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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsShit Is About to Get Real in California, El Niņo Report Predicts
After four years of drought, Californians are bracing for another potentially destructive weather event: El Niño. Earlier this week, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA, released a disaster plan including what to expect from the upcoming rainy season. Here are the key takeaways:
This may be the strongest El Niño on record. Weather reports indicate that this year will be warm and wetperhaps even more so than the winter of 1997-1998, which is currently the strongest recorded El Niño. That year, California evacuated 100,000 people.
The dry conditions mean more flooding. The lack of soil moisture has made the soil "harden and act like cement," making it, paradoxically, less likely to soak up the rain. The chance of flooding is far higher than usual, especially in the productive farm country of the Central Valley and the surrounding areaincluding the state's capital. "The primary risk areas are in populated areas mostly notably in Sacramento," the report readsand because of that, "a major flood situation would have significant impact on the economic, cultural, and political life of California." Additionally, a catastrophic levee failure in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta would jeopardize a major source of water for 60 percent of California homes and for a portion of the state's agricultural industry." One in five Californians lives in a flood zone.
Wildfires in the summer mean more landslides in the winter. The wildfire season this year was devastating in California, scorching more than 300,000 acres. Mudslides are common in these scorched areas, called "burn scars," because water quickly runs off and there aren't trees to keep the soil, rocks, and other debris in place. Southern Californians got a little taste of what this might look like when rain led to severe landslides in October.
King Tides, El Niño, and the Blob mean higher sea levels and more potential damage. Sea levels typically rise a few inches during El Niño, but this winter, scientists predict that the giant swath of warm water off the West Coastdubbed the Blobwill lead to a rise of between 8 and 11 inches. State officials are particularly concerned about the potential damage caused by storms toward the end of both December and January, when the highest tides of the winter, called King Tides, are expected.
The rains may ease the drought but won't solve it. All this water will certainly ease the drought and raise levels in the state's depleted reservoirs. But because the state is so behind on precipitation, it's very unlikely that it will make up for the state's now four-year water deficit.
http://www.motherjones.com/blue-marble/2015/12/fema-preparing-el-nino-heres-what-californians-can-expect
longship
(40,416 posts)Iliyah
(25,111 posts)Glad they are warning us if the predictions are true.
doc03
(35,337 posts)or May weather here. The forsythia and dandalions are blooming and I am going to have to take my snow plow off the tractor and put the mower back on.
fleur-de-lisa
(14,624 posts)We have been relatively dry over the last few months when we normally receive lots of rain. Strange times!
SamKnause
(13,103 posts)I have buds on my lilac bush.
I have wild violets all over the yard and the grass is growing like crazy.
It is suppose to be 67 Saturday and 69 Sunday.
It sure helps out a lot on the heating bills.
Where are you located ???
doc03
(35,337 posts)Hepburn
(21,054 posts)I grew up in Ohio and way back when, December was snow and ice and more snow and ice. I am originally from the "Great Snow Belt", Akron-Canton area of Ohio.
I am in Long Beach, CA, right now and it is 64 degrees. Not sure what it is at home, but probably about the same temp.
doc03
(35,337 posts)...I remember as a child not being able to go outside and schools being closed because of the bad weather this time of the year. Wow, 70 degrees in December in Ohio! Warmer in Ohio this coming Sunday than where I am in SoCal!
truegrit44
(332 posts)Born and raised in North LB. Been gone and to many other states since then.
Hepburn
(21,054 posts)On Ocean Boulevard, his office is across from City Hall -- absolutely beautiful office in one of the old re-done buildings. I am a retired lawyer and was doing some ghost writing and enjoying the day there. I really enjoy Long Beach. It has become a tourist spot other than the Queen Mary, etc. Some fine restaurants and night spots.
You must be military? Navy maybe?
BTW: Both Long Beach and LA Ports are booming. I come over the Vincent Thomas/Desmond bridges to get into Long Beach. I live north of the LB area, but go there often. Every time I go over the bridges, I see new facilities being built.
TM99
(8,352 posts)I went to college in the 80's in Ohio, and December was snowy and quite cold. Winters could be brutal there, I remember.
Y'all are only about 10 degrees cooler than we are here in Phoenix!
That just ain't right!
MeNMyVolt
(1,095 posts)Looks like a sheet of glass, and I swear I've seen this one guy in a row boat off our pier consume a half dozen beers. More power to him.
MissDeeds
(7,499 posts)I live in Northeast Kansas and it's 65 degrees right now. Tomorrow is forecast to be warmer with a chance of severe thunderstorms. Our flowering trees are budding out and the lawn is about half green.
On Thanksgiving, it was in the upper 60s during the day and we got freezing drizzle in the evening...wickedly weird weather even for Kansas.
Siwsan
(26,262 posts)We are supposed to be in the mid 60's, on Sunday. I just checked the record high for today, and it was 61. Our average, for this time in December, is 35. I'm not complaining because our last two winters were brutal.
NickB79
(19,243 posts)LanternWaste
(37,748 posts)Additionally Texas and the Greater Southwest is expected to have a wetter and colder winter than normal, while the northeast and Plains states are expected to be drier and warmer this winter due to the pattern.
http://www.weather.com/forecast/national/news/winter-2015-2016-what-to-expect
TM99
(8,352 posts)Last winter was all too brief and rather dry.
I was running my A/C yesterday.
I would look forward to the cold and wetness. Please!
Eleanors38
(18,318 posts)...and the reservoirs looked like hog wallers.
Good foliage, forbs and grass, for now. Lakes are in fairly good shape.
