Poll shows Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump neck and neck in Florida

[TexasTowelie]

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are running neck and neck in Florida, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll that finds Clinton with 43 percent support and Trump with 42 percent.

It looks like a Women are from venus, men are from Mars election: She leads Trump by 13 points among women, and he leads Clinton by 13 points among men.

Republicans’ weakness among minority voters is well known. But the reason this race is so close overall is Clinton’s historic weakness among white men. In Florida, she is getting just 25 percent from white men,” Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.

Quinnipiac's April 27 through May 8 telephone poll also surveyed likely voters in Pennsylvania and Ohio, finding Clintin leading 43 to 42 percent in Pennsylvania, and Trump leading Ohio 43 percent to 39 percent. The margin of error in each poll was plus or minus 3 percent.

Read more: http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/poll-shows-hillary-clinton-and-donald-trump-neck-and-necck-in-florida/2276667

[Warren Stupidity]

1. So Clinton is not beating TRUMPF! in either Ohio or Florida.

Those are two critical swing states.

We are picking the candidate who could actually lose to this dangerous idiot.

[UtahJosh]

2. Between Romney's 2012 results and these

I'm starting to really become ashamed of being a white man!

[pampango]

6. If Trump wins, we will owe the country and the world an apology.

Donald could not have done it without us as his base that he could rely on, then trick smaller numbers in other groups to put him over the top.

[apcalc]

3. Quinnipiac has been off this year...will wait for others...

[Vogon_Glory]

4. I suspect that this is going to be a weird year

I suspect that this is going to be a weird year. The Democrats are going to win in states where they'd lost for the last 20 years or so, but some of the states Team Donkey carries might flip the other way.

[pnwmom]

5. # Respondents by party: 370, GOP; 320, IND; and 306 DEM. So no wonder. nt

[cali]

9. Do we know.the rationale? Perhaps that reflects Florida registration?

[pnwmom]

10. Sometimes random samples just are off. It's difficult to know how accurate party registration

numbers are anyway, because they change over time, and with different elections -- as we have seen in Florida in the past.

And the results are very different from a poll about a week ago.

So who knows, but this looks odd to me.

ON EDIT:

I just found registration #'s from 2014.

GOP, less than 4.2 million
DEM, more than 4.6 million
no party, less than 2.8 million

http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2015/jul/08/chuck-todd/florida-no-party-voters-are-growing-question-why/

[HooptieWagon]

27. Those aren't correct.

NPA/third party number over 40%. It's been steadily growing. Dems slightly outnumber Rs, but both well under 30%.

[pnwmom]

32. Party registration varies by State. So show me the "correct" Florida figures if you dispute those.

Otherwise you're just blowing the usual hot air.

[RockaFowler]

13. There are more Dems than Repubs here n Florida

That is a weird sample

[pnwmom]

14. Yes -- I just found some party registration numbers from 2014.

GOP, less than 4.2 million
DEM, more than 4.6 million
no party, less than 2.8 million

http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2015/jul/08/chuck-todd/florida-no-party-voters-are-growing-question-why/

[0rganism]

23. typically responses get a weighting factor to correct demographic anomalies

if there are 30% Republicans in the area of the survey, and they somehow end up with a 40% republican sample, the R responses will be multiplied by 3/4 to normalize them to the population.

i strongly doubt the pollster is reporting raw, unadjusted numbers.

what i think is happening is HRC is actually underperforming at this point in the campaign; she will probably be able to turn that around post-convention if she can avoid saying stupid shit about various American industries.

that said, Florida has given us some really batshit election results over the last 16 years, and HRC has to campaign like Gov. Voldemort is going to have his thumb on the scale.

[pnwmom]

24. They didn't weight for party. They did weight for gender, age, etc.

When they did that, the percents were almost identical for Dems, R's, and Indies.

So that still didn't give an accurate picture, because voter registration numbers show there are a substantially higher number of Dems than Rs, and the no-party people are far behind both.

So this study over sampled for R's and Indies.

https://www.qu.edu/images/polling/ps/sfl05102016_demos_Sw4b42d.pdf

This survey uses statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey participation and random variation in samples. The overall adult sample is weighted to recent Census or American Community Survey data using a sample balancing procedure to match the demographic makeup of the population by county, gender, age, education and race. Margins of sampling error for this survey are not adjusted for design effect.

