Robert Reich: Supreme Court Ruling on ACA Expected Soon, Possibly Tomorrow

[Bolo Boffin]

https://twitter.com/RBReich/status/205839184802496513

Where's he getting his info from? I don't know. But if he's right, we have the summer blockbuster political event all ready for action, whatever the SCOTUS is going to do.

ETA: SCOTUSblog will be live blogging starting just before 10 a.m. Eastern. Their website is here:

http://www.scotusblog.com/

And they also have a Twitter feed I just found out about - @scotusblog - very appropriate.

EATA: And SCOTUSblog's live blogging reporter answered a lot of questions about this last Monday as it turns out:

http://www.scotusblog.com/2012/05/live-blog-of-opinions-sponsored-by-bloomberg-law-3/#more-145345

The consensus among court watchers appears to have the opinion released on the last day of the term, generally mid- to late June. June 1 is the formal last day for the majority opinion to be circulated throughout the Court, and June 15 for dissents. I imagine, along with Lyle, that every last second possible will be spent crafting these opinions. So I don't know where Reich is getting his info from, unless he's just guessing.

EYATA: As DrunkenIrishman points out below, Reich tweeted this last Thursday. So the "tomorrow" referred to is last Friday. I really don't know where he got that from. Even orders from the conference on the 24th (unless truly urgent) would wait until tomorrow the 29th to be released.

We are inside of a month of knowing, however. Nobody thinks they are going to put it off. We will know by the end of June.

Tomorrow is a day scheduled for the release of opinions, though.

[gateley]

1. Yikes -- how do you think it'll go?

[southernyankeebelle]

2. I bet the President already knows the outcome.

[elleng]

4. Sure, I'm sure the Supremes call the White House

in advance about important decisions.

[southernyankeebelle]

9. Listen they have back doors to the court. You may eat those words. But whatever don't choke we

surely don't want you choking on your sarcasm, right, LOL.

[MannyGoldstein]

10. Louis Brandeis used to discuss strategy and decisions with FDR

But I do think this is a different time for the court. We neither have FDRs nor Brandeis's.

[Drunken Irishman]

11. Sure...

Why not? He appointed two of the justices who presided over this case. I doubt he knows the 'official' ruling, but I bet he's heard which way the court is leaning. Remember, they voted essentially on this back in early spring, the day or so after hearing the case. So, it's not hard to imagine someone tipped him off back then what the initial vote was, or which way they were leaning - whether a clerk to a justice or someone close to one of the justices.

[bluestateguy]

20. James Buchanan was tipped off to the Dred Scott ruling before it was issued publicly

Not that that should give anyone any encouragement.

[Bolo Boffin]

3. I'm holding out for the ACA being upheld.

I know what Toobin is saying, but I read another article about how Kennedy and Roberts were both repeating a key argument for the upholding of the individual mandate, the uniqueness of the health care market. Health care isn't like the automobile market or the broccoli market for that matter. You can legitimately avoid purchasing an automobile or broccoli with no ill effect on your fellow citizens or the market itself. But the health care market you can't avoid forever. Even if you remain healthy, you could be in an accident at any moment, necessitating hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of health care. That cost would land on someone else if you couldn't pay. Enough people like that and prices for health care AND insurance rise for everyone. That's why the individual mandate is a legitimate tool Congress could constitutionally use to regulate this market.

Of course, a public option would have been nice and single payer even better. But the mandate is constitutional, and both Kennedy and Roberts were mentioning that argument in a way that wasn't derogatory (unlike Scalia's sarcastic broccoli comments).

[elleng]

5. Right,

I hope.

[underpants]

7. 6-3

http://www.democraticunderground.com/101620917

[gateley]

18. Yeah. Well. Public Option. Sigh.

As someone mentioned (albeit snarkily) that they'll keep it since it's a "windfall for the insurance industry" -- that may not be too far from the truth.

[Raine]

22. Yup agree, the insurance companies aren't about to lose this one

I'm sure they've paid off enough of the justices to make sure it goes their way and it's upheld.

[underpants]

6. 6-3 at worst

Scalia has to rule for it or his SC career becomes a joke

[jaysunb]

13. A "joke" for sure.

His own words:

Gonzales v. Raich) The court rejected the constitutional challenge in a 6-3 decision; the majority included both Kennedy and Scalia. In his concurring opinion, Scalia noted the commerce clause empowers Congress to regulate not only the "channels" and "instrumentalities" of interstate commerce but also intrastate activities that "substantially affect" interstate commerce, and that the constitution authorizes Congress to enact measures that are "necessary and proper" to effectuate its objectives when exercising authority under the commerce clause or any other enumerated power.

[GusFring]

14. "becomes"?too late. It'll be the typical 5-4 ruling. Struck down. nt

[MannyGoldstein]

8. The Rightists on the court have an agenda, and it's not jurisprudence

It's dystopian societal change. There's no other explanation consistent with Citizen's United as far as I can see.

Based on this, I'm not feeling optimistic.

[CTyankee]

15. hate to say it, but I agree with you, Manny...I just don't see how this will come

down on our side...

I hope both you and I are wrong...I really do...and I would welcome it...

[hughee99]

21. I'm not optimistic either...

but I think for this to be upheld, the court will have to rule for political reasons rather than basing their decision strictly on the law.

[Drunken Irishman]

12. That tweet from Reich was made on the 24th...

So, tomorrow would have been last Friday. It didn't happen.

[Bolo Boffin]

16. Hey, good point.

I just saw it retweeted into my timeline today.

Tomorrow is the next day that opinions are expected, though. Whether the ACA decision is among them, who can tell?

[Drunken Irishman]

17. I hope...

I'm tired of waiting and want to get it over with.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

19. Me too.

Bad news or good, let's get it over with.

Enough waiting already.

*sigh*