HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » General Discussion (Forum) » Someone please reassure m...

Fri May 6, 2016, 01:42 PM

Someone please reassure me

I need for someone to calm me down with the assurance that Clinton ( if that's how it winds up ) will beat Trump handily. I never thought he stood a chance at the nomination.

99 replies, 4811 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 99 replies Author Time Post
Reply Someone please reassure me (Original post)
jhrobbins May 2016 OP
onehandle May 2016 #1
TDale313 May 2016 #2
basselope May 2016 #3
deathrind May 2016 #5
yeoman6987 May 2016 #56
Kingofalldems May 2016 #63
snooper2 May 2016 #7
basselope May 2016 #18
mac56 May 2016 #74
Fast Walker 52 May 2016 #13
basselope May 2016 #19
Fast Walker 52 May 2016 #20
basselope May 2016 #23
Fast Walker 52 May 2016 #30
basselope May 2016 #41
cwydro May 2016 #22
basselope May 2016 #24
Fast Walker 52 May 2016 #31
basselope May 2016 #42
Fast Walker 52 May 2016 #48
basselope May 2016 #55
Fast Walker 52 May 2016 #94
basselope May 2016 #95
Fast Walker 52 May 2016 #96
basselope May 2016 #97
leftofcool May 2016 #27
Fast Walker 52 May 2016 #32
basselope May 2016 #44
realmirage May 2016 #33
basselope May 2016 #45
Skittles May 2016 #73
La Lioness Priyanka May 2016 #99
Hortensis May 2016 #34
brush May 2016 #37
drray23 May 2016 #58
basselope May 2016 #59
pnwmom May 2016 #64
basselope May 2016 #67
pnwmom May 2016 #68
basselope May 2016 #69
pnwmom May 2016 #70
basselope May 2016 #71
pnwmom May 2016 #72
basselope May 2016 #78
pnwmom May 2016 #83
basselope May 2016 #85
pnwmom May 2016 #87
basselope May 2016 #90
DonCoquixote May 2016 #86
basselope May 2016 #89
DonCoquixote May 2016 #92
Tsiyu May 2016 #4
lagomorph777 May 2016 #9
Tsiyu May 2016 #15
Hortensis May 2016 #46
Tsiyu May 2016 #52
Maeve May 2016 #6
Hortensis May 2016 #47
TeamPooka May 2016 #8
JHB May 2016 #10
surrealAmerican May 2016 #11
pampango May 2016 #12
pnwmom May 2016 #66
Katashi_itto May 2016 #14
SecularMotion May 2016 #16
onehandle May 2016 #17
Hortensis May 2016 #49
grasswire May 2016 #54
mac56 May 2016 #75
mnmoderatedem May 2016 #21
DawgHouse May 2016 #25
bkkyosemite May 2016 #26
brush May 2016 #38
DesMoinesDem May 2016 #28
gollygee May 2016 #29
xloadiex May 2016 #35
jamese777 May 2016 #53
egalitegirl May 2016 #36
brush May 2016 #40
jamese777 May 2016 #43
jamese777 May 2016 #39
Hortensis May 2016 #50
grasswire May 2016 #51
Butterbean May 2016 #57
U4ikLefty May 2016 #60
Katashi_itto May 2016 #61
Dems to Win May 2016 #62
Timmy5835 May 2016 #65
Chan790 May 2016 #76
oldandhappy May 2016 #77
pnwmom May 2016 #88
elleng May 2016 #79
silvershadow May 2016 #80
BlindTiresias May 2016 #81
Feathery Scout May 2016 #82
Kilgore May 2016 #84
Corey_Baker08 May 2016 #91
ButterflyBlood May 2016 #93
La Lioness Priyanka May 2016 #98

Response to jhrobbins (Original post)

Fri May 6, 2016, 01:43 PM

1. 'Hillary Clinton Is Statistically The Most Favored Presidential Candidate In Modern History'

Donald Trump was the runaway winner in the Indiana primary, as expected. Polls, and the demographics of the state, had suggested as much. And as usual during this election, they’ve been proven right.

Less than three weeks ago, Mr Trump’s odds had fallen to 55 per cent. Now, he is as likely to be the Republican nominee as Hillary Clinton is to be the Democratic nominee, with both a 98 per cent favourite in the betting markets.

Now that he’s wrapped up the nomination, his chances of being America’s next president have shot up from 17 per cent to 29 per cent. But that still makes Hillary Clinton a 69 per cent favourite (Mr Sanders or ‘some other Republican’ both have a 1 per cent chance).

