Donald Trump just vaulted past Hillary Clinton in a major national poll for the first time

[applegrove]

Donald Trump just vaulted past Hillary Clinton in a major national poll for the first time

by Allen Smith at Business Insider

http://www.businessinsider.com/poll-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-fox-news-2016-5

"SNIP..............



Donald Trump overtook Hillary Clinton in a Fox News poll released on Wednesday evening.

The Manhattan billionaire held a 45% to 42% edge over the former secretary of state in the new survey measuring their expected general-election matchup.

The result represented a sharp shift from April, when Trump trailed Clinton by seven points. In March, he trailed by 11.

Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, held a large 55% to 31% lead over Clinton, the Democratic frontrunner, among white voters.



...............SNIP"

[Jackie Wilson Said]

1. Of course. With the endless crap going on with the BoB stuff and whatnot, you can expect

this to get way worse.

I said it the other day, if BoB dont vote for Hillary, it is a done deal

[applegrove]

4. What is the "BoB stuff"?

[runaway hero]

5. berniebros.

[Jackie Wilson Said]

6. Bernie or Bust

[applegrove]

9. Thanks.

[derpderpderp]

8. Relax. It's a foxnews poll. What do you expect?

[trueblue2007]

39. more lies. KNOCK IT OFF. LIES, LIES and LIES. What do you expect from Gop's

Repub poll.

[ChisolmTrailDem]

30. And there it is. A Hillary loss will be blamed on Bernie supporters and not the fact she's a...

...terrible candidate. She was a terrible candidate against Pres. Obama and she's a terrible candidate still.

But wouldn't you know the ONLY credit Bernie or his supporters get is their candidates bad showing? They couldn't take responsibility for their crappy candidate before and they won't do it now.

[Scootaloo]

32. I've opined on it as well

To pare a huge post down to a core concept... Clinton needs to win over Bernie supporters. Let me be blunt. If you tell people to fuck off, they will fuck off. And "fuck off" has been the overwhelming message from the Clinton campaign and all of her support since the start of this campaign.

[applegrove]

2. Other polls differ.

And "The all-but-certain Democratic nominee still holds a 5.2% lead over Trump in the RealClearPolitics average of several polls, which did not include the Fox poll."

http://www.businessinsider.com/poll-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-fox-news-2016-5

[runaway hero]

13. Average shrunk to 4 because of this poll.

[AngryAmish]

3. As long as we have the superdelegates Trump will never win.

[applegrove]

7. sarcasm?

[panader0]

25. Thread win

[Scootaloo]

34. Motion seconded

[Jester Messiah]

33. Heh. Burn. n/t

[MoonRiver]

10. Fox?

[The_Casual_Observer]

11. Fox is in full tilt trump mode now. Is it any surprise?

[trof]

23. The Donald and Megyn have made up.

[runaway hero]

12. Step it up Hillary

Close the deal and lets get it on.


Fox News or not this is the conversation at the water cooler tomorrow.

[Tarheel_Dem]

14. NBC First Read: 2012: Romney leads in national poll; Obama up in Ohio

Latest polls: Romney leads in another national poll: AP-GFK 47-45% and the gender gap is gone, as Pew first showed. It was 16 points, now it’s a 47-47% tie. States: OH: Time: Obama 49-44%

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/25/14694455-2012-romney-leads-in-national-poll-obama-up-in-ohio?lite

[runaway hero]

17. I expect her to beat Donny

And she has some problems right now, clean it up and let's get this going.

[Tarheel_Dem]

20. The same coalition that propelled Obama to victory TWICE, will be there again. Obama lost some....

"disillusioned" white voters in 2012, while at the same time, AA & Hispanic participation increased. Hillary will lose a few of those, but she'll over-perform with the rest.

[runaway hero]

22. Let's hope so.

The balkanized electorate is really sad to me. As a human being.

[Angel Martin]

15. Here is all the Fox poll data

Obama approval 48% is consistent with other recent polls
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/05/18/fox-news-poll-2016-national-release-may-18/

The questions that really jumped out at me were #33 and #34. Do you think ... is honest and trustworthy ?

