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EdwardBernays

(3,343 posts)
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:04 PM Feb 2016

Polls: Clinton could lose NY to Trump

This discussion thread was locked as off-topic by cyberswede (a host of the General Discussion forum).

Confidential polling data shows Hillary Clinton could lose the presidential election in heavily Democratic New York to Donald Trump as the GOP front-runner’s support grows to the point of being “surprisingly strong,” The Post has learned.

The poll results, from Democratic and Republican legislative races, have surprised many leading Dems, virtually all of whom have endorsed Clinton, while confounding and energizing GOP leaders, many of whom until recently have been opposed to Trump.

...

“In the suburbs and upstate, Trump has a net positive while Hillary is a net negative,” one longtime Republican operative contended. “She’s more of a liability than many Democrats realized.”

Some of the polls also found a greater degree of intensity among Trump’s potential voters than among Clinton’s, a finding that mirrors the stronger GOP turnouts that have been registered in the presidential primaries.


http://nypost.com/2016/02/28/hillary-could-lose-to-trump-in-democratic-new-york/
123 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Polls: Clinton could lose NY to Trump (Original Post) EdwardBernays Feb 2016 OP
And pigs could fly frazzled Feb 2016 #1
Look at the flying pig EdwardBernays Feb 2016 #7
Long Island is not NYS frazzled Feb 2016 #11
ONE county? leftynyc Feb 2016 #18
LI is 2 counties - and they both usually go to Democrats tk2kewl Feb 2016 #39
Uh - NO they don't leftynyc Feb 2016 #45
Congress is a different story tk2kewl Feb 2016 #55
Awwww - I had no idea leftynyc Feb 2016 #56
I'm not delicate at all... just factual tk2kewl Feb 2016 #59
They are unpleasant, aren't they? CoffeeCat Feb 2016 #83
So this internal poll that somebody leaked to the Post nadinbrzezinski Feb 2016 #88
let's go ahead and add in some more presidential elections tk2kewl Feb 2016 #57
You have no idea what you're talking about leftynyc Feb 2016 #62
we were discussing how LI votes, not Bernie Sanders... tk2kewl Feb 2016 #64
Sweetie - you don't have the chops leftynyc Feb 2016 #66
btw... how did you come up with your user name leftynyc? tk2kewl Feb 2016 #67
I've had this screen name leftynyc Feb 2016 #80
oh, and btw... i was not trying to embarrass you... tk2kewl Feb 2016 #73
No - I never let leftynyc Feb 2016 #81
The Post... really JCMach1 Feb 2016 #2
Shooting the messenger EdwardBernays Feb 2016 #4
I am expected to believe NY likes the Glorious Leader that much...? JCMach1 Feb 2016 #9
Read the link EdwardBernays Feb 2016 #10
That poll is different from the one being touted by the story... That main poll 'supposedly' also JCMach1 Feb 2016 #14
The Post is a piece of shit. shenmue Feb 2016 #12
New York? SoLeftIAmRight Feb 2016 #3
New York Post - Confidential polling - This is a joke, right? Agnosticsherbet Feb 2016 #5
"confidential polling data" looks like big media is in the tank for sanders nt msongs Feb 2016 #6
Click the link EdwardBernays Feb 2016 #8
the article conflates a real poll (Siena) with this 'Confidential Poll'... JCMach1 Feb 2016 #19
The confidential poll is an internal poll nadinbrzezinski Feb 2016 #42
Remember Romney's? JCMach1 Feb 2016 #111
Yup, some of them, like all pollsq nadinbrzezinski Feb 2016 #112
Insurgency, not Civil War as the turmoil is largely outside of the party proper... JCMach1 Feb 2016 #114
Well I am looking at all this nadinbrzezinski Feb 2016 #115
The last available Sienna poll mercuryblues Feb 2016 #70
Hey, don't go confusing the OP with facts and stuff. lpbk2713 Feb 2016 #79
If Clinton wins the GE, I'm not sure who will be more upset: the Repubs or much of DU. LonePirate Feb 2016 #13
The Republican establishment will be relieved. EL34x4 Feb 2016 #23
Does that mean she's doing something right? Liberal_Stalwart71 Feb 2016 #101
Well Andy823 Feb 2016 #107
Confidential polling from the NY Post? leftynyc Feb 2016 #15
To much of a snob to click the link EdwardBernays Feb 2016 #30
Long Island is not representitive of the state of New York Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Feb 2016 #32
Riiiight EdwardBernays Feb 2016 #35
LOL - ONE county leftynyc Feb 2016 #43
She beat Lazy Lazio because he didn't do enough campaigning. RoccoR5955 Feb 2016 #46
LOL - that's pretty funny leftynyc Feb 2016 #48
That is becasue Lazio did not put his campaign RoccoR5955 Feb 2016 #51
So fucking what? leftynyc Feb 2016 #53
People upstate do not like Clinton RoccoR5955 Feb 2016 #61
She managed to win her senate leftynyc Feb 2016 #63
No more and no less than no matter what, you're gonna say it's valid. LanternWaste Feb 2016 #54
it is pretty representative actually tk2kewl Feb 2016 #76
sienna poll mercuryblues Feb 2016 #82
Another Eeyore post, this one c/o Murdoch BeyondGeography Feb 2016 #16
You mean my vote might actually count? Depaysement Feb 2016 #17