AFTER WEIGHTING, the percents were 32% Dem, 32% Rep, and 31% indie.

Which does not reflect the registered voters as of 2014:

REP, less than 4.2 million
DEM, more than 4.6 million
no party, less than 2.8 million

http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2015/jul/08/chuck-todd/florida-no-party-voters-are-growing-question-why/

[0rganism]

25. either they're matching a particular turnout model or it's a crap poll

a turnout model where both R and D turnouts are depressed, and I is through the roof...

if that turnout model is at all plausible, we are in deep dark shit. all hail president Trump.

or the folks in charge of that poll fucked up royally.

[pnwmom]

29. Actually ,it's not unusual to NOT be matching a turnout model.

The justification for only weighting things like gender, age, etc. is that they know what proportions exist in the population, whereas party affiliation can change over time in unpredictable ways.

So they only weighted for those other groups, and that had the effect of giving a new weight to party memberships. For example, they had too many men in their first sample, so when they weighted for gender, that reduced the weight they had been giving to GOP.

But not enough. And Indie was still too high. So they ended up with numbers that seem too far off from reported party affiliation.

But remember -- it all started with having too many men (for example). That was just a fluke of the random sample -- it won't be true of the General election. That's why it's better to have multiple polls, as at 538 or RCP.

[HooptieWagon]

28. Repeating it doesn't make it true.

No Party Affiliation is only part of the Indy vote, which is over 40%.

[pnwmom]

30. Not in Florida it isn't. I linked to the affiliations that Florida reports. Where is your link

showing that Florida has 40% Indy? Because Florida reports it having 2.8 million, as opposed to 4.6 for the Dems and 4.2 for GOP.

[Doctor Jack]

7. Same results that we saw in May 2008 and 2012 from these states

Romney was ahead in all 3 in polls in 2012 and McCain was ahead in Florida and Ohio in May 2008. And Sanders has similar results in these polls as well. This doesn't really fit with the overall shape of the race showing Sanders and Clinton up by double digits nationally and traditionally republican states like Georgia and Arizonia also being ties. I guess we will have to see how things play out in the next month or so.

[B Calm]

8. Ohio poll is the one to watch. No Republican has ever won without carrying

Ohio and Trump is leading there against Hillary, but at the same time is losing against Bernie.

[pnwmom]

11. The Rethug super pacs have been running attack ads against Hillary since Jan, but not

against Bernie. So his current status doesn't say much for how he'd do once they got started on him.

Do you think ads calling him a socialist and a commie are going to increase his appeal among Cubans in Florida, for example?

[B Calm]

16. Thanks to Hillary supporters attacking Bernie for being a commie socialist it doesn't

carry much weight anymore.

[pnwmom]

17. Hillary has run no commie-ads against Bernie. But the Rethugs would. n/t

[B Calm]

19. What part of the word SUPPORTERS flew over your head?

[cali]

12. Neck and neck in Pennsylvania is startling.

[apnu]

20. Its very early. Lets see the trend lines in late summer.

Before being startled. Bernie is still in the race and the Left hasn't accepted Hillary right now. Bernie is losing and progressives are processing that right now. That's got to shake out before any poll shows a hint of reality.

[napkinz]

22. all this talk of Trump winning the Rust Belt has me SCARED!

[Katashi_itto]

15. Too funny!

Munches popcorn.

[apnu]

18. Not surprising. Florida has been a swing state for years.

The make up of the state is in flux. All the northern retirees, growing Latino population, and deep south crackers and other sundry southern conservatives... the place is a mess.

[napkinz]

21. I wish it were November ... I don't know if I can stand six months of worrying and waiting for

the outcome

[Proud Public Servant]

26. Poll shows Dukakis up by 17 points!

And that was closer to the '88 election than this poll is to November 8. Y'all really need to chill with teh polling this far out; it tells us nothing.

[runaway hero]

31. Not shocked

Hillary has to step this up. Trump has power in the midwest and south, like it or not.