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Sun Feb 21, 2016, 01:46 AM

the demographics, they are changing..

It has been known for a while that the changing demographics favor the democrats. The country is becoming more and more diversified and the white anglo saxons (I am one of them ) will no longer be the majority in a couple decades or less.
Given that the latino population is increasing fast and that they tend to vote democrat, its looking better and better for us democrats.
At 538, they have this interesting interactive tool they call the "swing-o-matic". Fun to play with :

here


How the Swing-O-Matic works: We started with the results of the 2012 election and the support for each party’s candidate by the five demographic groups. We then adjusted the size of those groups based on four years of population change. When you adjust the vote and turnout above, our model recalculates the results for each state — as well as the Electoral College outcome and the national popular vote — taking into account how much of the state’s electorate the group accounts for.


If their assumptions about turnout for this year as well as current voting trends hold, the nominee will easily carry the country.

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Reply the demographics, they are changing.. (Original post)
drray23 Feb 2016 OP
House of Roberts Feb 2016 #1
LonePirate Feb 2016 #2
drray23 Feb 2016 #3

Response to drray23 (Original post)

Sun Feb 21, 2016, 01:55 AM

1. Right after the 2014 election,

Chris Ladd of the Houston Chronicle (The Chron) conceded the 2016 Dem nominee 257 electoral votes. George Will conceded Hillary 242 electoral votes last year, for the same demographic reasons.

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Response to drray23 (Original post)

Sun Feb 21, 2016, 02:10 AM

2. Thanks for posting. Interesting how easily NC flips blue with small changes.

I honestly do not see how this election is close regardless of our nominee.

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Response to drray23 (Original post)

Sun Feb 21, 2016, 02:12 AM

3. so, if trump is the GOP nominee

He will take a big hit amongst the latino for sure. Using that tool, moving latino vote from 71% D to 80 % D would give us north carolina.. Likewise for only 3 % more african american turnout. That would be a rout for the GOP. I am not sure the results will be widly different, be it Hilary or Bernie.

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