Anyone think Republicans are winning the Presidency?

[HughBeaumont]

Name that candidate now. Name that person now.

Hearing some rumblings that "we're in danger of losing the presidency". Seriously. I'm all ears. Who does it?

Trump? PFFFFFFFFFFFFFFT. Guy's a carnival barker and a comedy act. Trust me; once reason sets in, if he wins the primary, it's barely. He doesn't want to be president, he wants to be dictator. That's something he and his idiot supporters don't seem to get.

Carson? Good as done. The guy's too whacked out on Jesus Juice to be taken seriously.

Cruz? LGBTQI-hating Christo-Fascists aren't fashionable on young voters with a brain stem. Or GenX voters. Or GenY voters. The only people who would vote for this guy are white, male and in the autumn of their lives.

Rubio? Not happening. You forget whatever the guy says five minutes after he says it.

Fiorina? Yeah, let's vote for politically expedient and facially repellent ex-CEOs who fire 30,000 workers while voting pay raises for themselves. Remember Mitten's quote of "I like firing people"? Think that times 30.

The point is that nobody from the GOP field can be sold or reinvented as a moderate like they did George Dubya. Even if they tried to, they couldn't. Mitt, already somewhat of a wingnut, had no choice but to cater to the TeaHadi nutjobs. He lost huge.

The days of an extremist (and when I say "extremist", I'm talking "embracing the opposite of everything that made this country politically and economically sound&quot garnering appeal on a national level are over. What works in localized politics doesn't play out to the big picture. Our population at large is no longer down with a Revelation-lovin' nutbar at the helm of the United States. You might not think the Bewsh years aren't in the American voter's minds . . . but they are.

No one wants to go back to that, and while they're not forthcoming about it, it's there. Make no mistake.

That's not to say "It's in the bag". Get out and vote to make it happen and crush these bastards with force.

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

1. Only if Hillary is our nom.

Nobody else can bring out every possible Republican voter while turning off so many Dem voters.

[HughBeaumont]

7. A general hangup with Hillary is this:

What does she STAND for?

Political weather vanes or those who run on a candidacy of "Let's work within reason" when you got a Paul Ryan-run congress never sat well with me.

Is she going to be the same candidate that supported offshore outsourcing in the 2000s or is she taking a left turn on economics? Is she going to rein in war spending or will she go to political expediency like she did when the Failure Fuhrer wanted his folly wars?

I still don't think an extremist beats Hillary, but that general election is close enough to be . . . . well, worrisome.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

21. I'm afraid that's wishful thinking on your part.

The idea that Sanders is more electable than Clinton is not one taken seriously by anyone who doesn't want it to be true so much they're willing to ignore the evidence.

Here's a more serious analysis:

http://www.vox.com/2016/2/5/10923304/bernie-sanders-general-election

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

22. Really, cause I've seen polls that say different.

But I guess pollsters are all just 'wishful thinkers' who 'back Sanders'.

Nice argument from the middle there in that vox peace.

Sorry that Sanders is not one of your 'Very Serious People'.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

24. You mean the reports on head-to-head matchups?

At this point those have virtually zero predictive power. Just because they say what you want to hear doesn't mean you should listen to them.

Incidentally, Vox is anything but "the middle" - it's a left-wing website. A large part of the flaw in Sanders' campaign is that it looks as though he and most of his supporters really believe that the middle of American politics is Vox, and don't grasp how much to the right of it the centre of mass of American politics is.

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

26. I wasn't saying vox was 'the middle', I was saying the argument presented was an

argument from the middle - that we 'avoid extremes' and need to 'go to the middle' to win.

The problem with that argument is that Sanders is NOT extreme. He pushes policies that polling has shown most Americans agree with. But then you don't think polls mean anything, so of course you dismiss them as nonsense and Sanders as 'extreme'.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

29. No, I don't think *those* polls mean anything.

Some polls give you more information about how likely things are to happen in the future* than other polls. To work out which ones are which, you look at previous instances of similar polls, and see how well they correlated to what actually happened. The study of this is called political science; the people who all say that Sanders would be very unlikely to win are specialists in it.

