Trump's plans would cause 'lengthy recession,' cost millions of jobs: analysis

[TomCADem]

It is funny given the lack of specificity of Trump's proposals that Moody had to test Trump’s plans under three scenarios: one in which Trump is taken at face value and his plans are enacted exactly as he has described, a second where his policies are adopted but at a more modest level, and a third where a skeptical Congress scale back Trump’s plans due to “political realities.”

http://thehill.com/policy/finance/284095-study-economy-would-be-significantly-weaker-under-trump

Donald Trump’s economic proposals would isolate the United States, hurt its economic growth, increase the federal deficit and cost millions of American jobs, according to new analysis.

The grim findings from Moody’s Analytics state that the nation’s wealthiest would benefit the most from the presumptive GOP nominee's proposals, while middle- and lower-class Americans would be hurt the most.

“The economy will be significantly weaker if Mr. Trump’s economic proposals are adopted. Under the scenario in which all his stated policies become law in the manner proposed, the economy suffers a lengthy recession and is smaller at the end of his four-year term than when he took office,” the report said.

“By the end of his presidency, there are close to 3.5 million fewer jobs and the unemployment rate rises to as high as 7%, compared with below 5% today. During Mr. Trump’s presidency, the average American household’s after-inflation income will stagnate, and stock prices and real house values will decline.”

[meaculpa2011]

1. Moody's? The sames geniuses...

that gave the A-OK to Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers in 2007?

I have no doubt that a Trump presidency would be a disaster, but... Moody's?

[TomCADem]

2. Hey, Maybe They Are Wrong and Trump's Plans Will Work...

...huge tax cuts to the rich. Maybe they will work this time.

[rexcat]

3. I am sure that Moody's...

was forced to cleaned up their act in 2009 if my memory serves me so the analysis of Trump's plan is probably worth taking into account. Given 2007 was nine years ago and there has been significant change in the industry I would not dismiss their analysis out of hand. I am also sure other firms will either confirm or refute Moody's analysis. One study does not necessarily make the case but if Moody's analysis is independently confirmed what say you?

[joshcryer]

6. Nope, Bush's Credit Rating Agency Reform Act has not been repealed.

Or reformed in any way. The credit agencies are almost arbitrary when it comes to the tens of thousands of agencies they review. If anything you just pay them to give you a good rating and they make up a report that ... gives you a good rating.

But they're probably not wrong on Trump in any event, and I would expect that this report would get more scrutiny than some small mortgage agency somewhere in some small city, so they probably did due diligence on it.

[rexcat]

8. Since the report had nothing to do about ratings...

and as you stated their review will be critically scrutinized I am sure the report was thoroughly vetted within the company. Just because the report is from Moody's does not mean it should be dismissed out of hand.

Thanks for the correction. Seems I was misinformed concerning credit rating companies. I suppose we can thank all those politicians paid of by the ratings companies. You would also think if they are giving high ratings to companies who don't deserve them they would be open to law suits by investors.

[joshcryer]

9. Yeah you're right I found the report and posted it.

It's basically the lead guy taking Tax Policy Center's report (which is very well done) and then adding their own twist. Speculating about the cost of deporting hundreds of thousands of people can be fun!

https://www.economy.com/getlocal?q=FB345E2F-168C-43D7-8040-E8A0773C4A9D&app=download

And yeah, my speculation was on target, this is a big well known agency, they knew that releasing this would get big coverage, so if anything it's a vote of no confidence in Trump, and they are doing it intentionally. And unlike other posters, I don't think it's "reverse psychology." Trump's uncertainty scares a lot of people!

[Wounded Bear]

4. Maybe they are trying to 'reverse psychologize' the situation...

Maybe if Moody's thinks he's bad, we'll all jump on the band wagon because they're so full of shit that Trump has to be something good.

Right?

Well, amiright?

Anybody out there?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

5. that's it ! But my first reaction is - This is so old..

Everyone knows his "plan" probably changes hourly. Moody's would have to hire a full time special team to adjust their analysis constantly

[joshcryer]

7. All they did was repackage the Tax Policy Center (liberal think tank)...

...and add in their own speculation about Trump's insane deportation policies, and laughed at his idiotic tariff policies.

You can read it here: https://www.economy.com/getlocal?q=FB345E2F-168C-43D7-8040-E8A0773C4A9D&app=download

[brentspeak]

10. They're actually critiquing him from the RIGHT

They take issue not just with Trump's trade policy (i.e, putting a spigot on cheap imports and resulting industry offshoring), but with his suggestion that state minimum wages be raised.

As mentioned above, Moody's played a major role in the manufactured 2008 crisis and now-permanent recession. There have to be better sources to criticize Trump that this self-serving global elite scam firm.