Cancer Incidence May Surge 75% by 2030, Lancet Says

[marmar]

(Bloomberg) The global incidence of cancer may rise more than 75 percent by 2030, led by developing countries, according to research published today in the Lancet journal.

The number of people with cancer in 2030 may rise to 22.2 million, or 0.3 percent of the global population, from 12.7 million in 2008, according to research led by Freddie Bray of the International Agency for Research on Cancer in Lyon, France. The projection is based on the United Nations’s population forecast, the IARC’s database tracking cancer incidence in 184 countries and expected increases in the rates of colorectal, female breast, prostate and, in high-income countries, lung cancer in women.

While improving living standards in lower-income countries may lead to a decrease in infection-related cancers such as cervical and stomach cancer, that may be offset by a surge in the types of cancer associated with smoking, obesity and diet which currently affect mainly richer countries. Poor countries, as measured by the UN’s Human Development Index, may see a doubling in the incidence of cancer to 490,000 in 2030 from 2008, according to the study.

“This study underscores the diversity of cancer as a worldwide occurrence and the extent to which the disease patterns differ from country to country,” the authors said in the article. Targeted interventions are needed to “effectively control the prevalence of lifestyle factors including tobacco avoidance and cessation of smoking, a reduction in alcohol consumption and obesity, and the promotion of increased levels of physical activity.” ....................(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-31/cancer-incidence-may-surge-75-by-2030-lancet-says.html

[xchrom]

1. Du rec. Nt

[lpbk2713]

2. Incidents of skin cancer will surely increase ...

with the destruction of the ozone layer.

[stevedeshazer]

3. Fukushima.

Bet it's even higher than that.

[applegrove]

4. I worked in the cancer centre of a hospital. They were expanding 80% because they knew the need

would be there in the years to come.

[JVS]

5. Cancer and heart disease deaths are the halmarks of a developing country succeeding.

It's perverse in a way, but these sicknesses are more prevalent in countries that are well off enough that more acute diseases don't kill the population at younger ages.

[HiPointDem]

6. The main reason being that the population as a whole is aging and diagnosis reaching more people.