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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsSo how does Hillary beat Trump?
Contrary to popular belief I think it's going to be hard to campaign against Trump. He doesn't know issues and has no depth but Trump is a hate sponge. He thrives off negativity and insults. We saw that in his face off with rubio. He has no shame, refuses to apologize, and speaks off the cuff. Hillary has a tendency to pander and flip flop. One of two things is going to happen between now and November: either Hillary is going to say something she has to take back in a way that makes her look phony and un-electable which will make her lose small or Trump's supporters will do something terrible and he'll lose big. Trump reminds me of bush- rich and stupid but he'll have a lower bar to jump than Hillary. He doesn't have to make people like him he just has to make people hate her more. Hillary has to come off as genuine and trustworthy.
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yourpaljoey
(2,166 posts)craigmatic
(4,510 posts)that the media environment supports a trump run now if for no other reason than to push the horse race narrative. So now you have a guy who has the support of the media who is basically immune to most attacks, and has a low competency threshold. Where have we seen this picture before?
yourpaljoey
(2,166 posts)Chasstev365
(7,798 posts)
nini
(16,830 posts)Not everyone buys his bully bullshit.
craigmatic
(4,510 posts)That's where the problem is. It's going to be hard to run against him.
silvershadow
(10,336 posts)
FrodosPet
(5,169 posts)As I have said elsewhere, the Teflon Donald does not need a majority of individual votes. He needs 270 electoral votes. How is Texas going to go? Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Indiana? Alas, I can see him winning Ohio, Pennsylvania, even *shudder* Michigan.
pansypoo53219
(23,034 posts)ChisolmTrailDem
(9,463 posts)...is why people don't like her in the first place.
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)As well, it is impossible to win in the country without the AA and Latino vote.
craigmatic
(4,510 posts)Like I said he doesn't have to make people like him he just has to make them hate her more and that is possible.
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)
BlindTiresias
(1,563 posts)He just needs to siphon off 15-20% of the AA vote and it cancels out any advantage the Democrats have. Easily, easily achievable.
As for the hispanic population, voter suppression and the fact they are a not a monolithic bloc and can be divided into particular interest groups would work just fine.
We have been repeating this for months now: Do not underestimate Trump.
ProudToBeBlueInRhody
(16,399 posts)Of course, he has his supporters here.
Matter of fact......
La Lioness Priyanka
(53,866 posts)basically the democratic coalition hate him
FrodosPet
(5,169 posts)...believe.
[hr]
Tavis Smiley: Black America could get on Trump train
http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2016/03/01/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-black-voters-primary-elections-2016-column/81150932/
Tavis Smiley 5:52 p.m. EST March 3, 2016
~ snip ~
Nonetheless, the conventional wisdom is that black voters have forgiven the Clintons for their attempt to diminish Obama's 2008 presidential campaign, and this time around, they’ve got Hillary’s back. Except everyone knows that in this presidential election cycle, conventional wisdom left the building long before the train ever left the station. Something tells me that if Donald Trump is indeed the Republican nominee, it might be a miscalculation for Democrats to take for granted that black voters are a lock for their nominee, even with the first black president and Barack Obama both campaigning for her.
For starters, charisma, charm and likeability aren’t transferable. While the chance to elect the first woman president is indeed tantalizing for many, in black America specifically, it’s not exactly the same as watching an African-American first family taking up residence at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Indeed, even women haven’t as yet rallied en masse around Hillary the way black folk did around Obama.
Second, the number of everyday black voters we assume will dismiss Trump because of his anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim attacks might well be inflated. While I certainly have had my say about Trump being a “religious and racial arsonist” (and he responded quickly on Twitter), not everyone in black America agrees with me. I have been taken aback by myriad conversations I’ve had with black folk who don’t find those comments by Trump necessarily or automatically disqualifying. In the coming days, we will see whether his initial refusal last Sunday on CNN to disavow the endorsement of David Duke, the Ku Klux Klan and white supremacy might anger black voters. Interestingly, almost two months ago, CNN ran a story about a white supremacist group doing robocalls for Trump in Iowa. He didn’t denounce them then and seems not to have suffered for it.
Third, though it is true that black/brown political coalitions have had strategic successes, it is also true that there have been plenty of other occasions where the interests of black and brown voters didn’t exactly align. In California where I live, Latinos are still smarting from the lack of black voter support in 1994 to help defeat the anti-immigrant Proposition 187. At best, it’s a big assumption to think that both the black political establishment and everyday black voters share the same sentiment on Trump’s anti-immigrant stance. Scary, but honestly, I’m not so sure.
~ snip ~
Skittles
(171,719 posts)I would start by making insinuations about his tiny fingers
BillZBubb
(10,650 posts)I'm sure she and her advisors know independents by a large margin don't like her and probably never will. So, their task is to make independents dislike or fear trump more. There is no way Hillary will ever come off as genuine or trustworthy.
trump's task is to prevent that from happening by pounding Hillary as hard as she pounds him. He'll try to tone down his rhetoric and not be quite so insulting while attacking her on the issues where she is vulnerable. Whether he can do so if the big question.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)and you sir are correct, It is going to be harder than nails.
For starters, the midwest... and we all concluded that even PA (has gone blue every November since 1996) might be. And NY has an off chance of being in play, native son kind of a thing, vs native daughter.
