Looking to November: Clinton leads Trump by double-digits in new poll

[NCTraveler]

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We are in a great position as we move into the general. I believe these number will grow coming out of our convention. I don't think they will hold to this great of a degree but there is no doubt we are in a great position.

Clinton has a 54% to 41% advantage over Trump in a hypothetical matchup — her largest lead over Trump since July, according to the poll.

https://www.google.com/amp/amp.usatoday.com/story/83929258/?client=safari#

[StayFrosty]

1. B b b b b but Rasmussen showed her losing!

Funny how they cling on to any poll that shows her losing but yet ignore the countless of polls that show her leading by double digit margins

She's up 67+ with minorities in that CNN poll released yesterday

[Cryptoad]

26. When u can't count past 2000,,,

u damn sure can't grasp the Science of Statistics !

[AgadorSparticus]

35. Yep! I saw that. The one outlier and they glom on to it to fuel their hate for Hillary.

I didn't see the latest number from cnn. Even moreso....

[Jarqui]

2. I did a state by state check for electoral votes

It came out as 357 Clinton to 181 Trump.

Looks real good for Hilary on the surface.

And Trumps 181 EV is full of leaners - not a lot of outright winners.

Now that was done with an incomplete set of polls (had to project some states that didn't have Clinton v Trump polling). And in most states there are not enough recent polls done to provide a very reliable picture.

So it's the best guess I could make but remains a real guess.

Typically red states like Arizona, Kentucky or Utah are close but Clinton's slightly leading so they can be turned around fairly easily. Flip Florida, Ohio, North Carolina (all within 5 pts or less) and Trump is almost there.

Trump is what he is. We kind of know that about him. The GOP have their ads in the can since 2014 to nail Hillary. The email scandal, Clinton Foundation, etc haven't really been vetted. Sanders left them alone.

I think it's going to start to get quite ugly for Hillary from this point going forward. And when they've done that, they'll flip those close states.

[groundloop]

32. Good analysis. ALSO, the name 'Clinton' will bring out GOPers in droves on election day

GOPers absolutely HATE the Clintons, they will definitely turn out to vote against her. And as you point out, their propaganda machine will bring up every little bit of dirt it can either dig up or fabricate in an attempt to keep voter turnout down. This election is not going to be easy, we need to get behind our candidate (I'm still holding out hope for Bernie, but will certainly support Hillary if she's the nominee) and make damned sure T-rump never steps foot in the White House.

[Jarqui]

36. I agree heartily about GOP hatred of the Clintons helping bring them out to the

polls. I think that also plays among the Dems - a bunch of Dems don't like her but can't vote for the GOP so they won't go to the polls.

Another group of voters won't like either candidate by will lean Trump because at least he represents some sort of change (although many around here like me are horrified by some of the changes he might represent).

It's not a good situation for the Dems but at least the GOP are nominating the worst or a bad candidate.

I do not know if anyone will step forward but to me, I've never seen a situation better for an independent candidate to run for the office. The unfavorables of Trump and unfavorables/ untrustworthiness of Clinton would provide a heck of a shot.

[rpannier]

3. Good. But it can lead to complaceny

Carter lead Ford by 33 and nearly lost the election
and
Dukakis lead Bush by 18 after the Democratic Convention of 88

[brer cat]

4. I agree, rpannier.

However, in this election the fear of the disaster Trump would be should eliminate that possibility. For example, I think AAs and Latinos/Hispanics will flood the voting booths, possibly in record numbers. They stand to lose too much under a president Trump not to stand up.

[Hortensis]

5. Umhm, but it won't. The Hillary campaign has been

analyzing everything the GOP and its candidates and the dark money manipulators did wrong that lead to Trump becoming unstoppable. Underestimating him and his ability to hold his followers, with resultant complacency, were of course major mistakes, and they have no intention of copying them. As we see with Hillary pulling funds and staff from the primary phase and moving directly to the GE.

