2012 Orwell Award shoo-in: For "unofficial" job stats turning huge reported losses into alleged huge gains, WI Gov. Scott Walker
2012 Orwell Award shoo-in: For "unofficial" job stats turning huge reported losses into alleged huge gains, WI Gov. Scott Walker
I googled and found two hits making Walker's handling of employment reports quite reminiscent of the handling of the chocolate ration plot point in George Orwell's "1984". An actual sharp decline sparked public proclamations of a huge increase for those who believe the Party over their own experiences.
The first hit is from a rightwing site post that claims the Bureau of Labor Statistics' report of a 34,000-job decline in employment during Walker's first full uear in office was "off" by 57,000, and that Walker actually added 23,000 jobs. Walker's source of information allegedly superior to that published officially by professionals who have been reporting employment for decades is raw data just submitted to Washington by Walker appointees. The BLS is scheduled to release a report on these data June 28th, three weeks AFTER the June 5th recall election.
The second hit is from the Bureau of Labor statistics report on the "QCEW"for 2010, including comparison of Walker's favored data source (the "QCEW"
with other state employment data sources.
WHAT'S YOUR OPINION?
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From http://www.redstate.com/brianfraley/2012/05/16/wisconsin-actually-added-jobs-in-2011-bls-survey-off-by-more-than-57000/ :
Posted by Brian Fraley (Diary)
Wednesday, May 16th at 7:50AM EDT
It turns out Wisconsin actually 23,321 jobs in 2011 (57,221 more than estimates suggested). ...
This data, is based on the replies of 96 percent of Wisconsin employers, not a survey of only 4-5% of them....
The numbes come from a source familiar to many economists but one that hasnt figured until now in the states highly politicized jobs debate heading into the June 5 recall election: the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). ...
State officials said they show a gain of 23,321 jobs (public and private) between December 2010 and December 2011, which represents Gov. Scott Walkers first full year in office.
That stands in sharp contrast to a commonly used and widely reported monthly jobs measure, the Current Employment Survey, which earlier this year showed an estimated loss of 33,900 jobs in Wisconsin for the same 12-month period. ...
(I)n this case, one set of well-publicized numbers (from the Current Employment Survey of businesses) put Wisconsin at the very bottom of 50 states in job creation during Walkers first year. These figures were based on a sample of 3.5% of the states employers ....
The other numbers, from the Quarterly Census, tell a more positive story, one the Walker administration is in a hurry to get out. ...
(I)ts highly unusual for a state to release this kind of data on its own before it is reviewed and officially released by the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics. The bureau, which has received and begun to review the new 2011 data from Wisconsin, isnt scheduled to publish it until June 28, several weeks after the recall election. ....
Secretary of Workforce Development Reggie Newson denied in an interview Tuesday that the early release of the data was an effort to shape public opinion before the June 5 election...."
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From http://www.bls.gov/cew/cewbultn10.htm#Coverage :
"Employment and Wages Online Annual Averages, 2010
The annual bulletin Employment and Wages contains employment and wage data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program aggregated by industry at the national, state, and county levels. ...
Introduction
Data contained in this publication represent the complete and final count of employment and wages for workers covered by State Unemployment Insurance (UI) laws ...
Comparison of QCEW employment data with other series
The BLS publishes three different establishment-based employment measures for any given quarter. Each of these measures-the QCEW, BED, and CES-makes use of the quarterly UI employment reports in producing data. Each measure, however, has a somewhat different universe of coverage and estimation procedure, and each produces a different publication. Other data series are briefly covered here.
Business Employment Dynamics
Business Employment Dynamics (BED) data are a product of the QCEW program. BED data are compiled by BLS from existing quarterly State UI records. Most employers in the United States are required to file quarterly reports on the employment and wages of workers covered by UI laws and to pay quarterly UI taxes. Quarterly UI reports are sent by State workforce agencies to the Bureau and form the basis of the BLS establishment sampling frame. These reports also are used to produce quarterly QCEW data on total employment and wages and the longitudinal BED data on gross job gains and losses. Other important BLS uses of the UI reports are in the CES program.
In the BED program, the quarterly UI records are linked across quarters to provide a longitudinal history for each establishment. ...
Current Employment Statistics
BLS and State workforce agencies cooperate in the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program. In this program, State agencies are responsible for preparing current employment estimates for the States and for many metropolitan labor market areas, while BLS is responsible for producing monthly employment estimates for the Nation. CES estimates of employment, average weekly and hourly earnings, and average weekly hours are derived from an employer survey of approximately 440,000 nonfarm establishments, selected primarily from the QCEW administrative records of UI-covered employers. The national and State industry CES estimates are then benchmarked annually to QCEW employment data. Supplemental sources are used in benchmarking industries that have workers that are not covered.
Current Population Survey
The Current Population Survey (CPS) is published monthly by BLS. CPS employment data are estimated from a survey of about 60,000 U.S. households, while QCEW employment data are summarized from quarterly reports submitted by 9.0 million U.S. establishments.
CPS counts employed persons, whereas the QCEW program counts covered workers who earned wages during the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. ...
QCEW data count separately each job held by multiple jobholders. CPS counts such workers once, in the job at which they worked the most hours. CPS counts employed persons at their place of residence; the QCEW program counts jobs at the place of work. CPS also differs from the QCEW program, in that it includes self-employed persons; unpaid family workers employed 15 or more hours during the survey period; and a greater proportion of agricultural and domestic workers. CPS data exclude persons under age 16, while the QCEW program counts all covered workers, regardless of age. ..."
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