OK. I've joined the crew that doesn't think Trump will be the nominee

[cali]

Last edited Tue Jun 21, 2016, 08:55 AM - Edit history (1)

Prior to the last few days, I couldn't wrap my mind around his narcissism/ego allowing him to drop out. Now I can't wrap my mind around his narcissism/ego allowing him to stay in and get beaten to shit over the next few months let alone being beaten to shit on election day by Hillary- a woman.

The last few days have revealed his campaign as nothing but a Potemkin Village. It's not built to sustain over the next month let alone until November. What would be worse for his business concerns? Dropping out now under the flimsy, filmy veil of "health" or staying in and being beat to shit for the next 5 months? Or forget his business concerns, this guy's thin skin and perilously overinflated ego, will self-destruct long before November.

I just don't see him making it to November.

[stonecutter357]

1. Trump will not be the nominee.

[cali]

4. OK. But why do you think he won't be? Who do you see as replacing him?

[seabeckind]

35. Let's start first with a theoretical replacement.

How about a drafted democrat, a third wayer who can't accept Hillary?

When I looked at the cv for Tim Ryan who somebody floated as a possible VP for the democrats,

he looked so much like Evan Bayh.

So in this big flurry of publicity as we go into the convention, this guy says he can't take it anymore...

not - either of the leadings.

Trump either bows out as a gesture of magnanimity or the gop does the "there, there", and moves him gently off the stage.

This new guy would be strong moderate leaning slightly left on social, slightly right on economic. He's automatically anti-gop establishment because he isn't part of their organization.

Practically no negatives.

The dems are left swinging at an opponent who left the ring. The gop runs on "see even some democrats..."

[mcar]

46. The GOP would never draft a Democrat

Even a conservative one. They would lose their entire base of RW tea party nut jobs.

[seabeckind]

54. Gotcha.

Never happen.

[sufrommich]

50. You can't be serious. The GOP base is going to accept a

moderate democrat to replace the guy they voted for in the primaries? That will happen when pigs fly through the convention doors.

[sufrommich]

61. I'm not supporting the "lesser of two evils"

"My candidate" is the democratic nominee,I don't know who yours is.

[seabeckind]

65. We're not talking about you.

Are we?

I think you fell into my first category.

Thanks for the personal attack.

[shadowandblossom]

94. calling any old thing a personal attack

doesn't make it one.

[Loki]

86. Lesser of two evils?

Really? "Your" candidate? My candidate is the one who garnered the majority of votes, the Democratic candidate for President and her name is Hillary Clinton. I've heard this discussion before and we have passed the primary season quite some time ago. Are you on board for the general? I plan on voting for our nominee, who will you be voting for?

[seabeckind]

89. Good for you.

Thank you for all your enthusiasm.

But there are a whole bunch of people in the world who aren't you.

Did my Bernie avatar give you some insight into my mind? That was it, wasn't it?

[Loki]

93. No it was the comment about lesser of two evils.

I don't think of either of our candidates in that light. The only "evil" in this race is the Republican whose name is Donald Trump.

[seabeckind]

97. I knew exactly what you said.

I had a really good idea why you said it.

As I tried to convey, making an assumption about anyone else's motives based on your motives is foolish.

Step back and look at how many people have said they would hold their nose and vote for ????

You don't think they have as much reason to believe that as you have to believe what you believe?

Not justification. Why.

[Loki]

99. I have no idea what you are talking about.

n/t

[cali]

146. I definitely am voting more against trump than for HRC

And should he be replaced, I will still be voting against the republican rather than for HRC. So, for me it is about choosing the least bad candidate.

There are tens of millions of people who share my sentiments. It's hardly a singular pov.

[Loki]

149. Tens of millions is just a little

Too much hyperbole for me. I hope we are all starting to look at the bigger picture of making sure that down ballot Dems win their races and make all the states become competitive. That is how we take back our government from the crazy train.

[cali]

150. It's not hyperbole. It's fact. It's baked in to her unfavorables.

[Loki]

161. Well my cousin is/was a Bernie supporter

But he will be voting for Hillary in Nov. We are both long time Democrats and will remain so. It was never the option to vote differently because we don't and have never believed in the propaganda so count one less in your "tens of millions".

[villager]

151. Well, there *will* be plenty of pigs at that convention.

No offense meant to actual pigs or hogs, of course.

