his house.

In order for you to believe from Zimmerman's original story that Trayvon was the aggressor, you would probably have to assume that Trayvon was some sort of lunatic who went out of his way looking for a fight. Which nothing of his past history appears to indicate being the case.

[uppityperson]

22. From a post downthread, it seems he does believe that.

[RiseFromBelow]

25. Who said there was a long verbal argument?

No, it was brief exchange of words followed by the assault. Who suggested it was a long verbal argument? Again, why wasn't Trayvon at home by the time the 911 call finished? Why didn't the encounter occur there rather than near Zimmerman's truck? Trayvon ran and the only way he could have been that close to the truck at the time of the encounter is if he circled back to confront Zimmerman. There's no other rational explanation. I suppose you might suggest Zimmerman dragged the bigger Trayvon back to his truck? Maybe aliens beamed Trayvon from his house to the area of the truck?

[uppityperson]

28. No, there are other ways to be in that location. Perhaps he hid and waited to see what

would happen. Your explanation is not the only possibility, but you seem tied to showing Trayvon as a pugnacious thug. And you are also logically wrong in this part:

What matters is that Zimmerman has documented evidence of being beaten and Trayvon didn't have a mark on him other than injured knuckles and the gunshot wound to the chest. Zimmerman couldn't have hit Trayvon at all let alone first. The guy that throws the first punch started the physical confrontation and is responsible for the outcome.

Zimmy could have grabbed Trayvon, could easily have thrown the first punch into, lets say, his chest or stomach. Unless you believe that every time someone is hit there is a mark? Zimmy could have grabbed Trayvon, or wrestled him down, or a number of other things without causing marks, beyond that gunshot wound.

[RiseFromBelow]

32. No evidence

There is absolutely no evidence of any other injuries on Trayvon. Nothing according to those that have seen the autopsy report. Keep in mind the prosecution has to prove he's guilty. Zimmerman doesn't have to disprove every crackpot theory that people come up with that might make him seem guilty.

[uppityperson]

33. Zimmy doesn't have to defend from every crackpot theory? Hahahaha. thank you MIRT. eom

[Daalalou]

55. No other injuries... including on his knuckles

He had one small abrasion below the knuckle on his left ring finger. Hardly the wounds to his hands you'd expect from someone pummeling another person.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

31. Not from you, but some have speculated....

...that there was a longer back and forth shouting match and one of them said something to "set off" the other to cause it to turn physical. But Zimmerman's original story doesn't claim this; Zimmerman's account essentially argues an immediate, premeditated ambush by Trayvon, which logically I just don't understand.

And I don't know where you are coming from as to why the incident didn't occur near Zimmerman's truck. It didn't happen near Zimmerman's truck because there would be no reason for Trayvon to go to Zimmerman's truck for safety.

As for the timing issue, I don't see how this proves Trayvon's culpability. I don't know if you've ever been chased, played hide and seek, tag, etc. But if you are being chased and "lose" someone, sometimes you slow down. Sometimes the reason that you are "lost" is because you are hiding somewhere to keep out of plain sight until the coast is clear. Simply claiming that Trayvon should have already been home at the end of the 911 call isn't evidence that Trayvon was planning an ambush of the strange man who had been chasing him seemingly out of the blue.

[Daalalou]

54. Why wasn't Zimmerman back at his truck?

If Zimmerman was really walking back to his truck, why hadn't he arrived back there? The altercation occurred much closer to his truck than to Martin's home. Zimmerman had 3 to 4 minutes from the end of his 911 call to return. Martin had about 30 seconds from the end of his phone call with DeeDee before the screams began. Who had more time to reach their destination?

In addition, Zimmerman lived in the complex and had been patrolling the streets for two years. Martin was visiting a complex in which all the units are identical. Who had an easier time knowing how to get around? It's totally conceivable to me that Martin might have gotten a little lost while running in the dark, in the rain, and had to stop to catch his breath and get his bearings.

And Trayvon wasn't bigger. According to the autopsy, he was 5'11", which is only 2 inches taller than Zimmerman. And he weighed less, 25 to 50 pounds less (I've seen Zimmerman's weight as 185-200; the autopsy recorded Martin weighing 158).

[FarPoint]

26. Your are incorrect regarding the Police Dispatch ...it was not a " suggestion"

He was told by a sworn LEO. ..not to pursue ....you make it sound like the police dispatcher was some waiter suggesting a fine wine for dinner.

[slackmaster]

30. It wasn't a lawful order. Zimmerman was under no legal obligation to follow the advice.

It won't matter in the trial, if there is one.

[FarPoint]

36. Yes it was a command.

Also. Zimmerman deliberately omitted telling the Dispatcher he was armed with a loaded weapon. That was more essential than what he did report ..that Martin looked supicious. The Officer would of immediately called for back up and issue a Stand Down command.
Zimmerman cherry picked his relayed information.

[slackmaster]

39. Please cite an applicable Florida statute to back up your claim

It was PHRASED as a suggestion, and even if the dispatcher had said "Please don't do that" or "Don't do that" it would still carry no legal weight.

Prove me wrong if you can.

[FarPoint]

104. Prove to me that we all can disregard the direction of an officer as desired ...

Especially when one is armed with a loaded weapon.

[slackmaster]

110. Officers can give ORDERS to people only under very limited circumstances, such as emergencies,

in traffic, and when someone has been placed under arrest. In general we are free to do as we please. It's unfortunate that so many people, and I certainly don't mean people of any particular political persuasion, honestly believe that police have the authority to arbitrarily order people around.

Especially when one is armed with a loaded weapon.

What difference does it make whether or not an officer on the other end of a phone connection is armed?

Prove to me that we all can disregard the direction of an officer as desired

Ninth Amendment

"The enumeration in the Constitution, of certain rights, shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people."

You have the right to disregard instructions from a police officer, or from anyone else, except where the person has been granted special authority by law. THAT is why I challenged you to provide a citation from Florida statutes. You couldn't do it, because there isn't one.

[FarPoint]

111. Well...if you practice what you preach and advocate...

You'll be sitting in jail for failure to comply or something along those lines as you obviously have an unrealistic view of the law and how it works. Maybe we can do a DU fundraiser and place money on your books.

Oh' You never did respond to my point regarding Zimmy not being forthcoming with the Dispatcher when he called the Sanford Police to report his delusional perception that the teenager looked suspicious......

You know; the fact he, Zimmy, was armed with a loaded weapon when in pursuit of Martin whom he ultimately gunned down an murdered. If Zimmy would of been forthcoming when on the phone with the Dispatcher and shared such a serious detail, guaranteed the Dispatcher would of called for back-up and boldly order Zimmy to Stand Down.

Zimmy is a sick, delusional vigilanti... it's that simple.

[slackmaster]

112. Your reply is presumptuous nonsense. You imply that Zimmerman broke a LAW by not following advice,

but you are unable to cite which LAW.