At issue isn't whether Hillary Clinton loses New York. She won't. EL34x4 Feb 2016 #20
Good. Then my vote in the general election will not matter. RoccoR5955 Feb 2016 #47
"Confindential polling" from the NY Post. Atman Feb 2016 #21
Didn't click the link huh? EdwardBernays Feb 2016 #25
And what percentage of LI is NY? Atman Feb 2016 #37
It is not from the post nadinbrzezinski Feb 2016 #44
Could you post where you got THAT information? ... 1StrongBlackMan Feb 2016 #84
carefully read the article nadinbrzezinski Feb 2016 #85
IOWs, you have nothing to indicate that there is, in fact, ... 1StrongBlackMan Feb 2016 #87
yup, you go tell Nate Silver nadinbrzezinski Feb 2016 #90
I didn't say anything about there not being such a thing as internals ... 1StrongBlackMan Feb 2016 #94
The words used in the write up are quite clear, nadinbrzezinski Feb 2016 #96
Ms. Neutral Arbiter of Fact ... 1StrongBlackMan Feb 2016 #105
Believe it or not, this is part of the soup nadinbrzezinski Feb 2016 #106
What is it with the personal attack allegation ... 1StrongBlackMan Feb 2016 #108
Nope, not allegation nadinbrzezinski Feb 2016 #109
I don't think he'll be the nominee. RichGirl Feb 2016 #22
He's denounced him EdwardBernays Feb 2016 #29
The Sanders supporters desperation sets in.nt sufrommich Feb 2016 #24
Lol EdwardBernays Feb 2016 #27
New York Post - owned by Rupert Murdoch. What do you expect? Initech Feb 2016 #26
Click the link maybe? EdwardBernays Feb 2016 #28
are you mercuryblues Feb 2016 #91
Stop it already Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Feb 2016 #31
Like this? EdwardBernays Feb 2016 #34
not very 'confidential' if it's in the nypost spanone Feb 2016 #33
Check the NYTs EdwardBernays Feb 2016 #36
link to this story in the times? spanone Feb 2016 #38
Your mileage will vary why this was leaked to the NY Post nadinbrzezinski Feb 2016 #50
Right, the NY Post is not fit for cat litter. Kelvin Mace Feb 2016 #40
They do use it for RoccoR5955 Feb 2016 #49
Will no one think of the birds and the dead fish? Kelvin Mace Feb 2016 #89
Doubt it. I live on Long Island Nightjock Feb 2016 #41
'If we are going to nominate someone who 50% of our people can't stand, elleng Feb 2016 #52
can't believe the level of denial around here Macattack1 Feb 2016 #58
As an upstate NY resident -- DeadLetterOffice Feb 2016 #60
it was a Sienna College poll of LI voters tk2kewl Feb 2016 #78
Uh huh... RoccoR5955 Feb 2016 #92
The state hasn't gone red in a presidential election since Reagan DeadLetterOffice Feb 2016 #95
I guess you forget Pataki. RoccoR5955 Feb 2016 #97
We voted for Pataki for president? When did that happen??? DeadLetterOffice Feb 2016 #99
You can scratch off Michigan and Ohio too Purveyor Feb 2016 #65
Really? EarlG Feb 2016 #68
EarlG, note this is his followup to pushing folks to declare "Bernie or Bust", i.e. don't support stevenleser Feb 2016 #120
Sanders fanatics are getting so sad with their desperation that they're coming across Liberal_Stalwart71 Feb 2016 #69
No but we are being realists RoccoR5955 Feb 2016 #93
We don't know that really. As we saw today, the polls shifted and polls shift on a daily basis. Liberal_Stalwart71 Feb 2016 #98
Ok if there is a growing number RoccoR5955 Feb 2016 #100
Growing numbers: Senater Sasse and Rep. Mo Brooks. Now Romney's campaign manager is on Liberal_Stalwart71 Feb 2016 #102
Interesting... RoccoR5955 Feb 2016 #103
The post that Big Dog just posted is another example... Liberal_Stalwart71 Feb 2016 #110
Yeah RoccoR5955 Feb 2016 #116
Christie Todd Whitman and Senator Ron Johnson (WI) both said that they won't support Trump. Liberal_Stalwart71 Feb 2016 #118
That's a distinct possibility. lpbk2713 Feb 2016 #104
Yuo mean the story that Politico broke on Saturdy nadinbrzezinski Feb 2016 #113
New York, no. But maybe PA davidn3600 Feb 2016 #71
This kind of crap belongs on GD-P Andy823 Feb 2016 #72
Wrong forum! Didn't you get that message before posting? B Calm Feb 2016 #74
I am afraid of a trump win. Cavallo Feb 2016 #75
I cannot say I am surprised. hifiguy Feb 2016 #77
The NY Post? Seriously? It's one click away from the National Enquirer. RBInMaine Feb 2016 #86
Jesus H. Christ, please lock this mess! n/t VOX Feb 2016 #117
Nonsense from the Post is your followup to pushing Bernie or Bust? stevenleser Feb 2016 #119
Ha-ha. OK. You go with that. LannyDeVaney Feb 2016 #121
Should this really be in this forum? book_worm Feb 2016 #122
Locking... cyberswede Feb 2016 #123

frazzled

(18,402 posts)
1. And pigs could fly
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:07 PM
Feb 2016

NY Post. "Confidential polling data." Need we say more?

EdwardBernays

(3,343 posts)
7. Look at the flying pig
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:09 PM
Feb 2016

A publicly disclosed Siena College poll of Long Island voters last week found Trump narrowly beating Clinton among Long Island voters, 41 percent to 38 percent...

frazzled

(18,402 posts)
11. Long Island is not NYS
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:12 PM
Feb 2016

She won her last senate election in the state 67% to 31%.