"We need to go to the middle to win" is an oversimplification of a basically correct position. Projecting all your political positions onto a one-dimensional axis and seeing where you fall on it doesn't actually tell you very much about a politician. What's far more important is presenting the impression of being moderate and pragmatic, rather than ideology-driven. Marco Rubio is an example of a politician whose actual views would fall at a fairly rightwards centile, but is very good at that presentation. Sanders is actively averse to it.

Also, yes, I'm afraid that despite your denial, Sanders is a fairly extreme leftist by American standard. If you were to take 100 Americans and say "do you think Bernie Sanders is to the left or to the right of you politically?", only a very small number would say "the right", and a lot would say "the left".



* Important nuance: it's helpful to think of polls, and political science in general, as giving you not information about what is going to happen in the future, but information about how likely it is that things are going to happen in the future.

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

30. So wait, I have to only listen to your political scientists to know what the 'correct position'

is politically, but as to whether or not 'Bernie Sanders is extreme', I have to go talk to 100 random people, who don't have the same training as those political scientists? What you're actually claiming is now not that 'Bernie Sanders is extreme', but that 'The public has been trained to label Bernie Sanders as extreme.' And yes, they have. Clinton has been pushing that label. But the mere fact that Sanders 'is to the left' of many people does not make him 'extreme'. It just makes him to the left, just as the majority of Americans are going to see every Republican politician out there as 'to the right' of them.

But we don't get to vote on a spectrum. We get to choose one person, and one person only. So whether Bernie or Hillary gets the nomination, voters are not going to be comparing them to each other, only against the Republican candidate who got the nod. And that's what those polls you don't think matter measure. How Bernie or Hillary stack up against those single individuals they might be up against in the general. And people aren't voting for 'who is more to the left or right of me'. They're voting for who, of these two specific people, do I most want to see in office, or least want to see in office.

And that's where Hillary fails. More people dislike her enough to be apathetic about electing her rather than one of the Republican clowns. And more like Bernie enough to vote for him, rather than a Republican clown. (And yeah, those favorability numbers come from polls. You know, the tools 'serious political scientists' use as empirical evidence when they're not just making logical fallacy arguments based on argument from the middle.

[ohheckyeah]

87. Wishful thinking is right the want a horse race.

Eveb Bernie has to know that most of what he's spouting is bullshit.He's just another politician.

[Nevernose]

72. And here's one with facts:

http://huffpost.com/us/entry/hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-electability_b_9077520.html

I like Hillary. Shit, I liked her back when she was a governor's wife. It is CRAZY to underestimate the amount of vitriol and venom that the right wing has heaped on her. There has been, literally, an entire Clinton-bashing INDUSTRY for 25 years.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

85. You very effectively undermine your own argument.

Yes, Sanders has higher favourability ratings at the moment. That's because the Republicans desperately want to run against him, and have been largely giving him a pass. But if he were nominated, he'd suddenly find himself subjected to what Clinton has been getting for decades, and his numbers would plummet.

By contrast, as you say, Clinton has already been subjected to full-on attack for a long period; all the much there is to be flung has already been flung many times over.

[Nevernose]

86. Exactly. Bernie's future poll #s are hypothetical

Thanks to the (actual, very real) vast right wing conspiracy, Hilary's negative numbers are probably not going to move much. Bernie polling negative, however, is purely hypothetical.

Honestly, Bernie's success so far amazes me as much as everybody, but I'm assuming it's because people perceive him as "genuine."

DU makes me feel weird at primary time -- and this will be my fourth DU primary! I can prefer one candidate (in this case, Bernie) over another, and still be thrilled to vote for a different Dem in the general election. Hillary's an awesome Democrat, and so far the worst slander I've heard against her (from the Democratic side) is that she's a politician who behaves exactly like a politician. In the end, though, we all need to vote how we feel, not on who we think can win; pragmatism must be mixed with passion.