That means Ms Clinton begins this six-month race more favoured than any other candidate in modern history: more than Mr Obama ever was against John McCain in 2008 or Mitt Romney in 2012, or George Bush was against Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/trump-clinton-begins-as-the-most-lopsided-race-in-the-modern-era-a7012321.html

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to jhrobbins (Original post)

Fri May 6, 2016, 01:46 PM

2. Can't. Sorry.

I absolutely want her to win. I think she probably will. But I am by no means confident and I am not underestimating him or overestimating the American people.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to jhrobbins (Original post)

Fri May 6, 2016, 01:48 PM

3. Sorry, but Trump wins this pretty easily.

 

What people are not stopping to consider in their analysis is that in the most important swing states the GOP has spent the last 6 years shoring up their voter suppression efforts in Florida, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Ohio.

They also completely underestimate Trump's ability to say basically anything he wants and keep his core supporters, so he can move to the middle with little to no consequences.

They are also overestimating Clinton's appeal. She does not have the depth of support to drive turnout in any significant numbers, which is what you would need to overcome the voter suppression efforts in the key swing states.

Finally.. Trump is going to destroy her in the debates for one main reason. He is going to portray Clinton as an establishment politician who is easily bought and sold and he has proof, because he has the receipt. He gave the Clinton Foundation 100K in return for favors. She's can't spin her way out of that moment when he looks her in the eye and says "I bought access to you, thus, you are clearly for sale".

She doesn't win in November. Sorry.

But, the good news is that the democrats will likely keep enough in the Senate to stall anything he does.. he will seem ineffective and thin skinned when he doesn't get his way and will be easy to defeat with a decent candidate in 2020.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to basselope (Reply #3)

Fri May 6, 2016, 02:00 PM

5. Very sobering post...

And most likely right on target...unfortunately.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to deathrind (Reply #5)

Sat May 7, 2016, 02:07 PM

56. Today he is saying a lot about Hillary

 

But I hear nothing from her. Hillary must refute every statement trump says. It is critical.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to yeoman6987 (Reply #56)

Sat May 7, 2016, 05:19 PM

63. She doesn't have to refute anything.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to basselope (Reply #3)

Fri May 6, 2016, 02:03 PM

7. Would you like to make a friendly wager on that?

 

just a c-note maybe?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to snooper2 (Reply #7)

Fri May 6, 2016, 04:11 PM

18. 50K

 

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to snooper2 (Reply #7)

Sat May 7, 2016, 08:12 PM

74. What? Is this like the Super Bowl to you?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to basselope (Reply #3)

Fri May 6, 2016, 02:16 PM

13. maybe... but Trump is as close to unelectable to the presidency as anyone I've ever seen

 

He's basically a wealthier male Sarah Palin.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Fast Walker 52 (Reply #13)

Fri May 6, 2016, 04:12 PM

19. They said the same thing about Reagan in 1980.

 

There is a LONG time to go until the election and Trump is tapping into something that very few people have figured out. Remember, he wasn't supposed to get the nomination in the first place.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to basselope (Reply #19)

Sat May 7, 2016, 07:02 AM

20. Reagan was more genial, and those were different times

 

Conservatism is on the ropes, as is the GOP.

Also winning the GOP nomination is very different from winning the general.

Actually once I saw Trump win Hew Hampshire, I predicted he would win the nom. It wasn't that hard to see. Political pundits are mostly dumb.

This is not to say that he couldn't be elected-- we must be vigilant-- but it shouldn't take a brilliant campaign to beat him.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Fast Walker 52 (Reply #20)

Sat May 7, 2016, 01:02 PM

23. I think very few people understand his campaign.

 

The more the GOP "establishment" rejects him, the stronger he becomes.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to basselope (Reply #23)

Sat May 7, 2016, 01:12 PM

30. if he destroys the GOP, great

 

I don't see him winning the presidency though

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Fast Walker 52 (Reply #30)

Sat May 7, 2016, 01:39 PM

41. Its very likely he wins.. with a couple of caveats.

 

Caveat #1) IF a 3rd party candidate comes along to split the anti-establishment vote.
Caveat #2) The Senate continues to sit on its hands with the SC seat (which I don' think they will do), b/c that would be a strong wedge issue for Clinton.

Barring one of those 2 things. Trump is more likely to win than not for a few reason.

The GOP has spent the last 8 years improving their voter suppression strategy in key swing states. It takes overwhelming and dedicated voter turnout to overcome that. I don't see that turnout happening with an establishment candidate.

Trump has the ultimate play on Clinton. He can show she is a bought and paid for politician, b/c he has the receipts to prove it. That will come out in the debates and be a focus of his campaign.

Finally.. the October surprise will be the release of video of Clinton's speeches to Wall Street, which will further depress democratic base turnout.

