538: "Yeah, Jeb Bush Is Probably Toast" (UPDATED - lots more stories on the epic Bush fail)

[Attorney in Texas]

Link; Excerpt:

Bush received poor reviews for his debate performance from political commentators of all stripes (Republican, Democratic, partisan, nonpartisan, reporters, “data journalists”), many of whom also suggested that his campaign might soon be over. The straw poll1 we conducted among FiveThirtyEight writers and editors agreed; Bush’s average grade was a C-, putting him at the bottom of the 10-candidate group.

CANDIDATE AVERAGE GRADE HIGH GRADE LOW GRADE
Marco Rubio...........A-..........A............C
Ted Cruz................B+.........A...........D
Chris Christie..........B...........A-..........D
Carly Fiorina...........B-..........A-..........D
Ben Carson.............C+.........A-..........D
John Kasich.............C...........B-..........D
Mike Huckabee........C............B...........D
Donald Trump..........C...........B+.........D-
Rand Paul...............C-...........B-..........F
Jeb Bush.................C-..........B...........F

I agree with the group (I gave Bush a C-). Bush lost a probably ill-advised confrontation with Marco Rubio over Rubio’s absences from the Senate. Bush’s closing statement seemed stilted. He was the setup for a Chris Christie applause line about fantasy football. And for much of the debate, he was an afterthought, receiving the second-lowest amount of talk time among the candidates.
....
Bush’s “fundamentals” aren’t all that strong. He entered the debate with middling favorability ratings and polling at about 7 percent nationally. His endorsements have all but dried up: just two since Labor Day and none in the past three weeks, according to our endorsement tracker. His third-quarter fundraising totals were mediocre. This wasn’t a case like that of Hillary Clinton, who even at her worst moments was polling at 45 percent and had the overwhelming support of the Democratic establishment. ... Bush is running a conventional campaign. It’s not as though he has all that much grassroots support: Only 3 percent of his fundraising has come from small donors. Instead, Bush needs the support of Republican elites — and favorable media coverage — to signify to reluctant Republican voters that he’s a viable nominee. And ... before the debate, major Bush donors were fretting openly to reporters (not just swiping at Bush anonymously) that his campaign was in a potential “death spiral.” ... his problem isn’t a mere lack of “momentum”; his candidacy has always been flawed. Instead of being the most electable conservative — the traditional profile of the Republican nominee — Bush has never looked all that electable or all that conservative.

[Octafish]

1. I liked how Jebthro nodded his head as he talked.

Like it would make listeners agree with what was coming out of his mouth. LOL.



Guy may seem like toast, Tex, but he's from a family that should have been relegated to history long ago...

[freebrew]

2. ^^This^^

Love the Vampire reference.

[Attorney in Texas]

6. lol

[dixiegrrrrl]

9. Tis lucky, then, that Bush has "better things to do"

and may soon get a chance to do them.

[Attorney in Texas]

3. Politico - "Insiders: Bush bombed...In the ... GOP debate, the consensus was clear: Jeb Bush blew it

Link; Excerpt:

Jeb Bush blew it.

The former Florida governor was a ghost for most of Wednesday’s GOP presidential debate – and when he spoke up, he was swiftly and effectively counter-punched, most notably by Marco Rubio. As a result, he lost the opportunity to lift his sagging campaign, say insiders surveyed for a special edition of the POLITICO Caucus, our weekly survey of the top operatives, activists and strategists in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.

Nearly 60 percent of respondents said Bush lost the CNBC debate, botching his comeback opportunity and looking desperate in an attempt to attack Sen. Marco Rubio’s poor attendance record in the Senate. They offered their reactions immediately after watching Wednesday’s prime-time debate in Boulder, Colo.

“[Bush] looked opportunistic and desperate when he went after Senator Rubio on missing votes and after he walked straight into a crushing right hook,” said one Iowa GOP insider. “He also looked weak and ineffective. The exchange diminished an already failing candidacy.”

Added a South Carolina Republican, "Tonight's performance will do nothing to stop the downward spiral that his campaign is experiencing."

[Attorney in Texas]

4. Slate: "Jeb Died on That Stage"

Link; Excerpt:

Wednesday’s Republican presidential debate was critical for Jeb Bush. He had to show donors and voters that he was a fighter, with life in his campaign—that he could stand up to Donald Trump, take on Sen. Marco Rubio, and emerge as a front-runner for the GOP nomination.

In other words, it was do or die. And Bush died. The debate clock tells the whole story; next to Sen. Rand Paul, who fell to the bottom, Bush had the least speaking time of any candidate on stage... Bush might have cash reserves and support from family backers, but after tonight, he’s slipped to the second tier. He may not leave the race, but he’ll struggle to get traction.

[gratuitous]

25. It just makes me want to sing!

Oh I, I just died on the stage tonight
It must have been something I said
I just died on the stage tonight

Sing it, Jeb!.