[LWolf]

78. +1

[In_The_Wind]

2. I can guarantee two Democratic votes.

[Katashi_itto]

66. I guarantee zero if Hillary is the nom.

[newfie11]

3. They couldn't even figure out how to get to their podium

For the debates last night

[HughBeaumont]

5. I saw that.

I couldn't have enough facepalms going on.

Like Hyde said on That 70s Show: "And you're still having trouble DECIDING???"

[orpupilofnature57]

4. Only if the ' Third Way ' wins out or We elect a Dealer and not a leader. Do I think Trump will Win

? No

[Bucky]

81. Trump knew exactly what to say to win Republican votes and said it repeatedly.

Don't think for a second he doesn't have a plan to do the same with general election voters in the Fall. Baby wants that brass ring. PR wise, I think he could make mincemeat out of Clinton.

[orpupilofnature57]

84. I agree

[TreasonousBastard]

6. It's easy to make fun of them, but...

we made fun of Nixon, Reagan, and Bush the Lesser-- and they not only won, but won second terms.

No doubt they feel the same way about Clinton and Obama.

I make no bets on the whims of the American electorate.

[HughBeaumont]

8. See, that's the difference.

They successfully sold those candidates as moderates because there was either no internet or the American people didn't really know any better, they just saw the name "Bush" (that, and the Democrats just ran either weak opponents or, in Gore's case, horrible campaigns).

We're a lot more technologically involved and evolved. We can bring up a politician's past and damaging statements. There is no way any of these candidates can be sold as a moderate to have a broad appeal. America isn't the Sarah Palinized nation scared Democrats think it is.

I look at the GOP field and I don't see a single one that could seriously be president. Not ONE. They're all like Dan Quayle on steroids.

History practically fishes to find a good thing that happened during 43's reign of error. History is turning substantially on the Nixon and Reagan legacies. America realized they made a mistake with all three; mistakes so profound they aren't to be repeated.

[ananda]

11. Gore actually won the 2000 election.

The SCOTUS decided to SELECT Bush.

And Gore and the Dems didn't put up a fight.

Sanders will though!

Go Sanders!

[TreasonousBastard]

12. "History" has always been down on Reagan, Bush, and...

Nixon, but how many Reagan fans bought it? And how many Republicans are admitting what a failure that other Bush was?

Of course the GOP filed scares the crap out of me, too, but I don't see any evidence the electorate is any better educated than it has been in the past.

If anything, electoral choices seem to be more emotional than logical these days.

[Reter]

34. Reagan was never sold as a moderate

He was always to the right of his establishment. Dole and McCain were viewed as moderates and still lost handedly, so perception doesn't always make a difference.

[MillennialDem]

18. There's too much of a demographic spike for that now though. 17 year olds now are extremely left and

every day another one of them celebrates their 18th birthday. Another 24 year old decides "fuck this shit, I need to start voting".

Hell even the "older" millennials are becoming more left wing as they get older (shocking, but true).

If you just look at new voters, provided they vote at 2012 turnout levels and a 65-35 D/R split we are going to get 2,000,000 new votes in 2016.

Combine that with republicans having a higher die off rate and we will have a 2,600,000 voter advantage over what we had in 2012. This would be like Mitt Romney getting 7,600,000 more votes than he got just to barely eek out a win.

[TreasonousBastard]

19. That would be good if it works out in practice.

[MillennialDem]

23. It will

[former9thward]

45. People always predict the end of the Republican party.

In reality it never happens. The Gallup polling organization says there is now more red states than blue for the first time in its history.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/188969/red-states-outnumber-blue-first-time-gallup-tracking.aspx

[MillennialDem]

48. I never said the end of the republican party - especially not at the state

level. I just said whoever the democrats nominate crushes the republican in the presidential.

[former9thward]

49. I assume you are ignoring all the head to head polling.

Cruz and Rubio beat Clinton and she is over Trump by jsut 4.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html

[awoke_in_2003]

32. And never bet

against the stupidity of the American people.