Clinton is already making the mistake of running to the middle turning this election into establishment vs anti-establishment and its a battle the establishment can't win.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to basselope (Reply #19)

Sat May 7, 2016, 09:53 AM

22. I disagree.

Women and poc will not be voting for him.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to cwydro (Reply #22)

Sat May 7, 2016, 01:03 PM

24. Its much too blanket a statement.

 

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to basselope (Reply #24)

Sat May 7, 2016, 01:13 PM

31. it's also true-- he will lose those huge demographics by large margins

 

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Fast Walker 52 (Reply #31)

Sat May 7, 2016, 01:43 PM

42. Not exactly true...

 

He will lose PoC by large margins, but that doesn't matter, republicans ALWAYS lose PoC by large margins.

Women... Al Gore won women 54/43 against bush and we all know how that turned out.

If Trump can get 45% of women, he can win, ESPECIALLY if voter turnout is depressed, which it is likely to be.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to basselope (Reply #42)

Sat May 7, 2016, 01:54 PM

48. we will see... I'm not saying it's a sure thing he will lose

 

but I don't think it's very likely either.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Fast Walker 52 (Reply #48)

Sat May 7, 2016, 02:07 PM

55. The problem is I don't see how Clinton wins... I don't see the path.

 

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to basselope (Reply #55)

Sun May 8, 2016, 08:56 AM

94. there is a path and it isn't that complicated

 

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Fast Walker 52 (Reply #94)

Sun May 8, 2016, 12:15 PM

95. All the "paths" involve them counting on states they just aren't going to win.

 

Like Florida, Ohio and North Carolina.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to basselope (Reply #95)

Mon May 9, 2016, 07:50 AM

96. and you base that Hillary won't win those states on what?

 

I could see Hillary winning Florida, for sure.

But according to this, she could even get to 270 without winning any of those states.

http://www.270towin.com/maps/M4OY2

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Fast Walker 52 (Reply #96)

Mon May 9, 2016, 07:06 PM

97. The lay of the land...

 

There are several states (Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Wisconsin) that, having been under GOP control of the last several years, have perfected depressing the democratic vote. A democratic candidate would need OVERWHELMING turnout in these states to overcome these obstacles. Clinton simply isn't going to drive that type of turnout.

Giving her PA, NV, IA or WI is wishful thinking at best.

So many assumptions on that map that make no sense.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to basselope (Reply #3)

Sat May 7, 2016, 01:09 PM

27. I hate to burst your Trump bubble but he can't win

No one in this country can win a GE without AAs and Latino votes. It is impossible. He can win without women either and he will not have that vote. Sorry to be such a downer for you.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to leftofcool (Reply #27)

Sat May 7, 2016, 01:14 PM

32. yep... though I think you meant he can't win without women

 

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to leftofcool (Reply #27)

Sat May 7, 2016, 01:49 PM

44. History says you're wrong.

 

in 2000 bush got OBLITERATED in the women vote 54/43. He lost it in 2004 also.

Romney got LESS of the Latino vote in 2012 than McCain in 2008 but the election was much closer.


You are making the big mistake... applying the old standards to a new paradigm.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to basselope (Reply #3)

Sat May 7, 2016, 01:18 PM

33. It's a reassuring fantasy for Hillary haters

 

Unfortunately not based in reality

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to realmirage (Reply #33)

Sat May 7, 2016, 01:49 PM

45. Sadly, it is based in reality, facts and history.

 

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to realmirage (Reply #33)

Sat May 7, 2016, 08:09 PM

73. they won't vote for her, and desperately WANT her to lose

they're PATHETIC

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to realmirage (Reply #33)

Mon May 9, 2016, 07:10 PM

99. +1

 

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to basselope (Reply #3)

Sat May 7, 2016, 01:22 PM

34. Sorry, but IMO, this is what mining documents to reinforce

preconceptions instead of for information results in. How else to explain it?

Here's reality, JHRobbins:

The GOP has essentially abandoned all hope of winning the presidency. Almost all GOP leaders are publicly saying they will not support or vote for Trump, a message to their electorate.

Black money ultraconservatives, with something like $950 million readied for 2016, were not able to invest any of it in a winnable candidate for the presidency and abandoned that office to the Democrats earlier in the year, diverting all their attention to down-ticket races. They've also, I feel sure, had to abandon plans for election tampering at the presidential level (only). Things are so bad that electronic voting machine vulnerabilities simply cannot be used to throw the election to Trump. Great joke on them--as far as it goes.

This is reality, JHRobbins. Expect some nervous palpitations as the press pumps up an occasional good moment for Trump here and there, but no.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to basselope (Reply #3)

Sat May 7, 2016, 01:27 PM

37. You couldn't be any more wrong.

There is so much damaging videos of Trump hating on Latinos, women, blacks, gays, handicapped just about everybody but angry whites.

