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marmar

(76,985 posts)
Wed May 4, 2016, 09:24 AM May 2016

Are Smartphones Doomed to the Same Fate as Personal Computers?


(Bloomberg) The smartphone market has stopped defying gravity.

After almost a decade of turbocharged sales, the $423 billion industry can no longer count on consumers to robotically upgrade their handsets, putting at risk the fat margins and steady revenue growth long envied by the rest of the hardware sector.

Signs of a sputtering market have been brewing for months, but spilled into the open last week when Apple Inc. reported its first quarterly sales decline in 13 years. Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook acknowledged on April 26 that -- nine years after the iPhone’s game-changing debut -- the market had “stopped growing.” The next day, research firm Strategy Analytics reported a 3 percent drop in first-quarter smartphone shipments, the first decline ever.

“You couldn’t help but wonder how long the party could go,” said David Hsu, a management professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School who tracks the market. .................(more)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-04/are-smartphones-doomed-to-the-same-fate-as-personal-computers




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Are Smartphones Doomed to the Same Fate as Personal Computers? (Original Post) marmar May 2016 OP
Good, maybe they'll stop charging $500 for a new phone. auntpurl May 2016 #1
The only reason they cost $500 is because they are made overseas with cheap labor. LiberalFighter May 2016 #19
Oh no, that is absurd. Jackie Wilson Said May 2016 #26
Broken clocks are right twice a day. cleanhippie May 2016 #62
like n/t okieinpain May 2016 #63
I am currently writing product descriptions for cellphone... ScreamingMeemie May 2016 #38
Well duh, FoxNewsSucks May 2016 #2
There is one thing you are not accounting for GummyBearz May 2016 #9
When all they offer in the new version is a slightly better camera, moving the headphone port to the hughee99 May 2016 #34
Yes GummyBearz May 2016 #36
wifi changes the equation Mosby May 2016 #56
Not unless they get rid of data caps. RichVRichV May 2016 #39
Data caps have been slowly improving GummyBearz May 2016 #41
2GBs is a 1.5 hour movie download. Nice to get but hardly a deal breaker. n/t RichVRichV May 2016 #49
The next big thing will be a combined device... apnu May 2016 #17
This is the right answer tkmorris May 2016 #45
Given how lucrative the "phablet" market is for phones apnu May 2016 #48
$100 tab & a cell phone. That's about it for me... Eleanors38 May 2016 #60
Bingo! brush May 2016 #54
And so it goes . . . JustAnotherGen May 2016 #3
The idea of upgrading a perfectly funtional edhopper May 2016 #4
Planned obsolescence, it's been working for the automobile industry for decades tularetom May 2016 #6
Technology does not work that way randr May 2016 #10
Which are unnecesarry for most people edhopper May 2016 #24
Most people use their phones for more than that. FLPanhandle May 2016 #30
And all of those work as well edhopper May 2016 #32
They reached that point a while back. RichVRichV May 2016 #44
true that edhopper May 2016 #53
I just jumped from an s4 to an s7 Fuddnik May 2016 #58
Uh, Tom???? ProfessorGAC May 2016 #18
How true randr May 2016 #51
Nope, how long did a 1987 Chevy Cavalier last? Lucky to get 90k out of it.. snooper2 May 2016 #20
that is a lot of miles for a young car hfojvt May 2016 #40
Dont bjuy a Toshiba PC then... Jackie Wilson Said May 2016 #27
I have had very good results from Dell edhopper May 2016 #29
I was gonna go Apple but I use connectify, and they dont have one for Apple Jackie Wilson Said May 2016 #33
I won't diss Apple edhopper May 2016 #55
Smartphones have come a long way but seem to have peaked in performance/abilities FLPanhandle May 2016 #5
Until 5G is rolled out GummyBearz May 2016 #11
That will be worth upgrading for! FLPanhandle May 2016 #15
that was my old joke hfojvt May 2016 #42
No doubt there will be a 6G GummyBearz May 2016 #47
They'd have done better to bring out updates more slowly. LisaM May 2016 #7
I always keep my previous phone in case something like that were to happen. frylock May 2016 #35
It was my first smartphone. I did (do) still have my old flipphone LisaM May 2016 #43
I had my old non-texting cell phone for 10 years before the battery would no longer hold a charge. CrispyQ May 2016 #8
I just upgraded to the Galaxy S7 gollygee May 2016 #12
+1000 n/t JustAnotherGen May 2016 #21
My Galaxy S3 stopped being reliable last October MurrayDelph May 2016 #23
Do you think the advances in technology will come to a halt? randr May 2016 #13
Just gotta say, I love all the Olde English D's in this thread.... marmar May 2016 #14
I'm from the D! GreenEyedLefty May 2016 #50
by the time the tower improvements to make faster network finally reach where i live dembotoz May 2016 #16
When they stop charging astronomical prices for new phones, get back to me. Initech May 2016 #22
soon to be replaced w/the SmartAnalPlug with spinal column interface Bucky May 2016 #25
Upgrading the dumb anal plug... chknltl May 2016 #31
I'm not convinced that personal computers have gone (or are going) extinct Orrex May 2016 #28
I just bought a small PC, and wish it was smaller... The boxes are unnecessarily huge to underahedgerow May 2016 #52
I think they'll be around for a good while, but as the article states... Lizzie Poppet May 2016 #37
Its called market saturation, it happens with pretty much every durable consumer good... Humanist_Activist May 2016 #46
expensive overpriced phones have peaked. Going forward it will not be apple seeing growth. Egnever May 2016 #57
Yep. nt bemildred May 2016 #59
Eventually once they offload the audio/visual and sensors into wearables MowCowWhoHow III May 2016 #61