There is no offense called "failure to comply or something along those lines." Interfering with an officer is surely a crime, with definitions and prescribed punishment. But not following advice from a dispatcher, phrased as a suggestion, could not possibly rise to the level of interfering with an officer.

You never did respond to my point regarding Zimmy not being forthcoming with the Dispatcher when he called the Sanford Police to report his delusional perception that the teenager looked suspicious...

Please cite what Florida statute you believe would require someone calling the police to disclose to the dispatcher that he or she has a weapon.

The LAW is only what the LAW says, not what you think it is or what you think it should be. I think you have a badly distorted view of the relationship between the government and the governed. Here's the key: If you can't find a law that SPECIFICALLY prohibits a particular act, that act is ALLOWED.

You know; the fact he, Zimmy, was armed with a loaded weapon when in pursuit of Martin whom he ultimately gunned down an murdered.

He had a permit to carry a loaded weapon.

If Zimmy would of been forthcoming when on the phone with the Dispatcher and shared such a serious detail, guaranteed the Dispatcher would of called for back-up and boldly order Zimmy to Stand Down.

You have a vivid imagination, but whatever would or would have not happened makes no difference in the legality of anyone's actions.

[frylock]

97. oh good. new meat.

do your duty, MIRT.

[varstal110]

135. Physical altercation

Not all hits make marks and on top of that the real story could go that Zimmerman caught up to Trayvon, pulled out his gun and Trayvon saw an opportunity, took it and started hitting Zimmerman before Zimmerman grabbed the gun and shot him. Whatever the situation, Zimmerman had no right to pursue Trayvon as he had already talked to a dispatcher, he caused the situation to reach a deadly level and needs to pay the price. On a side note, Trayvon wasn't new to the area, he knew where he was going and the conversation with the girlfriend points to him being freaked out. Based on the tapes, Zimmerman had already made up his mind that Trayvon was up to no good and that he was going to take matters into his own hands. It just doesn't make sense for a 17 year old to confront, and just wildly attack someone he doesn't know so close to home.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

9. He was 17 years old.

He was still a kid. I was a kid when I was 17 years old, and so were you.

But going back to Option B not making any sense, I'm sorry, it doesn't. Continuing to run home does make sense. Those were the only two realistic options at that point. And if you are a kid who has done nothing wrong yet you have some strange man chasing you, you do not decide to turn it into an ambush and attack your pursuer so close to your home. Don't bullshit me and tell me that is somehow a reasonable response that a rational person would have made.

[RiseFromBelow]

17. Oh, I agree with the running

Oh, I agree continuing to run home would make sense yet Trayvon's body was found far closer to Zimmerman's truck than the house he was staying at. Again, listening to the 911 call there was plenty of time for Trayvon to have gotten home before Zimmerman even got off the phone with the dispatcher. Why didn't he? Obviously, he decided not to for some reason. Think for a minute. A young man recently suspended from school, sent away by his mother, forced away from his girlfriend and forced to live with his father and his girlfriend, is likely feeling a bit...pugnacious for the lack of a better word. Add to that someone watching, following and most annoyingly for a young man, judging him. Do a quick google for 17 year olds and assault. It's quite common, unfortunately, for teenage males to commit assault and even murder. Don't try and sell me this "he was 17 years old" as some kind of reason why he wouldn't have decided to teach the man watching and following him a lesson.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

19. There's a difference between feeling pugnacious and being downright idiotic.

If Zimmerman had seen him walking down the street testing the door handles of parked cars (regardless of whether or not he was staying in the neighborhood) and Zimmerman then started chasing him, then maybe I'd buy into your story.

But there's been no evidence that Trayvon was doing anything wrong that night. Yet he's followed and then chased by a stranger for reasons unknown. He's got no gun, no knife. The reason for the suspension that you bring up had nothing to do with violence and occurs everywhere, from inner city high schools to rich suburban prep schools. There's no history of unprovoked violence on Trayvon's part that I've ever heard. The height difference isn't that marked and Zimmmerman's bulkier than him. Why would anyone needlessly pick a fight in that situation, especially so close to safety? It makes no sense.

[RiseFromBelow]

27. Only crime

AFAIK the only crime committed that night is when Trayvon assaulted Zimmerman. Neither one did anything illegal until that moment. Watch the surveillance video. Trayvon does not look like a skinny guy. Granted, the loose fitting clothes may make him appear bulkier than he was. BTW, it is NOT normal for students to get suspended even once let alone 3 times. It just isn't normal.

[Quixote1818]

34. Suspended for pot vs a person with a long history of violence, are you fucking kidding me?

Think about what you are saying. So hitting a cop and your girlfriend and being fired for bullying fellow employees IS normal but smoking pot and being late a few times isn't? Un-fucking believable.

Fact: Trayvon was 12 lbs lighter than Zimmerman.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

35. You'll have to prove that Trayvon assaulted Zimmerman first.

You're making a huge leap of logic here. And you are accusing someone of premeditating an ambush against someone who had just been chasing him for reasons unknown to him. And I'm telling you that just doesn't make sense when someone is so close to home.

I'm not a betting man, but if you tell me that Person A has no prior history of violent behavior and Person B has been arrested for assault against a police officer and had a restraining order taken out against him by a former girlfriend, my money's on Person B as more likely being the aggressor unless there is a game changer thrown into the situation.

So where is the game changer?

[MattBaggins]

98. Would you care to bring up Zimmermans violent past

or does that only count for the black kid?

[broiles]

13. Troll alert! Troll alert! Somebody help!

[JustAnotherGen]

20. I want him/her

To answer my question below first.

Zimmerman's daddy or mummy should be given a chance to explain themselves - if indeed its his daddy or mummy.

[ProdigalJunkMail]

43. i guess calling people 'troll'

is acceptable...not a fan of alerts but this is one of those cases where someone should step up.

sP

[Iggo]

44. Can you please edit that?

It's poor form.

[FarPoint]

108. Excellent fielding of foul trolls.

Thank you.

[leftynyc]

14. He was on his way to

where he was staying when zimmerman jumped him (you only have zimm's word that Mr. Martin jumped him and I think he's full of shit - see how that goes?) and you are also full of shit when you say that Mr. Martin was bigger - he may have been taller but was outweighed by at least 30 pounds. You zimmerman defenders are all the same - just finding any nonsensical reason to trash the person who was unarmed and doing nothing wrong and still wound up dead. You repulse me.

[JustAnotherGen]

18. Why would a Private Citizen

do that?

<blockquote>Trayvon took of running and THEN Zimmerman left the truck in order to keep sight of him. Again, it's very clear on the 911 call. </blockquote>

Zimmerman that is - why would he not put his tax dollars to good use and allow the Police (who are trained and paid to do a job) do their job?