And that's a premature poll (we've been told to ignore all polls before the two party nominees are confirmed), which totals only 79% of voters, in one area.

 

leftynyc

(26,060 posts)
18. ONE county?
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:21 PM
Feb 2016

And that's supposed to represent ALL NEW YORKERS? The desperation is getting rancid.

 

tk2kewl

(18,133 posts)
39. LI is 2 counties - and they both usually go to Democrats
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:59 PM
Feb 2016

Nassau pop 1,349,233
Suffolk pop 1,499,273

NYS pop 19,607,100

LI = ~15% of the state pop

 

leftynyc

(26,060 posts)
45. Uh - NO they don't
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:10 PM
Feb 2016

usually go for Democrats so now I know you don't know shit about Long Island. Where the fuck do you think Pete King represents? Just stop digging, you're only embarrassing yourself.

 

tk2kewl

(18,133 posts)
55. Congress is a different story
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:20 PM
Feb 2016

Congress is a different story. King is my Rep. I live in Nassua Co. and do in fact know what I am talking about.

2012
http://www.politico.com/2012-election/results/president/new-york/

2008
http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/map.html

2004
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_New_York,_2004

should i keep going?

btw.. nice mouth

 

leftynyc

(26,060 posts)
56. Awwww - I had no idea
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:31 PM
Feb 2016

you were such a delicate flower. If you think donnie can win ny based on a poll of Long Islanders, you're version of reality is that of those who love those special mushrooms. Not gonna happen. Want to lose Long Island? Run a candidate who wants to raise taxes.

 

tk2kewl

(18,133 posts)
59. I'm not delicate at all... just factual
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:32 PM
Feb 2016

you on the other hand have no idea what your talking about and are quite unpleasant

CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)
83. They are unpleasant, aren't they?
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 05:32 PM
Feb 2016

The hive seems unusually angry, paranoid and feral-like lately.

Something in the water cooler?

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
88. So this internal poll that somebody leaked to the Post
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 05:56 PM
Feb 2016

why the post has me baffled, and this public Sienna Poll are that related, as in well, close? I usually know from these things that at times internal polls are way off (See romney 2012), and sometimes they are ahead of the curve. Like all polling, they have their issues.

It is s not my state, but at this point, given how close CA and NY at times track each other, that has my hair in even more fire.

Oh and this tells me there is one nasty civil war at the state party. INCOMING!!!!

 

tk2kewl

(18,133 posts)
57. let's go ahead and add in some more presidential elections
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:31 PM
Feb 2016

2000
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_New_York,_2000

1996
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_New_York,_1996

1992 - the last time LI didn't vote for the Dem
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_New_York,_1992

Seeing as you thought LI was a single county and then went on to assume that LI doesn't vote for Democratic presidents, who is the one that should be embarrassed?

I would suggest you use google in the future before making baseless claims, assumptions and accusations.

 

leftynyc

(26,060 posts)
62. You have no idea what you're talking about
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:35 PM
Feb 2016

The last time we ran a candidate who wanted to raise taxes, he lost 49 states - including NY. I'm in zero rush to see that happening again. I'm tired of this exercise - Bernie doesn't stand a chance at being the candidate.

 

tk2kewl

(18,133 posts)
64. we were discussing how LI votes, not Bernie Sanders...
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:38 PM
Feb 2016

being made a fool can make one pout and runaway

see ya

 

leftynyc

(26,060 posts)
66. Sweetie - you don't have the chops
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:45 PM
Feb 2016

to embarrass me....but if it makes you feel better (which those juvenile emoticons seem to be conveying), knock yourself out. LI will never go for trump no matter how much you and your pals want to scare people by saying it would. Isn't it time for another person or group to be thrown under the bus - better scoot along.

 

tk2kewl

(18,133 posts)
67. btw... how did you come up with your user name leftynyc?
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:48 PM
Feb 2016

i never met a "lefty" so terrifyingly worried about raising taxes on the rich, wall street or corporations

i bet you loved Bloomberg

 

leftynyc

(26,060 posts)
80. I've had this screen name
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 05:21 PM
Feb 2016

since I started signing onto boards - so over 15 years. If Bernie was just talking about raising taxes on the rich, you'd have a point but he's not - he's talking about raising EVERYONE'S taxes and I'm not good with that. Raise them on the 1%, corps and wall street to 90%, I couldn't care less but I'm already paying too much. Bloomberg? He was okay, I guess. I don't live in the city so I didn't vote for him. Last time I lived in the city, Dinkins was mayor.

 

tk2kewl

(18,133 posts)
73. oh, and btw... i was not trying to embarrass you...
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 05:01 PM
Feb 2016

i simply pointed out that maybe you should be embarrassed, but i wouldn't be surprised if you weren't embarrassed at all.

 

leftynyc

(26,060 posts)
81. No - I never let
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 05:22 PM
Feb 2016

anonymous people on the internet effect my ego. That would be stupid.

JCMach1

(29,202 posts)
2. The Post... really
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:07 PM
Feb 2016

EdwardBernays

(3,343 posts)
4. Shooting the messenger
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:08 PM
Feb 2016

That's all you got?

JCMach1

(29,202 posts)
9. I am expected to believe NY likes the Glorious Leader that much...?
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:11 PM
Feb 2016

Not bloody likely...