[Attorney in Texas]

5. Huffpost - "Jeb Bush's Comeback Strategy Backfires At GOP Debate"

Link; Excerpt:

Jeb Bush sought to calm anxious donors with a comeback strategy focused on taking down rival Marco Rubio. But Bush's plan backfired badly on national television in the third GOP presidential debate.

Instead of generating much needed momentum, Bush's attack on his onetime protege raised new questions about his underwhelming candidacy in the primary contest he was once expected to dominate. And Bush's continued struggles highlight a deepening sense of uncertainty settling over a 2016 Republican presidential race that remains crowded and without a clear front-runner.

[Iggo]

38. I think they meant "deepening sense of certainty."

[Bucky]

7. So the two legacy pledges ain't making rush this year

Apparently even in the clown car party, you've got to earn it in America.

I look forward to the time when this nomination comes down to the one guy who's acting like a total idiot and the other guy who ain't acting

[Volaris]

8. Good let them decimate themselves.

It only makes our candidate for the General (whoever that may be, and compared to that crew over there Mickey Mouse would be fine with me) that much stronger.

[ProfessorGAC]

10. All We Need To Know

A post above says he got his butt kicked by Marco Rubio. If you let that know-nothing blowhard steal your lunch money, you're done.

[hibbing]

17. hahahaha

Love it, they are all a bunch of blowhards.

Peace

[RussBLib]

11. if we're lucky...

Jeb! goes down in flames, his little bruther Duh-bya gives him a lot of shit about it, Jeb! gets pissed off and starts spilling the beans on the Bush family.

A guy can dream....

[OldRedneck]

12. Don't celebrate yet

While the Iowa, NH, and SC caucus and primaries are getting all the attention, let's not forget Super Tuesday, 1 March 2016, when 13 states hold primaries. Then, throughout March, April, and May the rest of the states hold their primaries.

Primaries require a ground organization to: (1) Fulfill each state's requirements for getting on the ballot, and, (2) getting out the vote. For all his personal weaknesses, Jeb! has the backing of the GOP organization and they can get out the vote.

I expect Jeb! to fold, but, I'm not by any means counting him out and Trump in.

[Attorney in Texas]

13. Not celebrating yet. Just icing down the champagne in case we have anything to celebrate later.

[geek tragedy]

14. Rubio already took his place as the great establishment hope

he has no rationale for his candidacy.

Christ Christie minus Donald Trump = Jeb Bush.

[DuckBurp]

15. I'm not counting Jeb out yet, either.

Back in the 2000 election, I thought there was no way his brother could be elected president and look what happened. Don't MISUNDERESTIMATE the power and influence of the Bush family.

[AZ Progressive]

19. George W. had that "aw shucks" charm, someone you can have a beer with. Jeb Bush has none of that.

Charm is a very big advantage. Obama had charm and it was a big factor in his successful campaign. Ditto with Clinton and Reagan.

[7962]

24. Yes!

[Blue_Adept]

28. Have we heard any of this infrastructure being put into place to win in these places?

With a small Dem field, we hear about it more with Sanders and Clinton and the nods to O'Malley as well with his smaller but dedicated team.

But little in the way of how the ground game, the all important GOTV, for the primaries is going there. The whole point of primaries is to build a lot of that and enthusiasm so that once you get past the big events you're set to expand for the general.

I definitely get that it's happening with our top two on our side, but the R's seem more like it's all just showboating for debates.

[TexasBushwhacker]

37. I think Jeb! will hold out until Super Tuesday

He has over $100MiIlion in his Super PAC war chest. That can't be used for paying his campaign staff, but it can be used for ad buys. As we get closer to the primaries, he has far more for that advertising, even if it's not under his direct control (wink wink). Lots of interesting figures here:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/election-2016-campaign-money-race.html

[PoliticAverse]

16. Someone tell me when "probably" becomes "definitely". n/t

[Logical]

18. Do people here want Bush less than those other idiots? Not sure why this is good news. nt

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

26. Why is it good news? Because when voter turnout is low, Repubs tend to win more.

And the surest way possible to depress voter turnout in 2016 is to run Bush vs Clinton.

[Wash. state Desk Jet]

20. Jeb here Folks: ya'all can't be fooled this early on can ya 's ?

Oh the 40% cut back in spending. So look if you all know anything about my old man who is in it now, than you know he takes
serious issue with spending capital. I thought everybody knew the old man's a tight wad ! Once he got into the game his first order was to stop the spending,trim the budget.I haven't been yelled at like that since I don't remember when-it was more than 32 years ago though. Boy oh boy he came down on me but good.

Thats right folks the thunder was called down.

Even Trump he said, knows better than to throw money at the problem ! Come turkey time the old man says, things will come back around, and he said I'm not talking about quail.