[uppityperson]

21. How was Trayvon bigger than Zimmerman? You keep saying that, what do you base that on?

[Quixote1818]

23. How would Zimmerman lose sight of him? And Martin was not bigger than Zimmerman.

Look at the map, there is no place to hide and they ended up in a fight on the sidewalk 20 feet from any buildings directly on the path to Martin's house. Martin has zero history of violence and was known as a "mama's boy". Zimmerman had a history of violence and bullying. He was actually fired for bullying a minority and arrested for hitting a police officer. His ex-girlfriend said he was physically abusive. Clearly Zimmerman is a fucking nut-case, idiot with a long history of anger and violence and you believe him?

Trayvon was only 5' 11" tall and 158 lbs. Zimmerman was 5' 9" and 170 lbs so Zimmerman out-weighted Martin by 12 lbs.

[FarPoint]

29. Zimmerman neglected to inform the Officer- Dispatcher

That he was also armed with a loaded Glock 9 mm ...That fact would of sent a firm " Stand Down" order from the officer.

[Rex]

38. And another racist troll bites the dust.

I cannot wait to see GZ face hate crimes! The FBI is going to ROAST his ass and all you racist trolls can do is watch and cry about it like babies.

[Kingofalldems]

7. Here they come

[Rex]

40. I love watching trolls get shitcanned.

The GZ case is making them foam at the mouth mad!

[Tommy_Carcetti]

41. I actually wanted him to answer my question though.

Namely, how exactly did it make sense that Trayvon chose to intentionally ambush someone who had been chasing him for reasons he clearly did not know why.

And what the game changer was that would have turned someone with no past history of violence into the aggressor against someone who did have a past history of violence.

[Rex]

56. I don't think he would be able to answer that question

it would compromise the trolls intentions. You are spot on imo. Strange we have an ordinary kid (something that is driving a certain group insane) that runs into an extremely aggressive man (which is ignored completely) with a past for violence that is armed with a lethal weapon...gets out of his car (to pursue) and end up murdering the kid.

Sometimes things are really that simple.

[shimonitanegi]

8. I think Zimmerman didn't know that

Trayvon was on the phone...
Zimmerman's story contradicts Trayvon's girlfriend's sworn testimony.

[Life Long Dem]

10. I don't think much matters before they fought

That's when Zimmerman said he feared for his life and defended himself. Maybe Zimmerman's behavior was wrong in pursuing Trayvon as a suspect but not illegal. Whether Trayvon was doing nothing wrong before the incident is really irrelevant in my opinion. Trayvon also did nothing wrong the day before. But the fight and resulting broken nose is when the self defense law kicks in.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

11. It's more of a matter of his original story not making any sense.

And if he lied to police the very first chance he got, then it calls into doubt his entire story.

He's tied to that story. Maybe it wasn't made under oath, but the first story he gave is the least likely to have been altered by subsequently discovered facts.

I wonder if Zimmerman even knew that night that Trayvon was staying in the complex and that his house was only 300 feet away from where the shooting took place.

[goclark]

24. Good question

How long had Zimmerman been doing his "Watching" in that same area and did he have to be trained to do his job?

I am still stuck on why he didn't obey the command of the Officer -- but guess that is OK since the "OK to Carry Your Gun" laws were written to help people like Zimmerman use the gun on ( IMO) people that look like Trayvon.

[Rex]

37. Actually it does in a huge way.

Right before GZ murdered the kid, what leads up to the killing matters a lot.

[hfojvt]

42. are you sure about the 300 feet?

Because it seems to me that another fact is not in dispute.

Zimmerman's call to the police lasted about 4 minutes. At the two minute point on the call, Zimmerman says "sh*t, he's running". Then Zimmerman stays on the phone for another two minutes.

In those two minutes Trayvon could have walked the 300 feet home (if it was 300 feet, of that fact I am not sure, not having heard that it was measured). 300 feet is only 100 yards. It would take me no more than 15 seconds to run 100 yards at top speed (when I was 17 I could have done it in less than 12) I can walk a mile in at most twenty minutes, which is 17.6 times 100 yards. Meaning I can walk 100 yards in one minute and 8 seconds.

If the 300 feet is accurate, then it is beyond dispute that Zimmerman could not possibly have caught Trayvon, because Trayvon had a two minute head start.

Of course another thing is probably true. At least in my view, if you are being followed by some threatening person, you do NOT want to lead them to your home. You do NOT want them to know where you live. (In fact on Zimmerman's call, he does not want to give out his home address because he is worried Trayvon might be able to hear it (as he says "I don't know where this guy is&quot )

But it is usually easy enough to cut through a neighbor's yard (maybe all the way through) and slip in your own back door undetected.

As for your other speculation about what Trayvon would or would not do, whether he would attack Zimmerman as asserted. In my experience, there are many young males who are quite confident in their own ability to win a fight. And Zimmerman's injuries and position on the ground would tend to show that Trayvon was not wrong in thinking he could win a physical confrontation.

But if Trayvon did not hide, then how otherwise do you explain how Zimmerman catches him in a 300 foot race (or even a 300 yard race) when Trayvon has a two minute head start?

[Tommy_Carcetti]

53. I would have to go beyond the undisputed facts for speculation as to the timeline.

The purpose of my original post was to call into question the logic of Zimmerman's original story. That he was ambushed suddenly by Trayvon and almost immediately attacked with very little verbal run-up to the fight.

Perhaps Trayvon hid in the bushes. Perhaps he slowed down. Or, if Zimmerman's original story is to be believed, perhaps he used that time to plan out a spot where he would ambush Zimmerman and beat him down. BUT if the latter is to be believed, it does not change the original undisputed facts that Zimmerman chased Trayvon during a period where Trayvon had no guilty conscience, and in such situations human nature has flight taking precedence over fight when one is so close to safety.

I think you are overanalyzing not wanting to lead an attacker home. Houses have locks, phones in which to call the authorities, and let's not forget Trayvon was not living alone.

[hfojvt]

66. but the two minutes is an undisputed fact

it's on the tape of Zimmerman's 911 call which I have listened to/watched a couple of times. Trayvon walks past Zimmerman as Zimmerman is on the phone and says "he's checking me out".

Although now I do not remember if Zimmerman left his truck before or after he says Trayvon is running, but either way Trayvon is some distance ahead of him already and then starts running at the two minute mark of Zimmerman's 911 call, and Zimmerman stays on that call for another two minutes.

If the 300 feet is accurate, then another undisputed fact is that Trayvon could have easily made it home in those two minutes.

Flight does not have to take precedence over fight if one is confident in winning the fight.

The facts simply show, again, that Trayvon did not run home, because in two minutes he could easily have gotten home even if home was 1,000 YARDS away, much less 300 FEET. (one has to be quite slow to not be able to run a 440 in two minutes and a 440 is 1,320 yards.)

