538: "We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate"

[Attorney in Texas]

Micah Cohen:

Carly Fiorina. She’s sitting with an 8 percent chance of becoming the Republican nominee — would you buy or sell her stock?

Harry Enten:

I’d sell. Let me be the old curmudgeon in this group; I continue to believe that a traditional candidate will emerge as the ultimate nominee. I believe her record at HP will eventually bring her down, among other things. That said, I wouldn’t put her chance near 0. Perhaps closer to 3-5 percent. Better than Trump.... Let me point out a few things: 1. I think we need to realize that this is still September. Other more establishment candidates did very well last night. 2. Fiorina self-funded somewhat in 2010. Not exactly someone who relied on the traditional infrastructure.

Nate Silver:

Yay, an actual disagreement! I’d at least hold Fiorina’s stock at 8 percent, and maybe buy ... hold is totally an option ... the thing about Fiorina is that it seems a little off to classify her as an insurgent/outsider. If you’re the CEO of a major company like HP, you’re a part of the establishment. Unless you’re a real weirdo. And if you run for Senate as a Republican in 2010, and run as a surrogate for a bunch of Republican candidates, you’re part of the ​*political*​ establishment too.

Simone Landon:

Who’s Walker? Was he even there last night?

Enten:

Buy. At 4 percent? I’d buy. ... His debate performance was a ball of meh, but he’s the governor of a fairly large bluish-tint state. He won election three times in four years. He’s conservative.

Silver:

Yeah, it’s a buy at 4 percent....his favorability ratings are pretty good and he has “enough” money to survive for a while.... I’m not saying that his stock hasn’t diminished. But I think there’s been an overreaction. A 25-to-1 shot? Sure. I’ll take a few of those tickets.

Cohen:

Jeb Bush at 39 percent: buy/sell/hold?

Enten:

Selling ... 39 percent is way too high.... {Fair price is} somewhere between 20-30 percent. His super PAC still has a ton of money. He leads the endorsement race (if barely). He’s ahead of most of the other traditional candidates in the polls (for whatever that is worth). And I don’t think he is too moderate for the party at this point.

Silver:

Yeah, sell. I don’t really get why he’s at 39 percent. ... {Fair price is} 25 percent? 30 percent?

Cohen:

THE DONALD: 13 percent. Buy/sell/hold?

Enten:

Sell.

Landon:

we all sell on The Donald

[Aerows]

1. Anybody putting any of their eggs in the Jeb basket

is asking for disappointment.

Democrats obviously can't stand him, but Republicans can't, either, if Republicans I have talked to in the South are anything to go by. I have *resoundingly* heard "the last thing we need is another Bush or another Clinton in the White House".

I know I am in no way unique, either. Honestly evaluate what you hear from everyday people in your own life.

[JI7]

2. jebs hopes of winning was always to split the crazy whole

The not as crazy unite behind him. That's how McCain and romney won the nomination even though many in their party didn't like them.

The problem for jeb is he isn't doing well enough for the not so crazy to unite behind him. And instead they are split also among rubio kasich jeb and a few others.

[Aerows]

3. His last name

is an albatross around his neck that he won't be able to get rid of. People may end up pulling the lever for him in the seclusion of the voter's booth, but very few Republicans want to go on the record as supporting him.

The Bush name is toxic, and for damn good reason.

[forthemiddle]

5. I live in a conservative part of Wisconsin

So what I am hearing is probably slanted a little towards Walker, but otherwise it's the same message. No more Cintons, No more Bushs!

The Republicans seem to be following that sage advice, will the Democratics follow suit?

[Aerows]

6. I can't speak for the huge Metropolitan areas

but everywhere else, it's the same refrain. No Bushes and no Clintons.

I'm rather shocked that there is a contingent of political thinkers that believe either of them will be elected.

The MSM seems to think if they keep preaching the world is flat, climate change isn't real and Hillary or Jeb will win, somebody outside of the beltway will believe them.

I don't get it.

[spanone]

4. how did they pull that out of their asses?

[joshcryer]

7. +1