[RDANGELO]

9. Their nominee is either going to be an obvious psychopath in Trump or

someone who is completely compromised my the Koch brothers and big money. We can have someone who is completely uncompromised.

[barbtries]

10. If people vote,

No republican stands a chance.

[GreenEyedLefty]

16. ^^This.

When Democratic voters turn out, we win.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

17. And if we have a candidate to get excited about ...

... then Democratic voters turn out.

[PFunk1]

13. Actually I do. And this is how.

It's called "Pyrrhic victory" or "Win the battle, Lose the War".

Hillary unleashes her 'dirty' tricks bag (super-delegates, slime attacks, etc) on Bernie to win the nod. But in doing so many indies, Bernie supporters, Millennials, and others are PO'd enough to not vote, and sit this one out. In-short demoralize the democratic party base big time .

The Repugs on the other hand finally settle on a candidate and with MSM help prop, clean him up to be presentable to the general public-while heaping propaganda to further influence those to sit-out the election along with major election rigging and other crap to help in this.

All of this combined in the end will get just enough gullible idiots to win them the white house.

If you think this wont happen. A lot of folks said Bush couldn't win the white house either.

[rug]

14. No.

[B Calm]

15. We need the young voters to come out to put the icing on the cake.

I find it hard to believe any of these Republican clowns have a chance, but I have seen the GOP steal elections before.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

20. Rubio would probably beat Clinton, and anyone against except maybe Trump would beat Sanders.

The Democrats have held the presidency for eight years. That's a massive electoral drawback.

I think that if the Republicans nominate a plausible candidate then they will be the favourites to win regardless of who the Democrats nominate.

Fortunately, of the three Republican front runners, only one - Rubio - is plausible. One - Cruz - is semi plausible, and I'd give him 50/50 against Clinton (although I may be being pessimistic there), and one - Trump - is probably virtually unelectable under normal circumstances (although I wouldn't totally rule him out).

Of course, if the Democrats nominate a self-proclaimed socialist then the Republicans can essentially win the presidency just by showing up, even if they nominate a three-legged gerbil. Against Sanders, Rubio and Cruz would be virtual shoe-ins.

But there's a Republican running who doesn't meet the three-legged gerbil test. Trump vs Sanders is a more interesting matchup. If both parties simultaneously nominate candidates who would be virtually unelectable under normal circumstances, I have no idea what will happen. There are precedents for one reality-challenged candidate running (Goldwater and McGovern leap to mind), but never two against one another. A Bloomberg victory doesn't strike me as out of the question. But certainly, Trump's only plausible path to the White House lies through Sanders, and vice versa.

So my guesses at the odds are roughly

Odds on Democrat winning matchup
[div style="display:table; padding:0em 0.5em 0em 0.5em;"]
[div style="display:table-row;padding:inherit;"]
[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]
[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]Clinton
[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]Sanders

[div style="display:table-row;padding:inherit;"]
[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]Trump
[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]8/10
[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]???/10

[div style="display:table-row;padding:inherit;"]
[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]Cruz
[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]5/10
[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]2/10

[div style="display:table-row;padding:inherit;"]
[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]Rubio
[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]3/10
[div style="display:table-cell;padding:inherit;"]1/10




I think I'm probably erring on the side of pessimism in Clinton/Trump and Clinton/Cruz, and of optimism in Sanders/Cruz.

[HughBeaumont]

25. How does Rubio get sold as a moderate?

How does Cruz get . . . that's what no one is answering. How do any of these nutbars get sold as moderates in technologically advanced 2016??

What, is some pie-in-the-sky event happening where Trump all of a sudden sees the viability in Medicare for All, or for Cruz to stop hating/fearing the LGBTQI community? Do all of their war hard-ons magically go away with a little help from our press? Do the past actions/votes of Fiorina, Rubio and Jeb! get 1984-scrubbed out somehow?

You're somehow believing that what works in localized American politics is going to play out on a national level. It doesn't work that way anymore.

