Brand New Monmouth University Poll- Clinton 47% Trump 40% (registered voters) 49-41 (likely voters)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

West Long Branch, NJ – In a head-to-head contest for president, Hillary Clinton leads Donald
Trump by 7 points among registered voters and by 8 points among likely voters. The Democrat’s lead
shrinks by a point when potential third party support is taken into account. Both major party nominees
remain unpopular, but more voters say it is important to keep Trump rather than Clinton out of the White
House. The latest Monmouth University Poll also finds that attitudes towards terrorism and the
Republican nominee’s proposed Muslim ban have not changed much since the Orlando tragedy.
Currently, Clinton holds a 7 point lead in a direct match-up against Trump – 47% to 40% among
registered voters nationally. Among those who are likely to cast ballots in November, the Democrat’s
edge expands to 49%–41%. Importantly, Clinton holds a 47% to 39% lead in the all-important swing
states – ten states where the winning margin in the 2012 election was less than seven points


http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/568faad2-81ab-4bd0-b373-8577326e76bd.pdf

[lapfog_1]

1. I can't believe that it's that close.

[6chars]

2. I'll take your 47 and raise you 10.

There is upside potential. A lot of her negatives are based on a caricature of who she really is. Can't say the same for Trump's negatives.

[TwilightZone]

3. Agreed.

On all counts.

[Doctor Jack]

9. And most of those negatives are from Sanders supporters

She had really good numbers until about 8 weeks ago and then Sanders supporters got angry. She has about 70% of them on board right now and most of the undecideds in the head to head polls against trump are Sanders holdouts. Its pretty much only a pool of potential clinton voters left to win over. Trump has no one left to draw in.

[stopbush]

4. And yet MSNBC is claiming that Hillary has lost points against Rump

since Orlando.

That one showed up in my FB feed.

[Doctor Jack]

6. MSNBC is full of shit

They always want to claim an election is close when it isn't. I remember on election night 2008, after the first results were coming in, they were saying that the night was shaping up to be a repeat of 2004. That channel has no credibility.

[jamese777]

20. Don't Kill The Messenger

There is a Bloomberg Poll that shows Hillary trouncing Trump by 12 but he gets a better score on combatting terrorism:
"One bit of positive news for Trump in the results is that he narrowly edges out Clinton, 45 percent to 41 percent, when those surveyed were asked which candidate they would have more confidence in if a similar attack to the one in Florida took place a year from now. The violence left 49 victims dead, the worst mass shooting in U.S. history.
Fifty percent to 45 percent, Trump is also viewed as stronger among likely voters in combating terrorist threats at home and abroad."
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-06-14/bloomberg-politics-national-poll-june-2016

[IronLionZion]

18. Media will always claim its closer than it really is

because close is more exciting and gets more viewers.

Hillary will generally have a higher lead than what any mainstream media outlet reports. Nate Silver has had the most accurate polling over the last 8 years and he is favoring Hillary to win by 75% probability.

[Sophiegirl]

21. ^^THIS^^

[TygrBright]

5. That's WAY too close... n/t

[Doctor Jack]

7. Just wait until more sanders people get on board

That 8 point lead will easily move into double digits.

[phazed0]

12. We have to find a way to stop alienating them, first. nt

[phazed0]

8. So in other words, nothing has changed since the Reuters poll on the 9th?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=1482550

That's not good.

[Adrahil]

10. You can't really compare individual polls from different pollsters.

The differences in methodology make them impossible to interpret on that level of detail. Look at the polls aggregates and trends there. There has been a good 5-6 point shift towards Clinton in that. That's pretty significant. But it's a long way to November.

[phazed0]

11. Sure I can..

There's a whole site that is dedicated to doing just that. http://fivethirtyeight.com/

Also, 5pts has been the margin of error numbers for most of these... so that's not good in my eyes. Yes it could be higher for Clinton but that would be guessing, it may very well may be a very close race, ATM.

I'm quite worried about the General, Hillary can spit out a bunch of reasonable stuff.. but it's been pretty clear that "reasonable stuff" isn't what wins.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. 538 is averaging polls. It isn't comparing polls.

