PRI The World: Why Texas May Become a Blue State

[pampango]

Texans are taking to the voting booths today. And… so what? Mitt Romney has the Republican nominee for president wrapped up. And we knew long ago that Texas would vote for any Republican presidential candidate.

But Texas might not be such a Republican slam-dunk forever. The state’s demographics are changing quickly. Texas is 37 percent Latino, and demographers say the state could be majority Latino in less than 20 years. And those Texas Latinos have been overwhelmingly voting Democrat. But that wasn’t always the case.

In 2004, about half of Texas Latinos voted to re-elect George W. Bush. Four years later, the Republican presidential candidate, John McCain, captured only 35 percent of the Texas Latino vote. That doesn’t make sense to Robin Lennon, co-founder of the Kingwood Tea Party, located just north of Houston. She thinks Texas Latinos are natural conservatives.

I went to a get-out-the-vote barbeque in southwest Houston, dubbed “Tacos & Votes.” There were about 150 people there, mostly Latinos. I met people like 36-year-old civil engineer Adan Gallegos, a US citizen originally from Mexico.

“I used to be Republican, but ever since they started the Latino bashing, I actually switched sides.”

http://www.theworld.org/2012/05/texas-may-become-blue-state/

I read some commentator's analysis a few weeks ago that if Texas goes blue it is over for republicans. California and New York are already blue and the right can't compete nationally if the three biggest states all go blue. It's a nice thought.

[Kolesar]

1. So the 'pukes are losing it in Northern Virginia and Houston

They have tons of money, but they are going to have to defend Senate seats and fight for electoral college votes in a huge number of states.

[Zalatix]

2. One has to wonder why any Hispanic person would have ever been Republican at all.

[ag_dude]

12. Religion/Abortion

As far as racial stereotypes go, Latinos are heavily Catholic.

[ieoeja]

22. Historically, Catholics voted Democratic.

Catholics are #3 on the Klan's hate list. Frequently reviled in the Bible Belt which is why most Church-State lawsuits early on were filed by Catholics. Strong supporter of Labor unions. "Irish need not apply."

Aside from the abortion issue the Church still leans Democratic. On the abortion issue the majority of Catholic lay folk are pro-choice. And the Church itself was pro-choice through quickening until a few years ago.

[ag_dude]

28. I'm talking about the latino catholics in south Texas, the context of the post

Last edited Wed May 30, 2012, 12:28 PM - Edit history (1)

Do you know many of them?

The Klan? Labor unions? Neither impact the group I'm speaking of much.

The Klan is more prevalent in the imaginations of northerners than anywhere latinos are a major percentage of the constituency.

Hell, Texas being a right to work state opens up low paying jobs to latinos.

And the Church itself was pro-choice through quickening until a few years ago.

Huh? When was the Catholic church ever anything but solidly against abortion?

[Fawke Em]

35. The Catholic Church was fine with abortion

as long as it was performed before quickening or ensoulment:

It was commonly held, even by Christians, that a human being did not come into existence as such immediately on conception, but only some weeks later. This view was strongly expressed by Saint Anselm of Canterbury (1033–1109), who said that "no human intellect accepts the view that an infant has the rational soul from the moment of conception."[14] In that view, early abortion was not homicide, the killing of a human being. A few decades after the death of Anselm, this became part of Catholic canon law in the Decretum Gratiani, which stated that "he is not a murderer who brings about abortion before the soul is in the body."[14] While not classified as homicide, early abortion was considered gravely wrong: Thomas Aquinas, who accepted Aristotle's theory that a human soul was infused only after 40 days for a male fetus, 60 days for a female, saw abortion of an unsouled fetus as a sin against marriage.[14] He wrote: "This sin, although grave and to be reckoned among misdeeds and against nature...is something less than homicide... nor is such to be judged irregular[15] unless one procures the abortion of an already formed fetus."[16]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catholic_Church_and_abortion

[ag_dude]

40. 900 years ago

is a "few years" to you?

[ieoeja]

43. When I first started posting at DU that was still the official Roman Catholic position.

They only officially changed that rule within the last decade.