LiberalFighter

(50,504 posts)
19. The only reason they cost $500 is because they are made overseas with cheap labor.
Wed May 4, 2016, 10:23 AM
May 2016

Otherwise they would cost about $2,000.

Jackie Wilson Said

(4,176 posts)
26. Oh no, that is absurd.
Wed May 4, 2016, 12:47 PM
May 2016

You have a union label on your sig but you are spouting, innocently I presume, the GOP line that we cant afford to make stuff here.

cleanhippie

(19,705 posts)
62. Broken clocks are right twice a day.
Wed May 4, 2016, 03:27 PM
May 2016

We need to accept that the manufacturing jobs that have moved overseas into cheap labor markets are never coming back.
Instead, we need to create jobs rebuilding our infrastructure and green energy systems. That's where the future jobs in this country are.

 

GummyBearz

(2,931 posts)
9. There is one thing you are not accounting for
Wed May 4, 2016, 09:43 AM
May 2016

When 5G phones come out, everyone will upgrade again. When 6G comes out, everyone will upgrade again. Etc etc.

hughee99

(16,113 posts)
34. When all they offer in the new version is a slightly better camera, moving the headphone port to the
Wed May 4, 2016, 12:58 PM
May 2016

other side, or a slightly better display, many people are going to stop paying $500 for the upgrades whenever they come out.

 

GummyBearz

(2,931 posts)
36. Yes
Wed May 4, 2016, 01:09 PM
May 2016

I stopped paying for those stupid upgrades long ago. But the faster data rates are something that people will go for

Mosby

(16,168 posts)
56. wifi changes the equation
Wed May 4, 2016, 02:40 PM
May 2016

Most of the time I only need the cell network to make calls, the browser etc use the wifi connections.

I think the price ans power of tablets are changing the cell phone market, why spend 600-800 dollars on a cell phone when a $100 tablet can do everything, most of the time better for a fraction of the cost, and with a much bigger screen.



RichVRichV

(885 posts)
39. Not unless they get rid of data caps.
Wed May 4, 2016, 01:16 PM
May 2016

We already have more bandwidth then we can make use of because of the tiny caps.

