Obama will lose the White Vote big in 2012

[cthulu2016]

Obama will lose the White Vote big in 2012. That sounds scary, but it isn't. All Democratic candidates are expected to lose the white vote big.

The last Democratic President to win the white vote was LBJ in 1964.

Obama had a perfect election in 2008. He ran the table. We got every break. The Republicans had lied us into a war that we then lost, by any sensible measure of winning and losing. And they created another depression, with the house of cards collapsing around us in full crisis mode on election day. The siting Republican president had approval numbers about where Nixon was shortly he resigned.

And McCain/Palin still won the white vote 55% to 43%. McCain won the votes of white women, 53% to 46% percent.


Exit polling showed Obama winning the male vote in 2008 49% to 48%, which is impressive. If we tie among men we win big.


The upshot of this is that a person will go crazy looking at polls unless she understands the underlying reality:

All in all, if Obama loses men narrowly and loses whites by 15% he would still win in a close election.

Tying among men and losing whites by 10% would be an Obama landslide.

[HockeyMom]

1. That says to me that women will be key

I've been reading that Romney has a lead with women now. I cannot possibly see how. Yet, Obama and Romney have not debated yet. Do women have that short memories? Did they forget already about the Republicans War on Women? I doubt it. Yes, jobs is a key issue, but your HEALTH trumps jobs. Businesses will go back to not hiring women again if women no longer have choices about their own health.

[cthulu2016]

7. I think we can dismiss that particular result

I also saw a poll that said Romney was leading among women, but there had to be a real defect in that poll because it also said that Romney was up only slightly among men.

The gender gap is real.

If Obama wins men he will win easily. If Romney wins women he will win easily.

[Control-Z]

20. Married women, is what I heard.

By 2%.

[SGMRTDARMY]

2. This old white man

will be voting for Obama.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

3. Old White men are his only winning demographic. And, there ain't enough of them.

The only interesting thing about this election will be when Obama is declared the winner. I'm guessing no later than 10pm Easter Time.

[undeterred]

5. 10pm on Easter?

What do you think is going to happen? A recount?

[Retrograde]

9. Even though polls won't close in the most populous state until 11PM Eastern?

The national media learned that after Carter/Reagan.

I expect Ohio and Florida will be too close to call on election day.

[mythology]

15. The media didn't seem to learn that lesson with Florida in 2000

I think we will be able to make an educated guess as to who will win the presidential election by 9 or 9:30 eastern time. Obama has viable scenarios that include possibly losing both Ohio and Florida if he manages to run well in other states like Virginia, New Mexico and others. Romney basically has to win two of Florida, Ohio and Michigan. Counting just the states that would only be lost in a complete blowout, I count roughly 219 electoral votes that are safe Democratic states. The number is a little off as I didn't look up the numbers after the latest census.

[Retrograde]

24. They sort of did, at least one lesson

They don't actually report vote totals as a rule, since most places can't release them that quickly - they report the results of exit polls, and generally ignore mail-in votes. In 2000 they reported the poll results (led, IIRC, by a Bush cousin) when they thought the polls closed, but forgot that one section of Florida was on Central time and thus the polls hadn't closed there, which is why they initially retracted, and the first preliminary results made it look like it was too close to call, which was when Gore retracted his concession. Then there were the Harris shennanigans, the Brooks Brothers demonstrations, the hanging chad debacles and the court cases. I watched a lot of the whole mess from abroad.

This year I expect a lot of provisional ballots to be cast in states that have been trying for voter repression, as well as a larger number of early voters where states allow it which should skew exit polls. I don't know how and when all states count absentee or mail-in votes: my state encourages voting by mail and according to the county registrar's website my votes for the June elections have already been counted.

The GOP learned one big lesson in 2000, though: he who shouts first and loudest is usually the one heard.

[hrmjustin]

21. Sorry 10 is too early. More like after 1 in the morning.

[BlueCaliDem]

4. Thank you for this analysis, cthulu. I know MANY Whites will vote for President Obama, but

we can't expect them all to. Not with the history we have in this country, and the inability of many to change their view on racial or social equality.