[Daalalou]

68. Home is a place where the only person present...

... is a 14 yo boy. Trayvon didn't have a key (no keys were found on his person), so the 14 yo boy would have to let him into the house. Do you think Trayvon would have wanted to lead a creepy guy chasing him there?

You're making a big deal of Zimmerman stopping and talking to the 911 operator 2 more minutes, giving Trayvon a head start, but there's no way Trayvon could have known that. As far as he knew, the guy was still following him.

Meanwhile, please answer this: why hadn't Zimmerman arrived back at his truck in the 3-4 minutes after his 911 call ended, since that's where he claims he was going?

[Daalalou]

58. Your point supports Trayvon

You write, "Of course another thing is probably true. At least in my view, if you are being followed by some threatening person, you do NOT want to lead them to your home. You do NOT want them to know where you live. ... But it is usually easy enough to cut through a neighbor's yard (maybe all the way through) and slip in your own back door undetected."

That presumes that Trayvon had a key. He may not have. In fact, we know he didn't have a key. The police report which documents what he had on him mentions no keys. Therefore, to get in the house, he would have had to ring the doorbell and have his future stepbrother let him in.

So Trayvon, by going straight home, would have led a creepy guy to a house in which the only occupant at the time was a 14 year old boy, since Trayvon's father and father's fiancee were out to dinner. And you wonder why he didn't go home?

And again I ask, by the same logic that you ask why Trayvon hadn't arrived home, why hadn't Zimmerman arrived back and re-entered his SUV? I have yet to have a Zimmerman defender answer that question.

[hfojvt]

79. the two minutes is enough time to get home

I did not wonder why he didn't go home. I said, he probably would not want to lead a threatening person to his home, but I would be surprised if all doors were locked (further, most fancier homes have garage door openers, one gets into the house by knowing the code)

As to why Zimmerman did not get back to his vehicle. First, I don't have a timeline there or a distance line. Zimmerman gets out of his vehicle and jogs after Trayvon (or maybe runs, but I cannot see a person sprinting while they have a phone to their head and are talking in it. You need to pump your arms and use all your breath at top speed (athough it is also possible Zimmerman had a hands free device)).

Then he loses sight of Trayvon (or so he claims to the police) so he is kinda wandering around looking for him. Then at some point he is told "we don't need you" to follow him. But he still stands there for a while or walks around looking while he is talking to the police. So how far is he from his SUV? 100 yards? 200 yards?

Then the call to the police ends.

How long after that does the confrontation take place? Two minutes? Less? Five minutes?

So if he is wandering back to his SUV at a leisurely pace, still looking around for Trayvon, wondering "where did he go?" then a minute might not get him halfway back to his SUV.

Too many unknowns. How far was he from his SUV and how long after his call ended before the confrontation happened?

But the easy answer for me is that he didn't go back to his vehicle, but continued to LOOK for Trayvon. Not to follow him, because he didn't know where he was to follow, but to look for him. That he perhaps expected the kid to be running away, since he ran earlier, and if you look down the street and do not see him, you walk up to the nearest intersection and look both ways. So that later you can tell the cops "he was going east on Olympic". But now I am trying to remember the map, because I did not see very many intersections.

[Daalalou]

82. I agree; I think he continued to look for Trayvon

I think that's the best explanation for why Zimmerman hadn't arrived back at his truck. In addition, on the 911 call he originally agreed to meet the police by the mailboxes; then changed his mind and asked them to call when they arrived instead. To me, that also suggests he planned to continue to look for Martin.

Here's another thing: Trayvon had no way to know that he had 2 minutes to get home. He runs, but remember, he is in an unfamiliar area, and he knows the other guy has a vehicle. He has no way of knowing the guy in on the phone with the police dispatcher. He also knows that the only person home is his younger stepbrother-to-be. In that scenario, it would make the most sense to hide.

[grasswire]

46. you know, George.....the kind of troll that was sent to this thread...

......just makes me feel more antipathy toward you. Each new lie elicits more disgust.

[Rex]

48. The FBI is going to flambe him.

And we will get to watch the racist trolls come here in mass, foaming at the mouth with rage. Just like they always do.

[Spoonman]

47. Option B defies all logic and human nature?

It may not make sense to you, but it is what happened (with I'm sure some slight variation).

It is the ONLY feasible scenario, and is supported by the facts.

Trayvon was a 6"1" 160 lb football player in excellent physical condition.
Zimmerman is a short fat fuck and was sucking wind less than 100 yards from his truck.
There is NO WAY Zimmerman's fat ass could have ever caught up to him!

Trayvon's phone call to his girlfriend clearly demonstrates that Zimmerman did not "run him down".
Trayvon was talking on his cell phone with his girlfriend when she heard Trayvon ask "Why are you following me?"

Trayvon stopped running, waited on Zimmerman, then confronted him.

Given all the known the facts, I cannot fathom how anyone with any sense of logic could surmise any other scenario.

The evidence further demonstrates Trayvon commenced to giving Zimmerman an ass whooping. (justified i might add)
Unfortunately two wrongs do not make a right, and Trayvon suffered the ultimate price.

I'm not defending Zimmerman, nor condemning Trayvon, but had Trayvon continued running to his house as you outlined in option A, there would have never been a shot fired.


An additional edit to consider - Zimmerman was not told not to follow, the dispatcher did not tell/order/command Zimmerman not to follow him. That has been distorted by numerous people to somehow assert it to have been a "lawful order".

911 dispatcher:
Are you following him? [2:24]

Zimmerman:
Yeah. [2:25]

911 dispatcher:
OK, We don’t need you to do that. [2:26]

Zimmerman:
OK. [2:28]

There has been so much erroneous bullshit intentionally created and spread by the media and activist that there is no way Zimmerman will ever get a fair trial.

I find it very difficult to understand how so many people here that are adamantly opposed to the death penalty because of "flawed" or limited evidence and or "flawed" juries, but want Zimmerman hung without all the evidence being presented.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

51. You're going beyond the undisputed facts and into areas of some dispute.

Not saying you are necessarily incorrect on certain things, but the point of my OP was to point out glaring deficiencies in Zimmerman's story based solely on undisputed facts.

Zimmerman's original story was that he was ambushed, out of the blue, by Trayvon. And I just have a simple question on that story, and that is "Why?" Why would someone chose to hide out and ambush a potentially dangerous individual instead of logically seeking to seek safety?

It's not as though Zimmerman witnessed Trayvon commit a crime and chased him off, and Trayvon then felt a need to ambush him in order to intimidate him. Trayvon had done nothing wrong that night, you know it and I know it. He was being chased by Zimmerman and most likely had no idea why. So why would Trayvon then turn the tables and immediately turn into the aggressor? It doesn't make any sense.