There are not enough angry whites to offset the groups who will vote blue, including some independents who are not a monolith and come in all stripes from right-leaning conservative independents to moderates to left-leaning progressive independents.

Hillary will get her share of the latter two and Trump will get his share.

I'm betting the moderates to left-leaning progressive independents in the end won't vote to allow Trump to appoint the next 3 SCOTUS justices as that would assure a huge,rightward, generational shift of the whole country (gutting of the social safety net (Social Security gone, Medicare and Medicaid gone, pensions raided, the rest of unions gone), gutting of the rest of the civil rights acts of the 60s, deregulation of banking and environmental legislation (thinf Flint, MI everywhere) — in other words, we'd all get screwed with no possibility of change for generations.

And of course the Obama coalition will not be voting for Trump — sensible progressive whites who don't want Trump appointing the next 3 SCOTUS justices, Latino Americans, African Americans, women, gays, Asian Americans, Native Americans, and sensible, left-leaning and moderate independents — collectively these demographic segments are who mostly voted for and elected President Obama twice, and will also elect the Dem nominee to the presidency — most likely Clinton.

Notice pls that they are a very diverse group, not the angry whites and/or racist whites who support Trump, and we outnumber them.

These groups will stand in line for hours to vote, just as they did in 2012 to overcome repug vote suppression crap so you can stop praying for a Trump win.

Hillary will kick his no-knowledge-of-policy-butt in the debates, just as she did those repug clowns for 11 straight hours at the last Benghazi hearings.

Trump will lose spectacularly. Even prominent repugs are deserting ship.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to basselope (Reply #3)

Sat May 7, 2016, 02:43 PM

58. Hillary will win in a landslide

If you take into account that Trump has very limited appeal, mainly angry white racist people it is hard to see how he could win. He is despised by the african american and latino community, alienated so many women that many moderate republican woman are considering voting for Hillary. He would be a disaster as a commander in chief which will make even more people vote against him.

On top of that, he will face Hillary and Obama's political machines which will guarantee a massive GOTV effort and lots of money. Trump has yet to build a coherent political structure to run a general election campaign since he can not self finance a GE run. He needs to start raising money. However he has upset the GOP leadership which means he wont get enough help from them. Many of Bush's et al donors will sit on their hands or even donate for Hillary. etc..

Furthermore, he has a metric ton of baggage that has not been exploited by the media but will be by the democrats. Anybody with a modicum of political acumen realizes he is toast. Cruz was more worrisome, Kasich might even have won. Among you list is Florida. Hillary is currently a double digit favorite there against trump. Both Hillary or Bernie will wipe the floor with Trump.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to drray23 (Reply #58)

Sat May 7, 2016, 02:48 PM

59. His numbers in those communities aren't nearly as bad as people claim.

 

And Obama's GOTV effort LOST 10 million voters from 2008 to 2012. Hillary's GOTV effort is even worse.

Hillary is currently ahead by 5 in aggregate polling in Florida.. but the polls have been wrong, tilting in the "establishment" favor in about 90% of the contests, b/c they are using old metrics of determining likely voters.

Latest example: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/in/indiana_democratic_presidential_primary-5807.html


This election isn't about D v R .. it is about establishment vs anti-establishment and THAT is why Trump is likely to win.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to basselope (Reply #3)

Sat May 7, 2016, 05:25 PM

64. Trump has just renounced his self-funding. So how is it that he won't be corrupted

by the process he said corrupts everyone? Corruption is a two-way street, and he's claiming that he bought access. I don't see how that argument helps him.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to pnwmom (Reply #64)

Sat May 7, 2016, 07:01 PM

67. Because you don't understand Trump.

 

He gets away with this because he can claim it WON'T corrupt him, whereby he can prove that Clinton was actually corrupted, b/c he has the receipts and pictures to prove it.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to basselope (Reply #67)

Sat May 7, 2016, 07:03 PM

68. He can't and he won't. A few photos with Hillary and donations he made to BOTH parties

don't prove anything.

And if he views himself as essentially bribing politicians, then he is as corrupt as anyone he's accusing.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to pnwmom (Reply #68)

Sat May 7, 2016, 07:39 PM

69. That's "Old way" thinking.

 

Its the exactly same thinking that got Trump the nomination, when it was considered impossible.

The fact that he was able to buy someone only proves that the person he bought can be bought, not that he is "corrupt".. he was just "Playing the system".