[former9thward]

32. The Catholic church has never been pro choice.

Don't know where you are getting that from. I would like to see a link to your assertion that the majority of self-identified Catholics are pro-choice. The latest Gallup poll on the subject found 41% of all Americans are pro-choice so I'm sure that number would be lower among those who say they are Catholic. http://www.chron.com/life/houston-belief/article/New-Gallup-poll-finds-Americans-less-like-to-3583795.php

[adigal]

34. Yes, it was, but not recently

It was in the 1800s, I believe. It was always considered evil, but considered murder after the baby could move. Now, it is considered murder from day one of conception.

[ieoeja]

45. It was throughout the entirety of the 1900s as well.

My younger relatives took a hard right turn. They tried justifying their abortion stance on religion. So I had to find an official publication of Church doctrine to show them that their stance disagreed with official doctrine.

Most of them have moved on to fundamentalist religions. So by the time the Church changed doctrine last decade, the point was moot.

[ieoeja]

44. I must have been thinking birth control. However, Catholics are no more and no less pro-choice.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/117154/catholics-similar-mainstream-abortion-stem-cells.aspx

A 2009 poll shows Catholics and Non-Catholics at 40% and 41% pro-choice respectively.

And the quickening rule was still official Catholic doctrine when I first started posting at DU. I recall the Church changing that position, but it was only within the last decade.

[former9thward]

46. I am certainly not an expert on the Catholic theology.

What I meant is that I don't think they have ever been 'pro-choice' in the way we think of that term in the present.

[ieoeja]

47. They believed it was acceptable through quickening. I don't see how that differs from pro-choice. nt

[lark]

33. Old news, no longer true

Today's Catholic heirarchy are becoming more and more just anohter tool of the right wing crazies. Your list is very sanitized, Catholic churches now are pushing hard to disallow contrapcention for anyone, much less abortion. They are supporting Repug health care canards, and basically just supporting the right wing in every way possible. The nuns still care about tradiitional Catholic values of helping poor, etc, but they are berated in the media by the bishops for these stands and told to support their betters - the men of course.

Catholic church is now a big part of the 1% and getting worse every day. Look at how they hide and cover up their pedophilia, they are true Repugs.

[Enrique]

13. for the same reasons non-Hispanics would be Republicans

everyone gets to make up their own minds.

[skepticscott]

20. That's why they CAN be Republicans

and why they CAN vote Republican. The question is why WOULD Hispanics support a party where everyone who matters (and most who don't) considers them lazy, dirty, and probably in the country illegally? Not quite as big a mystery as why gays or lesbians would be Republicans, but almost.

[ag_dude]

29. You'd be surprised how many hispanics

have the same attitude as that toward illegal immigration.

[nxylas]

3. Latinos are obviously quicker on the uptake than rural whites

They are strongly Catholic, and probably agree with the Republicans on abortion and gay marriage, but that'll only take you so far when a party is determined to shit on its voters. I wish rural and suburban whites would come to the same realisation, but they still kid themselves that the GOP is on their side.

[chervilant]

17. Yeah, true that...

I was thinking this morning: how ironic that so many people will vigorously defend the fact that the CEO of Goldman Sachs received a $12.6 million dollar bonus, while these poor delusional souls are (and always have been) making barely enough money to make ends meet--all because they might someday make that much money. And, these same people are fiercely patriotic and anti-government regulations. Sad, sad, sad...

(BTW, that bonus would fund more than 360 entry level clerk positions for an entire year.)

[daaron]

19. Well said. And true I think.

Having lived in New Mexico for 15 years (until 2 days ago, in fact) I would say you're analysis is pretty much spot-on. Most Hispanic voters in NM are Dems, but they drag the party to the Right on social issues. Witness Gov. Martinez.

[Alcibiades]

24. They also have access to spanish-language press

Whenever they GOP does some bullshit designed to appeal to nativists at the expense of immigrants, it gets page 3 or four in our paper, but it's the subject of a full page in Spanish newspapers, which offer great reporting on exactly how bad it is.

So when GOP candidates show up in their neighborhoods claiming to support their issues, hispanic voters (at least the folks still new eough to still speak Spanish) already know they are full of shit.