[joeglow3]

87. Really?

You have never had this happen to you? I remember walking out of a bar and three guys were backing their car out slowly. I stopped and told him he still had plenty of room. He, and his friends got out of the car and tried to start a fight (chased us to our cars). I have had a few encounter along these lines where someone is clearly looking for a fight or is willing to get into a fight at any opportunity.

Granted, those occasions where I exprienced this are few and were much more prevalent when I was a teenager or in my early 20's. Thus, while I understand it makes no sense, sadly that does not stop some people from doing it anyway.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

92. Different context though.

You weren't doing anything out of the ordinary, and unfortunately probably came across three aggressive drunks who, yes, may have been looking for a fight.

Trayvon was placed in a situation where he could reasonably believe his safety was at risk from a stranger. Had he been far from safety and backed into a corner, throwing punches would be a very natural and understandable reaction.

But if we are to believe Zimmerman's original story, he lost Trayvon. Yet Trayvon supposedly came back to attack him without further provocation. Despite being so close to the relative safety of the house where he was staying.

Of course, when Zimmerman told this story to police, I wonder if he knew that Trayvon was a lawful guest in the community and that he was staying only 300 feet from where he shot him. My guess is that he didn't know.

[Spoonman]

101. I'm sticking with the facts

You're going beyond the undisputed facts and into areas of some dispute

Please explain what is "in dispute".

glaring deficiencies in Zimmerman's story based solely on undisputed facts

Your 6 "undisputed" facts are way too simplistic and narrow to formulate an accurate picture of what happened.

You left out the most important indisputable facts relevant to the case.

1. The eyewitness statement that Trayvon was on top of Zimmerman kicking his ass. (this is the only statement that has credibility, and has not wavered) and is supported by A, B, C and D below.
A. The physical injuries suffered by Zimmerman that are well documented by medical reports.
B. The physical evidence of grass staining on Zimmerman's clothing
C. Abrasions on Trayvon's hands
D. Forensic wound analysis of the gunshot wound

2. The recorded phone call with the non-emergency dispatcher where Zimmerman states "Oh crap, I don't want to give it all out. I don't know where this kid is". (He had lost sight of him)

3. Time log of ALL calls relevant to the situation including the call between Trayvon and his girl friend.

4. The ample time for Trayvon to get to his house to avoid this, but didn't.

Zimmerman's original story was that he was ambushed, out of the blue, by Trayvon.

I can't answer that question, and your assertion is somewhat embellished.

Zimmerman never claimed to have been ambushed "out of the blue", his statement to investigators was that he was returning to his vehicle, when Martin approached him from his left rear and confronted him.

His story has been slowly but surely corroborated by the physical evidence, and eye witness testimony.

Of course, as with everything else in this case, the embellished versions have become the "facts" for most.

Why would someone chose to hide out and ambush a potentially dangerous individual instead of logically seeking to seek safety?

Instead of trying to infer that it didn't happened that way simply because YOU don't find it to be a logical decision, realize he had more than enough time to get to his house as demonstrated by the time line of the phone records.

So why would Trayvon then turn the tables and immediately turn into the aggressor? It doesn't make any sense.

Testosterone?

Trayvon did not seek safety by going home, he did not continue to avoid Zimmerman by walking away from him.

Given ALL the facts at hand, it is apparent the Trayvon decided for whatever reason to confront Zimmerman and become the aggressor.

You and I have no clue why he did what he did. We can only look at the facts and accept them for what they are.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

102. All the physical evidence merely does is establish that a struggle took place.

It does not necessarily establish any context within that physical struggle, i.e. who struck who first.

From what I read, there was more than one eyewitness to the event, and accounts differ. As is typical in eyewitness testimony. I would not necessarily place a god-like emphasis on eyewitness testimony.

Yes, the timeline is somewhat of a murky matter, but as another poster pointed out, you also have to wonder why it would take the same amount of time for Zimmerman to allegedly cover less distance trying to walk back to his car. Unless.....Zimmerman wasn't being forthright to the dispatcher.

And I know you dispute my argument about what is and is not a logical decision and appear willing to write off the absurdity of Trayvon premeditating an attack on Zimmerman as a matter of testosterone, but in conjunction with what we know about Trayvon, it's a stretch. I guess there may be a first time for everything, but still, there appears nothing in past instances to support a premeditated aggression by Trayvon. Whereas the same cannot be said about Zimmerman.

And yes, Zimmerman alleges Trayvon attacked him out of the blue. According to Zimmerman, he was walking back to his car, Trayvon surprised him from behind, shouted at him, and then attacked him without provocation.

Again, this is not to speculate on how a physical altercation between Trayvon and Zimmerman actually took place, but rather to raise questions on Zimmerman's first and initial story to police on how it occurred. And if Zimmerman's story at trial deviates from this initial story, it will mean Zimmerman lied to police, and you then have to ask yourself why he lied to police.

[Spoonman]

103. You obviously missed your calling........

And I know you dispute my argument about what is and is not a logical decision and appear willing to write off the absurdity of Trayvon premeditating an attack on Zimmerman as a matter of testosterone, but in conjunction with what we know about Trayvon, it's a stretch.

If you can figure out what goes through the mind of a seventeen year old, you have fame and fortune awaiting you.

We all know you cannot (neither can I, and I tried with my son), and that is my entire point!

You, along with millions of others have convicted Zimmerman already.

[Daalalou]

105. And millions of others have convicted Trayvon

I'll admit it: I'm anti-Zimmerman. From the first time I heard his story, it didn't add up to me. Why would anyone who supposedly had his head repeatedly bashed against a sidewalk turn down medical attention? So that probably does color my view, but IMO, more evidence convicts rather than exculpates Z.

But it's the rare person who (at least on public forums and comment sections!) who says, "I don't know what happened yet, and I'm waiting for all the evidence." Most people have taken a side, either for or against Z.

And to take Z's side is to automatically convict Martin. To say you believe him means that you believe Trayvon assaulted him out of the blue (and is therefore the criminal and aggressor in the incident), and that Zim had no choice but to shoot. You can't get around it; unless you say, "I don't know," you've convicted one or the other of the two people involved in that incident.

[Spoonman]

109. Very good points

I'm am still in the undecided camp.
I am really trying to analyze every aspect of the case, and keep an open mind.

I will say though that the evidence is certainly beginning to align with Z's version of the story.

As this happens I see more and more "conspiracy theory mentality".

Such as the "Trayvon logically would not have done this or that".

Zimmerman is a lard ass, and NO WAY NO HOW could have outrun a 17 year old football player. (That's logical).

If Trayvon took off running, as Z stated, he had ample time to get home WAY before fat boy could have caught up to him.

It is not that difficult to imagine a 17 year old coping an an attitude and bowing up to "some asshole", I did it at 17 and thank heavens only got my ass kicked.

Z was definitely in the wrong, and suffered from wannabe a cop issues. He did not break any laws by following Trayvon, and I feel incited to confrontation.

