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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsPolls: Clinton could lose NY to Trump
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Confidential polling data shows Hillary Clinton could lose the presidential election in heavily Democratic New York to Donald Trump as the GOP front-runners support grows to the point of being surprisingly strong, The Post has learned.
The poll results, from Democratic and Republican legislative races, have surprised many leading Dems, virtually all of whom have endorsed Clinton, while confounding and energizing GOP leaders, many of whom until recently have been opposed to Trump.
...
In the suburbs and upstate, Trump has a net positive while Hillary is a net negative, one longtime Republican operative contended. Shes more of a liability than many Democrats realized.
Some of the polls also found a greater degree of intensity among Trumps potential voters than among Clintons, a finding that mirrors the stronger GOP turnouts that have been registered in the presidential primaries.
http://nypost.com/2016/02/28/hillary-could-lose-to-trump-in-democratic-new-york/
frazzled
(18,402 posts)NY Post. "Confidential polling data." Need we say more?
EdwardBernays
(3,343 posts)A publicly disclosed Siena College poll of Long Island voters last week found Trump narrowly beating Clinton among Long Island voters, 41 percent to 38 percent...
frazzled
(18,402 posts)She won her last senate election in the state 67% to 31%.
And that's a premature poll (we've been told to ignore all polls before the two party nominees are confirmed), which totals only 79% of voters, in one area.
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)And that's supposed to represent ALL NEW YORKERS? The desperation is getting rancid.
tk2kewl
(18,133 posts)Nassau pop 1,349,233
Suffolk pop 1,499,273
NYS pop 19,607,100
LI = ~15% of the state pop
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)usually go for Democrats so now I know you don't know shit about Long Island. Where the fuck do you think Pete King represents? Just stop digging, you're only embarrassing yourself.
tk2kewl
(18,133 posts)Congress is a different story. King is my Rep. I live in Nassua Co. and do in fact know what I am talking about.
2012
http://www.politico.com/2012-election/results/president/new-york/
2008
http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/map.html
2004
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_New_York,_2004
should i keep going?
btw.. nice mouth
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)you were such a delicate flower. If you think donnie can win ny based on a poll of Long Islanders, you're version of reality is that of those who love those special mushrooms. Not gonna happen. Want to lose Long Island? Run a candidate who wants to raise taxes.
tk2kewl
(18,133 posts)you on the other hand have no idea what your talking about and are quite unpleasant
CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)The hive seems unusually angry, paranoid and feral-like lately.
Something in the water cooler?
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)why the post has me baffled, and this public Sienna Poll are that related, as in well, close? I usually know from these things that at times internal polls are way off (See romney 2012), and sometimes they are ahead of the curve. Like all polling, they have their issues.
It is s not my state, but at this point, given how close CA and NY at times track each other, that has my hair in even more fire.
Oh and this tells me there is one nasty civil war at the state party. INCOMING!!!!
tk2kewl
(18,133 posts)2000
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_New_York,_2000
1996
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_New_York,_1996
1992 - the last time LI didn't vote for the Dem
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_New_York,_1992
Seeing as you thought LI was a single county and then went on to assume that LI doesn't vote for Democratic presidents, who is the one that should be embarrassed?
I would suggest you use google in the future before making baseless claims, assumptions and accusations.
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)The last time we ran a candidate who wanted to raise taxes, he lost 49 states - including NY. I'm in zero rush to see that happening again. I'm tired of this exercise - Bernie doesn't stand a chance at being the candidate.
tk2kewl
(18,133 posts)being made a fool can make one pout and runaway
see ya
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)to embarrass me....but if it makes you feel better (which those juvenile emoticons seem to be conveying), knock yourself out. LI will never go for trump no matter how much you and your pals want to scare people by saying it would. Isn't it time for another person or group to be thrown under the bus - better scoot along.
tk2kewl
(18,133 posts)i never met a "lefty" so terrifyingly worried about raising taxes on the rich, wall street or corporations
i bet you loved Bloomberg
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)since I started signing onto boards - so over 15 years. If Bernie was just talking about raising taxes on the rich, you'd have a point but he's not - he's talking about raising EVERYONE'S taxes and I'm not good with that. Raise them on the 1%, corps and wall street to 90%, I couldn't care less but I'm already paying too much. Bloomberg? He was okay, I guess. I don't live in the city so I didn't vote for him. Last time I lived in the city, Dinkins was mayor.
tk2kewl
(18,133 posts)i simply pointed out that maybe you should be embarrassed, but i wouldn't be surprised if you weren't embarrassed at all.
