Study: one of the most popular theories for America's huge crime drop is wrong

[Recursion]

http://www.vox.com/2016/1/14/10767992/crime-lead-theory-study

Huh. I had been a proponent of this theory, too...

One of the more exotic explanations for America's incredible decades-long drop in crime is the lead theory. As the theory goes, we know that lead exposure is really harmful — it can cause learning disabilities, lower IQs, impulsivity, and aggressive behavior. So when America began taking lead out of its gasoline, it reduced all these bad outcomes — and crime, statistics show, fell right alongside rates of lead exposure.

A new study published in the Journal of Quantitative Criminology suggests, however, that this correlation may not exist at all, calling the supposed drop in both lead and crime a statistical "artifact" based on faulty crime data. And that means one of the most popular theories about the crime drop could be wrong.

First, the study acknowledges that it's possible to find a correlation between lead and crime with some data — specifically, the FBI's Uniform Crime Report (UCR). According to the study, serious crime levels, measured by UCR, and lead exposure, measured by gasoline lead consumption per person, have a "very strong" relationship. So based on the UCR data, one would expect crime to go down as lead exposure goes down.

But the study argues that UCR, which uses data from police departments across the country, is unreliable. It compares UCR to two different measures: the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) and homicides, which are typically considered the most reliable proxy for measuring serious crime levels. While NCVS figures closely correlate with the homicide rate, UCR does not, suggesting that UCR is much less reliable.

Looks like that mostly leaves Roe v. Wade and mass incarceration.

[Spider Jerusalem]

1. Study is BS because it fails to recognise that America is not the world.

The same drop in crime rates coinciding with the removal of lead from gasoline has been observed around the world, not just in the US.

[Wellstone ruled]

2. One key measure that is missing is

not only heavy metals being removed from the environment,there was study many years back that did a associative comparative of Unemployment and Crime. Number one cause of crime was in that study Social Economic Effects,meaning if you can provide your self and others in your family group,you become a low risk to society as a criminal. Remember this,empty bellies means empty heads,think about it.