My gut feeling is that Z confronted Trayvon in a rather unfriendly manner, Trayvon got pissed off and began smacking the piss out of him. Shit went south from there.

[Daalalou]

114. You're wrong about the facts

Zimmerman was NOT a lard-ass. He had lost a lot of weight since the 2005 mug shots that were the first public photos of him. He looked like he was pretty fit in the police video taken the night of the shooting. He also exits the police vehicle in handcuffs unassisted--something that is difficult to do unless you're in pretty good shape.

Second, Trayvon didn't know he had ample time to get home. He had no way of knowing that Zimmerman was still on the phone with the dispatcher. He may very well have thought Zimmerman was right behind him. So he had a few choices:

1) continue home, ring the doorbell (he had no keys) and have it answered by his 14 yo future stepbrother, thereby putting the younger boy as well as himself at risk;

2) hide out until he thinks the threat is gone (this is what I think happened); or

3) confront the threat.

[Spoonman]

119. Assumptions Again.......

Point by point:

He looked like he was pretty fit in the police video taken the night of the shooting.

"Looked" - I've seen woman from 50 ft away that looked stunning, but up close looked like boot leather.
Z's weight was never listed, only his height. His weight has been estimated at 70lbs
At 5' 9" every BMI chart I' looked at puts him 20 lbs overweight.

He also exits the police vehicle in handcuffs unassisted--something that is difficult to do unless you're in pretty good shape.

Is this an expert opinion? How would you know?
Was the back seat of the police car more conducive to the ability to do this more than others?
HUGE assumption!

NEXT

1.

continue home, ring the doorbell (he had no keys) and have it answered by his 14 yo future stepbrother, thereby putting the younger boy as well as himself at risk;

First off, you are assuming what he was *thinking*.
Was the front door locked?
Was the back door locked?
Was there a hidden key somewhere on the porch?
Does he give a shit about his *future* stepbrother?
Tons of assumptions here.
I would highly doubt he would have the gone through the in depth thought process you outline if indeed he was "terrified".

The FACT is that he didn't go home, and had more than enough time to get there regardless of what he was thinking.
We know this because he was shot outside his house, get it?

2.

hide out until he thinks the threat is gone (this is what I think happened)

OK, so he hides out and Z finds him, what next?
a. Z begins to question him and Trayvon becomes the aggressor - Z has broken no law, and Trayvon is subsequently justifiably killed
b. Trayvon gets pissed off and steps out of hiding to confront Z, becomes the aggressor and is subsequently justifiably killed
c. Z shoots him in cold blood, smashes his face against something to break his nose, rolls around in the grass and slams his head into the concrete causing the abrasions.


3.

confront the threat

a. By confronting the "threat" I will assume you meant to say Trayvon stuck Z, and thereby becomes the aggressor and is subsequently justifiably killed
b. Z shoots him in cold blood, smashes his face against something to break his nose, rolls around in the grass and slams his head into the concrete causing the abrasions.

[Daalalou]

125. My response

At 5' 9" every BMI chart I' looked at puts him 20 lbs overweight.

185-200 lbs at 5'9" classifies as overweight BMI, but not obese. However, BMI is not always an accurate assessment of fitness: "Athletes sometimes get the short end of the stick when it comes to BMI results. Because BMI is based on height and weight, muscle mass isn't taken into account and muscle-bound athletes like football players, body builders and softball players often test at overweight or obese levels." Source

ETA: You made some pretty huge assumptions in the post I was responding to: "Zimmerman is a lard ass, and NO WAY NO HOW could have outrun a 17 year old football player. (That's logical). If Trayvon took off running, as Z stated, he had ample time to get home WAY before fat boy could have caught up to him."

How do you know that? If you hadn't seen the 2005 mug shot when Z was very overweight and your first image of him was either the police video or Z at his arraignment, I doubt you would have come to that conclusion.

He also exits the police vehicle in handcuffs unassisted--something that is difficult to do unless you're in pretty good shape.

Is this an expert opinion? How would you know?
Was the back seat of the police car more conducive to the ability to do this more than others?
HUGE assumption!

It's based on an expert opinion. I watched a retired police officer (sorry, can't remember the show) make observations about the police surveillance video when Zimmerman arrives at the station. He noted that Zimmerman moved easily and fluidly throughout the video, but most tellingly when he exited the car. Most people use at least one hand, on the door handle or the seat, to give them leverage when they're getting out of a car. When you're handcuffed, you don't have a free hand to use, so usually a police officer will help you out. The retired policeman pointed out that not only did no one help Zimmerman get out, he didn't need anyone's help.

===============

You're right, I don't know if the doors were locked, or if there was a hidden key. But going home, even if home was easy to enter, opens up the possibility that Z is still following and would see where he was staying. In addition, both his dad and the future stepbrother's mother said the two boys were close, and Trayvon was buying Skittles for him. So yeah, I think there's evidence he'd be concerned about leading Zimmerman home where the younger boy was waiting.

a. By confronting the "threat" I will assume you meant to say Trayvon stuck Z, and thereby becomes the aggressor and is subsequently justifiably killed
b. Z shoots him in cold blood, smashes his face against something to break his nose, rolls around in the grass and slams his head into the concrete causing the abrasions.

I think you're lying when you say you haven't taken a side. Z's injuries weren't consistent with his head being slammed against the concrete, and T's injuries (to his hands) weren't consistent with beating someone. Furthermore, confronting the threat doesn't presume violence--"What are you following me for?!!" is confronting it. You're the one suggesting that means Trayvon struck first, and we don't know that.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

115. But would you agree that Trayvon deciding to ambush Zimmerman out of the blue doesn't seem logical?

"Z's version of the story" is just that--that he was acting in total self defense, that he was in essence blind-sided by Trayvon after having chased, and then lost, him.

I understand that 17 year olds sometimes act foolish and stupid. Lord knows I probably did a few foolish and stupid things when I was 17. But typically foolish and stupid things by 17 year old boys are done outside threatening situations, situations where one's life is in danger. You usually find stupid and foolish things by 17 year old boys when they are goofing off in front of friends.

When a stranger is chasing you and you have no idea why, I don't care if you are 17 or 70, one's natural reaction is not to pretend you are in a video game. Shit becomes very real. Zimmerman and Trayvon were not playing a friendly game of capture the flag. Contrary to the cliche, it is not typical for the hunted to become the hunter.

Your "gut feeling", assumingly based on your read of the evidence, is that Zimmerman confronted Trayvon, angry words were exchanged and the situation deteroriated into a fist fight, perhaps with Trayvon striking the first blow. That's a fair reading of the evidence, and quite plausible.

However, that is not "Z's version of the story." "Z's version of the story" was that he was walking along and was surprised by Trayvon, and without any real verbal provocation, Trayvon started attacking Zimmerman. So what exactly is the evidence that aligns with that, as opposed to what your gut feeling is?