Even the unlimited plans aren't all they're cracked up to be as they usually rate limit once you hit a certain point.

 

GummyBearz

(2,931 posts)
41. Data caps have been slowly improving
Wed May 4, 2016, 01:19 PM
May 2016

ATT actually gave me 2 extra GB to my cap for the same price a few months ago out of no where.

RichVRichV

(885 posts)
49. 2GBs is a 1.5 hour movie download. Nice to get but hardly a deal breaker. n/t
Wed May 4, 2016, 02:18 PM
May 2016

I work at a WISP that offers no data caps and regularly watch people burn through 10 to 15 GBs in 6 hours binge watching on Netflix. The data caps are going to have to go way up to make those very high speeds useful day to day.

The other way to look at it is spectrum isn't unlimited. They don't have data caps just because they feel like it. The have them so they can stack hundreds of people on a tower and not bring it to a crawl.

Without data caps our over-subscription model is like 3 to 1. Cell companies are like 50 to 1 because of the data caps. It's a technical limitation as much as an economic one. No data caps means massive increase in usage which means more spectrum needed (the last spectrum auction ran over $10 billion I believe).

Right now things are going the other way. Even cable providers are starting to impliment data caps.

apnu

(8,722 posts)
17. The next big thing will be a combined device...
Wed May 4, 2016, 10:21 AM
May 2016

... that can function as a phone and a full computer but be in the form factor of a tablet. You'll keep it in a bag, and use some PAN (Personal Area Network) devices to communicate with it (glasses, head sets, gestures, and so forth)

Which is a prediction William Gibson made in the 1980s and we are still heading in that direction.

tkmorris

(11,138 posts)
45. This is the right answer
Wed May 4, 2016, 01:49 PM
May 2016

I do worry about the tablet form however. A lot of people seem to feel that the tablet is simply too cumbersome to carry around. I'm not one of them; I've always wanted a phone with a 7-9" screen myself, but I am not typical.

apnu

(8,722 posts)
48. Given how lucrative the "phablet" market is for phones
Wed May 4, 2016, 01:58 PM
May 2016

Apple even broke down and created one.

Its pretty clear to me that people want a all-in-one device for computing, communications, and entertainment needs.

 

Eleanors38

(18,318 posts)
60. $100 tab & a cell phone. That's about it for me...
Wed May 4, 2016, 03:06 PM
May 2016

Here I thought tablets were written off as obsolete.

brush

(53,475 posts)
54. Bingo!
Wed May 4, 2016, 02:38 PM
May 2016

They'll come up with something like Adobe did with their programs like Photoshop and Illustrator.

Before you bought your own personal copies of the programs or suite of programs and stored them on your home computer and upgraded them or not when a new version came out.

Now they've cut that out.

You can't by the programs anymore, they are stored on the cloud and you pay a monthly access fee, which adds up over years to way more than the cost of owning the programs.

You can bet they're working on something to keep their revenue stream from shrinking too much.

edhopper

(33,208 posts)
4. The idea of upgrading a perfectly funtional
Wed May 4, 2016, 09:30 AM
May 2016

appliance every two years due to minor improvements is absurd.

My 5 year old PC and 4 year old phone work fine.

tularetom

(23,664 posts)
6. Planned obsolescence, it's been working for the automobile industry for decades
Wed May 4, 2016, 09:34 AM
May 2016

Why shouldn't the smart phone industry try it too?

randr

(12,408 posts)
10. Technology does not work that way
Wed May 4, 2016, 09:44 AM
May 2016

There are literally thousands of people working daily to develop new and faster devices.

edhopper

(33,208 posts)
24. Which are unnecesarry for most people
Wed May 4, 2016, 12:44 PM
May 2016

who 99% of the time make calls, text or search the internet.

