Would Trump’s trade threats work? Many experts are skeptical

[pampango]

Donald Trump has promised to shred America’s trade deals and impose fines on imports from Mexico and China. ... By attacking trade agreements, the Republican presidential front-runner is channeling the belief, common among many of this year’s angry voters, that foreign competition is robbing American jobs and shrinking wages.

Levying those tariffs would probably require congressional approval. It would violate commitments the United States made when it joined the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1994, and the tariffs would trigger retaliation from Mexico.

No problem, Trump says. He’d rip up NAFTA. He could exit the agreement provided he gave Mexico and Canada six months’ notice. Experts differ on whether Congress would have to authorize this.

If Trump replaced the low tariffs provided by NAFTA and World Trade Organization rules with punitive tariffs on Mexican and Chinese goods, he probably would ignite a trade war that would raise prices for Americans and cause diplomatic havoc. Economists recall that the 1930 Smoot-Hawley legislation, which raised tariffs on imports, inflamed trade tensions and worsened the Great Depression.

http://www.dailynews.com/government-and-politics/20160313/would-trumps-trade-threats-work-many-experts-are-skeptical

Something tells me that Trump will not wait for congressional approval. Krugman thinks that Trump may well follow through on his threats "as part of a reign of destruction on many fronts."

[Hoyt]

1. Isn't that essentially what Sanders proposes with opposition to trade deals? Or is he just ranting,

knowing there is not a darn thing he can do about it, and our economy would tank without trade deals.

[pampango]

2. Krugman's opinion seems to be that Sanders would see the potential diplomatic/economic damage

once in office and decide to renegotiate trade agreements rather than tearing them up while Trump would be much more likely to follow through on his threats as a part of that "reign of destruction on many fronts."

I think Krugman is on to something there.

[Hoyt]

3. Krugman also said a few days ago -- "Sanders is demagoging this issue" [trade, TPP, etc.].

But you may be right, if he were to get into office and actually listen to people he'd realize he's stuck with the trade agreements and the best he could hope for is to try to renegotiate them. My guess is he'd realize with today's world economy we need to keep our trade agreements and pray that US based corporations preform well or the domestic economy will tank.