Intrade predictions

[Marcia Brady]

Looking at the Intrade site for the Walker recall, it looks kind of gloomy. In general, how accurate has Intrade been in the past? (Really hoping they haven't been very accurate . . .)

[Johnny Rico]

1. Well, in the 2004 election they called every single state's electoral vote correctly.

They weren't as accurate in 2008, though. They predicted Obama would get 364 electoral votes.

He got 365.

So yeah, they're pretty accurate!

[Marcia Brady]

2. Ouch.

Maybe that just means they're due for a big loss??