FLPanhandle

(7,107 posts)
30. Most people use their phones for more than that.
Wed May 4, 2016, 12:54 PM
May 2016

Navigation apps are complex but need to be fast and interactive (e.g. Waze). The more powerful the computing power and network, the better.

Video, especially among the younger crowd is huge. No one makes calls. Sharing quick videos like with Snapchat though is common.

Music is probably the biggest use of a smartphone not calls or texting. Music search apps, libraries, sharing playlists is now standard with smartphone users.

Feedback apps with location finders is another big use of smartphones.

Photography is now one of the biggest uses of a smartphone. Camera quality and photo editing apps need and use better technology.


I could go on but I would say 99% of the time, a smartphone is NOT being used to make calls or text.

edhopper

(33,208 posts)
32. And all of those work as well
Wed May 4, 2016, 12:56 PM
May 2016

on an iPhone 5 as a 6s. Phones have gotten to the point that you just don't need to upgrade every two years.

RichVRichV

(885 posts)
44. They reached that point a while back.
Wed May 4, 2016, 01:26 PM
May 2016

It just took people a while to realize how wasteful the upgrades are.


I'm still on a Galaxy S3 and it does everything I want (other than being a battery sucking black hole).

ProfessorGAC

(64,425 posts)
18. Uh, Tom????
Wed May 4, 2016, 10:22 AM
May 2016

The auto industry changed that business model in the late 70's and early 80's? That's why we see so many 15, 20 and 25 year old cars are the road every day.

In 1970, one almost NEVER saw a 1951 Chevy. I'm reasonably comfortable in life and i'm driving a 19 year old Chrysler back and forth to work. And, i'm not the only one.

randr

(12,408 posts)
51. How true
Wed May 4, 2016, 02:28 PM
May 2016

In the 50's and 60's a car was ready to re-build or junk at not much more than 50,000 miles.
Apple may be the only tech company left still catering to the vanity of its customers.

 

snooper2

(30,151 posts)
20. Nope, how long did a 1987 Chevy Cavalier last? Lucky to get 90k out of it..
Wed May 4, 2016, 10:26 AM
May 2016

now even the cheap cars are good for 150-70K...

My 2003 Dakota just got totaled from a hail storm and they gave me over 5K for it minus my 1k deductible, buyback value and taxes. And it has 162K miles...


hfojvt

(37,573 posts)
40. that is a lot of miles for a young car
Wed May 4, 2016, 01:17 PM
May 2016

My 1991 that I got from my dad just turned 255,555.5 miles. Time takes as much of a toll as mileage. As my mechanic said rust never sleeps.

edhopper

(33,208 posts)
55. I won't diss Apple
Wed May 4, 2016, 02:40 PM
May 2016

but I find with Windows and Android just fine and don't think Apple better.

I can do things on my Android Tablet that iPads have trouble with.

FLPanhandle

(7,107 posts)
5. Smartphones have come a long way but seem to have peaked in performance/abilities
Wed May 4, 2016, 09:32 AM
May 2016

Not much reason to upgrade when there isn't much difference between the new and older models.

hfojvt

(37,573 posts)
42. that was my old joke
Wed May 4, 2016, 01:19 PM
May 2016

"Where's the 5G, we are still using 4G? What is this, the dark ages?"

Once 5G is rolled out, I am gonna start demanding 6G.

 

GummyBearz

(2,931 posts)
47. No doubt there will be a 6G
Wed May 4, 2016, 01:56 PM
May 2016

Consumers want their toys. Right now the 5G frequencies and bandwidth standards are still in flux (at least in the US). There are a couple companies designing chips for all possible 5G solutions. We are still about 6 months to 1 year away from a lab demo, so the timeline is long. One big carrier is pushing harder than the others to implement 5G ASAP, which could get things moving faster.

LisaM

(27,762 posts)
7. They'd have done better to bring out updates more slowly.
Wed May 4, 2016, 09:37 AM
May 2016

I dropped my first smartphone in the ocean two months after I got it (saving my dog). It was only two months old and I couldn't even get the same model AND they wouldn't just sell me another phone, I had to add a line. They were terrible about it and totally intractable, obviously entirely willing to let me pay for 22 months while receiving no service because I now didn't have a phone. That industry is ripe for some regulation.

frylock

(34,825 posts)
35. I always keep my previous phone in case something like that were to happen.
Wed May 4, 2016, 01:00 PM
May 2016

I have a Galaxy S3 in the bullpen, and once I upgrade in December, I'll donate that and use my S5 as a backup device.

LisaM

(27,762 posts)
43. It was my first smartphone. I did (do) still have my old flipphone
Wed May 4, 2016, 01:21 PM
May 2016

which I went back to. That thing is indestructible!

CrispyQ

(36,231 posts)
8. I had my old non-texting cell phone for 10 years before the battery would no longer hold a charge.
Wed May 4, 2016, 09:43 AM
May 2016

Then I bought a smart phone. I was drawn by the bells & whistles. What a waste of money for me. For what I spent, it better last 10 years.

I read an article a few weeks ago that tablets are in even less demand.

gollygee

(22,336 posts)
12. I just upgraded to the Galaxy S7
Wed May 4, 2016, 09:44 AM
May 2016

But the last one I had was the Galaxy 3, and I only replaced it because it wasn't working right anymore.

I don't understand getting a new phone when your old one still works.

(I do love my new phone though!)

MurrayDelph

(5,281 posts)
23. My Galaxy S3 stopped being reliable last October
Wed May 4, 2016, 11:45 AM
May 2016

and I replaced it with a Galaxy S5 despite being considered inferior to the S6. It is probably my last Samsung, as they have gone the Apple way of non-removable batteries, which is a deal-killer (I travel a lot, and if I need my phone I am willing to put up with a one-minute battery swap, but not with a 10-minute mini-charge from an external battery)

randr

(12,408 posts)
13. Do you think the advances in technology will come to a halt?
Wed May 4, 2016, 09:48 AM
May 2016

Of course smart phones will become obsolete. The next phase of communication technology will probably be much smaller and bio compatible. Smart ear buds are already in the works. Contact lenses that are responsive to gestures. Actual eye implants that improve vision and offer cyborgish connectivity.
A brave new world is approaching, you will be assimilated.

dembotoz

(16,739 posts)
16. by the time the tower improvements to make faster network finally reach where i live
Wed May 4, 2016, 10:19 AM
May 2016

perhaps my current smart will wear out by then....but not holding my breath

Orrex

(63,086 posts)
28. I'm not convinced that personal computers have gone (or are going) extinct
Wed May 4, 2016, 12:50 PM
May 2016

Yes, PC sales are down, but that may very well be because PCs are lasting longer than the business model planned for.

underahedgerow

(1,232 posts)
52. I just bought a small PC, and wish it was smaller... The boxes are unnecessarily huge to
Wed May 4, 2016, 02:31 PM
May 2016

this day, and I never understood why they didn't make them more fun looking, like in colors, bright colors! Same with laptops! Why not make them in pretty, fun or cool colors?

That would shake the home computer market up a bit. I have been checking out the super tiny pcs, and they're very cool, but not for the price, yet. They will come down in a couple years I guess.

I bought the PC because I needed more meat for my website and to connect it directly to my smart tv so that I can use the bigger screen for my tired eyes.

The 'problem' with mobile phones is that they're actually making them decent quality now. Touch wood, I've been a samsung gal since forever. The latest series has been touch wood, completely bug free and totally reliable. I didn't need to upgrade to the S6 Edge, but I'm glad I did, it doesn't have an accessible battery and that's much improved over the S4. I like the Edge, but aside from the camera upgrade there's no difference between the S6 and S7.