[rpannier]

57. Not really worried about the Clinton campaign

More about people in general figuring there is no way we can lose this
Wind up with the Bart Simpson effect

[Hortensis]

58. Not a good thought, but it seems probable that

The Donald, even a newer "presidential" version, will be able to put on a good enough show to keep people worried that he could somehow win. With the assistance of the press, of course. And assuming a third-party candidate doesn't appear.

I know I don't expect to be able to relax for some months, and knowing intellectually that she should win easily doesn't erase that inner dark anxiety when thoughts of The Donald one step from Commander in Chief arise.

[NCTraveler]

7. I agree.

We cannot become overconfident. As I stated, I don't think they will hold. I don't simply dismiss Trump.

[hamsterjill]

53. Thank you.

As a Texan, I learned my lesson via George W. Bush. Cheat or no cheat, I never thought I'd see his ugly face in the White House.

I take nothing for granted. I love that Hillary is in a good position, and I believe the stats for that, but we must all still work hard and not take even ONE vote for granted to make sure that we don't wind up with a casino next door to the White House.

[FreakinDJ]

13. Gore led Bush II by 16% up until august 2000

well you know the rest

[LanternWaste]

19. And Roosevelt led Wallace by 23% in 1940. Well, you know the rest, Part II.

And Roosevelt led Wallace by 23% in 1940. Well, you know the rest, Part II.

Six of one, half a dozen of the other.

[FreakinDJ]

21. Apples to Oranges

[1939]

48. Wallace was FDR's VP running mate in 1940.

Wendell Willkie was the GOP nominee.

[auntpurl]

6. Love that pic of her.

The polls are probably still tenuous - but it's all good news. And Hillary is the LAST person who is going to get complacent.

[Helen Borg]

10. But not the last person to get indicted.

Just saying...

[auntpurl]

14. Hoping for that, are you?

Fingers crossed!

[Helen Borg]

17. It would be devastating if she was the nominee and

she was indicted during the general. Obviously.

[auntpurl]

20. Don't worry. It's not going to happen. nt

[Helen Borg]

22. Oh, OK then. That settles it.

[RoccoR5955]

8. Don't count your chickens

before they hatch.

[NCTraveler]

11. No chicken counting here. Nt

[Helen Borg]

9. And Bernie leads Trump by triple digits!

[NCTraveler]

12. I wonder where O'Malley polls against Trump.

[RoccoR5955]

15. +1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000! n.t.

[leftofcool]

23. No, he doesn't.

[magical thyme]

16. Meh. CNN (same pollster) had Clinton +12 back in March. MOE of 3 means no change

And 2 data points do not make a trend.

Between March and now, Morning Consult has conducted 5 or 6 polls, ranging from +5 to +9, but mostly hovering at +6 or 7.

Several other pollsters with multiple polls show her lead declining since March from +10-12 down to the +6-7 range.

[NCTraveler]

18. Really solid numbers.

Thanks for adding the information. It's a great place to be moving into the GE.

[Roland99]

24. And Bernie leads Trump 56-40 in that same poll. A LARGER lead

who's more electable?

[NCTraveler]

25. Where does O'Malley poll?

Clinton is in a great position. We can get too confident.

[Moostache]

27. I do not care about margin as much as the volume of Trump "support"...

41% ?!?!?!?!?!?
4 out of 10 Americans believe that its a GOOD idea to put that completely unqualified Orangutan anywhere NEAR the Oval Office?

I can't believe that. We are collectively well and truly fucked.

[The Far Left]

28. But who will turnout to vote?

I may vote for the better of two candidates, but Trump will likely go negative to reduce Clinton's voter turnout for the General Election, assuming she wins the Primary.

Where are the CNN reports of Sander's numbers?

[Nye Bevan]

30. Women who don't want "some form of punishment", perhaps? (nt)

[NCTraveler]

31. I'm talking GE.

Democrats will turn out to vote. People who want high income earners paying more in taxes will turn out to vote. Men and women who support paid maternity leave will show up. People who support civil rights will show up. People who don't want an overt racist, bigot, mysoginost will show up to vote. People who want to improve relations with our neighbors to the south and support a pathway to citizenship will show up to vote.

