Gingrich win almost certainly be the nominee. The calendar simply favors Newt over Romney.

[Bucky]

Last edited Tue Dec 27, 2011, 01:15 PM - Edit history (1)

Those who want Newt nominated, take heart. Mr Gingrich's drop in national polls may not have that big an impact on whether he gets the Republican nomination. First off, compared to the Bachmann, Perry, and Cain implosions, Newt's drop has been fairly moderate. This is partly because the Republicans have simply run out of candidates to turn to and partly because the reasons not to like Gingrich are fairly old news. Yes, he's been a high priced shadow lobbyists for 15 years; yes, he divorced his wife while she was in the hospital for cancer treatments; yes, he has a long history of murdering orphans and eating their livers on Pay Per View to raise money for his Store Asbestos in Public Schools initiative.

But many Republicans knew all that already and he's the Marilyn Manson of conservative politics--just not that shocking anymore. Furthermore, he's not going to drop down to single digits because he's a more disciplined and less flaky candidate than the previous flash-in-the-pan frontrunners. And, as always, Romney each won't ever get more than a third of voting Republicans to approve of him while Ron Paul won't ever get more than a fourth. That missing 45% will have to vote for somebody and that somebody is not going to be Rick Santorum or the pro-science Huntsman. Newt is simply the last clown left in the toy Volkswagen in the center ring.

Once we get into the state primaries and caucuses, the news will start being (stupidly) dominated not by who's ahead in national polls but who won each of the rapid sequence of state contests. It'll go like this:

A week from now Ron Paul will pull off his upset in Iowa, but the unreported story will be all the also-rans' supporters ganging up to deny as many caucus delegate selections going to Paul--even throwing their support strategically to Romney where they can. Romney & Newt will be neck and neck for 2nd place. Everyone has been expecting this outcome, so to the Establishment's delight, Iowa won't seem to matter all that much.

The national media will step up the focus on Paul's nuttier ideas about getting out of most international organizations and the fear of urban minority riots.

Two weeks from now, Romney will win New Hampshire and Gingrich will take 2nd, effectively ending the Ron Paul threat. It will be a four person race at this point--but Paul and Perry are only hanging in there out of sheer Texas stubbornness. Perry is hoping for a southern miracle, but the next two contests are in Gingrich's backyard and frontyard respectively.

Four weeks from now Gingrich will be Romney by 25 points in South Carolina. Three days later he will repeat this margin of victory in Florida. Paul will not break 10% in either contest and Perry will drop out, coming in behind Paul in both states. Gingrich will probably get a majority win in one of those big state primaries. Because the national press has not been obsessing about the South the way they have about Iowa & New Hampshire, these will seem like big momentum swings, even though Gingrich's numbers have not been moving nationally.

In February there are a series of caucuses, followed by a Missouri primary on the 7th and Arizona & Michigan primaries on the 28th.
The media never pays attention to Maine, which Romney will win, while Newt should be able to win over enough wingnuts in the Nevada, Minnesota, and Colorado caucuses. Newt will win all three primaries by narrow margins and his win in Michigan will be wrongly perceived as a huge upset over Romney.

At this point the talk will be that Romney has to exceed expectations on Super Tuesday (March 6th) or the race is over. Super Tuesday means the following states: Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Vermont. Romney's victories will be limited to Virginia (where Gingrich is not on the ticket) and the two New England states.

Mitt might hold on for a little while, but pundits will start discussing him as a regional candidate (even tho the reality is that Newt is better described that way). The media will have tired of talking about the Gingrich swamp of scandals, which will have been fully explored by then. As his inevitability sinks in, Gingrich will become increasingly restrained and cautious in his usual pompous pronouncements--until the summer when the crazy talk finally escapes its cage. Ron Paul will continue to be a nuisance, with only marginally higher results that what he got in 2008.

Romney will come under increasing pressure to pull out. His strongest states are still months away: Illinois, Pennsylvania, New York, California. He doesn't handle losing very well and he'll become ever more testy, risking petulant gaffes. Meanwhile the GOP big wigs will start pushing him not to go more negative now that Newt looks likely to win. They want him to end his campaign before April, when he'd otherwise start to finally win big primaries. If the new "disciplined" Newt can pull off an upset in Illinois on March 20th, it's over. A lemon meringue spine like Mitt will cave into the bosses' demands and drop out.