EdwardBernays

(3,343 posts)
10. Read the link
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:11 PM
Feb 2016

A publicly disclosed Siena College poll of Long Island voters last week found Trump narrowly beating Clinton among Long Island voters, 41 percent to 38 percent,

JCMach1

(29,202 posts)
14. That poll is different from the one being touted by the story... That main poll 'supposedly' also
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:18 PM
Feb 2016

Trump up by more than 37% against his Rubio and Kasich. Once again, I add.... really?

As for LI, Lazio beat Clinton on Long Island... people tend to forget that.

shenmue

(38,598 posts)
12. The Post is a piece of shit.
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:16 PM
Feb 2016
 

SoLeftIAmRight

(4,883 posts)
3. New York?
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:07 PM
Feb 2016

she would be toast

Agnosticsherbet

(11,619 posts)
5. New York Post - Confidential polling - This is a joke, right?
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:08 PM
Feb 2016

LOL

msongs

(73,753 posts)
6. "confidential polling data" looks like big media is in the tank for sanders nt
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:08 PM
Feb 2016

EdwardBernays

(3,343 posts)
8. Click the link
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:09 PM
Feb 2016

A publicly disclosed Siena College poll of Long Island voters last week found Trump narrowly beating Clinton among Long Island voters, 41 percent to 38 percent,

JCMach1

(29,202 posts)
19. the article conflates a real poll (Siena) with this 'Confidential Poll'...
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:22 PM
Feb 2016

even the Siena poll is probably within MOE, plus you have to look at the methodology...

If our Democratic nominee (whoever it is) loses NY, we are getting our ass kicked anyway. It's the equivalent of the Rep's losing TX. You cannot put together a path to victory without it.

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
42. The confidential poll is an internal poll
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:07 PM
Feb 2016

all campaign do them... and why this was leaked to the post has me partially bafled... but if it is reliable,NY is in play.

By the way, you might want to correct Nate Silver on them not existing

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/01/when-internal-polls-mislead-a-whole-campaign-may-be-to-blame/

These things are far from a secret.

JCMach1

(29,202 posts)
111. Remember Romney's?
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 07:18 PM
Feb 2016

I know he does...

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
112. Yup, some of them, like all pollsq
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 07:22 PM
Feb 2016

are extremely accurate, some of them are not.

The fact that somebody leaked this is what has my interest, not whether this internal is accurate or not. There is a civil war inside the democratic party, This is another expression of it. It is not as loud as the one in the R side of the house.

It does indeed feel like 1824... read about the almost collapse of both parties. The Dems, well their predecessors, survived, but barely. It was not pretty.

JCMach1

(29,202 posts)
114. Insurgency, not Civil War as the turmoil is largely outside of the party proper...
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 07:40 PM
Feb 2016

It's more like Reagan's peeps in 1976 taking over the party, but falling short of the nomination.

That insurgency is setting the stage for an all-out Progressive take-over of the party. For me, there would not even have been a question of being undecided (as I am still) if Sen. Warren had run.

For all of Sen. Clinton's limitations as a candidate, I also find much to question about Sen. Sanders as well. So, I still have about 10 days, or so to make-up my mind and fill-in my absentee ballot.

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
115. Well I am looking at all this
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 07:42 PM
Feb 2016

including the now possible five people on the presidential ballot and I am thinking all those rules are littering the floor right now.

In fact. I have been spending way too much time in the Presidential race at RSD, mostly because this is going to change the political landscape all the way to my city wall. So I will have to mull this over, for an hour and start working on an analysis piece.

mercuryblues

(16,413 posts)
70. The last available Sienna poll
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:55 PM
Feb 2016

lpbk2713

(43,273 posts)
79. Hey, don't go confusing the OP with facts and stuff.
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 05:15 PM
Feb 2016





LonePirate

(14,367 posts)
13. If Clinton wins the GE, I'm not sure who will be more upset: the Repubs or much of DU.
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:16 PM
Feb 2016

She seems to be hated equally by both.

 

EL34x4

(2,003 posts)
23. The Republican establishment will be relieved.
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:29 PM
Feb 2016

They loath Donald Trump even more than Hillary Clinton.

 

Liberal_Stalwart71

(20,450 posts)
101. Does that mean she's doing something right?
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 06:28 PM
Feb 2016

Andy823

(11,555 posts)
107. Well
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 06:56 PM
Feb 2016

I don't really think that all the Hillary haters here on DU are "really" Democrats. I am sure most of them are actually republicans.

 

leftynyc

(26,060 posts)
15. Confidential polling from the NY Post?
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:19 PM
Feb 2016

A murdock rag? How desperate can people get? First newsmax and now the NY post. Sickening.

EdwardBernays

(3,343 posts)
30. To much of a snob to click the link
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:51 PM
Feb 2016

Which explains how you missed this:

A publicly disclosed Siena College poll of Long Island voters last week found Trump narrowly beating Clinton among Long Island voters, 41 percent to 38 percent,


Do Murdoch own that as well?

You guys are gonna be in for a hell of a shock in November.

Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin

(135,713 posts)
32. Long Island is not representitive of the state of New York
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:54 PM
Feb 2016

You were called on that above but you continue to double down on that flaw.

EdwardBernays

(3,343 posts)
35. Riiiight
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:56 PM
Feb 2016

So no matter what you're gonna say it's BS.

Clinton goggles on usual.