[ieoeja]

26. Firearms.

I grew up in a rural Catholic community which was staunchly Democratic (see my earlier post) until the Assault Weapons Ban. They haven't voted Democratic since then.

They have since pulled a 180 on every issue except firearms. But I'm pretty sure after choosing a side based on firearms, they simply embraced all the other issues of that side.

-----------------------

We once called the cops after a brief exchange of gunfire with some thieves. It took the cops about 20 minutes to reach us. And I'm pretty sure the exchange of gunfire made our call priority #1.

This is the reality of country living. They don't view firearms as a right. They view it as a necessity. Gun control makes as much sense to them as Breathing control.

[NewJeffCT]

4. one point, though

George Bush was from Texas, so being a home state governor was obviously worth several points.

However, the trend is not good for the GOP overall.

[Manifestor_of_Light]

37. Both George Bushes were from New Haven, Connecticut.

A lot of Texans did not buy into either one's fake cowboy bullshit.

[NewJeffCT]

42. Enough bought it that Bush was twice elected governor of Texas

the second time with 69% of the vote.

[shcrane71]

5. I heard that as Latinos improve their socioeconomic status that they leave

the Democratic party in droves.

[wildeyed]

6. Where did you hear that?

Do you have a link?

[zbdent]

7. "some say" ...

[shcrane71]

10. NPR -- I think it was a story that ran yesterday

I'm doing a search.

[stlsaxman]

56. heard that on NPR, also... but considering that they are the "Liberal Bureau" of FOX

take it with half a grain of salt.

[shcrane71]

59. But they still hold power. I was certain that major media outlets

weren't going to let Dubya steal the 2000 election. I kept watching for pundits and investigative journalists to look into the fact that his brother handed him the Florida electoral votes. I was even more surprised that the Supreme Court justices gave Dubya Florida, and then left through the back door. I was certain there would be an outcry all over major media outlets... still waiting for that.

Now I think whatever the media tells us, that's who wins elections. It's not so much how you or I vote.

[Enrique]

15. any moreso than non-Latinos?

I often get the feeling that people don't quite accept Latinos being motivated by the same things that motivate everyone else.

[shcrane71]

18. I'm unable to find a link. I heard it on an NPR network recently

By recently, I want to say the past couple of days. Basically, they were disputing the claim that Texas will turn Democratic in 2020 because by then they said that the Latino voting base will have more money, and be more assimilated -- thus Republican. They also said that Republicans would appeal to traditional Catholic family values to win over the Latino vote.

Again, I don't have a link. I'm just reporting what I heard, and it was probably coming from a Heritage Foundation hack posing as a political scientist.

[skepticscott]

21. I assume that Latinos are motivated to a significant extent by self-interest

pretty much like everyone else. So how is that served by the Republican party?

[wildeyed]

25. That was my question too.

Aren't white republicans slightly more affluent than white dems? Why would other groups be different?

[w4rma]

8. All Democrats have to do is to continue to be respectful towards Latinos.

This is something that Republicans can not ever be trusted to do once in power.

[Blue_Roses]

9. Couldn't happen soon enough...

This state has a lot of fundies and big oil jerks who like power. It won't be easy, but even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then!

[Dustlawyer]

11. I voted yesterday and the Republican primary voting line was much longer than the Democrats.

Until recently, our state representative pretended to be a D. This election he switched to an R. While some areas are going bluer in Texas. Southeast Texas has always been blue, at least until Obama was elected. Just goes to show the racism in my neck of the woods. If the DNC would help us out here we could go blue a lot faster. As it is, they are waiting for more Latinos to be born or something. I am tired of dealing with folks who would still support Gov. Perry after his disastrous Presidential campaign primary race. Help us please!

[TBF]

16. Same for me down in South Houston -

I got involved a bit during Obama's primary in 2008. Unfortunately we were not able to beat Hillary in our county - which I completely understood because our dem base has got to be Latino here. She had strong support with them and that would help if she runs in 2016.

I am hopeful but I know it is going to take a lot of work, old white folks dying (to be blunt - I am a middle-aged white folk myself), and changing demographics. Plus it would help if we didn't have the current gerrymandering effect ...