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to basselope (Reply #69)

Sat May 7, 2016, 07:40 PM

70. That way of thinking works with a portion of Rethug voters. It won't work with the much

broader spectrum of voters, especially women and people of color, who won't be bamboozled by him.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to pnwmom (Reply #70)

Sat May 7, 2016, 07:41 PM

71. Exactly the kind of thinking that got him the republican nomination.

 

No one is immune.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to basselope (Reply #71)

Sat May 7, 2016, 07:49 PM

72. 70% of women hate him. They are immune. n/t

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to pnwmom (Reply #72)

Sat May 7, 2016, 08:34 PM

78. Those numbers will change before the general.

 

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to basselope (Reply #78)

Sat May 7, 2016, 09:03 PM

83. Of course. Even more women will loath him. n/t

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to pnwmom (Reply #83)

Sat May 7, 2016, 09:05 PM

85. Sorry, but no.

 

You sound just like the GOP as they denied he had a chance.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to basselope (Reply #85)

Sat May 7, 2016, 09:10 PM

87. They know how bad his numbers are with women. That's one reason they're afraid. n/t

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to pnwmom (Reply #87)

Sat May 7, 2016, 09:54 PM

90. They're not afraid.. they are in denial.

 

They want to regain the power they THOUGHT they had over their own party.

Paul Ryan is trying a power play, but is about to learn that it is he who is going to have to kiss Trump's ring.


Ultimately, both Trump and Clinton have net negative ratings among women (Clinton less so, but still more women have an unfavorable opinion, than a favorable one).

This is not the advantage people think it is.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to basselope (Reply #3)

Sat May 7, 2016, 09:09 PM

86. and we can say hello

To Supreme Court Justice Ted Cruz

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to DonCoquixote (Reply #86)

Sat May 7, 2016, 09:51 PM

89. You really think he would go to Lyin'Ted?

 

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to basselope (Reply #89)

Sat May 7, 2016, 11:10 PM

92. no low is too low

and he knows that would be a cheap way to get the holy rollers off his back

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to jhrobbins (Original post)

Fri May 6, 2016, 01:54 PM

4. WE have many months to go

I make no prediction, but Trump is a wild card with the emphasis on wild.

Some nasty story may arise that takes away the "sexual purity" voters who are the Repuke base, and most moderates think the guy is a loon by all measures. Bernie or Hillary will definitely be the moderates' selection.

However, with election fraud and various other factors at play, who knows. But we will make it through no matter who is elected.

I say this as one who has survived living through the presidencies of Nixon and Reagan.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Tsiyu (Reply #4)

Fri May 6, 2016, 02:09 PM

9. I think the "sexual purity voters" are actually more interested in "racial purity"

They've already voted for Trump, knowing that he's a serial philanderer.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to lagomorph777 (Reply #9)

Fri May 6, 2016, 02:44 PM

15. You are probably right


when you look at it that way.

But then a lot of the "sexual purity" voters are also people of color, who have hesitations about voting for Trump for their own reasons. Not the R base by any means but enough to take away votes from Trump.



Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Tsiyu (Reply #4)

Sat May 7, 2016, 01:50 PM

46. Tsiyu, how COULD election fraud divert enough

votes to throw the election to Trump, against all the polls, anti-Trump demonstrations, and everything else that's going on? Discrepancies impossible to miss would blast it wide open.

Best that we all look to our state elections. IMO, they're in grave danger. The black money billionaires are determined to advance or at least hold the line in the U.S. and state legislatures and judgeships there.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Hortensis (Reply #46)

Sat May 7, 2016, 02:04 PM

52. A wise and thoughtful post


As for fraud, I don't know if enough votes could be diverted to throw it, but I hope you are right.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to jhrobbins (Original post)

Fri May 6, 2016, 02:02 PM

6. Try this

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/278997-election-analyst-shifts-11-states-and-congressional

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has shifted 11 states on its election scorecard toward Democrats since Donald Trump became the presumptive Republican presidential nominee.

“This has been an exceedingly unpredictable year,” the analyst said. “Although we remain convinced that Hillary Clinton is very vulnerable and would probably lose to most other Republicans, Donald Trump's historic unpopularity with wide swaths of the electorate — women, millennials, independents and Latinos — make him the initial November underdog.”

Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin were all shifted from toss-up states to leaning Democratic. The “solid Republican” states Missouri and Indiana were downgraded to “likely Republican.” New Mexico is now solidly Democratic, and North Carolina is a toss-up after leaning Republican.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Maeve (Reply #6)

Sat May 7, 2016, 01:53 PM

47. Cook's kind of forgetting the enormous vulnerabilities

of ALL the GOP hopefuls this year, starting with their rejection by their own electorate and then moving on to their many personal liabilities. (Why?)