You can't cite a poll by Pollster X taken on such and such a date and compare it with a poll by Pollster Y on such and such a date. You can compare two polls at different dates by the same pollster though.

[phazed0]

25. OK, so polls averaged.. still not looking good. nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. I guess it depends if one is a Clinton supporter or a Trump supporter.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton

[bluestateguy]

13. Democrats usually do worse with likely voter samples, not better

Wonder if that means anything.

[SpankMe]

14. Keep ignoring polls, for now

These things change on a dime. Who knows what October surprises Republicans have in store for us? Who knows how much worse Trump can get. (We aren't even close to seeing the bottom of this moron;s barrel.)

If I see Hillary up by 7 or more within 2 weeks of the election, I'll feel better. (Voters are flakey and have a short memory.) But, as for now, even a 15 point lead doesn't mean anything.

[demmayhem]

15. That's a little close for a solid blue state in a POTUS year...

... even dicier with both being unpopular

[jamese777]

24. Its a National Poll

not a New Jersey poll.

[fifthquartile]

17. Its WAY too early to give this any weight. I mean its better than being behind, but .......

Remember 1988 - Dukakis led Bush in the polls most of the year. Then got destroyed in the general :

Dukakis Lead Widens, According to New Poll
Published: July 26, 1988 NY Times

Fifty-five percent of the 948 registered voters interviewed in the poll said they preferred to see Mr. Dukakis win the 1988 Presidential election, while 38 percent said they preferred to see Mr. Bush win. The poll had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.

This represented a shift in Mr. Dukakis's lead from the 47 percent to 41 percent advantage he held in the last pre-convention Gallup Poll, taken by telephone July 8-10. In that poll, 1,001 registered voters were interviewed.

The survey of 504 registered voters likely to cast ballots, conducted on Friday and Saturday by Peter Hart, a Democratic poll taker, showed Mr. Dukakis leading Mr. Bush by 50 percent to 40 percent.

[moreland01]

19. Let's Vote!

What are we waiting for? It's only going to get way worse for Trump. Bring it on. I refuse to hand-wring for 4 more months. Hillary is going to win. Any other outcome is impossible to fathom, so I won't.

Love the video!

[Cryptoad]

22. The political bettin houses

have Hillary leading by around 38 pts..... hard to go against the money!

[jamese777]

23. "Romney Leads Obama by 7 points"

This Gallup Poll was from late OCTOBER, 2012, not June.
Gallup Poll: Romney Leads Obama 52-45

Mitt Romney extended his lead Sunday over President Barack Obama in a much-discussed Gallup poll that shows the GOP challenger now leading by 7 points, 52-45, among likely voters.

While most surveys show Obama and Romney locked in a virtual dead heat, Gallup alone finds that the Republican would win by a comfortable margin if the election were held today.

Questions about the gap between Gallup's findings and those of other pollsters is the latest fuss this election season over polling methodology as partisan passions come to a boil in the heated final weeks before the November 6 presidential contest.

With a record of correctly predicting all but three of the 19 presidential races stretching back to 1936, Gallup is one of the most prestigious names in the business and its outlier status has other polling experts scratching their heads, Reuters reported.

On Sunday, Gallup Editor in Chief Frank Newport said the polling company’s methodology is “extremely solid.”

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/gallup-poll-romney-leads/2012/10/21/id/460837/#ixzz4C9UWqynj

[bluestateguy]

27. Yes I remember

That poll had me in a panic. But the state polls, even at that time, still looked good for Obama.

I also remember that poll got Bob Beckel at Fox to say the election was "over".

But even in that flawed poll, Obama gradually closed the deficit to one point by election eve.

[NastyRiffraff]

28. National polls are always problematic

because we don't elect presidents by national popular votes. There have been enough of them in the past that have been not only wrong, but catastrophically wrong, especially this early in the process.

[a kennedy]

29. ALL I KNOW IS THE DEMS HAVE TO PULL THIS OUT!!!!!! eom