 

leftynyc

(26,060 posts)
43. LOL - ONE county
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:08 PM
Feb 2016

in NY is supposed to represent the entire state - a county, by the way, that Hillary LOST to Lazio when she took the senate seat with over 60% of the vote? Just stop embarrassing yourself this way. It's hard to watch.

 

RoccoR5955

(12,471 posts)
46. She beat Lazy Lazio because he didn't do enough campaigning.
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:11 PM
Feb 2016

Had he campaigned more, it would have been closer.

 

leftynyc

(26,060 posts)
48. LOL - that's pretty funny
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:13 PM
Feb 2016

It wasn't a close election 55% vs 43% - that's not a problem with not campaigning enough. Just stop with the bullshit.

 

RoccoR5955

(12,471 posts)
51. That is becasue Lazio did not put his campaign
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:15 PM
Feb 2016

to the places where it mattered. NYC and LI.
He won upstate.

 

leftynyc

(26,060 posts)
53. So fucking what?
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:17 PM
Feb 2016

He was too stupid to campaign where there are more people than cows and that's supposed to mean Donnie can win NY? Where are you taking this ridiculous argument?

 

RoccoR5955

(12,471 posts)
61. People upstate do not like Clinton
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:34 PM
Feb 2016

People on LI and parts of NYC love tRump.
Just sayin' like Yogi Berra said: "It ain't over till it's over."

 

leftynyc

(26,060 posts)
63. She managed to win her senate
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:37 PM
Feb 2016

seat with 55% of the vote.

 

LanternWaste

(37,748 posts)
54. No more and no less than no matter what, you're gonna say it's valid.
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:18 PM
Feb 2016

No more and no less than no matter what, you're gonna say it's valid.

Sanders goggles on as usual.

Six of one, half a dozen of the other.





(insert distinction lacking relevant difference below to maintain pretense of objectivity...)

 

tk2kewl

(18,133 posts)
76. it is pretty representative actually
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 05:12 PM
Feb 2016

see my discussion about LI presidential voting record from 1992 through 2012 above beginning with
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=7648703

try to ignore the blather from leftynyc

mercuryblues

(16,413 posts)
82. sienna poll
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 05:22 PM
Feb 2016

has Clinton up by 25 in new York state. Considering the entire state votes for the president, not just LI, Clinton has a pretty good chance of winning NY.

BeyondGeography

(41,101 posts)
16. Another Eeyore post, this one c/o Murdoch
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:20 PM
Feb 2016

Oy.

Depaysement

(1,835 posts)
17. You mean my vote might actually count?
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:21 PM
Feb 2016

Not buying it.

 

EL34x4

(2,003 posts)
20. At issue isn't whether Hillary Clinton loses New York. She won't.
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:26 PM
Feb 2016

At issue is whether she will have to spend money in New York. This prospect is a little more troubling. Money spent in New York is money not spent in Florida or Ohio.

 

RoccoR5955

(12,471 posts)
47. Good. Then my vote in the general election will not matter.
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:12 PM
Feb 2016

And I can just vote for "none of the above" on that line.

Atman

(31,464 posts)
21. "Confindential polling" from the NY Post.
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:29 PM
Feb 2016

Wow. I'm skeered.

EdwardBernays

(3,343 posts)
25. Didn't click the link huh?
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:47 PM
Feb 2016

A publicly disclosed Siena College poll of Long Island voters last week found Trump narrowly beating Clinton among Long Island voters, 41 percent to 38 percent...

Atman

(31,464 posts)
37. And what percentage of LI is NY?
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:57 PM
Feb 2016

So, a very narrow percentage of LI voters favors Trump. New York is a very big state.

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
44. It is not from the post
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:10 PM
Feb 2016

it is internal democratic party polling, which somebody leaked to the post. Your mileage will vary as to who, or why?

 

1StrongBlackMan

(31,849 posts)
84. Could you post where you got THAT information? ...
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 05:37 PM
Feb 2016

Or, better, post the confidential polling that is being referred to?

Thanks.

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
85. carefully read the article
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 05:42 PM
Feb 2016

and then tell me... but here since I did read the article.

Confidential polling data shows Hillary Clinton could lose the presidential election in heavily Democratic New York to Donald Trump as the GOP front-runner’s support grows to the point of being “surprisingly strong,” The Post has learned.

The poll results, from Democratic and Republican legislative races, have surprised many leading Dems, virtually all of whom have endorsed Clinton, while confounding and energizing GOP leaders, many of whom until recently have been opposed to Trump.


It is in the first paragraph. Not my first rodeo, and I have seen campaigns at times leak these things to the press. or worst, party operatives before.

This is hardly unprecedented. It just points to a nasty internal civil war at least within the state party. That is all. Why the Post... has me baffled, except for one explanation... whoever leaked it, wants to get pants on fire in state party, and they could not get another source, or this is a strategic leak.

And by the way, Mr. Trump is already using it, and if this internal poll is correct... CA might be in play too. That is one hell of an expansion of the map for Trump. The latter is pure speculation on my part. but at this point, this race, nothing surprises me anymore. This race is so out of the norm all previous rules do not apply anymore.
 

1StrongBlackMan

(31,849 posts)
87. IOWs, you have nothing to indicate that there is, in fact, ...
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 05:54 PM
Feb 2016

such confidential polling, Democratic or otherwise, beyond your rodeo experience.

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
90. yup, you go tell Nate Silver
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 06:01 PM
Feb 2016

that there is no internal polling m'kay. He even had a long piece about when internals are wrong

Here

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/01/when-internal-polls-mislead-a-whole-campaign-may-be-to-blame/

This is hardly a secret among poltical media, or for people who truly pay attention. I suppose you really do not pay that close attention, That write up, somebody gave them access to that data.