And if you want me to take this seriously, ace the red-baiting. No one under 45 cares about that here.

[NewJeffCT]

68. Rubio

is not screaming that Mexicans are rapists and that he's going to bomb the shit out of ISIS. So, that automatically makes him a moderate in the eyes of the media, even if his policies are just as radical.

[4dsc]

27. nope.

EOM

[edhopper]

28. Don't underestimate

how little most voters pay attention.

[phantom power]

31. What makes you think Trump's supporters don't know he wants to be a dictator?

It's what they like about him.

[Reter]

33. Absolutely, unless Trump is their nominee or runs third party

I don't see the Democrats winning three terms in a row, especially if Hillary is the nominee. I am a realist. While others were saying it wouldn't be so bad in 2010, I knew from the Summer we were in for a pounding. Same thing in 2014.

Remember, I'm responding to the question of what I "think" will happen, so alerters can save their time. I will do everything I can to prove myself wrong.

[HughBeaumont]

36. Who do either of our candidates lose to? Name that person, right now.

Localized politics aren't national politics. Whole different ballgame. People remember what happened when Repubs controlled all three branches - it was a consummate disaster and you cannot reinvent history. Want a 7-2 Opus Dei Supreme Court? How's about healthcare getting MORE Draconian instead of less? How about more useless wars and dead kids? Women's issues? Labor rights? Human Rights? Look for those to be depleted or eliminated.

Let's put aside the fact that not a single member of the GOP Comedy Cabal can be sold or reinvented as a moderate. What happened when somewhat straight-talking and semi-moderate John McCain (yes, I know, but that's how he came off), who was polling near even with (or in some polls, ahead of) Barack Obama, took on Grifterella as his VP Candidate and allowed her a microphone? Titanic, everyone. She refused to placate the center, fed red meat to the goose-steppers and dragged McCain down with her.

We're done with Christo-Fascists. A lot of these "candidates" aren't even hiding the label. It's like they revel in being an asshole. A few even have no problem with theocracy.

[Odin2005]

35. Only if they are running against Hillary will they win.

Bernie will wipe the floor with these idiots.

[nadinbrzezinski]

37. Historically the WH changes parties every two terms or so

with just a couple exceptions since WW II.

So yes, I think they will win unless a few things happen. But statistically they should. And I know this is not popular.

[HughBeaumont]

38. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Ask Reagan/Bush The Smarter.

Also, the GOP field was never this painfully and openly extremist. Sorry, statistics or not, hitching their wagon to supremacists and religious right wing nuts isn't going to help them at all.

[nadinbrzezinski]

40. I am just going over how Americans vote

it is theirs to lose.

[Macattack1]

39. ok..here goes after "lurking for years"!

hi to all you...I have to be up front about who I am...I am basically a conservative..BUT!..I have an open mind, and have been following all your posts on DU for YEARS...why? because believe it or not, I have an open mind to the liberal causes...and I have been moved by Bernie Sanders...that's right..he has done something to my thinking, that I never thought was possible as a 57 year old, former Marine, pretty solid conservative...he has made me re-think EVERYTHING.
I am here to say, to the Hillary supporters..that I think you should be VERY careful about writing Bernie off...I have never given him much credence over the years...but always kind of liked his balls...now that he is running, I have been listening to him...and his last 2 ads on tv...lets just say they caused me to choke up, and actually tear up.. If this is happening to me..it is happening to many other conservatives, who are disillusioned with the Republican party...and not happy about any of our candidates...I am ACTUALLY considering voting for Bernie Sanders...I almost can't believe I'm saying it...but I've said it....he could just be the one....

Flame away if you must, but I respect all of you...

[tabasco]

41. George Fucking Imbecile AWOL Bush was (s)elected over a Silver Star war hero.

Yes, the republican, no matter how repulsive, could win -- thanks to decades of subversive right-wing propaganda on the TV and radio. The telescreens are here.