With the vast majority of the other demographics, from Asian, to Latino, to Blacks voting for him, he'll be able to squeak out a win, I guess. Remember, we only have democracy at the "lower" levels. We still have that discriminatory Electoral College, and it's only through that system can the Republicans continue to win power in our government.

[hrmjustin]

22. Just because they are not voting dem does not mean they are racsist.

However we are talking the gop so a good chunk of them are. But we can't just assume they are racsists. I know many good people who are regular people who vote gop and will this year again.

[BlueCaliDem]

25. I know, that's why I wrote "social" inequality, too.

I'm convinced not all are racists. Perhaps less than we tend to believe are. They just don't like his stance on same-sex marriage, our social safety net, fighting to make corporations and the wealthy pay their fair share, and helping the vulnerable in our society.

But some in the GOP are racist, just not those at the top. The race card is only played and used as red meat for the people whose votes they need to stay in power.

[treestar]

6. Faux Noise and such try to make that sound so big

Like Obama must lose if he does not get the white vote. Interesting how the white male vote is somehow so - big. Yet each white male only gets one vote.

[bhikkhu]

8. There's a White Vote?

[cthulu2016]

13. More than there is a women's vote

If a demographic "vote" means a reliable skew among a demographic then there is a white vote, though we are conditioned to not think of it as such.

There is a "black vote" as in, "getting out the black vote," because demographically black voters will go 85%-95% Democratic.

Since white voters have favored the Republican candidate by more than 10% in every election since 1964 it is fair to say that there is a "white vote" with a persistent and identifiable voting behavior, in the same way we talk about, "the black vote."

Women are much less fixed in voting behavior than white voters or black voters and we talk about "the women's vote."

So yeah, by the standards we use in talking about consistent voting demographics, there is a white vote.

[bhikkhu]

17. Interesting. I would have though age was more a determiner

...as I see much more predictable differences in people based on the young/old divide - but then observation is a poor substitute for statistics.

[cthulu2016]

19. Age was huge in 2008. Obama won young whites handily.

Your real-world observations are definitely in line with the 2008 exit polls.


I think Obama won young whites by 10% or more. But the older white vote is so skewed that even with winning that youth vote the overall was a 57-44 loss in the bigger demographic.

[jwirr]

10. Depends on what state you are looking at. Here in MN we are pretty white and we are very aware

that it would be disasterous to vote in a rwer. Up here in the NE we are going to get rid of Craavack as fast as we can. He is doing nothing that we want him to.

[cali]

27. well sure. Here in Vermont, the President is more popular than anyplace

else but D.C. and we're also mostly white, but overall the OP is correct.

[longship]

11. Good historic perspective

Thanks.

[MineralMan]

12. This old white man is voting for him, so he won't lose my vote.

This is over simplification.

[cthulu2016]

18. Oh MM...

Statistics presented as statistics are not an oversimplification. They are exactly what they are.

In 2008 Obama lost the white vote, but did well for a Democrat getting 44% of the demographic.

44% of white people is a very large number... plenty large enough to contain you and me and a lot of other old white guys who voted for Obama in 2008.

In a group of twenty random white people it would be crazy to assume (absent other evidence) that one of them voted for McCain, or for Obama. It is way too close to 50-50 to try to say anything about individual people.

But though too close a spread to use to pigeon-hole individuals, it is a huge spread as a national demographic reality.

[abelenkpe]

14. Our pasty family always has and always will vote democratic

I really don't know why any self respecting woman would ever vote for a republican. Nothing really pisses me off more than women who vote republican or encourage others to not vote democratic.

[bermudat]

16. He didn't have it in 2008, so what's the big deal?

[Honeycombe8]

23. WOMEN. There are more women voters than men voters. The Repubs made a mistake

in alienating women voters.

You can't win the Presidency without women and hispanic voters. You CAN win if you do well in both of those categories AND you win other groups, but you can't win if you lose those two groups significantly, no matter how well you do with other groups. Including whites as a whole and white men. That's my understanding, anyway. That is why the Repubs are working hard to keep hispanics from voting...and poor people generally (most of whom are WOMEN).

[hfojvt]

26. I don't consider 12% to be a BIG loss

Kerry lost the white vote by 17% in 2004, and Bush took 54% of the white vote in 2000.

[Life Long Dem]

28. It's nothing new but the media likes to play it up as something new.