R.I.P., GOP: Party of old, disillusioned white people is dying a slow death

[n2doc]

Changing Demographics will be the death knell for the Republican Party — even though it may take White House in '16

by SEAN ILLING

No matter who wins the nomination battle, the Republican Party has a much bigger problem: demographics. A new report released by the Center for American Progress analyzed the demographic advantages for Democrats in 2016 and beyond and the results are overwhelmingly positive.

And this should surprise no one.

Observers on both sides have long questioned the Republican Party’s viability in an increasingly progressive and less white America. With every national election, it becomes more obvious that the GOP’s “Southern Strategy,” which exploited racial and cultural resentment for votes, has finally backfired.

As The Nation’s William Greider wrote in October: “The GOP finds itself trapped in a marriage that has not only gone bad but is coming apart in full public view. After five decades of shrewd strategy, the Republican coalition Richard Nixon put together in 1968 – welcoming the segregationist white South into the Party of Lincoln – is no devouring itself in ugly, spiteful recriminations.”

Greider was responding to the resignation of House Speaker John Boehner, who left on account of the nihilistic Tea Party caucus. The Tea Party extremists in Congress, like the social conservatives who supported them, are part of a reactionary movement of cultural discontents whose only purpose is to negate and obstruct, and they’ve proven that in office.

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http://www.salon.com/2015/12/17/r_i_p_gop_party_of_old_disillusioned_white_people_is_dying_a_slow_death_report_says/

We shall see. I won't be doing any grave dancing until the repubs have lost control of all government branches and state houses.

[Shandris]

1. Ah, well, so we've stopped pretending we aren't cheering on the deaths of white people.

Good, now I can stop pretending my Party still has a foot grounded in reality.

Not sure who paid for all the white hatred to flood the internet, but they certainly got their moneys worth. I just hope they get their comeuppance when the fruits of their work finally manifest. I sincerely hope the same for every single one of their candlebearers.

And I'm reassured by Evie in The Mummy, who notes that 'nasty little buggers like {Bennie} always get their comeuppance. Always.'

[cyberswede]

2. um, what?

Pointing out the changing demographics in the US (and how that may affect politics) is hardly "cheering on the deaths of white people." Nor is it "white hatred."

[bhikkhu]

15. Cheering the end of racism, bigotry, misogyny, hate...

its just coincidental that "old white male" is the predominant demographic.

I don't hate anyone, and many (one-sided) conversations with deeply hateful people end with me just hanging my head, then deliberately recalling to mind those people whose openminded kindness I admire, so as to not fall into despair for what many people let themselves become.

[Shandris]

17. Very well said. =)

I find there's so little distinction made between 'white' and '{bad trait} white' that it really does get to me sometimes, and I probably lashed out a bit overly (not at anyone, I don't think, but still). Its strange being in a party that quietly, unfortunately, harbors some members with hate, fighting a group filled with their own hate. Sometimes, it's hard to keep perspective, neh.

But you make a very good reminder about that at the end, and I thank you for it. I really needed it today.

Have a great night.

[PeteSelman]

3. I wish we were dead like them.

They have the House in perpetuity, the Senate, 37 governorships, most of the statehouses, the Supreme Court and a damn good shot at the Presidency.

We've been hearing about the demise of the Republicans forever but I see no evidence of it.

[msongs]

4. party pooper :-) nt

[Bigmack]

5. Gerrymandering and voter suppression is hardly a winning game plan for a vanishing demographic. nt

[LiberalElite]

16. it keeps the GOP on life support -

how do we pull the plug?

[PeteSelman]

18. It's working though, isn't it?

And statewide elections aren't subject to gerrymandering.

[LonePirate]

6. Repubs do not have a damn good shot at the presidency in 2016. They have no shot.

There is not a single state which Obama won in 2012 which the Repubs have any chance of winning in 2016. They will not win CO, FL, OH or VA. The Dem nominee will increase on Obama's margins in all four states and NC will likely flip back to blue as well. Repub margins in AZ and GA are likely to be below 5%. Their margin in TX could drop to 10 points, maybe even less. They simply cannot win with those numbers. By 2020, Dems will flirt with 400 EVs and will definitely surpass that number in 2024.