The Gingrich-Daniels ticket will win 45% of the popular vote in November. Threats of a third party ticket will never materialize. Voter turnout will be significantly less than 2008's and in all likelihood the Mayan apocalypse will end all human life on the Winter Solstice 2012. You heard it here first.

[Skinner]

1. Good stuff.

I think you might be right.

[KharmaTrain]

2. You Forgot The Wild Card: The Paulbots...

Gnewt's biggest problem is being Gnewt. I would imagine Plouffe and Axelrod are salivating about running against Gnewt...so much to demonize and hate...so little for most voters to like. But Gnewt's lack of organization and fundraizing are going to be his downfall. He has zero ground game...and that's what wins elections...not polls. It's getting your people energized and to the polls on election day. Gnewts the "anyone by Romney" candidate...the "great white hope". It's the Paulbots who have been quietly working toward these primaries for the past 4 years. I not only expect him to win Iowa but also several other western and possibly southern states. Just cause the corporate media dismisses him doesn't mean his supporters do. And this is important when all the other candidates are so flawed and inept. It boils down to Mittens and Paul. Gnewt peaked too soon...

[Bucky]

3. I know that's the conventional wisdom. But I don't see Paul winning the Deep South.

Again, the big headline makers are gonna be South Carolina and Florida. Those are still strongly Newtland.

Based on the first three notMitts, we're expecting Gingrich's numbers to fall away any minute now. It's been fun, but the fact of the calendar means eventually the roller coaster ride is gonna end. I didn't believe it before this "who's the notMitt of the month" game began, but today I'm certain the Republicans are not going to nominate Romney. They don't trust him and he can't move his acceptability rate north of 25%. Maybe when it's down to a two-man that number moves up to 35%, but man is not nominateable.

And Gingrich won't fall like Perry & Cain did. Gingrich is different. He's a foot-shooter, to be sure. But he has the depth of understanding and the skills at speaking to the Republicans' so-called issues to stay in the game, even when his serial fuck ups come to light. He's still leading in Florida, which after Florida votes on the 31st will be the big story of the campaign.

Republican voters really don't have anywhere else to go. It's too late to put together a new candidacy, be it for Jeb Bush or for Mitch Daniels or for... uh, I can't really think of any other possibles. Republicans never have a deep bench for alpha male--I think they miss the days of God annointing a monarch to command the people.

Ron Paul simply isn't going to win any big states or any big votes. A ground game doesn't matter that much in a primary state and it matters much less for Republicans than it does for Democrats. It can win a candidate states like Iowa & New Hampshire, where each farmer meets each candidate several times. But in bigger states like SC & FL, it's wholesale politics. Paul's core message of American withdrawal from global dominance is simply not going to resonate with the suburban voters in the South and Midwest. He might do okay in Maine and Minnesota's caucuses, but Maine is always ignored by the press and by Super Tuesday, which is all primaries, he's going to be back to his old story of getting 5-15% in every primary state.

Paul is fun, but he's fringe. He'll never be a player except on the internet. His message sounds too much like surrender. Grown ups won't vote for him.

[KharmaTrain]

4. Gnewt's The "Great White Hope"...

That's what the teabaggers are looking for. You are right that he won't fall like Perry or Cain but he's sure fading. This clown car demolition derby of a primary process has made him the last one standing, but wobbly at best. He has little to no organization and this will hurt him as the primary moves from the cables to the voting booth.

You are probably right that Paul won't win a southern state but he sure has strength out west. He also has organization. Not all states will be voting...others have conventions and caucuses and this is where Paul will pick up delegates...enough to make a lot of noise at the convention. He could be the deal maker/breaker at the convention...and possibly this could work in Gnewt's favor. It's hard to predict that far out considering the twists and turns we're sure to see in the upcoming primaries.

If I were a betting man...which I'm not, I still think the nomination is Mittens to lose. And he sure could lose it. The entire rushpublican field is the lamest since the Alf Landon days and whomever comes out with the nomination will "lead" a bitterly divided and demoralized party.

Cheers...