Again, not my first rodeo and they exist.

And here, from this year, Cruz must have hired the same outfit that did them for Romney

http://therightscoop.com/bush-internal-polling-shows-cruz-surge-in-south-carolina/

Yeah, right wing source

Oooh more mention of internals, as they are commonly known as well, now for the dems

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/blog/bal-internal-poll-shows-brown-with-large-lead-20150706-story.html

and here from Huffpost, dated though

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/20/colorado-senate-polls_n_6014032.html

There are a buttload of articles on this on the web... why it always baffles me that people do not understand this is happening.

Next time you want to tell me something does not exist, at least try to do your homework. I mean it.

 

1StrongBlackMan

(31,849 posts)
94. I didn't say anything about there not being such a thing as internals ...
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 06:11 PM
Feb 2016

I'm asking about the basis of your claim that there are internals (confidential internals) that say what the Post claims.

Speculation is fine. Basing one'side speculation on sketchy sources is fine, too ... but less so.

I mean it.

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
96. The words used in the write up are quite clear,
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 06:21 PM
Feb 2016

somebody leaked an internal poll, You can either believe that happened, or most likely not... goes against the narrative, I know.

If true... there is that pesky qualifier and from now to November is many eternities in politics,, NY might be in play, and if it is in play and she loses. have fun. Personally I will not be surprised. Trump has ben doing things that have broken so many rules the ground is littered with their remains.

As to sketchy sources, I have learned over the years that from time to time even the worst rw or lw media, gets it right. So I do read them, and do not consider them not possible just becuase it is a murdoch paper. By the way, speaking of motivations, Mr. Murdoch might hate HRC... but boy he fears trump.

And here you go, from a source that perhaps you might actually believe

http://www.salon.com/2015/07/22/rupert_murdochs_donald_trump_nightmare_he_cant_control_the_monster_fox_news_created/

I will repeat this, the rules this election are nowhere close to normal.

 

1StrongBlackMan

(31,849 posts)
105. Ms. Neutral Arbiter of Fact ...
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 06:42 PM
Feb 2016

has it escaped you that you are, also, promoting a "narrative" ... basing it on a "leak" of "confidential" polling, that you label from a "Democratic" source, from laughably sketchy media source?

If true... there is that pesky qualifier and from now to November is many eternities in politics,, NY might be in play, and if it is in play and she loses. have fun. Personally I will not be surprised. Trump has ben doing things that have broken so many rules the ground is littered with their remains.


If ...

As to sketchy sources, I have learned over the years that from time to time even the worst rw or lw media, gets it right. So I do read them, and do not consider them not possible just becuase it is a murdoch paper. By the way, speaking of motivations, Mr. Murdoch might hate HRC... but boy he fears trump.


And there appears to be a positive correlation between your willingness to accept the veracity of the sketchy source and your personal opinion on the topic, i.e., if it is critical of certain Democrats or the Democratic Party, you assign high truth value; whereas, is it is supportive of certain other Democrats or the Democratic Party, you don't even mention it.
 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
106. Believe it or not, this is part of the soup
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 06:53 PM
Feb 2016

hey... it is not my state, so for the most part this goes into the filing cabinet. and will watch my state closely. IF this is even close to the truth... guess what given how CA and NY at times track each other... for the first time in many years my state might be in play too. And don't tell me that is impossible, We are after all the home of Nixon (when the state was reliable red), Reagan (same story) and we voted over the last decade for the Guvernator, who wanted to run a "full action state." He sort of did, to the ground.

Your come backs are funny and pure deflection. And you do not want any discussion or address what is presented to you, Of course that is the kind way to put. They are more like soft personal attacks, and they are funny as hell. Thanks for the laugh. That headache is killing me so the distraction is needed.


I understand this narrative you do not like,. Hey I get it, I don't like the idea either, but I have said it in the past, that the conditions are such that we are seeing a base revolt. And now, it is not just me. More and more media are now speaking the words I have spoken about for YEARS, CNN a few minutes ago, was speaking of the collapse of the GOP... as a possibly. So given I saw the early trends of that about 10 years ago and started going there that long ago here, I think I have somewhat of a finger on the pulse. And yes, more than a few of your friends in the centrist wing of the party made fun of it. Not so much fun anymore.

By the way Mr. Blitzer, welcome to the club. That was one of those moments I went.... DAMN, now you guys are going there, and it might be TOO LATE.

 

1StrongBlackMan

(31,849 posts)
108. What is it with the personal attack allegation ...
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 07:00 PM
Feb 2016

I guess disagreeing with you and pointing out where you go off the rails is a personal attack.

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
109. Nope, not allegation
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 07:01 PM
Feb 2016

it is what it is

RichGirl

(4,119 posts)
22. I don't think he'll be the nominee.
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:29 PM
Feb 2016

The media was giving him too much airtime...but I think they are seeing the light. The David Duke thing must have been a thump on their collective heads. Even Scarborough calling for him to denounce Duke. If he does he'll lose supporters. Between a rock and a hard place for sure.

If he does get the nom, he'll need dem votes. By the time November comes...he'll probably have said so many stupid things that we can forgo an election all together and each state will save a ton of money.

EdwardBernays

(3,343 posts)
29. He's denounced him
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:49 PM
Feb 2016

Repeatedly - for years.

And to his supporters this is just more media BS.

Watch a Trump rally sometime and see if you think his supporters care about the media.

sufrommich

(22,871 posts)
24. The Sanders supporters desperation sets in.nt
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:31 PM
Feb 2016

EdwardBernays

(3,343 posts)
27. Lol
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:48 PM
Feb 2016

The only thing we're desperate for is Clinton supporters to wake up before they drive the country into a ditch. Especially for someone so dishonest and corrupt.

Initech

(108,783 posts)
26. New York Post - owned by Rupert Murdoch. What do you expect?
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:47 PM
Feb 2016

EdwardBernays

(3,343 posts)
28. Click the link maybe?
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:48 PM
Feb 2016

A publicly disclosed Siena College poll of Long Island voters last week found Trump narrowly beating Clinton among Long Island voters, 41 percent to 38 percent...

mercuryblues

(16,413 posts)
91. are you
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 06:04 PM
Feb 2016

why won't you click this link?
A sienna Poll showing Clinton over trump by 25%.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ny/new_york_trump_vs_clinton-5792.html

Is it because it doesn't fit your narrative?

Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin

(135,713 posts)
31. Stop it already
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:51 PM
Feb 2016

You do Bernie Sanders no service quoting right wing sources.

EdwardBernays

(3,343 posts)
34. Like this?
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:55 PM
Feb 2016

A publicly disclosed Siena College poll of Long Island voters last week found Trump narrowly beating Clinton among Long Island voters, 41 percent to 38 percent...

Is that right-wing?

Because it's in that article.

People are too hang up on sources. It makes people shallow if they only read things they agree with.

spanone

(141,609 posts)
33. not very 'confidential' if it's in the nypost
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:55 PM
Feb 2016

EdwardBernays

(3,343 posts)
36. Check the NYTs
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:56 PM
Feb 2016

It's full of confidential stuff.

spanone

(141,609 posts)
38. link to this story in the times?
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 03:57 PM
Feb 2016
 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
50. Your mileage will vary why this was leaked to the NY Post
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:14 PM
Feb 2016

but it was... somebody in the D side of the house did. And this only tells me the internal war is heating up

 

Kelvin Mace

(17,469 posts)
40. Right, the NY Post is not fit for cat litter.
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:05 PM
Feb 2016
 

RoccoR5955

(12,471 posts)
49. They do use it for
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:13 PM
Feb 2016

bird cage liner, and fish wrap.

 

Kelvin Mace

(17,469 posts)
89. Will no one think of the birds and the dead fish?
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 05:57 PM
Feb 2016

Nightjock

(1,408 posts)
41. Doubt it. I live on Long Island
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:07 PM
Feb 2016

The Lazio-Clinton race was a long time ago. As for now, all I see are Bernie signs and bumper stickers here.

elleng

(141,926 posts)
52. 'If we are going to nominate someone who 50% of our people can't stand,
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:16 PM
Feb 2016

we are going to lose.'

Marco Rubio

Goes for BOTH parties.

 

Macattack1

(34 posts)
58. can't believe the level of denial around here
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:32 PM
Feb 2016

I'm in Mass...trump is right about at 50%..like Politico,(hardly the Post I would say), says...if he wins with that much support, it could mean he wins the GE...basically he is getting all the independents.. anyone who thinks the GE won't be extremely close, is in denial, big-time.

DeadLetterOffice

(1,352 posts)
60. As an upstate NY resident --
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:34 PM
Feb 2016

-- and Sanders supporter -- let me just say:
Yeah, right.

NY state going GOP in a presidential race? Let alone for Trump? Someone at the Post is smoking crack.

Rural upstate might well vote for the Trump (shudder), but Democrats downstate reliably help to carry the state blue in Presidential races. Won't matter if it's Bernie or HRC on the ticket, NY as a whole will go to the Democrat.

 

tk2kewl

(18,133 posts)
78. it was a Sienna College poll of LI voters
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 05:13 PM
Feb 2016

if LI goes GOP, that's a pretty big deal since they have not since 1992

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=7648703

 

RoccoR5955

(12,471 posts)
92. Uh huh...
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 06:10 PM
Feb 2016

That's how Pataki became governor. Nope, NY can go RepubliCLOWN in less than a heartbeat.

DeadLetterOffice

(1,352 posts)
95. The state hasn't gone red in a presidential election since Reagan
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 06:16 PM
Feb 2016
 

RoccoR5955

(12,471 posts)
97. I guess you forget Pataki.
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 06:22 PM
Feb 2016

They said he couldn't win and he won THREE FUCKING TIMES!!!!!

DeadLetterOffice

(1,352 posts)
99. We voted for Pataki for president? When did that happen???
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 06:24 PM
Feb 2016

Read slower - I am specifically stating *presidential* elections. Repeatedly.
I will never successfully forget Pataki, no worries (shudder).

 

Purveyor

(29,876 posts)
65. You can scratch off Michigan and Ohio too
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:39 PM
Feb 2016

EarlG

(23,631 posts)
68. Really?
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:51 PM
Feb 2016

The Siena poll cited by the Post in this article shows Hillary up over Trump in Nassau, but down in Suffolk. Given that Siena's most recent statewide poll has Bernie and Hillary beating any of the Republican candidates by double digits (no worse than 17 points), it looks like the Post is cherry picking data from a single county in a pretty lame effort to spin the poll into a statewide loss.

Not that the New York Post would ever do anything like that of course.