We will win back some Senate seats, with a good chance of reclaiming the majority. We will pick up seats in the House as we begin a slow crawl back to majority status. We will even back some state legislature seats for what will be an even longer trek back to parity and then majority.

All of this will take time but it is going to happen. We don't need to win every governorship and state legislature. Once TX finally turns blue, the Republican Party will essentially be over as it will only have some southern, plains and western states with little power and influence over the rest of the larger blue nation.

[PeteSelman]

19. With the pantspissers in this country, we're one attack away from a Republican landslide.

Don't kid yourself. All anyone is talking about is terror, terror, terror and, for whatever reason, Democrats are perceived as weak on the issue. Couple that with Hillary's gun control talk and good bye blue collar Democratic voters. Good bye PA and Ohio, good bye White House.

They do have a shot.

[tabasco]

21. Ain't that the truth?

Land of the brave. LOL. More like the land of cowards and brainwashed idiots.

[bermudat]

7. Word!

Do not discount the amount of voter suppression by repugnantcans. I sense there is more voter fraud by repugs than anyone has discovered - yet. However what explains the dismal voter turnout of women, people of color, students? I agree, what Repugnantcan demise?

[LittleBlue]

8. Just like the demise of white South Africans

Except they own roughly 80% of the land in South Africa despite being 9% of the population, which is higher than they did under apartheid.

The 1% of this country controls much of the government by buying both parties. It's money, not votes, that control governments.

[napkinz]

10. "we the people"

[NYCButterfinger]

11. It may be good, but not for future minority presidents

[oberliner]

12. Yet it is our party whose two frontrunners for the nomination are old white people

Whereas the Republican group is actually a good bit more diverse.

Does anyone else find that to be problematic?

[starroute]

13. The Democratic Party has something of a Gen X gap

Unlike the Boomers and the Millennials, Gen X never had anything to get them stirred up politically. In addition, the GOP dominance of state elections has stalled the rise of promising young Democrats, and the few who have emerged tend to be Third Wayers.

The oldest Millennials are entering their middle 30s now, and they're the ones I think we have to count on to pick up the torch. And when they do, they will be far more diverse than the shrinking GOP talent pool. But I agree with you that there could be some thin times candidate-wise over the next few years.

[Jim Lane]

14. The GOP is allowed to change and adapt.

I wouldn't assume that they'll just suffer through a succession of defeats without taking countermeasures.

A speculation I've seen from more than one commentator is that the Republicans would benefit from a trouncing in 2016. As it stands now, the right wing has been grousing that the GOP elite has foisted RINOs like McCain and Romney on the party, that these insufficiently conservative candidates have been touted as offering the best chance to win the general election, that they have failed, and that what's really needed is a true conservative to mobilize the base. Suppose the right win finally succeeds in defeating the party establishment; they run a Trump/Cruz ticket and suffer a loss of Goldwateresque proportions. The result might well be that the party finds it easier to reconfigure itself to cope with the new demographics.

As just one caution against prematurely writing the GOP's obituary, consider this: 1964 and 1972 were landslides of historic proportion, but in each case, the losing party came back to win the Presidency in the very next election. The lesson is that each of the major parties has a considerable residue of strength. The progressive utopia, in which the Republicans are a fringe party and elections are contested between the Democrats on the right and the Greens on the left, is not going to happen.

[whatthehey]

20. But they are a renewable resource

Those septuagenarian Trumpophiles were quite often the ones wearing caftans and buying sitars in a haze of THC at love-ins a few decades ago. Does anybody really think age doesn't change politics? Until Logan's Run becomes a documentary or Almay Anti-Aging Cream starts performing really beyond expectations, those milliennial darling hopes of the left aren't likely to stay as well disposed toward socialism all their voting lives.

Personal social equality attitudes seem to resist aging fairly well. It takes weird trauma for a "colorblind" 18 year old to become a 60 year old Grand Wizard, but politics in general tend to change far more when people have to pay their own way, raise kids and start accepting that getting old and wrinkly is better than the only real alternative.

And please note that doesn't mean no hippies stayed on the left any more than it means all millennials are on the left now. But the general trend that older = more conservative isn't going to magically stop for this generation when it's been true pretty much throughout Western civilization since at least the early modern period and probably long before. Ancient Greek plays contain lines bemoaning the lack of conservatism amongst the young.

[Iggo]

22. Way too slow.