[starroute]

5. You assume there could ever be a "disciplined" Newt

I suspect Newt is simply too fond of the sound of his own voice to shut up when anybody else would realize they were getting into dangerous territory. He also has nothing like an organized campaign, as shown by his failure to qualify in Virginia. Remember that Newt has never previously run for national or even state office, and his only campaign experience is as a Congressman from Georgia.

On the other hand, your arguments about the Republicans being in desperate need of a candidate they can coalesce around have a certain plausibility. You'll know if the GOP establishment has decided Newt's the one, because you'll suddenly see money being poured into his campaign and seasoned operatives and fundraisers being sent in to take control. But as far as I know, the Karl Rove types are still pushing for Romney.

There are also a few more subjective factors. One is that Newt just plain isn't very telegenic. He's ugly and pompous and his wife is positively reptilian. And his age could also be a factor -- he'll be 69 in June -- either in terms of voter perceptions that he's out of touch or as affecting his stamina to maintain an extended primary campaign.

[Bucky]

6. No, I mentioned that specifically.

I don't think he'll be able to contain himself in the long run. But he doesn't have Tourette's. He always manages to climb to the top before tumbling. I also think his ability to shock is diminished by his history of saying outlandish things. Most of the things we would call "gaffes" the Republican base thinks of as "telling it like it is." In the primary races this will help him. It'll only screw him up after he starts trying to appeal to moderates.

[starroute]

7. Time will tell, I guess

I'm reminded somehow of the classic Warner Brothers cartoon, Rabbit Seasoning.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0045062/quotes

Bugs Bunny: Would you like to shoot me now or wait till you get home?
Daffy Duck: Shoot him now! Shoot him now!
Bugs Bunny: You keep outta this! He doesn't have to shoot you now!
Daffy Duck: He does so have to shoot me now!
<to Elmer> Daffy Duck: I demand that you shoot me now!
<Elmer shoots him.>

I guess I have the feeling that there's more than a bit of Daffy Duck about Newt and that he's bound to wind up demanding that we shoot him now.

[yellowcanine]

8. It all depends on how the "Thank You Jesus" crowd votes. If they swallow hard and go whoring after

Mitt because he would run stronger against Obama it will be Mitt. OTOH, if they decide to ignore Newt's personal life mess in favor of his being "right" on most of the issues and being a Catholic rather than a Mormon. then it will be Newt.

[NNN0LHI]

9. No, I think Mitt is it

It appears it is his turn, and Romney has a lot of money to spend hammering on Gingrich. And he will use every penny of it if he needs to, Romney knows this is his last shot. His people will go for the juggler on this one.

Hope they both spend all their money destroying each other.

Don

[AtomicKitten]

10. I still think it's going to be Mitt.

[IDemo]

11. Idaho is nearly as Mormon as Utah

I think Mitt stands an excellent chance here. Plus, Paul enjoys a huge backing from the libertarian wackos. The Grinch won't win here, not that it matters.

[WI_DEM]

12. I doubt it...

if Romney comes out ahead of Newt in Iowa and wins convincingly in NH then he will have the momentum and besides Newt hasn't qualified for ballot in some states--and has little organization in many others.
p.s.
Daniels would never run for VP on a ticket headed by Newt--he's smarter than that.

[onenote]

13. Or maybe not

I really enjoy predictions like this. Just like I enjoyed predictions that were prevalent here on DU in the spring declaring that if Perry got in the race he was a shoo-in. Or that Bachmann was going to get the nomination. Or Jeb Bush.

I don't pretend to know how it will play out, but my guess is that it won't be along the lines the OP describes. My take on the situation is that Gingrich, who went from 40 percent support among repubs to around 25 percent in a matter of a couple of weeks, will have trouble getting back a lot of the support he lost. Not that it will necesssarily go to Romney, at least initially. Perry, Bachmann, and Paul probably will pick up bits and pieces, but not enough to make them viable. So it will be a two man race. The thing is that while Gingrich and Romney are likely to split some of those early states, my guess (and its just a guess) is that his margins will not be 25 percent in Florida and South Carolina -- it may be closer to half that amount.