[rjsquirrel]

78. In your scenario

where do 14 million Trump primary voters go?

[Else You Are Mad]

98. Probably...

They will vote for Gary Johnson or will not vote except down ticket (if that).

That is just my opinion, but they will NOT vote for whoever the replacement will be because that candidate will assuredly be a 'safe' establishment candidate. Trump, given his small war chest, will not go third party.



Regardless, any scenario helps Hillary win.

[karynnj]

83. It may be a Ryan, but not Tim. The GOP would never draft a Democrat

Who would really want him? The Trump supporters AND the Republican establishment would be furious. As to Democrats, how many Democrats are sitting there looking for someone to the right of Clinton - especially on choice? That leaves independents, which is really a catch all category for everyone not Republican or Democratic. It does NOT mean they are all centrists, swinging back and forth between the parties.

Not to mention, go back and look at the silly Democratic threads speaking of replacing Clinton. Ignore that it is not going to happen - but look at how many people start with the idea that the person had to already have a lot of name recognition. The same thing would be true for the Republicans. Starting with a complete unknown in summer 2016 is not possible - even if Trump became unable to run.

I suspect that if Trump were disabled, they would have to chose between Bush (who lost to Trump badly), Romney(who lost what the Republicans thought should have been an easy race), or Speaker Paul Ryan (less known, but younger, better liked by most of the party and who would be characterized as a saviour. )

[seabeckind]

91. Quite a few battles are lost

because the opponent did something that no one on the losing side thought would happen.

[karynnj]

120. True, but you have not made a case for why this would positively change the race

or why the Republicans would put a Democrat in as their nominee.

[GulfCoast66]

102. Not happening

They have bought a pig in a poke. Cannot dump him and win, cannot win with him.

Have you listened to the trump supporters? They are thrilled to have an open bigot and will accept nothing less

[Sheepshank]

121. I honestly don't think there is a way to move Trump gently off the stage...any more

he has made such a huge, yuge splash, so vocal, so loud, his supporters so beligerant and offensive. I know that so many want to help him "save face" and give him some sort of noble way out from all of this. Bbut frankly, I don't understand why so many are going through this maneuverings. He dug this hole, he's a big boy and it will do him some good to have to deal with his own consequences instead of us poor (literally) schmucks giving this asshole a noble exit.

[CanonRay]

53. Something like a Ryan-Lieberman ticket, or Romney-Whitman

that would draw off people who lean Dem but dislike/distrust Hillary. The R's would vote for Attila the Hun if there was an R after his name.

[seabeckind]

55. Somebody more like Tim Ryan, not the Ryan with all the negatives.

[laserhaas]

60. Let's see..who is taking over :-) :-) RNC

Rules Committee

That would be Romney's gal from Utah

And her Co-Chair Romney guy from Massachusets

[sufrommich]

64. The republican base despises Romney. There would be

a revolt of epic proportions.

[Orrex]

74. Oh, they're revolting all right.

Heigh-o!

[MFM008]

144. Cruz

He's anxious to do it.

[safeinOhio]

2. I'd give it 50/50

either way, the GOP is screwed by what it brought about.

[Warren Stupidity]

3. Unless Trump self-deports he is the nominee. NT.

[cali]

5. Why do you believe that?

[Warren Stupidity]

6. He has the pledged delegates for a first round win.

At the moment it is a done deal. The RNC would have to re-write the rules to prevent his nomination and that would be a worse disaster than his nomination. They aren't going to fix the problem by making it worse.

[TreasonousBastard]

9. Ya know, we all like to call Republicans stupid, but...

don't forget that these are the guys who put Nixon and Shrub in office and managed to gerrymander the whole country to keep it in their hands.

The clever bastards will think of something.

[merrily]

24. It seems as though the people who most enjoy calling Republicans stupid are the same ones

who claim Democratic officeholders are helpless to outsmart Republican officeholders. Seems like a disconnect of some kind.

[davidthegnome]

92. Hmm.

No disrespect, Merrily, but you are talking about people who, to some rather great extent... deny climate change. Millions of them think the dinosaurs walked the earth at the same time as humans, too. They, in general, do not accept evolution as more than a whacked out theory by a guy who was maybe a whacked out Satanist, you know, that Darwin fella... (a little sarcasm on that last bit, for those who didn't notice)

You are talking about people who have edited history books to censure any mention of things like slavery (because maybe then people will forget?). You are talking about people who think we are going to build a wall across the border - and make Mexico pay for it.