[Marrah_G]

42. I never thought W could win a second election

[madokie]

43. I do believe Bernie is our best hope

too many people Hate Hillary, especially here in Ok. From what I read on the internets thats pretty much the case from shore to shore, gulf to canadian border.

Plus Hillary scares me. I remember a few years ago, more like a dozen or so, I thought, hell, I believed that Hillary would be our first woman President but that feeling left me a long time ago. Shit fire and save the matches, I can't even find a flicker of that anymore.

If Hillary hadn't been taking all that money from the ptb pretty much these last couple decades maybe I'd see things differently.

But the truth be known I like what the old socialist from Vermont has to say and the way he thinks. I'm going with Bernie all the way

To answer your question though, NO. I don't think they have a snowballs chance in hell of winning this one, 'specially if Bernie is at the head of our ticket. With the right VP thrown in the mix there is no way that the 'CONs can win. Senator Warren is as passionate as Bernie is on what the hell is going on and how to fix it so I'll always up to the point of his naming his VP pick that he will ultimately ask Elizabeth Warren. How Fucking awesome is that thought, I ask?

[kairos12]

44. Forget the candidates. Their winning is based on dark money and voter suppression.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

46. If Sanders is the nominee, it's another McGovern and we lose!

[karadax]

47. Democrats are 1 for 5 in attempts for a third consecutive presidential term.

History has it in for Bernie / Hillary.

Myself I am hoping for a historic youth voter turnout. If it doesn't happen I do believe Republicans will win.

Nobody can afford to sit back and arm chair quarterback this thing. Gotta get out the vote ! Even a conversation at a coffee shop is better than doing nothing at all.

[Skittles]

50. good analysis, except.....

I think Trump's idiot supporters would be FINE with him as a dicatator

[gwheezie]

51. Slim chance of dems keeping the wh

No matter who we nominate and I don't see majority in Congress either. We have to support whoever is nominated. It's that simple. If we are to win, the bitter losers in the primary fight have to get over it.

[doc03]

54. I agree 100% n/t

[HughBeaumont]

64. THERE. ARE. NO. SERIOUS. CANDIDATES. IN. THE. GOP.

They're all red-baiting, science-denying, labor-hating, cultural dinosaur extremists.

America's memories aren't that short.

They all got Bewsh the Dumber's reign of fail in the backs of their minds.

"All Three Branches" will be "Game Over" for America.

McCain tanked once he gave Sarah Palin a platform, and now he's slinked off and we can't get rid of her.

Mitt Romney dropped like a rock once Paul Ryan got the VP nomination.

All these idiots can do is attack, attack, attack, attack because they suck dead dogs on the issues. Today's modern Republican is Bewsh on Steroids.

America wants someone who'll listen, not more tax wasting wars, slashed benefits and tax breaks for the wealthy.

[NewJeffCT]

70. Rubio, Kasich or Christie

will be sold by the media as moderates - if they can win the nomination. It doesn't matter what they said - remember, Mitt Romney was spewing a lot of right wing bullshit in 2012 to win the nomination, and then did a complete 180 at the first debate (Etch-A-Sketch) and put a huge dent into Obama's lead (Obama was up 10+ points before that first debate), despite running a lousy campaign. And, while Obama won, it was 51-47 - reasonably close.

[HughBeaumont]

73. Again I ask, HOW??

Do moderates openly hate the LGBTQI community?

Do moderates think more wars are necessary?

Do moderates try to kill the bargaining power of workers?

Do moderates contribute to Lehman Brothers or Faux News?

Are moderates disdainful of science and think global warming is a hoax?

And why are we still talking about a guy who, by all rights, sounds like a minor character on The Sopranos??

Mitt Romney spewed a lot of right wing bullshit DURING his campaign. Maybe he should have realized there's this little thing called "The Internet" where nothing bad you say escapes??