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)anonymous people on the internet effect my ego. That would be stupid.
EdwardBernays
(3,343 posts)That's all you got?
JCMach1
(29,202 posts)Not bloody likely...
EdwardBernays
(3,343 posts)A publicly disclosed Siena College poll of Long Island voters last week found Trump narrowly beating Clinton among Long Island voters, 41 percent to 38 percent,
JCMach1
(29,202 posts)Trump up by more than 37% against his Rubio and Kasich. Once again, I add.... really?
As for LI, Lazio beat Clinton on Long Island... people tend to forget that.
shenmue
(38,598 posts)SoLeftIAmRight
(4,883 posts)she would be toast
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)LOL
msongs
(73,753 posts)EdwardBernays
(3,343 posts)A publicly disclosed Siena College poll of Long Island voters last week found Trump narrowly beating Clinton among Long Island voters, 41 percent to 38 percent,
JCMach1
(29,202 posts)even the Siena poll is probably within MOE, plus you have to look at the methodology...
If our Democratic nominee (whoever it is) loses NY, we are getting our ass kicked anyway. It's the equivalent of the Rep's losing TX. You cannot put together a path to victory without it.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)all campaign do them... and why this was leaked to the post has me partially bafled... but if it is reliable,NY is in play.
By the way, you might want to correct Nate Silver on them not existing
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/01/when-internal-polls-mislead-a-whole-campaign-may-be-to-blame/
These things are far from a secret.
JCMach1
(29,202 posts)I know he does...
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)are extremely accurate, some of them are not.
The fact that somebody leaked this is what has my interest, not whether this internal is accurate or not. There is a civil war inside the democratic party, This is another expression of it. It is not as loud as the one in the R side of the house.
It does indeed feel like 1824... read about the almost collapse of both parties. The Dems, well their predecessors, survived, but barely. It was not pretty.
JCMach1
(29,202 posts)It's more like Reagan's peeps in 1976 taking over the party, but falling short of the nomination.
That insurgency is setting the stage for an all-out Progressive take-over of the party. For me, there would not even have been a question of being undecided (as I am still) if Sen. Warren had run.
For all of Sen. Clinton's limitations as a candidate, I also find much to question about Sen. Sanders as well. So, I still have about 10 days, or so to make-up my mind and fill-in my absentee ballot.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)including the now possible five people on the presidential ballot and I am thinking all those rules are littering the floor right now.
In fact. I have been spending way too much time in the Presidential race at RSD, mostly because this is going to change the political landscape all the way to my city wall. So I will have to mull this over, for an hour and start working on an analysis piece.
mercuryblues
(16,413 posts)also has Clinton up by 25 for New York State
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ny/new_york_trump_vs_clinton-5792.html
lpbk2713
(43,273 posts)LonePirate
(14,367 posts)She seems to be hated equally by both.
EL34x4
(2,003 posts)They loath Donald Trump even more than Hillary Clinton.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)Andy823
(11,555 posts)I don't really think that all the Hillary haters here on DU are "really" Democrats. I am sure most of them are actually republicans.
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)A murdock rag? How desperate can people get? First newsmax and now the NY post. Sickening.
EdwardBernays
(3,343 posts)Which explains how you missed this:
A publicly disclosed Siena College poll of Long Island voters last week found Trump narrowly beating Clinton among Long Island voters, 41 percent to 38 percent,
Do Murdoch own that as well?
You guys are gonna be in for a hell of a shock in November.
Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin
(135,713 posts)You were called on that above but you continue to double down on that flaw.
EdwardBernays
(3,343 posts)So no matter what you're gonna say it's BS.
Clinton goggles on usual.
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)in NY is supposed to represent the entire state - a county, by the way, that Hillary LOST to Lazio when she took the senate seat with over 60% of the vote? Just stop embarrassing yourself this way. It's hard to watch.
RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)Had he campaigned more, it would have been closer.
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)It wasn't a close election 55% vs 43% - that's not a problem with not campaigning enough. Just stop with the bullshit.
RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)to the places where it mattered. NYC and LI.
He won upstate.
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)He was too stupid to campaign where there are more people than cows and that's supposed to mean Donnie can win NY? Where are you taking this ridiculous argument?
RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)People on LI and parts of NYC love tRump.
Just sayin' like Yogi Berra said: "It ain't over till it's over."
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)seat with 55% of the vote.
LanternWaste
(37,748 posts)No more and no less than no matter what, you're gonna say it's valid.
Sanders goggles on as usual.
Six of one, half a dozen of the other.
(insert distinction lacking relevant difference below to maintain pretense of objectivity...)
tk2kewl
(18,133 posts)see my discussion about LI presidential voting record from 1992 through 2012 above beginning with
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=7648703
try to ignore the blather from leftynyc
mercuryblues
(16,413 posts)has Clinton up by 25 in new York state. Considering the entire state votes for the president, not just LI, Clinton has a pretty good chance of winning NY.
BeyondGeography
(41,101 posts)Oy.
Depaysement
(1,835 posts)Not buying it.
EL34x4
(2,003 posts)At issue is whether she will have to spend money in New York. This prospect is a little more troubling. Money spent in New York is money not spent in Florida or Ohio.
RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)And I can just vote for "none of the above" on that line.
Atman
(31,464 posts)Wow. I'm skeered.
EdwardBernays
(3,343 posts)A publicly disclosed Siena College poll of Long Island voters last week found Trump narrowly beating Clinton among Long Island voters, 41 percent to 38 percent...
Atman
(31,464 posts)So, a very narrow percentage of LI voters favors Trump. New York is a very big state.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)it is internal democratic party polling, which somebody leaked to the post. Your mileage will vary as to who, or why?
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)Or, better, post the confidential polling that is being referred to?
Thanks.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)and then tell me... but here since I did read the article.
The poll results, from Democratic and Republican legislative races, have surprised many leading Dems, virtually all of whom have endorsed Clinton, while confounding and energizing GOP leaders, many of whom until recently have been opposed to Trump.
It is in the first paragraph. Not my first rodeo, and I have seen campaigns at times leak these things to the press. or worst, party operatives before.
This is hardly unprecedented. It just points to a nasty internal civil war at least within the state party. That is all. Why the Post... has me baffled, except for one explanation... whoever leaked it, wants to get pants on fire in state party, and they could not get another source, or this is a strategic leak.
And by the way, Mr. Trump is already using it, and if this internal poll is correct... CA might be in play too. That is one hell of an expansion of the map for Trump. The latter is pure speculation on my part. but at this point, this race, nothing surprises me anymore. This race is so out of the norm all previous rules do not apply anymore.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)such confidential polling, Democratic or otherwise, beyond your rodeo experience.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)that there is no internal polling m'kay. He even had a long piece about when internals are wrong
Here
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/01/when-internal-polls-mislead-a-whole-campaign-may-be-to-blame/
This is hardly a secret among poltical media, or for people who truly pay attention. I suppose you really do not pay that close attention, That write up, somebody gave them access to that data.
Again, not my first rodeo and they exist.
And here, from this year, Cruz must have hired the same outfit that did them for Romney
http://therightscoop.com/bush-internal-polling-shows-cruz-surge-in-south-carolina/
Yeah, right wing source
Oooh more mention of internals, as they are commonly known as well, now for the dems
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/blog/bal-internal-poll-shows-brown-with-large-lead-20150706-story.html
and here from Huffpost, dated though
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/20/colorado-senate-polls_n_6014032.html
There are a buttload of articles on this on the web... why it always baffles me that people do not understand this is happening.
Next time you want to tell me something does not exist, at least try to do your homework. I mean it.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)I'm asking about the basis of your claim that there are internals (confidential internals) that say what the Post claims.
Speculation is fine. Basing one'side speculation on sketchy sources is fine, too ... but less so.
I mean it.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)somebody leaked an internal poll, You can either believe that happened, or most likely not... goes against the narrative, I know.
If true... there is that pesky qualifier and from now to November is many eternities in politics,, NY might be in play, and if it is in play and she loses. have fun. Personally I will not be surprised. Trump has ben doing things that have broken so many rules the ground is littered with their remains.
As to sketchy sources, I have learned over the years that from time to time even the worst rw or lw media, gets it right. So I do read them, and do not consider them not possible just becuase it is a murdoch paper. By the way, speaking of motivations, Mr. Murdoch might hate HRC... but boy he fears trump.