I could go on and on... and of course there are educated and intelligent republicans - but, in general? No, they really are kind of stupid. At best, they are ignorant and terribly uninformed. Are we helpless to outsmart them? No. The issue is that we are helpless to outvote them, at present. We can be brilliant, we can be a million times smarter than them, but it doesn't matter if we don't have the votes.

[merrily]

148. My post is about D.C. politicians.

I very much doubt U.S. Senators of any party believe that dinosaurs walked the same time as humans. Also, I am not talking about people who bemoan Democrat's being outvoted, but who say or post things about a Democrat like "He just doesn't get it."

[Cosmocat]

116. They are relentless jackasses, no doubt, but they are dead in the water

on this one.

Honestly, there is less energy with them now to take the nomination from Trump than back in April.

There are good reasons for this.

He simply got past a critical mass of actual votes, states won and delegates that leaves them with too little wiggle room.

They know if they take the nomination from him, that:

1) The convention will be a shit show the likes of which the body politic of this country has never seen, and they will forever be defined by it.

2) Trump will work relentlessly to make the nominee lose.

3) A BIG chunk of the pods who voted for him in the primary will be lost to their party for a generation, and they win a LOT of elections with those pods.

They will have next to no chance to win if they take the nomination from him, and will suffer long term damage to the party, well past this cycle.

[TreasonousBastard]

123. I suspect that they are gaspng at the thought of just giving it to Hillary...

and waiting another four years. That wasn't the plan, but neither was Trump.

Anyway, the GOP was flat broke after Nixon and couldn't even make the rent on the DC office-- many assumed it was their death, but look what happened.

[seabeckind]

68. Unless he is no longer a contender

then the delegates are released.

Yeah, I know. Never happen.

[Warren Stupidity]

72. Right. Imho that is the only realistic scenario.

Trump would have to take himself out. He won't. He will get through to the convention. There will be enough money for a campaign. Outside of the bush Romney crowd the leadership will at least nominally support him.

[TreasonousBastard]

7. This end game thing keeps coming up, but...

in the past every time he went belly-up he cashed in a few bucks, stiffed his employees and investors and claimed he was the "winner."

I really can't see how he can do that this time. A miserably inept campaign falling to a black hole isn't the same as a bunch of casinos or airline he had no idea how to run. He never suffered the humiliation of being a bankrupt imposter before, but this time there seems to be no way out.

He's in way over his head here.

[cali]

19. a good summation. Much better than my op

[wiggs]

88. He'll either demand money from the RNC to drop out (the RNC,

Kochs, Adelsons, Romney etc will gladly pay hundreds of millions) or he'll sue the RNC for billions. Either way, Trump gets over.

[Sheepshank]

122. I think the GOP will let him sink like a rock

It's their best defense. and hopefully avoids a literal bloody war within their ranks.

They will regroup, strategize and coalesce (I believe this is their biggest strength under normal conditions) and in 4 years be quite the different group that the Tea Baggers attempted to make it into.

[TreasonousBastard]

124. It might not be a bad thing if this forces the adults in the GOP...

(and there are some) to take back their party.

[FLPanhandle]

8. I agree with you.

I think behind the scenes the RNC will reimburse him for all his primary election spend (plus a little golden parachute), then Trump will terminate his own nomination.

That will allow the GOP to select someone else without pissing of the Trump supporters.

The GOP gets rid of Trump.
Trump gets a bunch of money, publicity and saves face.

Trump will not be the nominee.

[safeinOhio]

25. You may be right, one thing about money grubbers,

they can be bought.

[jimlup]

10. Yeah the whole think is looking pretty grim but...

I don't think he'll exit voluntarily. I don't know how exactly they are going to uproot him?

As my wife pointed out yesterday - it is probably much better for us if he is so let's not play "hope" politics. Let's prepare for the now somewhat more likely situation that he isn't.

[drray23]

143. money or the lack of it will

What if he can not raise enough money to continue his campaign ? Right now its nearly broke. If the gop does nothing Trump will have to suspend or bankrupt himself.
After he pulls out the gop donors can come in and bank the new nominee.