[NewJeffCT]

75. Yes

Romney spewed a lot of RW bullshit, but he also was Mr Moderate in that first debate when people were actually paying attention. Suddenly, the Obama lead of 8-12 points and increasing was down to 3-5 points. (The 47% comment was before the debates)

Despite running a gaffe filled campaign that lacked a sophisticated GOTV machine like Obama's, Romney was able to be within 4 points of Obama nationally and less than 1 point in Florida and 2 points in Ohio.

If results mimic Iowa and Democratic turnout is down and Republican turnout is up, it would be very easy to flip the results nationally in 2016.

[justiceischeap]

71. Sadly I've seen "BernieBros" state if Sanders isn't the nominee

They'll vote for Trump. Which makes me think BernieBros are either a) really misogynistic pigs or b) actually Repub. trolls.

That said, if we can get out the vote no matter the nominee, then, historically, we win.

[doc03]

52. If Sanders is our nominee Trump, Rubio, Cruz, Christy, Jeb

and Kasich. He may have a chance if it is Carson or Fiorina

[BillZBubb]

58. I feel the same if Hillary is our nominee.

She's got more baggage than a fully loaded jumbo jet. She's got higher negatives than Dick Cheney.

[doc03]

59. Saw my first cartoon in the paper today with Bernie wearing a hammer and sickle

talk about swift boating you ain't seen anything yet.

[doc03]

60. Yes and I have seen a lot of so called Democrats pushing that crap here n/t

[HughBeaumont]

63. I need an explanation for the last three.

I've already stated what I think of Rubio, Cruz and Trump . . . they're extremists in the worst sense of the word, historical revisionists at their ugliest, science ignorant and openly hate labor, women and the LGBTQI community. That narrows their voting pool down to aging Nixon/Reagan white guys, dumb "Miss Me Yet" white guys and dumb young white guys.

But the trio of loser govs?

COME on.

The FIRST thing Kat$hit tried to do when he got in office was defang unions permanently. SB5 failed by an overwhelming amount here. He's a two term governor only because of a bad economy and Ed FitzGerald being one of the worst Democratic candidates in Ohio history. Oh yeah, and Ohio's Sea of Tea thinking the election of a Wall $treeter will cure problems caused by Wall $treet. So, yeah, brain surgeons. Not to mention this guy has the charisma of a Lumber Department and is noticeably uncomfortable on PR stops in factories and warehouses.

Jeb! is tanking. It's over. I didn't even initially mention him because he swiped "The Most Politically Tone Deaf Candidate Ever" from Mitt Romney going away. "Please Clap" anyone? DONE. America's sick of the Bushes and it's about damned time. Sooooooo, NO.

And Chris Christie will lose based on the fact that he's Chris Christie. Big mouth Jersey caricatures don't win Presidencies. They just don't.

[Hoyt]

53. We are economic jolt, exploitable terrorist threat, or big Dem candidate mistake away from GOPER win

[yourout]

55. Never under estimate the stupidity of the American electorate.

The fact that W was selected twice should scare everyone

[Mike Nelson]

56. The Republicans may very well win the Presidency...

...and they will appoint judges on all courts to end abortion and kill marriage equality in the name of "religious rights" - if not outright. It's too early to give either party an advantage.... and Bernie's approval ratings have not yet been trashed by the Republicans. They will drive up his negatives. Much of America wants to "Hate Again" after having Obama, Gay getting married, health care, less war, more "foreigners" with different cultures... unfortunately, they can win.

[madamesilverspurs]

57. Republicans don't win.

They finagle.

[mikehiggins]

61. Okay, I'm not a political scientist or a learned academic

but I think, and I think a lot.

And what I think is that the old rules no longer apply.

Sanders and the gang are not susceptible to being stopped. It is quite possible that the campaign will raise a billion dollars or more before this is over and nobody is going to be depressed by losing a primary or not being endorsed by Kissinger or anyone else.

And if we lose this election, well, we'll see how that plays out.

You see, from my point of view,we won't go away because there is no longer anyplace left to go.