And if the story that you believe is most reflected by the evidence is not the story that Zimmerman told police, you have to ask yourself why would he lie?

[Spoonman]

122. You are still trying to place YOUR logic into the mind of a 17 year old

I knew, and know of, numerous 17 year olds that think they are bullet proof badasses!
They like to get in fights, and have zero common sense.

However, that is not "Z's version of the story." "Z's version of the story" was that he was walking along and was surprised by Trayvon, and without any real verbal provocation, Trayvon started attacking Zimmerman.

Z has fully admitted that there was a verbal exchange.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

123. What Zimmerman story are you going off of?

I'm looking at his original story, the one he told police almost immediately after shooting happened. And in that version of events, there was barely any verbal exchange. The only thing--only thing--that Zimmerman claims he said to Trayvon was the word, "No" after Trayvon allegedly asked, "Do you have a problem with me?" And then almost immediately after that one two letter word, Zimmerman claims Trayvon started beating him.

Perhaps Trayvon might fall into your catagory of "numerous 17 year olds" if we had heard of a long history of Trayvon getting into fights at school, having a criminal history of violence, etc. But there's none of that. We would have to believe that Trayvon had a sudden, never before seen Incredible Hulk like transformation from what appears to be a relatively reserved kid into a MMA badass who likes to take potentially deadly threats head on without justifiable provocation.

At certain points, logic becomes a universal thing.

In this case, there was someone who liked "to get in fights and has zero common sense", but most likely and judging on past history, that person wasn't Trayvon. That was Zimmerman.

So I'll just ask you one question: Do you believe Zimmerman's original story, and why or why not? And if not, why do you think Zimmerman would have lied to the police?

(Note, I'm not calling you a troll, a racist, an idiot or anything of that sort, nor do I believe that. I'm just trying to understand where you are coming from, because it's clear right now we are seeing the same thing very differently and I'm just naturally curious to find out why.)

[Spoonman]

126. His original story......

First off, Zimmerman's statements made to police on the night of the incident have never been released.
So you are basing your entire argument on something you cannot verify.
What has been "released" was actually leaked by someone within the Sanford Police Department.
Was it complete, or an abbreviated version? Is it accurate?
No one say for certain.

Your statement from here and other posts:

1. "he was in essence blind-sided by Trayvon after having chased" position
2. "was that he was walking along and was surprised by Trayvon, and without any real verbal provocation"
3. "And in that version of events, there was barely any verbal exchange"

You are trying to impose some sense to your "logic" by dismissing the very "facts" you use to support it.

A verbal exchange most likely occurred (we have no proof as of yet to the content).
We can probably all agree on that.
However, the duration/word count really doesn't matter.

Physical altercations occure EVERY DAY starting with nothing more than a scowl and a loud "WTF?"!
That is the real world we live in, and that is the way I am looking at this situation.

You ask what exactly is the evidence that aligns what my gut feeling is?

Pretty simple, Z's injuries and T's injuries are both consistent with the story we have, the gun shot analysis is consistent with the story we have, and the statement from the only eyewitness that actually saw the altercation is consistent with the story we have.

In this case, there was someone who liked "to get in fights and has zero common sense", but most likely and judging on past history, that person wasn't Trayvon.

Perhaps Trayvon might fall into your category of "numerous 17 year olds" if we had heard of a long history of Trayvon getting into fights at school, having a criminal history of violence, etc.

Really?
You (along with the rest of the world) need to realize that the pictures paraded up and down main street of Trayvon are not an accurate reflection of the young man we are talking about.
Those "innocent pictures" were taken when he was roughly 10 years old, and his appearance, and demeanor had changed significantly.

How much past history do we really know?
His juvenile record has been sealed, and his parents will never paint him to be anything less than perfect.
I do know from the experience with my own son (now 21) you DO NOT get suspended for truancy or for being tardy unless you are already a problem student!

He was on suspension when he was shot in February, for possession of a 'marijuana pipe' and a baggie with drug residue.
He was suspended in October for graffiti, and after he was caught with a 'burglary tool' and a bag full of women's jewelry.
He was also suspended once for skipping school and tardiness.
There are numerous photos of him from his twitter account that show him tattooed up, and references to violent behaivior and drug dealing.
He had affiliations with people who demonstrated gang activity, and there is some evidence that he might have been dealing drugs on a small scale.

Sounds to me no different than mine and NUMEROUS other kids I know and have known.

Escalating behavioral issues are apparent.

I'm not blaming Trayvon for this, I'm simply pointing out some relevant facts.

Keep thinking a 17 year old just would not do something "like that".

SARASOTA, FL. – A jury has found 17-year-old Shawn Tyson guilty of murdering two British tourists in Sarasota last year

http://www.mysuncoast.com/mostpopular/story/Shawn-Tyson-found-guilty-sentenced-to-life-for/lHz1RC6BZUOHxxHZ3IkD7w.cspx

My mind will be made up once I see conclusive proof either way, currently Z's story has very few holes.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

129. I think you are glossing over the fact that Trayvon was doing nothing wrong that evening.

Last edited Tue May 22, 2012, 08:38 PM - Edit history (1)

There's been no evidence whatsoever that Trayvon was doing anything except walking home from the 7-11 after buying some candy and an iced tea. None. On the 911 tapes, Zimmerman himself never said that Trayvon was peaking into windows or cars or anything. All we heard from him was that he was supposedly "up to no good."

So immediately we have to question Zimmerman's judgment. Immediately.

But let's line up the negatives as to the two players in this situation.

Trayvon Martin
*Suspended from school after apparent non-violent behavioral issues
*Had THC (not a natural aggressor) in his system, we don't know from when
*Evidence that he was engaged in a physical scuffle with George Zimmerman, witnesses statements contradict as to whether he was on top or on bottom.

George Zimmerman
*Prior arrest for battery on a police officer, charges were dropped after pre-trial diversion
*Subject of a restraining order by a former girlfriend
*At least one documented instance of having harassed an ethnic minority in his workplace, resulting in his termination
*Would frequently pepper 911 over neighborhood issues, mostly minor non-emergency concerns
*Chose to actively pursue Trayvon Martin on the night in question, despite no clear evidence of any wrongdoing on Martin's part
*The only individual armed with a weapon on the night in question
*Carried his weapon on his person while engaged in neighborhood watch duties in contravention to normal neighborhood watch SOP
*Was recorded on tape that evening saying "These assholes always get away" and "Fucking punks" (and I'll give Zimmerman the benefit of the doubt that he said punks and not something more inflammatory)
*Evidence that he was engaged in a physical scuffle with Trayvon Martin, witnesses statements contradict as to whether he was on top or on bottom.
*Chose not only to display his weapon on the night in question, but to pull the trigger and shoot Martin
*Had several prescription drugs in his system on the night in question

You line those two up, and it is pretty clear that the tendancy towards rash and reckless behavior skews in favor of Zimmerman more so than it does Trayvon.

