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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsCook Political-Trump Will Be the Nominee. Period.
Cook Political Report:In the wake of recent polling showing a Trump slump and record high disapproval ratings (he hit 70 percent unfavorable in the Washington Post/ABC News poll), the establishment Twitter-verse has exploded with the theories of how Trump will be dumped by his party before the RNC convention in July. I have heard the same version of this theory from otherwise rational, politically deft insiders on the left. I talked with a high-ranking Democrat the other night who joked, with a level of seriousness that surprised me, that Trump will be pulled from the ballot before the fall, leaving the GOP with a stronger candidate to face Hillary Clinton. Surely, goes the thinking of these theorists, GOP voters cant look at these numbers and think that Trump can still win? Well, yes, actually, they do.
As someone who sometimes gets caught in the insulated allure of Twitter, its important for me and those of us who spend our days inside the campaign machine, to remember who and what normal voters are. Most voters dont look at the RealClearPolitics polling averages. Nor do they spend their day digging through cross-tabs and the Electoral College map. More important, if we learned anything from this primary campaign season, its that a big chunk of the GOP base is voting against everything that the GOP leadership stands for. They didnt accept the premise of the 2013 RNC Autopsy that we must embrace and champion comprehensive immigration reform but actively and knowingly supported a candidate who argued that we should deport immigrants and build a wall to keep them out. They dont like, trust, or believe what their leaders or the MSM has been peddling. Why would they listen to their entreaties now?
More important, as I have written many times before, an Anti-Trump campaign cant succeed without a Pro-Another Candidate to replace him. The most obvious choices to oust Trump at the convention Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz have said they arent interested in putting up a fight. Leaders of the #NeverTrump movement have failed to produce a third-party option. You cant have a coup without a replacement. Period.
MADem
(135,425 posts)The Russians--since they hacked the DNC server--know how much dirt there is out there on him, but a lot of Americans don't have the full picture. Soon enough!
If we were to use just one word to describe that assclown, Repulsive would vie with Despicable for the first prize!
PoliticAverse
(26,366 posts)they wouldn't be winning the presidential election so there would have to be some other
reason for doing it.
onehandle
(51,122 posts)Not to mention many State Houses and Governorships.
Hillary voters, Please vote downticket or you are with Trump.
wiggs
(7,810 posts)win the GOP primary and go on to win the general. I think Jeb said that, and it appears axiomatic. After Trump quits at the convention or just before, they will nominate someone who didn't win the primary and make a serious run for not only the WH but to keep the senate and house and many governorships. Maybe this is in just Trump's head, maybe other GOP insiders know.
Trump does not want to lose. Trump isn't raising enough money and he won't fund a general election campaign. He will quit. RNC and GOP leaders are criticizing him just enough so that he can claim lack of support. If the quitting is Trump's idea rather than a coup, maybe they won't lose as many of his tea partier supporters.
The stakes are soooo high that I suspect Trump is willing to be bought out to drop. He will make money on this adventure. He may even brag about it. And plenty of high rollers will be willing to ante up to get a real candidate in there and protect down ballot candidates. My guess is that he'll need 200 million in 'compensation'....100 million to cover costs, 100 million to have something to brag about.
wiggs
(7,810 posts)more reason to think he's not going to stay in
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/trump-isn-t-doing-poorly-he-s-not-even-running
FLPanhandle
(7,107 posts)I was beginning to worry that the GOP would find an alternative. Trump is the greatest gift to Democrats in my lifetime.