By yesterday's standards they are all hard-right conservatives, the vast majority with a long history of supporting and continuing the giant-sucking-sound policies that are blowing up in their faces now, even the ones touted as more moderate.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to jhrobbins (Original post)

Fri May 6, 2016, 02:06 PM

8. The same racist assholes who support Trump were against Obama too but we

kicked their ass twice.
And we'll do it again this year.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to jhrobbins (Original post)

Fri May 6, 2016, 02:11 PM

10. Nope. Stay antsy and GOTV

Always err on the side of making sure we crush them like a bug.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to jhrobbins (Original post)

Fri May 6, 2016, 02:15 PM

11. George W. Bush spent eight years in the White House.

I have no faith in the American voter or electoral system since then.

Clinton might win. Trump might win. Vermin Supreme, however, won't.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to jhrobbins (Original post)

Fri May 6, 2016, 02:16 PM

12. I support Bernie so my 'official' position is that Donald will destroy Hillary. The Donald is

all-powerful and destroys all who come before him - except for Bernie, of course, who will drive him into the ground then plant a tree on top of him.

"Unofficially" I would say her chances are extremely good. The Donald has done quite well competing for votes in an essentially 'whites only' party. The world is about to change for him.

Perhaps he can adjust his racism, misogyny and xenophobia to appeal to a more diverse group. I am skeptical. There is a reason that most American do not belong to the 'whites only' party in which Donald has been competing so well. Many of them are not white. And many whites are not afraid of minorities and foreigners the way Donald's base seems to be.

Donald has laughed at the GOP 2012 post-mortem that stated that republicans cannot win a national election with a 'whites only' base of support. Donald seems to be saying, "We'll see about that. You can certainly still win the republican presidential nomination quite handily with a 'whites only' approach."

"Now I just need to keep scaring whites with the evil Mexicans, Muslims, Chinese and foreigners in general to increase the turnout of our white base. Then I need to attract enough liberals who, though they may be offended by my racism and misogyny, are attracted to my America First platform and don't like Hillary."

"And, of course, I need to run an incredibly nasty campaign. (What other kind is there? ) Nasty campaigns turn off infrequent voters. This favors republicans who always do well in low-turnout off-year elections because our white base shows up and votes."

Complacency in politics is as deadly as it is in love, war and most other aspects of life. Our chances look good but relaxing is something we should not do.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to pampango (Reply #12)

Sat May 7, 2016, 05:27 PM

66. "who will drive him into the ground then plant a tree on top of him."

Thanks for the image. Gave me a good laugh.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to jhrobbins (Original post)

Fri May 6, 2016, 02:29 PM

14. Sorry, anything can happen. Clinton might even win. So take heart in that.

 

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to jhrobbins (Original post)

Fri May 6, 2016, 02:53 PM

16. Clinton Most Admired Woman for Record 20th Time

 

PRINCETON, N.J. -- Americans again name Hillary Clinton and President Barack Obama the woman and man living anywhere in the world they admire most. Both win by wide margins over the next-closest finishers, Malala Yousafzai for women and Pope Francis and Donald Trump for men.

[center][/center]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/187922/clinton-admired-woman-record-20th-time.aspx

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to SecularMotion (Reply #16)

Fri May 6, 2016, 03:47 PM

17. Yep. nt

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to SecularMotion (Reply #16)

Sat May 7, 2016, 01:54 PM

49. Good addition to the conversation.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to SecularMotion (Reply #16)

Sat May 7, 2016, 02:06 PM

54. and yet she has the highest untrustworthy numbers..

...and the highest unfavorables.

That's a fact.

AND....Millennials don't vote for "admired woman"

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to SecularMotion (Reply #16)

Sat May 7, 2016, 08:26 PM

75. I have seen this tossed out countless times in various threads

and I don't understand its relevance.

As has already been posted, it's been shown in several polls that her "dislike" percentages are very high. What makes those polls invalid, and THIS one golden?

Plus, as has been mentioned, millenials don't vote in the "most admired man/woman" contest.

It's a non argument as far as I can tell.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to jhrobbins (Original post)

Sat May 7, 2016, 09:48 AM

21. ace in the whole

if the donald's refusal to release his tax returns, which every other candidate on both sides has done

An enormous amount of mileage can be gleaned from this. Either he still refuses, and looks to be hiding the fact that he pays a far less rate then the rest of us, or reluctantly concedes, and we see how much less he pays that the rest of us.