And here you go, from a source that perhaps you might actually believe
http://www.salon.com/2015/07/22/rupert_murdochs_donald_trump_nightmare_he_cant_control_the_monster_fox_news_created/
I will repeat this, the rules this election are nowhere close to normal.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)has it escaped you that you are, also, promoting a "narrative" ... basing it on a "leak" of "confidential" polling, that you label from a "Democratic" source, from laughably sketchy media source?
If ...
And there appears to be a positive correlation between your willingness to accept the veracity of the sketchy source and your personal opinion on the topic, i.e., if it is critical of certain Democrats or the Democratic Party, you assign high truth value; whereas, is it is supportive of certain other Democrats or the Democratic Party, you don't even mention it.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)hey... it is not my state, so for the most part this goes into the filing cabinet. and will watch my state closely. IF this is even close to the truth... guess what given how CA and NY at times track each other... for the first time in many years my state might be in play too. And don't tell me that is impossible, We are after all the home of Nixon (when the state was reliable red), Reagan (same story) and we voted over the last decade for the Guvernator, who wanted to run a "full action state." He sort of did, to the ground.
Your come backs are funny and pure deflection. And you do not want any discussion or address what is presented to you, Of course that is the kind way to put. They are more like soft personal attacks, and they are funny as hell. Thanks for the laugh. That headache is killing me so the distraction is needed.
I understand this narrative you do not like,. Hey I get it, I don't like the idea either, but I have said it in the past, that the conditions are such that we are seeing a base revolt. And now, it is not just me. More and more media are now speaking the words I have spoken about for YEARS, CNN a few minutes ago, was speaking of the collapse of the GOP... as a possibly. So given I saw the early trends of that about 10 years ago and started going there that long ago here, I think I have somewhat of a finger on the pulse. And yes, more than a few of your friends in the centrist wing of the party made fun of it. Not so much fun anymore.
By the way Mr. Blitzer, welcome to the club. That was one of those moments I went.... DAMN, now you guys are going there, and it might be TOO LATE.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)I guess disagreeing with you and pointing out where you go off the rails is a personal attack.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)it is what it is
RichGirl
(4,119 posts)The media was giving him too much airtime...but I think they are seeing the light. The David Duke thing must have been a thump on their collective heads. Even Scarborough calling for him to denounce Duke. If he does he'll lose supporters. Between a rock and a hard place for sure.
If he does get the nom, he'll need dem votes. By the time November comes...he'll probably have said so many stupid things that we can forgo an election all together and each state will save a ton of money.
EdwardBernays
(3,343 posts)Repeatedly - for years.
And to his supporters this is just more media BS.
Watch a Trump rally sometime and see if you think his supporters care about the media.
sufrommich
(22,871 posts)EdwardBernays
(3,343 posts)The only thing we're desperate for is Clinton supporters to wake up before they drive the country into a ditch. Especially for someone so dishonest and corrupt.
Initech
(108,783 posts)EdwardBernays
(3,343 posts)A publicly disclosed Siena College poll of Long Island voters last week found Trump narrowly beating Clinton among Long Island voters, 41 percent to 38 percent...
mercuryblues
(16,413 posts)why won't you click this link?
A sienna Poll showing Clinton over trump by 25%.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ny/new_york_trump_vs_clinton-5792.html
Is it because it doesn't fit your narrative?
Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin
(135,713 posts)You do Bernie Sanders no service quoting right wing sources.
EdwardBernays
(3,343 posts)A publicly disclosed Siena College poll of Long Island voters last week found Trump narrowly beating Clinton among Long Island voters, 41 percent to 38 percent...
Is that right-wing?
Because it's in that article.
People are too hang up on sources. It makes people shallow if they only read things they agree with.
spanone
(141,609 posts)EdwardBernays
(3,343 posts)It's full of confidential stuff.
spanone
(141,609 posts)nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)but it was... somebody in the D side of the house did. And this only tells me the internal war is heating up
Kelvin Mace
(17,469 posts)RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)bird cage liner, and fish wrap.
Kelvin Mace
(17,469 posts)Nightjock
(1,408 posts)The Lazio-Clinton race was a long time ago. As for now, all I see are Bernie signs and bumper stickers here.
elleng
(141,926 posts)we are going to lose.'
Marco Rubio
Goes for BOTH parties.
Macattack1
(34 posts)I'm in Mass...trump is right about at 50%..like Politico,(hardly the Post I would say), says...if he wins with that much support, it could mean he wins the GE...basically he is getting all the independents.. anyone who thinks the GE won't be extremely close, is in denial, big-time.