And wait till everybody gets to see my butterfly collection , it's really really cool !

[NBachers]

21. Fading fading f a d i n g

[NonMetro]

22. Yeah, If JEB Wants It, He Better Start Buttering Up The Supreme Court - NOW!

[Wash. state Desk Jet]

23. !!! Hecka Cool Hop Along Jeb -

?list=PLaslVg0QUU4UWCPQQhg38o1TPeHHtqILB

https://www.yahoo.com/politics/hey-peeps-check-out-this-1288724778795062.html?soc_src=mail&soc_trk=ma

Hey @peeps! Check out this hecka-cool #Jeb! #Website!

Alyssa Bereznak
National Correspondent, Technology
October 29, 2015


A still from one of Jeb Bush’s #NoFilter videos. (Photo: Via YouTube)

Jeb Bush’s YouTube page, like that of any other presidential hopeful, is filled with clips that are meant to make him look good. There’s the moment he asked Trump to apologize to his wife during the Sept.16th Republican debate. And there’s an ad detailing his strong economic record in Florida. But then, uh, there’s also that playlist of videos titled #JebNoFilter.

As you might guess from its tragically hip name, the collection of short clips is meant to show off the former Florida governor’s more spontaneous, more human side. Sort of like that time Beyoncé adopted alter ego “Sasha Fierce” to promote her album — only exceedingly less glamorous.

[ladyVet]

27. My prediction for the nominee: Rubio

Yes, he's no better than the rest of them, but it seems like he can talk reasonably well, he's not bad-looking, as pukes go and that not showing up for work stuff? Media bias! Lies! He was there, I swear.

He's got a foreign name, his parents weren't born here, so the libruls don't like him. wah wah wah Yes, we know that makes no sense. Republicans, remember? Besides, this will get them the Hispanic vote, with that last name. Right? See, pukes aren't prejudiced, one of "those" people is in the White House.

Trump and Carson are too crazy. They're being pushed right now, because it gets the libruls in a tizzy, but the Koch brothers ain't stupid. Well, okay, they are, but they know who they want in office, and it's a guy they can pull the strings on. Not some wack-a-doodle that won't listen. Rubio will be so grateful, he'll do whatever they want.

I doubt Jeb even wants to be president. Too much work. More than being the governor! Look at how hard it was to rig the election for Shrub. That was work, people.

Being in office is a lot harder than people think. Running for president is even worse! I mean, you have to get up in front of all those cameras, and let mean people ask you questions. Sure, your peeps schooled you on the answers, but who could remember all that shit?

Shrub had it easy. He had all those people fixing polls, and putting operatives in place to steal elections, and the media helped him when he couldn't talk right. Daddy and Mumsy always did love him best.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

29. No way. He's a punk. And don't forget he's a LIAR....Parents

escaped Castro before Castro???

[Laura PourMeADrink]

30. Nate WAS saying not too long ago Jeb had - what? 80% range

probability of winning?? Cant find all that on his site anymore.

Even then, we knew more than he

[Deny and Shred]

33. That is the point to me, as well

Nate sure took long enough. He had Hillary in a waltz many months ago, yet silent on the GOP primary winner. He's been crowned with statistical reverence for the Obama call, yet given a pass for taking this long to make some calls about the Republican Derby field.

I always question the constants, co-effeicients and weightings in models. To think he has figured out bulletproof formulas for politics is foolish.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

39. just looked at the polling and the last time Jeb was on top was April - a poll

by Monmouth. He was ahead March and April - but not by much. Before that - people thought Romney would run and he was favorite. After April started the Trump rise.

So not sure what factors led Nate to ever pick Jeb with so much certainty - best I remember like 80 something % probability. Wish I could remember when I saw that.

[McKim]

31. Never Underestimate the Power of the Bush Family

Never underestimate the power of the Bush family, just ask Dan Rather.

[Attorney in Texas]

32. 538 follow up: "Jeb Bush’s Problem Is Jeb Bush"

Link; Excerpt:

No candidate’s net favorability — the share of Republicans who view a candidate favorably minus the share who view him or her negatively — has fallen more than Bush’s since mid-June, when Bush and Donald Trump entered the race. Here are all the candidates’ net favorability ratings over that span, in a chart we put together before Wednesday’s Republican debate.

Bush’s net favorability has dropped 28 percentage points since mid-June, while the average candidate’s net favorability declined by just 5 percentage points.

[hifiguy]

34. Maybe we can finally close the crypt on the Bush Crime Family

holding major public office? I devoutly hope so.

Good riddance to America's Borgias.

[Initech]

35. If we stop the BFEE here hopefully we can stop them for good!

[OhZone]

36. Jeb!?

I never understood how anyone could vote for him.

Did Hoover's brother stand a chance in the 30s?

Did Hitler's brother stand a chance after WW2?

How could anyone even consider him?