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)We will see.
fleur-de-lisa
(14,624 posts)"Shit is about to get real", but it is actually the real title of the article. I hope no one is offended by it.
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)We have been told repeatedly that this is going to be a Decennial El Nino, perhaps even once in a century.
I am hoping they are right.
fleur-de-lisa
(14,624 posts)As much as the phrase 'shits about to get real'. I live in New Orleans, so I don't take the threat of catostrophic weather lightly, no matter where it is projected.
But your response did make me laugh! Teenagers!
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)It is common slang.
fleur-de-lisa
(14,624 posts)But poutrage is all the fashion. It doesn't take much to set some people off.
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)and thank you.
I'm in the county of Los Angeles area - South Bay. It rained last night and early this morning. Strong winds right now.
MADem
(135,425 posts)Anyone who is "offended" would do well to click the link before they yell at you. It's always a good idea to check for context before deploying 'umbrage.'
They can write a sternly worded letter to Mother Jones, if they'd like...
Throd
(7,208 posts)Nailzberg
(4,610 posts)And I just washed the car.
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)my side is from Shreveport.
Who dat Saints!
hedgehog
(36,286 posts)"The last time it went so late in the season with no measurable snow was 1899"
http://time.com/4139898/snow-buffalo-record/
Every day without snow is setting a new record.
B2G
(9,766 posts)Enjoy it while it lasts...
El Supremo
(20,365 posts)dpatbrown
(368 posts)because I live in Sacramento. But yes, the newspapers have carried a lot of articles in regards to El Nino. I hope these scientist are right but I'll believe it when I see it. Some of the talk includes wishful thinking, but who knows. There have already been politicians (GOP of course) and church folks, blamed the drought on Obama, so I'm sure Fox will jump on it soon.
We've had to ration our water, so I let my lawns die. Although you can drive through the rich areas and see many, many very green lawns. I've also heard several times that it would likely hit the southern part of the state.
Person 2713
(3,263 posts)his omnipotent sleeve.....
Hekate
(90,683 posts)That kind of thing. Just call him Moses.
a kennedy
(29,660 posts)HOLMEN, Wis. (WKBT) -
Many skiers and snowmobilers are discouraged by the lack of snow in our area right now, but not everyone is disappointed in this weather.
Golfers were out in full force Thursday at Drugan's Castle Mound in Holmen.
One golfer we spoke with has been golfing for more than 40 years and says he has never been golfing this late in the year, but is enjoying the extended season.
"The course is in very good shape. The greens are a little slower. I don't think they've been cut for a month, but that's understandable when they had snow on them.... yeah," said golfer Monte Jacobson.
Every golf cart was out on the course at Drugan's.
The manager says they will stay open as long as the weather permits and it doesn't damage the course.
http://www.news8000.com/news/area-golfers-hit-the-links-in-middecember/36908312
bullwinkle428
(20,629 posts)Temperatures pushing 60 degrees.
a kennedy
(29,660 posts)Am hoping that in July and August it isn't over a hundred. This isn't right.
leftyladyfrommo
(18,868 posts)Extended forcast shows really good, warmer weather into January. Some rain but nothing awful.
cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)I love it.
jberryhill
(62,444 posts)smirkymonkey
(63,221 posts)around 60 tomorrow. It doesn't feel like Christmas at all.
ghostsinthemachine
(3,569 posts)L. Coyote
(51,129 posts)truedelphi
(32,324 posts)In much need of shoring up.
I don't now if they have made sufficient headway in the repairs. But should any of the levees go, it will be Katrina all over again!
LeftyMom
(49,212 posts)The Natomas upgrades are freshly completed. The new project to upgrade protection for the Pocket and Land Park was just authorized this summer.
But the biggest vulnerabilities aren't in the public levee system, they're in the landowner maintained levees in the delta. A lot of those are just packed earth to begin with and tree roots and animal burrows render them useless if they're not maintained.
Hekate
(90,683 posts)...their people rebuild over and over and over again.
Thanks,
Another Californio
LeftyMom
(49,212 posts)MissB
(15,807 posts)And while it's rather unpleasant, our soils can pretty much handle it.
(Except for a few landslides here and there, including one on I-5 north that blocked all three lanes for a day.)
Just no earthquakes right now, m'kay? Because liquefaction of soils really would be a bummer for much of Portland Oregon.
I have a feeling we've been getting the rain systems intended for California.
Gormy Cuss
(30,884 posts)The soil is becoming friable again and will absorb more water at the front end of the El Nino so there should be less flooding. The rest of the dire predictions, alas, are still at play.
LastLiberal in PalmSprings
(12,586 posts)and this winter scares the shit out of him. "Get ready for a 500-year winter," he told us as he made sure we have a month's worth of supplies on hand.
We live east of L.A. and on the other side of the mountains from the city, so much of the bad weather will miss us or be lessened by the time it gets to us. The last time we had a bad winter, however, we were snowed in for eight days, so all it takes is one storm to get past Mt. San Gorgonio and we're screwed.
Fortunately, being prepared for El Ninõ also prepares us for earthquakes and the CDC emergency plan for a Zombie Apocalypse.
fleur-de-lisa
(14,624 posts)With all the weird weather going on, who the f*** knows what will happen?
I live in New Orleans. I take all warnings of severe weather seriously.
My hope is that California gets a lot of rain in small doses, so the parched soil can absorb it without flooding.
My mom is from Sacrememto and all of her relatives are in the area. Sending good thoughts to you and your family!
valerief
(53,235 posts)in the world, apparently.