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NCTraveler

(30,481 posts)
Wed May 4, 2016, 11:38 AM May 2016

Clinton has consistently been ahead in head to head match up polls with Trump.

This is great news for this current moment in time. We have a starting point. Clinton is moving on to the GE and just like Trump gets to start his GE campaign early. Not only do I believe we are in a solid position now, I believe we can actually build off of it. Nothing is guaranteed. This is going to be the fight of a lifetime. I will take a win against trump no matter how it comes. By ten electoral points or over a hundred.

CNN/ORC 4/28 - 5/1 890 RV 3.5 54 41 Clinton +13

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton IBD/TIPP Clinton 47, Trump 40 Clinton +7

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton GWU/Battleground Clinton 46, Trump 43 Clinton +3

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton USA Today/Suffolk Clinton 50, Trump 39 Clinton +11

Florida: Trump vs. Clinton AIF (R) Clinton 49, Trump 36 Clinton +13

17 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Agnosticsherbet

(11,619 posts)
1. I have resisted paying attention to these until now.
Wed May 4, 2016, 11:43 AM
May 2016

Trump has won the nomination process, so it is time to keep an eye on comparisons.

 

HooptieWagon

(17,064 posts)
3. GE polls are valid now?
Wed May 4, 2016, 11:45 AM
May 2016

Quite the flip-flop. Since GE polls are now considered valid by Hillarians, I'll remind you that Sanders polls much better against Trump than Hillary does.

auntpurl

(4,311 posts)
5. GE polls are SLIGHTLY more valid now because we know who the two nominees will be.
Wed May 4, 2016, 11:48 AM
May 2016

But it's still very early to take them too seriously. It's good news - nothing more. We cannot be complacent.

 

NCTraveler

(30,481 posts)
7. I really thought I presented it in a way that made their validity clear.
Wed May 4, 2016, 11:54 AM
May 2016

I guess I wasn't clear enough. It is a positive sign but nothing more.

"We cannot be complacent."

We must be proactive and work hard to get Clinton elected.

 

NCTraveler

(30,481 posts)
10. I did notice that your reply was to them.
Wed May 4, 2016, 11:58 AM
May 2016

Sometimes I read replies and then read my op again and wonder where the reply came from. I try to be fair when addressing people.

I appreciate you taking the time to read my op and take it for how it was meant. I'm not sure how anyone reading could feel slighted in any way.

 

NCTraveler

(30,481 posts)
6. Yes, we are moving into the GE.
Wed May 4, 2016, 11:52 AM
May 2016

It is Clinton V Trump. It makes sense to at least take them into consideration at this point.

They say absolutely nothing about what will happen when voting starts. They will obviously fluctuate as the GE moves forward.

My post isn't about Sanders or the primary.

 

HooptieWagon

(17,064 posts)
11. Clinton is not the nominee yet, and Sanders still bests her vs Trump.
Wed May 4, 2016, 01:30 PM
May 2016

Glad you now recognize GE polls are acceptable.

 

NCTraveler

(30,481 posts)
13. We are moving into the GE.
Wed May 4, 2016, 02:25 PM
May 2016

Glad you now recognize Clinton leads Trump in these polls. I do not use these polls to determine who I vote for in a primary as you do. It's really not significant at this point as I'm no longer in primary mode. We are in really solid shape moving forward but will have to work hard.

Bucky

(53,997 posts)
4. Dukakis has consistently been ahead in head to head match up polls with Bush
Wed May 4, 2016, 11:47 AM
May 2016

It ain't October yet. I would advise more time hatchin' eggs and less time spent on counting our chicks

 

NCTraveler

(30,481 posts)
9. Not one chicken was counted in my op. Not one. Thanks. I agree with you.
Wed May 4, 2016, 11:55 AM
May 2016

So it looks like your advice has fallen on agreeable ears.

Peace Patriot

(24,010 posts)
12. Sanders beats Trump by TWICE the margin Clinton does. Is that why you left out the url?
Wed May 4, 2016, 01:37 PM
May 2016

Here it is:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html

Sanders vs Trump

Average: +13.4
CNN: +16
IBD-TIPP: +12
USA Today: +15
GWU: +10
Fox: +14

And you left out the Rasmussen poll in which Clinton LOSES to Trump:

Clinton vs Trump
Rasmussen: Trump +2

And you left out Clinton's average:

Sanders vs Trump: Sanders average +13.4
Clinton vs Trump: Clinton average +6.5

Sanders has been beating Trump by much bigger margins than Clinton in all polls I've seen since January. He is the much surer bet against Trump than Clinton is.

In addition, she has very high negatives on trustworthiness and favorability, while Sanders has very high positives, and that, too, has been consistent over time.

You might want to go back to saying that national matchups are "meaningless" until your bought-and-paid-for "superdelegates" can eliminate the best Democratic candidate, Bernie Sanders, and go with their gold-plated, Goldman-Sachs-paid for Hillary Clinton, who is loathed by independents (40% of the electorate) and will drive the young, wholesale, from the Democratic Party.

Up to you, but I think, when polls have been screaming at us for months that Clinton is vulnerable to Trump, and that Sanders is a much better candidate for the GE, and looking at the false picture we get of Clinton's candidacy due to, a) the "closed" Dem primaries, and b) the stacked advantages Clinton has had within the Democratic Party, we ought to look at reality and not be fooled by our own inner "unicorns and ponies."

When the Clinton campaign uses "unicorns and ponies" to describe a $15 minimum wage and free public college tuition, they shouldn't wonder why so many people heartily support Sanders and oppose Clinton. Clinton seems to be clueless about what the lives of most Americans are like these days.

 

NCTraveler

(30,481 posts)
14. No, that isn't why I left out the url.
Wed May 4, 2016, 02:26 PM
May 2016

Strange assumption. I didn't realize I needed a url.

I was addressing the GE.

Peace Patriot

(24,010 posts)
17. Yeah, well, when you cite facts it's good to cite ALL the facts, and the source.
Wed May 4, 2016, 05:22 PM
May 2016

You left out the Rasmussen poll, where Clinton LOSES to Trump. That's relevant to the GE. It's only one poll but it points to Clinton's vulnerability.

And you left out the information that her average margin against Trump is only +6.5, while Sanders' is +13.4. THAT is relevant to NOW and the choice that Californians, Oregonians, West Virginians and others are about to make, and it is relevant to the GE as well. Who is best positioned to beat Trump? Who doesn't just beat but demolishes Trump in national polls? Who draws independent voters (40% of the electorate), young voters and new Democrats?

You are jumping to the GE before the nomination process is over, and are simply ignoring the strongest Democratic candidate against Trump. This is very relevant to the GE if your view is typical of the Democratic Party establishment, as it seems to be. The large margin of difference between Sanders and Trump (Sanders average +13.4 over Trump) is going to all but vanish in the GE, if Clinton is the nominee. All that strength that Sanders has built up for the Democratic Party will largely go away, because Clinton is so unpopular and so distrusted; she will be left with her current base, which is mostly within the Democratic Party and nowhere else, and a whole lot of iffy voters and anti-Clinton voters.

There is also a psychological element to that margin (for Sanders), as well. It's not just that they don't like Clinton, but many of these independent voters, young voters and new voters are increasingly aware of the efforts to disenfranchise them, which were so dramatic in New York and Arizona. They have no reason to come out for Clinton, on policy or on attitude.

 

Egnever

(21,506 posts)
15. Likely true but
Wed May 4, 2016, 02:30 PM
May 2016

he has to beat her in the primaries first.

There are a lot of republicans pissed at the outcome of their primary as well but that won't change the candidates in the general.

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