And sure, physical altercations sometimes begin with little more than a scowl or a short word or two, but rarely do they almost immediately turn violent unless the perpetrator has a known history of violent behavior. Which simply did not exist with Trayvon Martin. Whether it existed with George Zimmerman, I don't know.

Listen, I think there certainly was a physical struggle between Zimmerman and Martin. Who threw the first punch? I have no idea. My guess is there was some extended verbal argument that deteriorated into a physical fight. But the notion that Trayvon Martin hid out and ambushed Zimmerman and almost immediately began beating him after an extremely minimal verbal interaction just doesn't jive with the facts. And when that doesn't jive with the facts, it means that Zimmerman lied to police. And you have to ask why.

Finally, a question and answer.

Q: What does Shawn Tyson have to do with Trayvon Martin?
A. Absolutely nothing.

I don't know the details of the Shawn Tyson case, I don't know Shawn Tyson's background or any prior criminal history on his part, but one thing is for sure. He is a totally seperate person from Trayvon Martin, and shame on you for needlessly trying to draw a connection where you damn know there isn't one.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

106. I cannot read minds, that much is true.

However, I can consider the likelihood of a situation when viewed against an alternate situation. And I can make judgment as to which one of dueling possibilities is more likely in the face of logic.

Ya know, Occam's Razor and shit like that.

We either can believe that Zimmerman, who had already been following/chasing Trayvon, continued to follow Trayvon after he was instructed/suggested not to by dispatch, and when he finally encountered Trayvon, there was some sort of altercation that eventually turned physical (while not exactly clear as to who threw the first punch) and the end result being Zimmerman shooting Trayvon.

Or.....

We can believe Zimmerman's original story, that he had been chasing Trayvon, lost him, was walking back to his car when Trayvon (who had done nothing wrong and did not know why this man had been chasing him) chose to double back, ambush Zimmerman and almost immediately start punching him, all of this instead of heading back to the safety of his home.

[Daalalou]

59. Trayvon wasn't that big, and Zimmerman was no longer fat

Trayvon was 5'11" and 158 lbs, according to the autopsy.

Zimmerman was 5'9" and heavier, but no longer fat -- 185-200 lbs is what I've seen. He had lost a lot of weight since his 2005 arrest. Most young men handle weight loss not simply by dieting, but by working out and lifting weights. He looked pretty buff in the police video. (He looked much thinner at his arraignment 45 days later, but I imagine that stress did that to him).

[Sancho]

57. The ambush story has always bothered me the most...

If you look at the map above, and if you saw the pictures of the walkway between the buildings on tv; there is almost no place to go except down the path from the North to South (above). If Zimmerman was following, he may well of lost sight of Trayvon after coming in the main gate because the top row of buildings from Retreat View Circle have several walkways. Once on the path home, there are no other paths and it looks pretty wide open.

I honestly think that Zimmerman chased Trayvon down that path and confronted him. The ambush story seems contrived, but I can easily imagine that Trayvon fought back.

[H2O Man]

75. Powerful.

Logic rules.

Recommended.

[Fawke Em]

78. Psst... his dad wasn't home.

He and the fiancee had gone out for dinner. That's why he didn't know Trayvon was gone until the morning.

Just making a point... continue.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

81. Noted.

But I believe his step brother was home. And the house would offer locks, walls, hiding spots and a phone to call 911 if necessary. Or at least call his dad and tell him to come back home because he was just chased by a stranger.

Him deciding to suddenly ambush his pursuer still makes no sense to me regardless.

[Vattel]

113. I don't know what happened, but a high school kid wanting to beat the crap out of some creep

following him hardly defies logic. I was once followed and harassed by two guys in Ireland and after I got to safety and dropped off my stuff (which included passport and airline tickets home) I went out and hunted them down and confronted them asking if they were looking for trouble. It was idiotic on my part, but I was young and stupid and pissed off. Luckily no fight ensued. I don't know if Martin did something similar or even more aggressive, but it's hardly contrary to human psychology to suppose that he might have.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

120. Zimmerman doesn't just allege a verbal confrontation, though.

He claimed he was physically ambushed.

It's one thing to go back to someone and ask, "What's your problem?" and a verbal argument ensue. Perhaps that verbal argument could deteriorate to the point of becoming physical, or perhaps it's left at that.

It's another thing to hide out, sneak up behind someone, say, "You have a problem with me" and after a simple, "No", immediately start wailing on a complete stranger who had previously put you at risk, especially when you are still in the zone of danger. Trayvon was not out of danger simply because he had momentary lost Zimmerman.

I'll maintain that Zimmerman's original story just does not add up in the context of the situation. There are stupid and foolish kids, yes. But stupid and foolish does not necessarily equal utterly and completely moronic, which Trayvon would have to be to believe Zimmerman's story to police.

[Vattel]

127. You overestimate the maturity and prudence of teenagers.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

128. To the contrary, I think you underestimate them.

They may act stupid and foolish at times, but very rarely are they utterly moronic to the point of gross recklessness.

[vaberella]

132. The defied logic comes in because of other circumstances you omitt in his situation.

1. His little brother/cousin was at home waiting for him to get home.
2. He had asked his father for permission to leave the house. He's not a kid who's gonna start a fight just based on the permission.
3. Then there is the permission coupled by the fact he was at his father's place because he was suspended from school and was grounded. He wouldn't want to get on his parent's bad side to extend his punishment.
4. There was an All-Star game he wanted to go and watch. I don't see a kid passing up a basketball game so he could get into a fight which could lead to future problem's for him. He'd sooner high tail it out of the area and run home which was just yards away.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

133. Good point as to No. 4 ....

Also, let's not forget to believe Zimmerman's story, you would have to create a radical shift in the narrative.

Zimmerman gets out and pursues Trayvon. He is taking, for lack of a better word, aggressive action. He then supposedly loses him. And then comes the shift, that Trayvon, the hunted, the pursued, becomes the hunter, the pursuer. The concept of interia can be applied to an extent to real life situations, and I think this could be one of them. Why is there such a radical reversal in a span of a minute or two?

Also, phone records show that Trayvon was on the phone with his girlfriend during this time. If Trayvon is planning a sneak attack on Zimmerman, why would he alert himself by talking on the phone?

And one last hole in the Zimmerman story: he told police he initially got out of the car to check the street sign. This is the neighborhood watchman of the community, who has lived there for a significant amount of time, and this community only has three streets. He doesn't know the name of the streets in his own community? That stinks right there.

http://www.theyoungturks.com/story/2012/3/30/2334/44994/Diary/George-Zimmerman-Caught-Lying-to-the-Police

[Vattel]

134. You guys are guessing, and that's fine.

None of us know whether Martin attacked Zimmerman; so the best we can do is make educated guesses based on the limited information we have.