Either way a political winner.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to jhrobbins (Original post)

Sat May 7, 2016, 01:04 PM

25. She's got this!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to jhrobbins (Original post)

Sat May 7, 2016, 01:07 PM

26. Bernie is the only one that has this. Even Trump said he rather go up agains Hillary

than Bernie because he would win hands down. Bernie Sanders for President!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to bkkyosemite (Reply #26)

Sat May 7, 2016, 01:30 PM

38. Time to face the music. Bernie's out of it.

It's Clinton v Trump now and he will lose spectacularly.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to jhrobbins (Original post)

Sat May 7, 2016, 01:11 PM

28. Trump will win. No question about it.

 

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to jhrobbins (Original post)

Sat May 7, 2016, 01:12 PM

29. Either Hillary or Bernie could beat trump with no issue

A great number of people are going to be unwilling to vote for him.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to jhrobbins (Original post)

Sat May 7, 2016, 01:24 PM

35. All the disenfranchised Independent voters

who were blocked from the primaries along with the droves of people who are already leaving the Dem party will be voting in the GE. My bet is they won't be voting for Clinton.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to xloadiex (Reply #35)

Sat May 7, 2016, 02:05 PM

53. Independents went For Romney...

in 2012 Romney got 50% of the Independent vote and Obama got 45% with 5% going for other candidates. President Obama still won by 5 million votes.
For 2016 Latino voter registration in particular is way up and the overwhelming majority are registering as Democrats.
Gallup Poll:
"In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat or an Independent?"
Asked of Independents: "Do you lean more toward the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?"
April 6-10, 2016
Republicans: 25%
Independents: 44%
Democrats: 31%
Republicans + Independents who lean Republcan: 41%
Democrats + Independents who lean Democratic: 49%

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to jhrobbins (Original post)

Sat May 7, 2016, 01:27 PM

36. Based on voter turnout so far

 

The turnout for Republicans is higher than the turnout for Democrats and so I think Trump wins. This would not have happened if Bernie's supporters and independents had been allowed to vote everywhere. If Bernie Sanders is the nominee, he wins. If Hillary is the nominee, Trump wins.

But Hillary folks can take heart. What difference does it make if it is Hillary or Jeb Bush or Donald Trump? They are all right wing. So you get your pick at least by proxy. It is the Bernie supporters who have to feel disappointed.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to egalitegirl (Reply #36)

Sat May 7, 2016, 01:37 PM

40. Check your figures again. Hillary has more votes than Sanders or Trump

And Trump has been running in the all-white repug party.

Things are about to change for him in the general election where there is such a thing as diversity and where it has been shown in 2012 and 2008 that there are not enough angry/racist whites to elect a president by themselves anymore.

The Obama coalition, ever heard of them, will not be voting for Trump — sensible progressive whites who don't want Trump appointing the next 3 SCOTUS justices, Latino Americans, African Americans, women, gays, Asian Americans, Native Americans, and sensible, left-leaning and moderate independents who also don't want Trump appointing the next 3 SCOTUS justices — collectively these demographic segments are who mostly voted for and elected President Obama twice, and will also elect the Dem nominee to the presidency — most likely Clinton.

We, the above, outnumber the angry/racist white Trump supporters.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to egalitegirl (Reply #36)

Sat May 7, 2016, 01:45 PM

43. Clinton leads Trump in popular votes

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to jhrobbins (Original post)

Sat May 7, 2016, 01:32 PM

39. Latest CNN/ORC Poll

CNN/ORC Poll. April 28-May 1, 2016. N=890 registered voters nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.5.

"If Hillary Clinton was the Democratic Party's candidate and Donald Trump was the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for?" If neither, who do you lean more toward? Options rotated
Hillary Clinton (D): 54%
Donald Trump (R): 41%
Other: 1%
Neither: 4%
Unsure: --
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh16gen.htm

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to jamese777 (Reply #39)

Sat May 7, 2016, 01:57 PM

50. I don't believe that is representative of how

people will actually vote in November. Half of Democrats would not vote for Hillary even with no other option and would throw the election to Trump as the alternative? Ridiculous.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to jhrobbins (Original post)

Sat May 7, 2016, 02:02 PM

51. NO CAN DO

Polls show Bernie beating Trump significantly better than HRC.

And-----no polling has been done since the MSM has tip toed into the scandal.

In a couple of weeks, I expect HRC's numbers to drop significantly.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink



Response to jhrobbins (Original post)

Sat May 7, 2016, 02:52 PM

60. Arnold won California...twice!!!

Let THAT sink in for a moment.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to jhrobbins (Original post)

Sat May 7, 2016, 03:04 PM

61. It will boil down to who can cheat best

 

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to jhrobbins (Original post)

Sat May 7, 2016, 04:53 PM

62. A very confusing race to try to predict.

 

I have no clue who will get the most votes. It all depends on who turns up to vote and who stays home.

It will be an ugly, personal campaign. The uglier it is, the more that turnout is depressed, as some people just turn off the whole damn thing. Low turnout hurts Democrats.

Some people will crawl through glass to vote against Hillary. Some people will crawl through glass to vote against Trump. Some people will look at the pictures of Trump/Clinton smiling at his wedding and conclude they won't vote for either member of 'the club.'

Schwarzenegger won the governorship in California when no other Republican could get elected statewide. Don't underestimate the power of celebrity.

