Jeb! Last man standing?

[Cyrano]

Last edited Sat Jan 2, 2016, 02:59 PM - Edit history (1)

January 2nd, 2016: Election year is here, the primaries are nigh, and every pundit is predicting who the Republican candidate will be.

For some reason, it has struck me that Jeb, even after all his missteps and after all his screw ups, may just turn out to be the last man standing in this race. Here’s my thinking on this:

Trump is still #1 in the polls, but the brain-dead people who come out and cheer for him might be the same people who never show up at the polls. And even if some of them do, I just don’t believe there are enough to elect this narcissistic head case.

Ben Carson’s campaign was over a few weeks ago and it seems that the only one who doesn’t know this is Ben Carson.

Carly Fiorina: See Ben Carson.

Ted Cruz has been waiting around for Trump to fall and then pick up all the haters. Once Cruz is the front runner, the media will focus on him, millions of people will learn the fact that the man is a fundamentalist crazy and a first-class prick that no one can stand, and his campaign will die a slow (or perhaps quick) death.

Marco Rubio, it turns out, has a major money backer who is a convicted felon. And Rubio’s personal financial history leaves the impression that he’s inexperienced and sloppy. Not to mention that he’s a guy who just doesn't seem ready for prime time.

Chris Christy has gotten the backing of New Hampshire’s biggest Republican newspaper. But even if he has a good showing in NH, he’s gone a bridge too far for most people to support him. And he’s got a 5% positive rating in New Jersey. When the people in your home state hate you, it means you’re in trouble in other states.

Which leaves us with Jeb! The GOP establishment is comfortable with him and he’s a known quantity to most Republican voters. Throughout the entire campaign, he’s looked like the Fredo of the Bush family. But my guess is that he may just end up as the Republican candidate. As long as he stays out of rowboats.

[femmocrat]

1. It could happen.

I always predicted it would be jeb because of the republican penchant for choosing mainstream, "safe" conservatives.

[Wellstone ruled]

2. Playing out as predicted.

[Old Codger]

3. If not jeb

They will pull someone out of the hat that has not been heard from yet..The clown car is a distraction only not a viable resource in it..

[exboyfil]

8. Last brokered election was 1932

Let alone a White Knight (when has that ever happened).

[Old Codger]

9. You are

Equating the current political environment to what has always been, I personally don't think that is a viable outlook at this time, we have never, in recent history had as many freaks running and if the R party is not scared shitless by this bunch they are crazier than the current slate... I would bet they have been camped on Rmoney's doorstep for a while now..

[IDemo]

4. My guess is that they're twisting RMoney's arm up behind his neck until he says 'yes' n/t

[Proserpina]

5. Jeb has no standing, and isn't standing, and couldn't stand even if he wanted to

I don't think anyone should be forced to run for President against his will...and Jeb has repeatedly said and shown that he doesn't.

[exboyfil]

6. Not ready for prime time

I think that equally applies to Jeb! The weight of the establishment might get him over the finish line, but as of now he seems pathetic.

Start adding up the crazies and you might find that enough will support Cruz to get the nomination. He is the politician from The Dead Zone. He scares the life out of me.

[Cyrano]

10. Cruz is the most dangerous sociopath

of them all. I don't believe there are enough crazy people to vote for him in the primaries. Then again, perhaps that's just wishful thinking. After all we're talking about Republican voters here.

[3catwoman3]

27. "He scares the life out of me."

Me, too. His views are vile enough. His face and voice make it even worse. I do not like any of the clown car occupants, but I really, really, REEEEEEEEEEEEEEALLY don't like Cruz.

[TreasonousBastard]

7. I've been thinking along those lines, but...

it's too complicated to work out now.

Lessee how the primaries go and who drops out. And Iowa/New Hampshire historically have meant very little except for the first dropouts and money shifts.

[former9thward]

15. Meant very little?

Since WW II the winner of the Democratic nomination and Republican nomination have finished either 1st or 2nd in the New Hampshire primary.

[TreasonousBastard]

17. So? Most of those years weren't...

as crowded and nutty as the Republicans are this year.

And when you have only two significant candidates, as it was Obama and Hillary and now Sanders and Hillary, either #1 or #2 will be the nominee.

[comradebillyboy]

11. That's certainly how Jeb! hopes it works out

But my money is on Cruz who is running the best organized and smartest campaign among the Rs. I would love to see a deadlocked convention pick a loser like Jeb! over a more popular candidate. It would be an political disaster. I don't think it will happen though, but a man can always dream eh, Jebbie.

[TBF]

14. Texas likes Cruz but old money doesn't -

they'll go with the white bread candidate every time. Bonus this one has a latino wife.

[comradebillyboy]

25. The donor class desperately wants Jeb!

no doubt about it. Can they deliver the nomination is the big question. I wouldn't mind having Jebbie as the nominee, Hillary would mop the floor with him.

[TexasBushwhacker]

12. He still has an enormous amount of $$ in his SuperPAC

About $100M as of last quarter, but his campaign is rapidly running out of cash. He can't use SuperPAC money to pay his staff (at least not legally) so unless he starts getting those personal donations, and does well in the early primaries, he's toast.

Now, if he got that SuperPAC money early in game when he was heir apparent, it may just be that the corporations were supporting him that very reason - that he was the candidate most likely.

[TBF]

13. The only question is which crazy for VP -

I'm going with Kasich. That way they've got Florida and Ohio.

[StevieM]

19. I think Bush may pick Brian Sandoval, the governor of Nevada. (eom)

[TBF]

20. Not as many electoral votes -

but also a swing state. He's younger too. Not a bad guess.

[KamaAina]

16. What does KKKarl think?

He's the kingmaker, after all.

[StevieM]

18. I also think Bush will be the nominee.

I just can't see Rubio winning at this point. He is such a lightweight and has a poor organization in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Christie has way too many problems.

Kasich has hit a ceiling in New Hampshire, and hasn't been able to break it for months, even when showing potential there that other candidates haven't. Besides, the idiots in the GOP have concluded that he is somehow a liberal.

I could see Donald Trump of Ted Cruz winning the nomination. But if they don't then I think Bush has the best shot.

If Bush can beat Rubio in Iowa to take third, the media will spin that as a comeback. He could then be labeled the establishment alternative in New Hampshire and do well there, which would make him a finalist in the race.

An endorsement from Mitt Romney could help too, especially in Nevada where a lot of the caucus-goers will be Mormons.

[saltpoint]

21. Bush could somehow emerge from

the scuffle as the nominee. But his odds are pretty long.

He loses in Iowa to Trump and Cruz and two or three others. A fourth or fifth place Iowa showing isn't going t help.

He loses in New Hampshire to Trump, Kasich, Christe, Rubio, Cruz, and god knows who else. A fifth or even sixth place finish is going to dry up still more donors. He'll be pressured heavily to bow out.

After that, Bush heads to South Carolina where he will be buried alive. The GOP base is far right and unbalanced. South Carolina is the flagship primary displaying those features.

Where else does Bush pull out a win? Not saying it's out of the question, just that it's not looking very likely.

[StevieM]

22. I think the assumption here is that he will do better than that in the early states.

Maybe his strong ground game in Iowa--along with Rubio's weak ground game--allows him to take a surprise third place finish.

Then maybe he uses that momentum to take second place in New Hampshire. That makes him the official alternative to Trump and Cruz.

Finally, maybe he wins Nevada with strong support from Mormons, who represent a decent portion of the caucus-goers.

An endorsement from Mitt Romney, if he can get it after taking third in Iowa, could also make a difference in New Hampshire and Nevada.

[saltpoint]

23. Possible.

I just think it is an uphill slog for him at this point.

Trump characterizes Jeb as "low energy." He might have added "...and not terribly bright, either."

If Jeb can find a minute or two on the campaign trail, he needs to sit down with a good high school geography teacher to learn the difference between Chicago and Cleveland.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/jeb-bush-tamir-rice-chicago


At least some time before this summer when his party's convention meets in Cleveland.

[stevenleser]

24. It has been surprising to me for a while that anyone here thinks Jeb has a shot. He doesnt.

He is at the percentage he is in the polls because the Republican grass roots do not like him or what his proposed policies are and that has been apparent for a long time.

You can't contend for states in the nomination process if the grass roots refuse to pull the lever or caucus for you.

[hay rick]

29. We're in uncharted territory...

particularly if more candidates don't drop out and no one is close to a first ballot majority. "Investors" can keep marginal candidates in the race and use them to bargain for what they want after the first ballot. Bush may have a real shot at that point.

[stevenleser]

30. Not really. He's tanking nationally and in the first few caucus/primary states.

He is a very distant fifth in just about all of the above with no hint of movement. He is hated by the non-establishment, and is the establishment's second or third choice at this point. He's on the wrong side of the Republican electorate on the top two issues they care about.

Even assuming he makes it to the convention, which seems like less than a one in one hundred chance right now, any political party would see it as obvious suicide to select someone who is performing as poorly as he is versus any of the folks doing better than him.

There really is no there, there, and this insistence by some here that he is still a relevant thing to talk about in the GOP nomination race is ludicrous.

National polls: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

Iowa polls: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html

New Hampshire polls: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_presidential_primary-3350.html

South Carolina polls: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_presidential_primary-4151.html

[hay rick]

31. I don't think he has to be sitting first or second...

going into the convention to win on a later ballot. One of the people he is still behind is dead man walking Ben Carson. I think Trump is unelectable. If Cruz and Rubio achieve the same status I think the power brokers may seriously consider bland Jeb Bush. They will count on the force of their money and faith that their electorate will settle for a "lesser evil." Jeb! lives!

[stevenleser]

32. Yes, he does. There is absolutely no reason for the RNC to do what you suggest.

What, you think Rubio or Cruz wouldn't do financially exactly what the folks behind the RNC would want them to do? Both of those guys are far ahead of Bush now.

Trump has said that if the RNC pulls any nonsense, he will run independent. There is an agreement between Trump and the GOP that the GOP wont do the former and so he wont do the latter.

[tularetom]

26. Jeb Bush v. Hillary Clinton = 1% turnout at the polls

As the cynicism level of the American public goes through the roof.

People will think the whole process is rigged.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

34. Well, guess I'll be part of the one percent

Happily voting against Jeb Pigshit Bush

[Mc Mike]

28. I think you're right. rec. no text.

[RobinA]

33. I'm Still Predicting

Jen. Of course, I said W would never get the nomination, so what do I know?