I could do this all day off the top of my head.

I have no misconception that Trump isn't going to go after her aggressively. I just hold a different position than you. I think Clinton will have a better message than him, will run a better campaign, and Trumps message doesn't resonate with me just like it doesn't for most.

[The Far Left]

55. Hillary may suppress GE turnout by pivoting to the right.

If the younger voters and the Independent voters don't show up, then the GOP may also take the House, the Senate, and the Supreme Court. (So much for our constitutional rights...)

Hillary's message keeps changing. Why do you still trust her?

[DCBob]

29. This could be historic landslide win for Democrats.

[secondwind]

33. I think it will be.... :-D

[stonecutter357]

34. K&R!

[Marr]

37. She had a 40-some point lead over Sanders going into the race.

Hillary's numbers always, always erode as the race wears on.

[NCTraveler]

39. I hope you can see what you are saying.

No one thought those numbers were going to hold. And with those numbers she has been out front from the start and has won. So I guess you are making a good point. We are in a very solid position.

[Marr]

40. Yes-- her lead here is much smaller, and there are six months to go.

This race is going to be a lot tighter than Hillary's fans keep insisting. And if the FBI recommends any indictments in that email investigation, she is toast.

[NCTraveler]

41. Lester Holt

We are projecting Sanders has won Indiana but wasn't able to do anything about Clintons insurmountable lead.

This is not GD. P and I'm not debating the primary.

[Marr]

42. Lester who?

I'm talking about the general election here, and I have no idea what you're referring to.

If we're just outlining what we won't discuss, okay. I refuse to debate cargo helicopters in this thread.

[NCTraveler]

43. Emails, indictments, Sanders.

I wasn't aware people didn't know who Lester Holt is.

Have a great end to your week. All signs are pointing to the fact we are in a great position transitioning to the GE.

[Marr]

44. Six months out, yes.

For the record, that email investigation has not been a primary topic, because Sanders never used it (and rightly so). It's *going* to be a general election topic, you can count on that. Partially because the investigation may well be wrapped up by then, but mostly because the GOP will have no standards. Whether she's given a medal or indicted, it's going to be an issue.

I just looked up Lester Holt, btw. I've seen his face somewhere before, but I don't watch tv news.

[NCTraveler]

45. Trumps racism, bigotry, and misogyny will be a bigger topic.

As they should be.

Very solid starting point for us going into GE mode.

"I don't watch TV news."

I'm not big on it either but I do watch it every night. It's much better getting news from a wide variety of sources. Knowing what is on the evening news of a major broadcast channel is important in my opinion. I would never not watch to the point I'm not even familiar with the major evening news personalities.

[Marr]

46. Oh, I read the major US news outlets' coverage online.

Television just takes too long; it's filled with ads, opinion fluff, and silly banter. Besides, most of their coverage is only useful in a 'the world according to the Beltway' sort of way, which may or may not be accurate. It's worth noting in relation to other outlets' coverage, like say the BBC, but on it's own it's little more than an animated tabloid.

[NCTraveler]

47. Overall agree. I just put a bit more weight in what is going into living rooms every evening.

My car radio stays on BBC or NPR. Mostly BBC.

[Marr]

49. Yep-- same here.

[AgadorSparticus]

38. Great news! This trump nod is scaring republicans downline. They are worried about their seats.

[Katashi_itto]

50. It's not Clinton. A dead Chihuahua could run at double digits against Trump right now.

It's when people start realizing what the Dem candidate actually is when things could shift.

[bkkyosemite]

51. Because this poll is ignoring Sanders who is STILL IN THE RACE!

and no competition from Sanders. If he was considered he would have a double digit lead not Hillary.

[NCTraveler]

52. I believe he was considered if you read the poll.

My op is about Clinton v Trump, not Sanders. Not everything in this world has to revolve around him. Thanks.

[pnwmom]

56. What is Sanders's plan for getting 84% of the remaining pledged and unpledged delegates? n/t

[ismnotwasm]

54. K&R