[sufrommich]

11. Trump's ego won't allow it,that's my opinion. Look

at it through the eyes of a bombastic narcissist,he can't fail,failure is un-masculine and shows weakness. I think he'd rather die than retreat. If he's not the nominee,it will be because the GOP stops him and he will cause as much damage as he can if they do that.He's convinced himself that he doesn't need the traditional campaign apparatus because the people love him.I will be shocked if he backs out,he may be pushed out but it won't be voluntarily.

[cali]

20. I think his ego won't allow him to stay in.

[tk2kewl]

43. The last thing he is willing to be branded is a LOSER

[sufrommich]

52. He is already planning on making the convention a

4 day lovefest with him in center ring. I don't think he's going to give that up.

[cali]

67. but that looks less and less likely to happen with every passing day

and it never looked like a viable plan to begin with

[crim son]

81. I've been going back and forth on this one.

We know how much he despises criticism of any sort. On the other hand he appears to be oblivious to the fact that he is a ridiculous, absurd man who is not feared because of his power but because of his ignorance. Which of his weaknesses will dominate?

[PJMcK]

82. One thing about Donald Trump

Whenever his businesses have failed, he ends up with the cash and spins the loss as a win. His narcissism powers his ego such that I don't think he is consciously aware of his failures. In short, I believe Mr. Trump is insane.

In any event, his bigger problems are organizational and financial. His campaign doesn't have the state-by-state field operations in place and they're way behind in getting this set up. Additionally, his war chest is nearly empty and many regular donors are staying on the sidelines. Further, Mr. Trump isn't making the requests he needs to. Since he isn't nearly as rich as he claims, (or thinks?), he either can't or won't finance his campaign himself.

But you already know all of this, sufrommich!

[Fla Dem]

113. I agree, and his kids are all in as well. His son DT jr was all over the airways yesterday

talking about the firing of Corey Lewandowski. I tell you he is as articulate as his father is a mumbling mouth full of idiocy. He sounded like a seasoned politician. Spoke articulately about his father's campaign, weaved and dodged all the questions thrown at him. As I listened to him, I thought, well his Dad may never be president, but this "kid" sure has a future. The decision to get rid of Lewandowski was encouraged by his kids, Ivanka, Donald Jr and Eric. They don't make a change like that if they don't intend to go all the way.

[Eric J in MN]

12. Trump won the Republican primaries

...through free media: speeches being broadcast, debates, and interviews.

Maybe he can win the general that way or maybe not. But I don't see why he wouldn't believe he could.

[karynnj]

115. I think you are right

I also think the Republican establishment is worried, but the nominee of either party really does become the head of the party.

For Trump, everything that happened this year showed the Party leaders, top political strategists and the media pundits - left and right - were all wrong. The fact that a comedian could (and did) write a The Producers parody shows that he has consistently turned conventional wisdom on its head. He touched plenty of third rails -- and was merely more energized the next day. He continued to win the primaries.

What this shows is that Trump is not one to take experts' advise and it is very likely that he pays little attention to polling. That may be why he does not seem to believe his unprecedented unfavorable numbers. (In fact, he likely rationalizes that Clinton's were about 50 too -- though I suspect her negatives will fall with her ads and her convention and her being the only viable sane candidate. I do not see his falling much. In fact, as he fails - they can go higher.)

What seemed to long be the case is that he had a base who liked him that grew to be slightly over 50% of the Republican and Republican leaning independents. This is not unusual for the primaries. (A Republican could say something similar about HRC using 60%) What IS unusual is that the remaining Republicans and Republican leaning independents contain a LARGE segment who say that they will never support him and see him as more unfavorable than favorable. He can not win the general election if he can not unify those who are in the Republican base - and you have party leaders already announcing they will miss the convention!

This is really an unprecedented situation. The ONLY time in the past that a nominee had approval ratings below 30 was with an unpopular sitting President. Neither Jimmy Carter or GHWB could win back enough people. The question might be whether being the President made the negatives firmer by being more entrenched and based on people's demand for change.

Add to that, that he was neither of the party establishment or recruited by the party elders (ie Eisenhower). There is not even a close Democratic equivalent. Even had Sanders won, he would not have been as outside of the political norm - in spite of having been an independent.

