Donald Trump’s Poll Bounce Is Already Beginning To Recede

[BainsBane]

Like 2008, poll numbers are reflecting a bounce for the candidate whose primary fight is over. John McCain was ahead of Barack Obama eight years ago because he was the only GOP candidate standing while Obama was mired in a heated primary contest.

After the Democrats unified, which they will do again this year, Obama easily beat McCain by seven points.

Now, after a week of the numbers inching slightly toward Trump, it appears the spray-tanned billionaire’s bounce is beginning to taper off – just like McCain’s did in ’08.

The same Rasmussen poll that had Trump beating Clinton by five points last week now shows Clinton ahead by one – a six-point swing toward the Democrat. Another survey today from Reuters/Ipsos has the former Secretary of State ahead by five.

Another interesting poll released this morning showed Trump losing to Clinton by seven points among middle-income Rust Belt voters – a demographic he must win if he has any shot of becoming president.

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/05/26/donald-trumps-poll-bounce-beginning-recede.html

[leftynyc]

1. This is why

the dozen posts whining about the rasmussen poll were so amusing. One, rasmussen all of a sudden being touted by supposed liberals was hypocrisy at its finest. Two, these bounces happen all the time and any general election poll done now is ridiculous.

[BainsBane]

2. The giddiness about Trump

is unseemly to say the least.

[leftynyc]

3. Notice how little attention

this thread is getting. You're not playing the game that Bernie supporters want you to play. They would rather post dozens of threads of how Hillary is going to lose and the polls prove it. Your post shreds that nonsense nicely.

[BainsBane]

6. Oh, I noticed

and it says a lot that some prefer Trump poll numbers higher.

[wryter2000]

9. Remarkable, isn't it? eom

eom

[Stonepounder]

16. I am so freaking sick of this internecine crap between

the Hillary camp and the Bernie camp. We are supposed to be Democrats. We can support Bernie or we can support Hillary. Neither decision makes us bad people. Personally I would much prefer Bernie and will continue to support him until we have a nominee. Then I will support the nominee, whoever that might be. I'm still hoping that Bernie can pull it off. But if not, I will support and vote for Hillary.

I am just really tired of the nastiness that I have been witnessing here on DU. I really, really, really wish that folks would talk about why they like their candidate rather than ranting about how those who support the 'other' candidate are horrible idiots. How those who support the candidate who isn't 'your' candidate 'post crap', 'are stupid', 'need to grow up', 'are trolls', 'live in a fantasy world', and blah blah blah.

Support your candidate with reasons why you like them. Support your candidate by voting for them, volunteering for them, for phone banking for them. But please, be respectful of those who prefer someone else. That goes for supporters of both! If polls show that Hillary is now leading Trump and you are a Hillary supporter be enthused by the poll instead of pivoting to use the poll to bash Bernie. Sheesch.

In the immortal words of Rodney King, "Can't we all just get along"? Can't we all just work to defeat Donald Trump? Isn't Trump the real issue?

OK, done with rant.

[leftynyc]

24. Good rant

And I agree. I've been very consciously avoiding nastiness in GD-P (unless thoroughly provoked) because I also have claimed from the beginning that I will vote for whoever has the D behind their name - that was even before the cons nominated the human slug donnie. I'm avoiding the threads that get started by those I consider shit stirrers. I'm convinced half of them (maybe more) aren't Democrats anyway.

[beardown]

25. Not a rant. Keep your eye on the goal.

I keep seeing fairly benign subjects or in this case good news per a Trump dump get turned into yet another poorly thought out attempt to attack other Democratic candidates and voters who are most likely going to be needed to defeat the 21st century's Mussolini.

It's tragically ironic that many of those who claim Sander's should quit the race because he might be hurting the Democratic party's odds to win the 2016 presidency cannot refrain from continually attacking other Democractic voters which in all likelihood make these other supporters less likely to vote for the Democractic presidential candidate.

Not that Hillery supporters are the only ones doing it, but in this specific case the Hillery supporters were the ones showing the lack of focus and restraint.

Per the poll, Trump and polls are almost meaningless as his support and appeal are outside of the normal ranges and we have entered a new era with a candidate so unique that no past models will be able to accurately predict what will happen, barring a complete epiphany hitting millions of Trump supporters at once. Like Trump himself said, he thinks he could shoot someone on stage and not lose any support.

If you truly believe that you candidate has already won, then all of your actions and postings should focus on uniting the party and winning the presidency and not trying to score meaningless internet points by continuing attacks against other democractic voters.

[ProfessorGAC]

26. Boy Oh Boy, Did You Ever Nail It!

You're sick of it and so am i. I'd rather see more bold and drastic proposals especially on the economic side, but in this case i don't even see the GE as a lesser of two evils. It's a horrendous choice vs. a good, but not perfect choice. A rather dramatic separation, even if the dem candidate isn't perfect.

[LiberalLovinLug]

37. Its all very well to want that

But please lets be real here,

I have yet to see a Hillary supporter say what is the big payout out of having Hillary as President. Why is her platform better than her rivals? We have seen a lot of Bernie supporters praising his progressive agenda, as I have done.

I think the Bernie camp is sick of being told we live in a fantasy world simply for supporting our candidates idea that as the richest nation on earth, we should be able to afford at the very least what other major democracies have for their citizens.

I have yet to read a Hillary supporter detail how their candidate's platform will be better for the country than what Bernie has proposed.

- How is a $12 minimum wage better than a $15 wage? Why can't the economy take it?
- How is a vow to protect Wall Street from having to "break up the banks" a good thing in the long run?
- Why do you think its important for America to continue sabre rattling and being hawkish?
- why should possessing pot continue to be criminalized?
- Why is universal healthcare an impossibility in the wealthiest nation?

Maybe there are good simple answers to these questions we haven't heard but I'd like to hear them.

But day after day, all Hillary supporters seem to have is lashing out at us Bernie supporters out of spite that he dared to cause trouble for their chosen one.

[Amimnoch]

20. It doesn't fit the only remaining meme and hope some have left.

Really funny how a year ago the polls were all "bought and paid for", now they're practically gospel.. Well when they fit a certain narrative that is.

[NutmegYankee]

22. It isn't giddiness - it's shear terror

Look at someone like me - I'm a card carrying ACLU member type of liberal. In fascist regimes, people like me get one-way marched to ditches.

[Tal Vez]

35. Rasmussen

I remember Rasmussen predicting a landslide in favor of Romney. He made that prediction a couple of days before the election. I remember poor Karl Rove waiting for Ohio to change its mind on election night. What a joke! How can they still be in business?

[yellowcanine]

4. General election polls should not be taken seriously until 2 weeks after BOTH conventions.

Seriously it cannot be emphasized enough. I learned this the hard way in 1988 when Dukakis was up on G.H. W. Bush by double digits (17 points) on Memorial Day but then the Lee Atwater attacks started and by late August the election was over except for the actual voting.

[BainsBane]

8. That would be nice, wouldn't it

but they've been polling the GE for months already. They aren't going to stop now.

[yellowcanine]

12. Pollsters will poll. It is what they do. We don't have to follow the polls like sheep though.

Just sayin.'

[Amimnoch]

21. Months? Heck there were arguments about the GE polls almost a year ago.

[LiberalFighter]

31. Exactly right.

Campaigns are not going to go really negative until it is closer to the election. They no negatives will have less impact as time goes on.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Trump is at his apex now. Clinton is at her nadir.

Last edited Fri May 27, 2016, 10:15 AM - Edit history (2)

And Clinton is polling slightly ahead. That augurs well for the general election.

[BainsBane]

11. I hope so

but he should not be taken lightly. He's been underestimated at every turn. We are going to have to work hard to beat him.

[Amimnoch]

23. I don't think so.

As has been for a long time now, the vast majority of states (including my own) really aren't going to matter in the GE. Texas.. Will be a Trump state. California will be a Hillary state, and most states are all but certainly known how they will shift in the GE. The swing states, this cycle as in all cycles for decades now will be the ones determining who the next Potus will be.

Ohio is once again at the apex of the critical swing states. The only state that no president has been elected without this states electoral votes since JFK. If Kasich had won the R's primary, we'd be in real trouble here, but Trump? Not so much. Hillary won Ohio during our primary, Ohio is one of the states Trump lost in. I don't see Trump having much of a chance at all of taking Ohio.

Florida will be the real battleground. I predict that Hillary will sweep it by more than enough to prevent it from being another round of 2000 election year madness. Trump and Clinton each one their primary in Florida and each ended with around a million votes. This is the state of primary concern to me.

Pennsylvania will be another critical swinger. Hillary and Trump were the primary winners here as well. Although in voter turn out during the Primaries Hillary took more than 100,000 votes more than trump did numbers wise. I'd be surprised if Trump pulls Pennsylvania.

Virginia is widely considered a swing state as well, but I'm counting that one as a Trump state.

By my own 270 to win, as long as clinton gets both Pennsylvania, and Ohio like I think she will Florida won't be that huge of a deal swing state wise (but still should be a primary campaign target for assurance. For Florida to be the decision maker again, Trump would have to win several of the smaller swing states that are more likely going to be Democrat.

I don't think we'll have to work exceptionally hard to beat him, we just need to make sure elections in those states have good electioneer coverage, and support polling station monitoring, and not have any big gaffe's to fuel them.

[Gamecock Lefty]

7. Hey, DSB!

I like to think I’m a fairly smart guy, but I had to look up the word, nadir!

What pisses me off about Trump’s supposed bounce is that the news media won’t shut up about him. It’s like the media has become the Trump News Network.

Once Hillary clinches our nomination then let the games begin. Trump has ZERO substance and ZERO character and Hillary will kick his ass!

It will be with great pleasure watching clips of Trump saying “I’m a winner, I like to win” while he crashes and burns on Election Day! I’m betting he is already crafting excuses to use for not winning.

[Wounded Bear]

10. That's what really sucks...

Trump knows how to play the media game and keep his name on screen. Hopefully we start to see some Trump fatigue soon, now that he's the only Repub for them to focus on.

[NoMoreRepugs]

13. slowly but surely the MSM is going to have to ask T-Rump serious questions....

that's when the Independent bloc of voters will see what a poor choice he would be as POTUS

[Helen Borg]

14. You wish...

[BainsBane]

15. You don't wish?

You're rooting for him? !

[Helen Borg]

17. Wishful thinking by Clinton supporters...

To try to erode the reality of things: That Hillary would lose to Trump whereas Sander would trounce him!

[Laser102]

19. Why would you wish that for Bernie? Not one attack against him yet. Wait for it.

[BainsBane]

30. Because corporate polls say so

and naturally you insist the corporate media rather than citizens select the nominee. Obviously you've decided to suspend all critical thought and spend your life repeating Bernie's talking points, because anyone who believes that argument shouldn't use the word reality. The inability to distinguish a politician's self-serving rhetoric from reality is a particularly sad state of affairs. But nevermind. Corporate polls pronounce Bernie the winner, and corporations must always prevail over mere voters.

Bernie hasn't been even a little bit vetted. The mere fact he calls himself a socialist is a dream come true for the GOP. They'd have him indistinguishable from Stalin and Pol Pot in no time. Then there is the legions of stuff Clinton never mentioned, like the tens of millions in illegal campaign contributions for which he has already been cited by the FEC, and the extent to which he has funneled money to his wife throughout his political campaigns, and doubtless far more the GOP op research would unleash. The fact is Bernie has never faced one negative campaign ad.

Ultimately what would happen in some alternate dimension doesn't matter. Clinton is the nominee. Bernie can't beat Trump because he can't beat Hillary. Bernie trails by a wide margin. No other candidate who trails by this much has ever stayed in the race. But Bernie has a cause to uphold: He has pledged to get the superdelegates to overturn the results of elections and install him in power against the will of the electorate. How can the rights of the majority possibly compare to the self-entitlement of Sanders supporters, when Bernie has repeatedly proclaimed them more important than the lowly Democratic majority--the people of color, women, elderly, disabled, and other Democrats throughout the country.

Enter Trump, who you have decided to root for while showing abject contempt for the majority of Democrats.

June 14 cannot come soon enough.

[Helen Borg]

40. Righto. The Corporations want Bernie.

Makes a lot of sense. Go on, pal.

[riversedge]

29. yah think that was a freudian slip?

[BainsBane]

32. No.

[riversedge]

36. Neither do I.

[Laser102]

18. I am hoping the haters who show at his rallies, are the minority. I am hoping decent Republicans

will refuse to vote for the carnival barker. I am hoping the country will unify against him. Then again I'm told I may have a false sense of what America is all about. Still, I'm optimistic she will win.

[UMTerp01]

27. Once again, GE polls don't matter this far out

I said it when Trump was gaining and had a lead and I'm not going to be a hypocrite now and say to take these polls for what they are worth. Its too early. No VP picks yet, no debates. The election will be decided in Sept/October.

[riversedge]

28. "poll released this morning showed Trump losing to Clinton"---good to hear.

[ffr]

33. Forget the polls. GOTV!!!

Democrats that vote make the difference.

[BainsBane]

38. Always!!!!

GOTV is what wins elections. Polls don't matter. Ads have limited effectiveness. Organizing is everything.

[mcar]

34. K&R

[Stellar]

39. Donald Trump's world views make world 'less safe': Poll

Much More: Aljazeera

Donald Trump's world views make world 'less safe': Poll
Survey in six US-allied countries show 78 percent of all respondents "dislike" or "hate" the Republican candidate.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is making the world less safe, and his policies are causing people to view America negatively, according to a global survey in six countries allied with the US.

A poll published on Thursday showed that an average of 78 percent of the people from all those countries "dislike" or "hate" the billionaire businessman from New York.

The market research group YouGov conducted the survey in the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Mexico, Canada and Japan, for the activist network Avaaz.

[gratuitous]

41. Donald Trump isn't exactly the Breck girl

That is, the closer you get, the better he doesn't look. Right now media outlets are churning furiously, trying to inflate that leaky balloon. But the bad reports just keep piling up every time Trump opens his mouth, and his surrogates have to come out and explain over and over why Trump really isn't racist, or sexist, or classist, despite everything the public sees and hears.

Keep on keeping on, pointing out the shortcomings (heh) of the Trump campaign. There will be an irreducible number of fanatical supporters for him, but they don't represent anything like a majority.

[LenaBaby61]

42. First of all...

May is a bit too early to be believing in polling showing whose going to be POTUS in November. Also, how accurate IS the polling being used, and is the weighting of the people participating in the polling accurate? We definitely have a volatile electorate, but you have polling outfits out there not even polling huge segments of the population and trying to pass that off as "good" polling. Also, I usually go more by state to state polling as a better way of keeping my sanity during presidential elections. Also as far as polling goes, there is evidence to show that people tend to vote differently in the primaries than they do in the GE. People aren't really engaged right now with Memorial Day coming and with all of the activity of Summer on people's minds, and the biggest factor happening now is that Hillary Clinton is still engaged in a primary with Bernie Sanders on the Dem side, however the primary race is SOON to be over by June 14th, and Hillary Clinton will BE the Democratic nominee for POTUS. Finally, we haven't had one debate, and I'm very sure in a head-to-head debate contest, Hillary will do very well vs Trump who has not one policy idea in that big, empty head of his--all he knows how to do is insult people and lie, plus as many know Trump is benefiting from an "angry electorate" who are buying into the "it's their fault," misogynistic, sexist and race-baiting he's doing that exists not only in society and of course within the GOP. The man is exceedingly dangerous and shape-shifts like a chameleon. He is someone to be reckoned with, however, when you try to pin him down on anything, the man reveals himself as the biggest "Nothing Burger" we've seen running for political office in a long time.

Finally, Elizabeth Warren has been one of Hillary Clinton's biggest weapons/assets to date in going after Trump and embarrassing him like the clown that he is on social media, but I REALLY look forward to when Barack Obama can officially say that Hillary Clinton IS our nominee for president, then goes out campaigning with Hillary Clinton and on her behalf and using the bully pulpit to start shredding Trump into pieces as only President Obama can do.

[JCMach1]

43. Reuters/Ipsos gives Trump only 44% of the White vote. That % will send Trump down in an epic

landslide...

Watch the poll internals, they tell the real story at this point.

To even have a remote shot, Trump needs 55%+ of the White vote.