DeadLetterOffice
(1,352 posts)-- and Sanders supporter -- let me just say:
Yeah, right.
NY state going GOP in a presidential race? Let alone for Trump? Someone at the Post is smoking crack.
Rural upstate might well vote for the Trump (shudder), but Democrats downstate reliably help to carry the state blue in Presidential races. Won't matter if it's Bernie or HRC on the ticket, NY as a whole will go to the Democrat.
tk2kewl
(18,133 posts)if LI goes GOP, that's a pretty big deal since they have not since 1992
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=7648703
RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)That's how Pataki became governor. Nope, NY can go RepubliCLOWN in less than a heartbeat.
DeadLetterOffice
(1,352 posts)RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)They said he couldn't win and he won THREE FUCKING TIMES!!!!!
DeadLetterOffice
(1,352 posts)Read slower - I am specifically stating *presidential* elections. Repeatedly.
I will never successfully forget Pataki, no worries (shudder).
Purveyor
(29,876 posts)EarlG
(23,631 posts)The Siena poll cited by the Post in this article shows Hillary up over Trump in Nassau, but down in Suffolk. Given that Siena's most recent statewide poll has Bernie and Hillary beating any of the Republican candidates by double digits (no worse than 17 points), it looks like the Post is cherry picking data from a single county in a pretty lame effort to spin the poll into a statewide loss.
Not that the New York Post would ever do anything like that of course.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)Clinton if she is the nominee. Check his prior OPs.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)as rooting for Trump.
When they start quoting Newsmax and New York Post and suggesting that Dick Morris is some credible guy, we know that we're in a sad state of affairs.
RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)because we know that tRump will be president if Clinton is nominated.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)One of things I enjoy about being a political scientist is analyzing the ebb and flows of everyday politics and grappling with the dynamics of public opinion and sentiment.
It's going to be quite interesting going forward.
The GOP is grappling with Trump and there are far many who are revolting. They're talking about running a third party candidate if Trump is the nominee. This is from a growing number of Republican representatives and senators.
RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)then please name three, so I can at least check them out for myself.
Thanks.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)suggesting that they're considering a Third Party.
It's on MSNBC right now.
RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)I wonder if they will try to draft Bloomberg.
Nah, he's a Jew, and those bastards hate Jews.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)Here:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141363736
Looks to me that the Republican party is fractured.
RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)McConnell said last week that if tRump was the nominee that he would back Hillary. That tells me that she is the corporate candidate for the Democratic Party. We do not need corporatists, we need PEOPLE.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)CTW says she'll vote for Hillary. Meg Whitman went after Chris Christie, vowing too, that she'd vote for HRC if Trump is the nominee.
I know quite a few Republicans who have also pledged to throw their support for HRC. (I work in D.C. and run in political circles, so I come across a lot of people in politics.)
lpbk2713
(43,273 posts)They are testing the waters with public statements like that.
And it is probably Chump's best hope.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)I posted on Sunday, both here and at RSD is now at MSNBC (and CNN)... cool
Some of us have been predicting that for ten years or so. Some of us can read trends, the only thing that will save the dems from their fate, at this point is a third, fourth or fight party run. (Rs, Bloomberg, Ventura).
Otherwise, Mr. Trump will be President Elect.
My question is whether the party will learn the lesson. Most likely not, and the discontent driving this is not going away.
davidn3600
(6,342 posts)Trump isn't a typical GOP candidate. So I'm not sure the traditional statistical models are really valid.
Andy823
(11,555 posts)Why can't you and your band of trash and bashers stay over there and leave this board alone?
B Calm
(28,762 posts)Cavallo
(348 posts)hifiguy
(33,688 posts)She's the walking, talking embodiment of the self-serving, self-dealing, utterly corrupt political insider class of which people are sick to death. He, Trump, while an asshole of Olympian proportions, does not fit that description in the public mind. 'tis what it is.
RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)VOX
(22,976 posts)stevenleser
(32,886 posts)LannyDeVaney
(1,033 posts)I'll go with the future President of the United States.
book_worm
(15,951 posts)It's just part of the primary wars.
cyberswede
(26,117 posts)So sorry, but the Hosts feel that this doesn't meet the SoP for GD, since it is largely about Clinton's strength as a primary candidate.
Please consider reposting in GDP. Thanks.