[leeroysphitz]

13. I don't think he will make it out of the convention... n/t

[TexasMommaWithAHat]

79. Me, neither.

[LostOne4Ever]

14. The man is delusional-he actually thinks he is going to win. He won't ever drop out.

[font style="font-family:'Georgia','Baskerville Old Face','Helvetica',fantasy;" size=4 color=#009999]If anything, after he loses he will probably accuse Hillary of cheating him, concoct a gigantic conspiracy theory and declare himself the "real president." [/font]

[bemildred]

15. Schrodinger's Candidate.

His candidacy is in a state of quantum ambiguity, in which he is simultaneously the candidate and not the candidate, and which will be resolved at some random future date when he decays into two down-bogons and a bunch of goobinoes.

[cali]

21. oh how I wish I could rec your comment. thank you so for the laugh

[merrily]

26. Genius comment.

[malthaussen]

47. DUzy!

What Cali said. This board really needs a rec button for posts.

-- Mal

[bemildred]

49. Thank you, Mal, I thought it needs work, but the idea is there ...

Given our politicians wish to always have it both ways, quantum politics seems a natural description.

[malthaussen]

59. I stole it to pass it on to others not on DU...

... maybe not perfect, but "two down-bogons" really had me laughing.

-- Mal

[cyberswede]

56. LOL - perfect.

[BlueMTexpat]

111. Best response, IMO!

It certainly makes as much sense as anything else.

[ProfessorGAC]

134. Beauty, B!

Great post!

[Mc Mike]

164. Great insight. +1000, nt.

[Lee-Lee]

16. Could it all be one big con?

GOP lets him take it, he agrees to play the role to build his fame knowing he will go out in style.

Everyone focuses on him while Hillary and Bernie beat each other up.

DNC gears up and makes all plans around going against him.

Trump bows out with a "respectable" excuse like medical issues- leaving the race more famous with a bigger brand and intact ego.

New fresh candidate is up who has not faced months of scrutiny and who the DNC hasn't prepared to fight.

[seabeckind]

40. I agree. I think it's all been a con.

Not necessarily one instituted by Trump. (note to self... get more foil)

See my post above:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=7937461

I know this doesn't play well to the Trump's a poopyhead campaign, but...

[Winston.Smith]

17. Romney

[winetourdriver]

48. Romney

I agree, it's going to be Romney. He has made some statements so far, but is mainly laying low..

[Winston.Smith]

51. Tells you he is smart, staying in his bomb shelter while everyone else is playing catch with

lit sticks of dynamite.

[Else You Are Mad]

101. Given the choice between Romney, Ryan or Trump

Romney is the least likely I think. He is a rich insider that the Trump horde will never vote for. Both may be rich, but he is the very definition of a political establishment insider.

My guess is if not Trump, then Ryan because he has more tea party appeal than Romney.

[AllyCat]

90. The biggest thing that sunk Rmoney before was

That 47% video. If that doesn't happen again, maybe they think he can do it.

[Winston.Smith]

95. The 47% worked against a person portrayed as a civic organizer, but against

a person portrayed as a Wall Street person. I don't think the 47% comment would do anything but help Romney.

[TheCowsCameHome]

18. Welcome aboard.

I've been saying that for months.

No way will Donald Trump reach election day, for a number of possible reasons.

[Lithos]

22. He's the Music Man

Professor Harold Hill - a self-proclaimed expert and braggart.

Basically he's a con man who came in to bilk some money, get some attention and then leaving before people realized they were conned. But, the story blew up and he's now fully in the limelight and only able to go deeper into the con as there is no exit which won't pop the balloon he's constructed. Unless there is some scandal which will pop the balloon, he'll keep adding more and more hot air to keep the game going.

L-

[cali]

27. Hi, Lithos. Awfully nice to see you.

I think the bubble has already popped but we just haven't seen the fallout yet- or something like that. Until the past couple of days I thought he'd make it to November, thin skin, lack of discipline, lack of intelligence and all. There is so much coming down the pike at him, I don't think his thin skinned gigantic ego will be able to take it.

[cyberswede]

23. ...and unfortunately, whoever *is* the nominee will seem reasonable in comparison.

I'm thinking they'll pull JEB! out of mothballs and present him as the grownup who can save the GOP.

[exboyfil]

76. I can't see Jeb

Romney makes a lot more sense. He has far less baggage (his last name is not Bush).