Having lower scores on honesty and trust than Donald Trump is actually an achievement in and of itself.

I didn't think that was possible.


Dump her she is a loser.

If the DOJ does indict her it would put her out of our misery.

[applegrove]

16. Clinton has gone down in honestry and trustworthyness because she is a foil to the saint Bernie. And

I do mean I thought Bernie was a saint. Trump comes off as authentic because he used his episodic memory to make his speeches and tweets. That is your memory of events and you are digging into the original information of things when you use it. Hillary has thought her policies through and is using her sequentional and working memory to relate her positions on issues. She has actually done some thinking. Which is why it seems less authentic. It isn't off the cuff. But with Trump cowtowing to the bigwigs in the GOP he is going to have to try to use something other than his episodic memory to remember their policy bullshit so will be less authentic.

[runaway hero]

18. Great analysis

Ted Cruz suffer from the same problem: Giving long answer when people want soundbites.

[applegrove]

26. Trumps first connection is taking place in his own brain as he adds together people, place, time, to

come up with a message. It makes him more agile too as he is dealing with little bits of information and different baskets of assumptions each time his 'drills' into his episodic memory to solve a question his audience has. Hillary is consistent. Less agile.

[joeybee12]

19. People say she doesn't have a message, but she can't really formulate

a message as long as the man I loathe stays in the race...the nature is it has to be something she repeats over and over...can't do that still dealing with his lies.

[runaway hero]

21. Lol how can you hate Bernie

Annoying yes, but the message is important. People are tired of the same crap. That's really the basis for trump and sanders. Honestly had Obama not won in 2008, it would be 15 straight years of Bush-Clinton. Do you believe in rule by family? I'm not a fan of Bernie as of late but I get why these people are mad.

[joeybee12]

29. I don't get it...it's irrational...

I always liked him, but lie after lie, especially by his manager Jeff Weasel and the sanctimonious crap and conspiracy theories by his supporters make me want to vomit.

Yeah, it was awful when the Roosevelt family ruled...broadbrush about family rule is ridiculous...depends on the family...Bush is garbage, Clintons are both very smart people who are politicians and know which way the wind is blowing...she'll support most of what Bernie wants...after all, they voted 93% of the time on the same side while in Congress. She's someone the left can work with if they saw past their hate.

[panader0]

27. The man you loathe? Tom Brady?

[Angel Martin]

28. Her honesty/trust numbers are bad

and they are getting worse

Trump's are still bad, but they are getting better.

When Trump started last year, he was polling terrible even with Repubs. But he was able to move those numbers up a lot (although still low compared to normal nominees)

Now he is doing the same thing with a General Election audience.

The Democrats need to get this straightened out and fast. The whole party is in danger of being on the wrong side of change vs more of the same in a "change" year.

if things keep going the way they are going this could end up being 1980, 1994 and 2010 all rolled into one.

[The_Casual_Observer]

24. A poll of fox news watchers?

[BlueNoMatterWho]

31. Poll Rating

It seems this poll is well rated by FiveThirtyEight. I had just assumed it was a joke like the whole network is. F them.

[pnwmom]

36. He "vaulted" to a statistical TIE among a sample of people who were evenly divided

between GOP (41%) and Dems (40%)

And this is surprising how?

But that's not a good sample of the real population, where more people identify as Independent than either of the two major parties, and there are more Dems than Rethugs.

[applegrove]

37. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

[pnwmom]

38. I'm also wondering how many minority voters were in the sample.

I read through the entire poll. Maybe I just missed it. I'd be interested to know how many Black and Hispanic voters were in the sample, if anyone can find this.

[spanone]

40. democrats are still in the primary...trump ain't

apples to oranges

[karynnj]

41. What is very weird is that when libertarian Gary Johnson is added, he takes more from HRC than Trump

http://pollingreport.com/wh16gen.htm

I don't get this at all - unless it is that some people against Trump picking HRC prefer a libertarian when added.