The most underappreciated fact of the election: Americans feel good about the economy
Yes, it is true that the economic recovery since the Great Recession has proceeded in fits and starts. And, yes, current economic indicators are somewhat mixed. But voters feel favorable about the economy nevertheless. Here’s some evidence.
The longest-running measure of American attitudes about the economy is the Index of Consumer Sentiment. Below I’ve graphed trends in that index since 1960.
Before I had looked at these data, I was sure I’d find that sentiment was only a bit more positive than it was when Obama took office. But in fact, the upward trend — with the exception of the drop during the 2011 debt ceiling crisis — is striking. This upward trend is also reflected in data from Pew and Gallup.
As of the first quarter of 2016, even with a slight downturn in the second and third quarters of 2015, consumer sentiment was as positive as it had been since the mid-2000s. It was also as positive as it had been in the mid-1980s during the recovery from the recession of 1981-1982. For example, the value of consumer sentiment at the end of 1983, as Ronald Reagan’s reelection campaign was gearing up, was 91.6. In the first three months of 2015, it was almost exactly the same: 91.5.
In other words, consumer sentiment is as positive as it was at the beginning of the election year when Reagan argued that it was “Morning in America.”
But is this positive view really shared by all Americans? For example, what about the working class?
In fact, there is now a smaller gap between the views of the highest and lowest income terciles than there was under the previous presidents. What is distinctive about the Obama years — especially compared with the Reagan years — is how small the gap is between income groups. The average gap between upper- and lower-income groups from 1981-88 was 21.3 points. From 2009-2015, it was 13.4 points. This most recent gap is also lower than during the administrations of George H.W. Bush (14.7), Bill Clinton (16.7) and George W. Bush (18.4).
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/04/29/the-most-under-appreciated-fact-of-the-election-americans-feel-good-about-the-economy/
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