Yeah, yeah bored reporters, we were playing with the phones.
lindysalsagal
(22,916 posts)No matter what crap he spews. She can do that for 6 months. If anyone can ignore him, she can.
eridani
(51,907 posts)eridani
(51,907 posts)If he does, and runs to Clinton's left on TPP, we could be in real trouble.
fred v
(271 posts)He has zero self-control.
eridani
(51,907 posts)fred v
(271 posts)And don't even bother with the Indictment Fantasy: Not gonna happen!
egduj
(881 posts)BlindTiresias
(1,563 posts)Trump has been supposedly at the edge of defeat according to people like you months now and he keeps getting stronger. It is time to cut the smug attitude and recognize a threat.
fishwax
(29,346 posts)Nothing is impossible, but between demographic factors, the electoral map we've seen in the lsat few cycles, the stronger support of party machinery and ground organization for Clinton, etc., Trump is still a long shot at this point.
Liberal_in_LA
(44,397 posts)
CentralMass
(16,973 posts)
lovemydog
(11,833 posts)merrily
(45,251 posts)Albertoo
(2,016 posts)Trump is unelectable: not enough substance, too much extremism.
His real talent for TV showmanship won't carry him through the electoral process.
The problem will be the day after election: both Sanders (inequalities) and Trump (blue collars, islamism) raised real issues that Hillary might choose to not to tackle.
Peace Patriot
(24,010 posts)Look at her numbers vs Trump. She even LOSES to Trump in one poll (Rasmussen).
Recent matchup polls:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html
Now look at Bernie Sanders vs Trump. He beats Trump by TWICE the margins that Clinton beats Trump, in these recent polls, and he's been doing this for 4 to 5 months now. (I've been following those polls.)
Further, three of Clinton's numbers are within, or not far from, the margin of error. So, while Sanders demolishes Trump, Clinton has an uphill battle and many handicaps, including very bad trustworthy and favorability numbers, and very bad "momentum" curves (the more people are exposed to her, the less they like her--whereas Sanders has the opposite effect). Trump's favorability is also low, but he has something going for him that I don't think many analysts have yet perceived, and it is this: vs Clinton, Trump looks like the rebel to many people.
I'm working class and have many working class friends and acquaintances, and they despise Clinton and admire Trump for the very reason that he is unpredictable and irreverent and beholden only to himself (a self-made man). They view Clinton as the corrupt establishment that oppresses them, but not Trump. He is, maybe, what they aspire to be? Rich enough so that no one can control them?
And here is a fascinating fact: One of these acquaintances said to me that she would love a Trump/Sanders ticket!
Go figure.
But what this may mean is that, if Sanders is our nominee, he can get such voters to think more seriously about the issues, and understand how much better his New Deal-platform would be for them, than anything Trump has to offer. SOMETHING Sanders has said, that has gotten through to this acquaintance, has caused her to view Sanders so favorably that she would want him as Trump's VP. (Trump is her first choice.) Sounds crazy, but to her it wasn't. To her it was logical. Why?
Clinton, and the entire Democratic Party establishment, and the Corrupt Media have all underestimated (or haven't even noticed) the rebellion that has been boiling beneath the surface of this country for a very long time. If we nominate Clinton, we will not only lose leadership of that rebellion, we will GIVE the leadership of it to Trump! It will become a fascist rather than a democratic, New Deal rebellion. If we nominate Sanders, the rebellious energy is OURS and will go in a very positive direction, toward substantive and long overdue reform, and a better deal for everybody.
One more thing: The independent voters are the key to the General Election. Clinton can't draw them. Sanders does and will. The Dem primaries have been too stacked and too exclusive to reflect this reality. Clinton has focused all her attention on a narrow base within the Democratic Party, which is not the majority party any more. The independents are the majority party. And they overwhelmingly dislike Clinton and won't be herded. Some are attracted by Trump's rebel-ness. But many more respond to Sanders' thoughtful analysis and agenda, as the polls cited above show, and as polls have consistently shown for many months. We are NOT getting an accurate picture of the electorate in the Dem primaries. There are many progressives, now, who are outside of the Democratic Party.
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)Two anti-Trump videos the Clinton campaign just released.
She's already started. She's got a fantastic organisation and is going to hammer Trump all the way to November.
BlueMTexpat
(15,690 posts)
pampango
(24,692 posts)Trump wants to isolate us from the world with walls, tariffs, travel bans and ripping up international agreements. If Americans want a RW demagogue who will do that, they know whom to vote for and there is not much we can do about it. (Going Trump-lite is a recipe for disaster.)
If we cannot offer a clear view of why the US should rein in our own 1% and engage constructively with the rest of the world (95% of people are not American) like Canada, Sweden and a host of other progressive countries do, then voters will choose the RW demagogue who offers scapegoats rather than solutions.
Then we will endure the pro-1%, isolationist aftermath like we did in the 1920's until a new FDR (or something altogether worse) comes along.
greymattermom
(5,807 posts)People's lives depend on it, and folks in areas like east Kentucky and West Virginia are poorly educated and in panic mode. We all know that it's over for coal, but promise them something. Even prison jobs are better than nothing. They can't all move. Without education, they can't compete for jobs outside their region anyway.