[Manifestor_of_Light]

38. Hey there homie--I assume you are in the City of South Houston?

Or just the part of Houston by Hobby Airport?
formerly of Pasa-git-down-Dena here.

[TBF]

39. Nope -

west of Pasadena in Pearland (south of the airport). I never know what to call this area but it sure is growing fast ...

[stlsaxman]

14. Cue the Flying Lipstick Pigs...

- "Never gonna happen, folks"

[FSogol]

23. Make it so. K & R.

[Iliyah]

27. The repugs have become a politcial party

of "my way or the highway".

They need the boogie man scenerios since they can't run of their record cause they don't have one.

a. Target Latinos, they are sucking the life out of America, plus they are taking our jobs
b. Target gays, they are an abomination, totally against Jesus/God teachings
c. Target Pres O cause, y'know he's black and a Dem, any means necessary, i.e. he's the other....not American.....hates white people....Nazi.....

I do see Texas as at least turning purple tho this November, please, I want to see the repugs freak-out some more, hehehehe

[MadHound]

30. Good luck with that happening anytime soon

Entrenched Texas power will not go quietly into that dark night.

[ag_dude]

31. It happened once.

Democrats used to be have a stranglehold on the state.

Rick Perry himself was a Democrat until he saw the tide turning in the 80s.

It can happen again.

[AnneD]

50. Thank you ....

for pointing that fact out. Growing up, I never met a Republican until I got into college in 1973.

[freshwest]

52. My experience as well, but in 1969. The GOP whined and their YAF were a joke.

Later a lot of them came down in the seventies and they were called carpetbaggers as many of them were not natives, but had moved down to get work as industries up north closed or other reorganizations forced them to move. Some of them we called snowbirds because they said they were coming to get away from the snow, but it was for the money. A few even brought their snowblowers with them to SE TX which was kinda funny. They were union people, too.

[AnneD]

57. Yes...

I remember that too. They really F#&@ Texas up. I don't think west Texas ever recovered. I live in Houston and we have always tended toward purple but we are getting bluer by the day, no thanks to the Texas Dem Party. It has been grass roots baby

[Major Nikon]

54. Be that as it may, Texas has always been conservative

The Southern Strategy is what turned Texas red just like all the other Southern states, so bigotry has a lot to do with it.

That being said, most of the cities in Texas are solidly blue. The challenge will be to actually get Latinos to the voting booth. If this happens the rural areas in Texas could very well turn the tide.

[Quixote1818]

36. Obama won almost all the major cities in Texas

including Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Austin and El Paso. He lost Ft. Worth and I believe Amarillo. He just got creamed in the rural areas, but eventually the major cities will have too much population and and the Hispanic vote will also help overtake the Republican vote. It may take 10 or 20 years but things are moving that way rather quickly. New Mexico was a a red state not that long ago and now it's sold blue.

[ZombieHorde]

41. I would love to see Texas turn blue. nt

[Blue Owl]

48. Then how can Wisconsin be red?

n/t

[lobodons]

49. Death of the Electoral College

When Texas goes Blue the GOP will push to get rid of the Electoral College system. It will be their only play.

[Sirveri]

51. Texas will never go blue because it will always be gerrymandered for Repubs

The rest of it will be handled by the media and the 'culture'.

[Doctor_J]

53. Been hearing this for 10 years now

still isn't true

[ananda]

55. Yup.

Same ole same ole.

[AnneD]

58. Well spoken....

from some one not living in the area.

Been a Democrat in Texas all my life. That has given me a thick, tough skin, and I have needed it to deal with the National Democratic Party. If you are going to be a Dem down here, you need a spine and a pair of balls (no matter your gender). This has been lacking in the dems (small d) the party has 'sent' down here to 'help' us in our campaigns.

We are up against the worst lying, thieving, conniving people you can imagine (think Carl Rove). When we could have unseated DeLay, the party did not help (this could have helped Dems nationally). There is no strategist or new ideas in the Democratic Party at the national level. We need a Lyndon Johnson and we have a Harry Reed. The one good stagiest we had-Dean-the National Dems couldn't wait to can.

We need chess players and all we have is checker players, and bad ones at that.