 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
120. EarlG, note this is his followup to pushing folks to declare "Bernie or Bust", i.e. don't support
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 10:10 PM
Feb 2016

Clinton if she is the nominee. Check his prior OPs.

 

Liberal_Stalwart71

(20,450 posts)
69. Sanders fanatics are getting so sad with their desperation that they're coming across
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:51 PM
Feb 2016

as rooting for Trump.

When they start quoting Newsmax and New York Post and suggesting that Dick Morris is some credible guy, we know that we're in a sad state of affairs.

 

RoccoR5955

(12,471 posts)
93. No but we are being realists
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 06:11 PM
Feb 2016

because we know that tRump will be president if Clinton is nominated.

 

Liberal_Stalwart71

(20,450 posts)
98. We don't know that really. As we saw today, the polls shifted and polls shift on a daily basis.
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 06:23 PM
Feb 2016

One of things I enjoy about being a political scientist is analyzing the ebb and flows of everyday politics and grappling with the dynamics of public opinion and sentiment.

It's going to be quite interesting going forward.

The GOP is grappling with Trump and there are far many who are revolting. They're talking about running a third party candidate if Trump is the nominee. This is from a growing number of Republican representatives and senators.

 

RoccoR5955

(12,471 posts)
100. Ok if there is a growing number
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 06:26 PM
Feb 2016

then please name three, so I can at least check them out for myself.
Thanks.

 

Liberal_Stalwart71

(20,450 posts)
102. Growing numbers: Senater Sasse and Rep. Mo Brooks. Now Romney's campaign manager is on
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 06:30 PM
Feb 2016

suggesting that they're considering a Third Party.

It's on MSNBC right now.

 

RoccoR5955

(12,471 posts)
103. Interesting...
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 06:33 PM
Feb 2016

I wonder if they will try to draft Bloomberg.
Nah, he's a Jew, and those bastards hate Jews.

 

Liberal_Stalwart71

(20,450 posts)
110. The post that Big Dog just posted is another example...
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 07:06 PM
Feb 2016

Here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141363736

Looks to me that the Republican party is fractured.

 

RoccoR5955

(12,471 posts)
116. Yeah
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 07:51 PM
Feb 2016

McConnell said last week that if tRump was the nominee that he would back Hillary. That tells me that she is the corporate candidate for the Democratic Party. We do not need corporatists, we need PEOPLE.

 

Liberal_Stalwart71

(20,450 posts)
118. Christie Todd Whitman and Senator Ron Johnson (WI) both said that they won't support Trump.
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 09:55 PM
Feb 2016

CTW says she'll vote for Hillary. Meg Whitman went after Chris Christie, vowing too, that she'd vote for HRC if Trump is the nominee.

I know quite a few Republicans who have also pledged to throw their support for HRC. (I work in D.C. and run in political circles, so I come across a lot of people in politics.)

lpbk2713

(43,273 posts)
104. That's a distinct possibility.
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 06:35 PM
Feb 2016



They are testing the waters with public statements like that.

And it is probably Chump's best hope.

 

nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
113. Yuo mean the story that Politico broke on Saturdy
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 07:26 PM
Feb 2016

I posted on Sunday, both here and at RSD is now at MSNBC (and CNN)... cool

Some of us have been predicting that for ten years or so. Some of us can read trends, the only thing that will save the dems from their fate, at this point is a third, fourth or fight party run. (Rs, Bloomberg, Ventura).

Otherwise, Mr. Trump will be President Elect.

My question is whether the party will learn the lesson. Most likely not, and the discontent driving this is not going away.

 

davidn3600

(6,342 posts)
71. New York, no. But maybe PA
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:55 PM
Feb 2016

Trump isn't a typical GOP candidate. So I'm not sure the traditional statistical models are really valid.

Andy823

(11,555 posts)
72. This kind of crap belongs on GD-P
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 04:59 PM
Feb 2016

Why can't you and your band of trash and bashers stay over there and leave this board alone?

 

B Calm

(28,762 posts)
74. Wrong forum! Didn't you get that message before posting?
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 05:01 PM
Feb 2016

Cavallo

(348 posts)
75. I am afraid of a trump win.
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 05:05 PM
Feb 2016
 

hifiguy

(33,688 posts)
77. I cannot say I am surprised.
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 05:13 PM
Feb 2016

She's the walking, talking embodiment of the self-serving, self-dealing, utterly corrupt political insider class of which people are sick to death. He, Trump, while an asshole of Olympian proportions, does not fit that description in the public mind. 'tis what it is.

 

RBInMaine

(13,570 posts)
86. The NY Post? Seriously? It's one click away from the National Enquirer.
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 05:50 PM
Feb 2016

VOX

(22,976 posts)
117. Jesus H. Christ, please lock this mess! n/t
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 07:55 PM
Feb 2016
 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
119. Nonsense from the Post is your followup to pushing Bernie or Bust?
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 09:58 PM
Feb 2016
 

LannyDeVaney

(1,033 posts)
121. Ha-ha. OK. You go with that.
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 10:12 PM
Feb 2016

I'll go with the future President of the United States.

book_worm

(15,951 posts)
122. Should this really be in this forum?
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 10:32 PM
Feb 2016

It's just part of the primary wars.

cyberswede

(26,117 posts)
123. Locking...
Mon Feb 29, 2016, 11:14 PM
Feb 2016

So sorry, but the Hosts feel that this doesn't meet the SoP for GD, since it is largely about Clinton's strength as a primary candidate.

Please consider reposting in GDP. Thanks.

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