The mobile phone market is saturated, not coming to an end. We now have our computers in our pockets, but I can't build my websites on my phone, and the laptop screen is too small, even though it's a big one. I have a super mini laptop, but never use it, and a tablet I only use on the train. It's annoying to type on the screen. Hate the touch screen unless I'm playing games.

 

Lizzie Poppet

(10,164 posts)
37. I think they'll be around for a good while, but as the article states...
Wed May 4, 2016, 01:15 PM
May 2016

...the frantic, "addict behavior" mad urge to continually update to the latest model will rapidly abate. In part, that's because fewer updates are truly revolutionary any more (as this technology matures), making the often considerable outlay less appealing. Moreover, as the pace of tech advancement for these devices slows, the more prices for the current cutting edge will drop (production runs are longer, meaning less-frequent retooling, better economy-of-scale, etc.).

 

Humanist_Activist

(7,670 posts)
46. Its called market saturation, it happens with pretty much every durable consumer good...
Wed May 4, 2016, 01:54 PM
May 2016

the demand for automatic dishwashers I'm sure was a hot commodity when they first came out, but now we only buy them when we have to, when they break, wear down, and don't work as well anymore. Same for PCs, laptops, tablets, smartphones, etc. Smartphones are the hot new thing, but once everyone who wants one has one, and they like it, then the cycle of upgrades/binge buying is going to slow down, despite the incentives that exist through cellular services.

 

Egnever

(21,506 posts)
57. expensive overpriced phones have peaked. Going forward it will not be apple seeing growth.
Wed May 4, 2016, 02:40 PM
May 2016

The days of massively overcharging people for smartphones are over.


"With the smartphone market finally slowing to single-digit growth, maintaining momentum will depend on several factors," said Ryan Reith , Program Director with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker . "The main driver has been and will continue to be the success of low-cost smartphones in emerging markets. This, in turn, will depend on capturing value-oriented first-time smartphone buyers as well as replacement buyers. We believe that, in a number of high-growth markets, replacement cycles will be less than the typical two-year rate, mainly because the components that comprise a sub-$100 smartphone simply do not have the ability to survive two years. Offering products that appeal to both types of buyers at a suitable price point will be crucial to maintaining growth and vendor success."

MowCowWhoHow III

(2,103 posts)
61. Eventually once they offload the audio/visual and sensors into wearables
Wed May 4, 2016, 03:18 PM
May 2016

This might be a step in that direction ($0.5 billion suggests it's not vapourware)

Magic Leap

A startup is betting more than half a billion dollars that it will dazzle you with its approach to creating 3-D imagery.

Availability: 1-3 years


Logically, I know there isn’t a hulking four-armed, twisty-horned blue monster clomping in circles in front of me, but it sure as hell looks like it.

I’m sitting behind a workbench in a white-walled room in Dania Beach, Florida, in the office of a secretive startup called Magic Leap. I’m staring wide-eyed through a pair of lenses attached to what looks like metal scaffolding that towers over my head and contains a bunch of electronics and lenses. It’s an early prototype of the company’s so-called cinematic-­reality technology, which makes it possible for me to believe that the muscular beast with the gruff expression and two sets of swinging arms is actually in the room with me, hovering about seven feet in front of my face.

He’s not just visible at a set distance. I’m holding a video-game controller that’s connected to the demo station, and at the press of a button I can make the monster smaller or larger, move him right or left, bring him closer, or push him farther away.

Of course, I bring him as near as possible; I want to see how real he looks up close. Now he’s about 30 inches from my eyeballs and, though I’ve made him pocket-sized, looks about as authentic as a monster could—he seems to have rough skin, muscular limbs, and deep-set beady eyes. I extend my hand to give him a base to walk on, and I swear I feel a tingling in my palm in expectation of his little feet pressing into it. When, a split second later, my brain remembers that this is just an impressively convincing 3-D image displayed in the real space in front of me, all I can do is grin.

More: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/534971/magic-leap/





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