Trump rails against bad trade deals, while Democrats have likely chosen as their nominee the wife of the guy who signed NAFTA. People in economic despair have nothing but bad choices available. So how will they vote, if at all?

One thing you might find reassuring, though I don't like it one bit: the people who rig the voting machines will likely do so in favor of Clinton, not Trump. She's the one in the race most likely to feed the military industrial complex, funnel lots of money to Wall Street, and keep the gravy train rolling along as usual for the 1%.

So, it's a confusing toss-up of crazy factors. Either could get the most votes, but I guess I'll go with Clinton being declared the winner. The Establishment is firmly on her side, and she'll get all the breaks they can give her, including election fraud.



Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to jhrobbins (Original post)

Sat May 7, 2016, 05:27 PM

65. Here's ALL the reassurance you need....

To win the general election Trump needs at least 48% of the Latino vote, think he can get that?????

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to jhrobbins (Original post)

Sat May 7, 2016, 08:32 PM

76. Hillary will beat Trump handily.

 

Don't take my word for it. Ask Charlie Cook, he gets paid a lot of money to predict outcomes of elections for the benefit of his clients, some of whom are among the biggest corporations in America.

http://cookpolitical.com/presidential/charts/scorecard

He's projecting that more than 304 EC votes lie in states that lean, likely or are solidly Democratic.
Another 44 lie in toss-up states, several of which also probably favor Hillary.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to jhrobbins (Original post)

Sat May 7, 2016, 08:32 PM

77. clinton is already recruiting republicans

Her comments about unity were misunderstood by me. For her, unity is uniting the repubs and the dems!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to oldandhappy (Reply #77)

Sat May 7, 2016, 09:11 PM

88. Good. She should get everyone who wants a sane President to vote for her.

Even if they won't like all her policies, it's better than having President Nuclear Weapons and President "I like to gamble with debt" at the helm.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to jhrobbins (Original post)

Sat May 7, 2016, 08:40 PM

79. Sorry, can't.

Dems need an an anti-establishment candidate to win.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to jhrobbins (Original post)

Sat May 7, 2016, 08:41 PM

80. I wish I could, but polling indicates it might be tough. This is a change election

 

and she represents the status quo. I'm guessing people will overlook Trump's many flaws and vote for the outsider. Just a guess, though.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to jhrobbins (Original post)

Sat May 7, 2016, 08:43 PM

81. It is difficult to speak in certainties.

But I do think that it is not a guaranteed thing for the Democratic nominee. This article makes some fairly decent, if bleak, points regarding the cultural and ideological phenomenon that are surrounding Trump.

https://zeroanthropology.net/2016/05/04/why-donald-j-trump-will-be-the-next-president-of-the-united-states/

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to jhrobbins (Original post)

Sat May 7, 2016, 08:43 PM

82. Well...



Right now, Trump isn't even getting his own party to vote for him. Sure, he has the right-wing zealots and racists. That seems to be good for about 15 million votes, as we are seeing in the Primary.

But he needs another 50-55 million votes to win the Presidency. And he gets those numbers from moderate Repubs, Independents, first-time voters (already counted in the Primary numbers BTW) and cross-over Dems.

And right now he can't get the Republican Party leaders to support him, to get the full amount of 10's of millions of moderate Republican votes. Both living ex-Republican Presidents have publicly shunned him. As has 2012 nominee Romney. The highest elected Republican, Paul Ryan, refuses to endorse Trump.

Trump's VP list is filled with has-beens. All promising politicians have publicly disavowed interest.

So....it's not a shoo-in for the Dem candidate.

But, Trump is running on a non-Republican platform, under the Republican banner....,and that is causing enormous disruption within the party.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to jhrobbins (Original post)

Sat May 7, 2016, 09:03 PM

84. Never ever underestimate Trump

You do at your own peril! !

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to jhrobbins (Original post)

Sat May 7, 2016, 10:52 PM

91. I've Heard So Many Republican Voters Say They Will Not Vote For Trump!

Anybody But Trump

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to jhrobbins (Original post)

Sun May 8, 2016, 07:37 AM

93. It's simple math and demographics

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/

Try to get realistic numbers that result in a Trump victory. It ain't easy.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to jhrobbins (Original post)

Mon May 9, 2016, 07:09 PM

98. she will but even if she doesn't, Trump will be better for most people than a Cruz presidency would

 

1. he's less conservative
2. he doesn't care about social issues
3. he's not religious
4. he has less power in his party than other leaders of the party have traditionally had, which means people won't risk their seats to vote for something he wants and is unpopular

Trump is awful, but he is sig less awful than having a President Cruz or even a President Rubio would be.

So take comfort in that.

Plus half of DU agree with him about NAFTA and TPP so there is that as well.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread