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Sun May 29, 2016, 04:51 PM

 

Trump vs. Clinton: A Daunting and Ominous Electoral Map (this is from right wing website too)

This discussion thread was locked as off-topic by NH Ethylene (a host of the General Discussion forum).

http://www.redstate.com/diary/davenj1/2016/05/22/trump-vs.-clinton-may-closer-people-think/

Generally speaking, this writer ignores national presidential polls since we do not elect our President by the popular vote. Instead, one must do a state-by-state analysis to determine electoral votes with 270 being the goal. Many pundits have noted the so-called Blue Wall (ironic- Trump has to climb over that wall)- an advantage that the Democratic Party enjoys in the Electoral count.

If we look at the average margin of victory for the candidate of either party over the past four presidential cycles and exclude the states where the average margin of victory for either party was less than 5% and assign that group of states to the swing category, we find that the Democratic Party holds a 247-196 advantage in the Electoral vote count. They only need 23 electoral votes from a pool of remaining “swing states.” They can get all 23 in one fell swoop by taking Florida and their 29 electoral votes. Even losing Florida leaves them more possible combinations to victory. In short, there is a starting advantage for the Democrats.

Of course, the Republican candidate can upset that balance by taking a traditionally blue state. Some have suggested that Trump’s best path to the White House involves flipping a blue state in the Upper Midwest. Simply flipping Pennsylvania, for example, would still give the Democrats an advantage. The problem with that scenario is that practically every cycle, Republicans believe they can flip Michigan or Wisconsin or especially Pennsylvania, but when the votes are counted, they run into reality.

Obviously, we are still a long way from Election Day and a lot can happen between now and then and likely will happen. An unforeseen economic disaster or (God forbid) a terrorist attack on American soil can seriously alter the race. Further, many states are ignored when it comes to polling in hypothetical match-ups, while other states are over-emphasized. Either way, this cycle has taught us that polls really aren’t worth much- slightly more accurate than the punditry of supposed political experts.

snip


here is my best guess atm as to the final election numbers (bear in mind FL, CO and OH can ALL flip to trump and Clinton still wins)


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Replies to this discussion thread
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Reply Trump vs. Clinton: A Daunting and Ominous Electoral Map (this is from right wing website too) (Original post)
AntiBank May 2016 OP
MFM008 May 2016 #1
beachbumbob May 2016 #2
Cassiopeia May 2016 #3
doc03 May 2016 #4
AntiBank May 2016 #6
truebluegreen May 2016 #5
Chemisse May 2016 #7

Response to AntiBank (Original post)

Sun May 29, 2016, 04:55 PM

1. I agree

even if we lose 1 or 2
we may pick up one or 2
Even if he wins the popular vote he loses the electoral college.
Then the fun begins.

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Response to AntiBank (Original post)

Sun May 29, 2016, 04:56 PM

2. I suspect many more states in play for Hillary won't be surprise to see

 

Texas...Georgia...Mississippi...Missouri...Iowa...north and South Carolina....and even Arizona....all be competitive....

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Response to AntiBank (Original post)

Sun May 29, 2016, 04:57 PM

3. If FL, VA, and OH flip

Trump wins.

Here in FL I've seen hundreds of Trump signs and stickers. I've seen quite a few Bernie stickers and signs. I have yet to see a Hillary sticker or sign.

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Response to Cassiopeia (Reply #3)

Sun May 29, 2016, 05:02 PM

4. Exactly the same in Ohio n/t

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Response to Cassiopeia (Reply #3)

Sun May 29, 2016, 05:05 PM

6. I don't see VA flipping, if it does, it's going to be a lonnnng night

 

Demographics are basically rendering the Rethugs perennial also rans, they had a chance to nominate Kasich (IMHO their best chance) and he was crushed. The party is even more fractured than the Dems.

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Response to AntiBank (Original post)

Sun May 29, 2016, 05:04 PM

5. I'd like to see an overlay of states

 

with restrictive voter ID laws--that could certainly flip a few states!....which is why they were passed. Only the right people should be able to vote.

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Response to AntiBank (Original post)

Mon May 30, 2016, 05:12 AM

7. Locking

Any mention of either of our primary candidates belongs in GD P - even if talking about the general election.

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