Ultimately, Gingrich faces two hurdles that could prove insurmountable. First, he has no money and the repub establishment is inclined to start ponying up for him. Romney has millions of dollars available to him going forward over the next six weeks; Gingrich has thousands. In TV-rich states, that's a problem for Gingrich. Second, Paul, Bachmann, and Perry don't like Gingrich and they're not going to throw their support to him. On the other hand, they will be under enormous pressure to throw their support to Romney. They may not like doing it and some may resist, but not all of them and that will further hamstring Gingrich and Romney, having made a backroom promise to name a tea partier as his running mate, will ultimately prevail.

Okay, so that's my version. Chances are its no more accurate that the OP's version -- what happens will probably have elements of both versions, but won't play out as either of us have described. Certainly everything about this political season supports the conclusion that most predictions will have to be swallowed.

It should be interesting to watch.

[customerserviceguy]

14. I'm with you through the first two months except for a couple of things

Paul is overestimated, and the fundies think that libertarian equals libertine, especially when you explain Paul's stand on drugs to them. I do think it possible that he will perhaps go over ten percent in Florida, just because that state is a mixed up bag of people from elsewhere, who tend to take their political views along with them when they retire. Arizona may go over a bit stronger for Mitt than you think, it has a sizable number of Mormons in it, and I do think Romney will play his "home state" card in Michigan (as he will in Massachusetts and Utah), and will do well there.

Now as for Super Tuesday and beyond, I disagree with you. I can see Romney winning Alaska, Idaho, North Dakota, and possibly Texas, especially if Perry has endorsed him by that point (admittedly, that one's a long shot, given their enmity so far). If I'm right, then he will continue to look viable, and will soldier on.

Also, you seem to have dismissed the possibility of a third party candidacy by Paul. If he does any better this year than he did in 2008, his minions may rally for him to take that one last shot at the White House, and knowing that it could derail either Gingrich or Romney from winning, he just might do it out of spite.

[Robbins]

15. Republicans

I think Paul will win In Iowa but If Gingrich can pull out a second this Is still a race.Gingrich Is starting to go after Romney's flip
flopping.Bachman Is done after Iowa.Expect a lot ofattacks on Paul before NH.Romney will NH.But If Gingrich or Paul can finish a
strong second that can be spun In their favor.Remember Clinton actully finished second In NH but few remember that now.Romney
will win the Michigan primary and Nevada caucus.Santorm,and Huntsman are done after NH.If Gingrich could finish strong second
In Iowa and NH he could pull out a win In SC.Paul has trouble In SOuth.And Perry can help keep voters from Romney.Romney has
a southern problem In Primarys.If Gingrich can win SC and then win Florida then you have a Romney and Gingrich fight for super tuesday and possibly beyond.Gingrich can do well In primarys In Tradional Republican states where they don't like Romney If Perry
doesn't cut Into the antiromney.And Romney will do well In States that vote for Democrats among Republicans.

This could go longer than some Think.

[opihimoimoi]

16. Noot selfdestructed himself into Moot...his record is horrid..his crimes morbid..his lovers torrid

[Bucky]

28. Your prose florid. And yet Gingrich hasn't dropped much in the polls--that's a myth.

See the GD board. Another it'll be Gingrich argument is acoming.

[opihimoimoi]

30. The dude is a fraud.....its $$$ he is after...he is an EVIL asshole....gives the GOPers a bad name

[spanone]

17. i think the powers that be will not allow such a thing.

[MjolnirTime]

18. Newt didn't qualify in Missouri.

[former9thward]

22. Missouri is a what they call a "beauty contest".

No delegates are awarded in the primary. A caucus about a month later awards delegates.

[onenote]

19. Latest polls from Iowa show Gingrich tanking

You may be right about a Paul upset in Iowa, but its entirely possible that Gingrich could end up fading to fourth or even fifth (behind Santorum and possibly Perry). If Gingrich ends up with under 15 percent in Iowa, he may never recover. While predictions of his getting the nomination assume he will cruise in the southern states, a poor showing among the ultra conservative repubs of Iowa may suggest some holes in that assumption.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/28/cnn-poll-romney-on-top-gingrich-fading-santorum-rising-in-iowa/?hpt=hp_t1

[Motown_Johnny]

20. I doubt Newt can beat Mitt in Michigan

Romney's father was governor here and he still has huge name recognition, especially among older voters.


Here is a link to some polling data: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mi/michigan_republican_presidential_primary-1589.html


As you can see Romney is well ahead here.