We are now entering our Masada.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

62. I'm of the opinion that it will be difficult for the Republicans to nominate a successful candidate

this year (i.e. one with widespread appeal). That being said, we need to resist the urge to be complacent and unify quickly around whoever wins the Democratic nomination to make sure not only that a Republican doesn't win but that we get a good turnout at the local, state, and Congressional levels. If we can get the Senate back, that will at least make life a little easier for Hillary or Bernie in the WH.

[Blue_Tires]

65. I don't think the Repubs can win it, but the Dems can DEFINITELY lose it...

[Blasphemer]

67. I agree with this

The electoral map heavily favors Democrats... the GOP has a very narrow path to victory and they need to run the table on big swing states. They can only do that if Dems don't turn out.

[HughBeaumont]

74. Turnout is everything.

"All Three Branches" . . . remember what happened the last time that occurred?

[NewJeffCT]

69. While it's not always analgous

Democratic turnout was well down in 2016 vs 2008, while Republican turnout was way up. We'll see if it carries through to New Hampshire and beyond, but that is a concern.

[get the red out]

76. Not sure

A lot of people in our country are pissed, not smart.

[longship]

77. Then there are those here who say that they won't vote for the nominee.

If they don't get their way. IMHO, they are like two year olds, pitching an immature tantrum.

This is Democratic Underground, not the ME Underground. We support the Democratic Party here. And we support the Democratic nominee. Don't like that? Than you do not belong here. It is in the DU TOS that you should know by now.

I support and will vote for Bernie Sanders in the MI primary. I will unhesitatingly support and vote for the Democratic nominee. The alternative is too horrible to consider.

Many here should consider that.

[HughBeaumont]

80. This isn't a commentary on the Primaries.

Otherwise, it'd be locked and re-directed.

It's more a commentary on

A) It's implausible to me that America would select a Christo-Fascist extremist considering what Bewsh the Dumber put us through.
B) It's amazing to me that the Repubs are allowed (and in some cases, encouraged) to have extremists but it's somehow bad that our party moves left.

Not that Bernie is an "extremist"; last I checked, a platform of basic economic fairness, shifting economic burden away from the middle/working/poor and long-overdue reforms in de-corporatizing education and health care can hardly be considered "extremist" as they should be deemed "necessary for survival". But some are labeling him an "extremist" and that's just a shortcut to thinking.

[longship]

83. IMHO, it is a shortcut to GOP victory.

As bad as that could be, which is pretty damned horrible given that a fairly large proportion of them think that Obama is the anti-Christ. Can one imagine what they think of either Hillary or Bernie?

That's why I will fully support the Democratic nominee. The alternative is to give into the utter lunacy of the GOP over policy differences when the two parties differ on world views. I refuse to let the rapture happy Republicans gain power as long as there is a breath in my lungs. Make no mistake, the GOP is a wholly theocratic institution.

[Bucky]

79. I think this year will be great year for a 3rd party run, a moderate reformer

Apparently so does Mike Bloomberg.

[Agnosticsherbet]

82. At the end of a two term Democratic President, Republicans have an advantage.

The third term curse is well documented, and for that reason I see 2016 as Republicans to lose.

For a while, I thought the ascendancy of candidates like Trump and Cruz to be proof they are trying to lose, that people frightened of them will turn out against Republicans. I've come to the conclusion that people frightened of their extremism are more likely to sit out the election.

The same goes for the number of people who claim that if "Candidate X doesn't get elected I won't vote."

Finally, if Iowa is predictive of anything, it is that the excitement for Republicans was far more pronounced than for Democrats. Their record turn out led to having both their first and second place candidates receiving more votes than any other winning candidate won in an Iowa Caucus before. If we continue to see Republican Primary turnout significantly higher than Democrats, it will be a very bad sign pointing towards November that says, "Beyond this point there be monsters."

Do I think Republicans can win. Yes, I do. The difference will hinge on turnout.

In November, I will vote to elect the best possible government from the choices given me by the Primary voters. I hope we turn out in big enough numbers to keep the real monsters in their place.

I will not be surprised if we don't.