538: Be Wary Of Claims About How The Orlando Attack Will Affect The Election

[Doctor Jack]

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have already responded to the deadliest mass shooting in U.S. history, which occurred Sunday morning at a gay nightclub in Orlando. Indeed, the massacre, carried out by a man who swore allegiance to the Islamic State, will reshape the dialog around the presidential election, in the short term at least. But the truth is that we don’t know how the tragedy will affect the race, and we should be careful about making too many conclusions based on the polls too soon.

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As my colleague Nate Silver wrote, Trump voters reacted positively to his calls for a temporary ban on any Muslims’ entering the U.S. and tougher restrictions on immigration more generally. Trump won a far higher percentage of the vote during the primaries among people who listed immigration as the issue most important to them and among those who favored a temporary ban on Muslim immigrants.

But, as Nate pointed out at the time, it’s difficult to tease out exactly how much of a bounce Trump really got. Moreover, Trump’s support didn’t move much after the bombings in Brussels in March, which suggests the voters disposed to favor Trump due to the threat of terrorism may have already moved into his camp. That is, voters are now aware of Trump’s positions, and he may not have any more ground to gain.

This leads to a second point: The general election electorate is much different than a GOP primary electorate. Just because Trump gained support among Republicans after a terrorist attack doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll gain among voters at large. Trump, for instance, saw his favorability ratings among Republicans go up during the primary, while at the same time they went down among both Democrats and independents.

-snip-

Polls show Americans view Clinton as better prepared than Trump is to deal with an international crisis. In the ABC News/Washington Post poll from May, she led Trump by 19 percentage points on this question. She also led Trump on who was more trusted on “social issues such as gay marriage and abortion” by 33 percentage points in a Gallup survey conducted in May.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/be-wary-of-claims-about-how-the-orlando-attack-will-affect-the-election/?ex_cid=538twitter

[Moral Compass]

1. This mirrors my take on what's going on

I think he's got the hysterical, frightened gun nuts already. He's got the people that wouldn't vote Democratic if the Republicans personally shipped their jobs to Bangladesh and there were pictures.

I work with someone that quickly became furious at anyone bringing up gun control in any form. He was especially angry that Obama had noted that if the Republicans had not defeated a bill that would have kept anyone that is on the no fly list from buying a firearm then this disaffected whack job wouldn't have been so well armed.

But he was never in play. Neither are any of the people that would gleefully slam our borders shut and build the wall across the southern border. They weren't ever going to vote for anyone not with the Republican imprimatur on it.

These are not rational players and are therefore natural Trump voters.

This isn't a rational game he's playing. He's already got those people.