I hope you are right, because Newt will be easier to beat, but I fear your predictions for some of the primaries, and this one in particular, is flawed.

[Bucky]

21. Great resource. But look at the dates of the polls you're citing.

First, look at the galloping rollercoaster of who's in first in Republican polls ==> http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/12/ppp-paul-romney-battle-for-iowa.php

Now look at the most recent polls in the source you cited. Where the average has Romney at 33%, the only December poll of likely Republican primary voters has Romney all the way down to 22%. In fact, in those polls, you can see a clear downward trend. That is, the more they get to know Mitt, the less they seem to like him.

Now nationally Mitt's on the upswing, but this is the 3rd time he's been in this position. He may turn out to get the nomination by virtue of beating out Ron Paul as the Anti-Anti-Romney candidate. I don't think any of the Anti-Romney candidates' supporters will go to Romney. They may've been scared off of Gingrich for a while, but unlike Cain & Bachmann (and probably unlike Perry) Gingrich has a political record of coming back from the dead. Perry's recent uptick in national polls is always as weak as his next brain fart.

[Motown_Johnny]

26. Newt's numbers are down too

I think the numbers you are quoting are all nationwide. I was speaking specifically to Michigan and I don't see any more recent polls for the republican primary in Michigan than the one I sited.


It is a pretty good bet Mittens will win Michigan.

[Bucky]

29. No, I was looking at the Michigan numbers you cited. The more recent the poll, the worse Mitt does.

[Lil Missy]

23. Not going to happen. It will be the Mittens. n/t

[A-Schwarzenegger]

24. Bet ya $10,000.

[Orsino]

25. Sorry, but it's gonna be Mitt.

Newt's fifteen minutes as the next-to-last NotMitt* are just about over.

Counting Paul, but excluding Trump's next cock-tease.

[Orsino]

31. Things are smelling less Newty every day.

I may have been wrong. New Hampshire may actually let Huntsman have his chance, too, at being NotMitt.

Gingrich seems just about done, whatever mud he may sling.

[Orsino]

34. Closer...closer.

While not to contradict the OP's very good points about Gingrich's strengths, the juggernaut of MittMoney is simply unstoppable.

I'd like to believe that even a repulsive toad like Gingrich could challenge Romney on the issues, but this particular popularity contest isn't about issues. The GOP was never going to line up behind anyone who didn't look the part. They're going with the tall, handsome man with good hair, and not just because that's where all the money went first.

That I was wrong about Newt's not having a window to look briefly like a viable alternative may be more a measure of Romney's nothingness than of any talents or accomplishments of Gingrich's.

[joshcryer]

27. I like that post, Bucky. You put a lot of thought into it.

Rec for effort. Not sure if I agree, but it'd be epic if you were right. You certainly built a remarkable narrative.

[onenote]

32. Well, now that he has Tawd's endorsement, he's a shoo in

[SomethingFishy]

33. Rove will not let it happen.

Gingrich has so many skeletons they couldn't fit in his damn closet. There are thousands of pages of Public Records tracing Newt's REMOVAL FROM THE POSITION OF SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE ON ETHICS VIOLATIONS. The guy is a crook and the paperwork is available to anyone who wants to see it.

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

35. From your keyboard to The Big Electron's ears. nt

[Bucky]

36. Waaah!!!

I sooo wanted Newt. Still, I did have him coming back in South Carolina. It's not my fault he threw himself on his sword.

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

37. If I thought it'd help I'd almost be tempted to give him money. Can you imagine the

contrast in the general election? I'd love to see his pasty ass get clobbered by Obama. GO NEWT!!!

[onenote]

38. I admire you for acknowledging that your prediction has run aground

And, yes, you did have him winning South Carolina, albeit by around twice what he actually won it by. And it looks like you've missed Florida. And suddenly the calendar doesn't look so good for him.

[Orsino]

39. Even if that could never happen...

...I surely would enjoy the ride if Newt would only dig in his heels for a few more months.

I think that the establishment will marginalize him pretty quickly, but the more of their dirty money they waste on disposing of his campaign, the better.

Gingrich probably considers himself the most viable anti-Mitt, and doesn't understand that he's merely the last, and that the's the last only because he is so despised. In that respect, he actually lost to Bachmann and Perry.