Republicans Remain Divided as Democrats Unite

[RandySF]

It is a good time to review the unusual—maybe unprecedented—presidential contest, which exhibits striking fluidity and uncertainty, with a huge group of candidates on the Republican side, and an equally striking coalescence toward an early consensus on the Democratic side. Making predictions is folly at this very early stage, but it is not too early to examine conventional wisdom and some possible scenarios.

First, on the Republican side: Conventional wisdom—including most of the political scientists, pundits, professionals, and those in the betting markets—disdains the prospects of Trump, Carson, and Cruz, and puts Rubio in the driver’s seat. It is no wonder. History suggests that the party may flirt with an outsider but will end up with an establishment favorite. With Bush floundering and Kasich too much a compassionate conservative, Rubio is that man. And Rubio has the advantage of being young, Cuban-American, and just radical enough not to turn off the outside contingent.

<snip>

On the Democratic side, the path seems remarkably clear for Hillary Clinton, after the best two weeks I have ever seen for a candidate. Two new polls show Clinton trouncing Bernie Sanders by nearly 40 points in Iowa. She might well still lose New Hampshire, but as the Democratic race moves to South Carolina, where her lead is overwhelming, and on to Super Tuesday, where she would be the prohibitive favorite everywhere but Vermont, she is likely to end the contest effectively before the end of March. The endorsement of Clinton by Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, a major figure on the populist left, shows the striking degree to which elected officials are rallying behind her—including, by the way, the governor of Vermont—in a fashion far more sweeping than, say, Walter Mondale in 1984 or Al Gore in 2000. Endorsements are not everything, and the populism that has made the Tea Party right such a potent force is also a force on the left. But the anti-establishment fervor is notably absent on the Democratic side.

It is still reasonable to expect a close presidential election in the fall. It is not a coincidence that parties rarely win three consecutive terms, something that has happened only once since the 22nd Amendment limited presidents to two terms. An open contest to replace a two-term president is framed by the choice between more of the same and change, and Americans tilt toward change. That is why the Clinton team worries about Rubio, who physically embodies change, more than the other Republican candidates. But if one party has a long and bitter fight to choose a nominee, against a backdrop of a civil war between insurgents and insiders in Congress and elsewhere, while the other unites early behind a nominee who can stockpile money, leisurely plan a convention, and work to consolidate support from all party and supporter factions, that is quite a contrast heading to next fall.


http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/10/2016-outlook/412813/