[ProfessorGAC]

135. Jeb Obviates The "Legacy" Card

So, like the other poster, i don't see it being him. Takes a whole campaign wedge out of their hands.

[muriel_volestrangler]

28. But he wrote his doctor's assessment of his health as "astonishingly excellent"

his "physical strength and stamina are extraordinary," and "the healthiest individual ever elected to the presidency". Since Trump wrote that and paid the doctor good money to sign it, making up something about health will look like another failure.

[seabeckind]

62. Until that unknown heart blockage shows up.

Couple stents.

Mortality moment.

[greymattermom]

129. That's so obvious

No doctor writes like that. It's not even medical terminology.

[Adrahil]

29. I admit that I've been a doubter about the Dump Trump movement.

I still think it won't happen. But day-um. That campaign is a dumpster fire. No staff, no money, constant infighting and maybe the worst candidate in modern history.

If they DO dump him, it could mean an all-out civil war in the GOP.... good for us! Hopefully that will help down-ballot races.

[seabeckind]

69. Just think how much the RNC has sunk into the campaigns.

Mind boggling.

[patricia92243]

30. On morning Joe, one of the guests said if the GOP could just make to July 8, everything will be

ok. That means no Trump.

I still think it will be Jeb. With all the Bush kin, they can throw a campaign together quickly and Jeb still has the money he first raised in the primaries.

[lapfog_1]

136. in a sample poll asking repukes who should replace Drumpf

Jeb was at 4%, not anywhere close to the top 5

[In_The_Wind]

31. The latest allegations of Trump having sex with a 13 year old may be his undoing.

[cali]

33. I don't think it is or will be any one thing- it's a trumpster full of shit

[In_The_Wind]

39. He started out full of it. He has become more unhinged as time passes. Clearly, not able to deal ...

with pressure. He cannot be trusted to make decisions or act in the best interest of America.

[cali]

42. good point. the fuckwit can't deal with the pressures of the campaign

how on earth could he deal with pressures of actually being president? One shudders at the mere thought.

[beachbum bob]

32. trump will not bow out...thats more humilating than staying in...and GOP will destroy themselves if

they steal the nomination from trump....trump supporters will give the GOP the big FU....and sit out or vote for hillary or johnson


they are doomed no matter how this plays and how sweet it will be to experience....we have to take congress back...

[cali]

34. I think it would be far more humilitating for him to stay in

and not only be beaten to shit day in and day out for months but to have all your filthy secrets publicized.

but yeah, they're doomed no matter what.

[BootinUp]

36. Betting markets say 86% chance its still Trump

Nate Silver ?@NateSilver538 23h23 hours ago

Betting markets now give Trump a 14% chance of NOT being the GOP nominee. That's higher than it was before Indiana. http://bit.ly/1PEDmVl

[seabeckind]

70. You know, I lost $6 on that dam Exaggerator. n/t

[Cary]

37. Who cares?

Republicans are imploding. Enjoy the show, but don't sit back. We have an incredible opportunity to completely demoralize "conservatism." I don't feel the least bit sorry for them either. This is their well earned comeuppance.

And I hope we can break their obstruction. We have important work to do.

[cali]

38. Most of us. It's interesting to watch on so many levels for so many reasons

And no one here feels sorry for them.

[Cary]

103. Much more than interesting

Watch. The SCOTUS is absolutely critical. If we can reverse that so many dominoes fall.

Apparently "conservatives" understood this way better than we did.

[Cary]

104. But it doesn't matter now if he is nominated.

They're screwed either way and they know it.

[malthaussen]

41. I'm content to just wait and see.

Usually, when a writer in a book or a screenplay writes some variation on "he's crazy, his actions don't have to make sense," I am unconvinced, because crazyness often has its own internal logic that makes perfect sense, when examined. But with Mr Trump, I can find no satisfactory structure onto which I can hang his actions: he appears to me to have mounted a tiger with the only objective of seeing how far he can take it. A con man who has gotten so wrapped up in his con, he's just going with the flow and pushing it with every utterance. Possibly there is method to his madness, but it is impenetrable to me.

But it's not all about Trump. The GOP is in significant disarray, as their expectations have been wholly blown out of the water by what has occurred in the primaries. No one with a speck of credibility to the people who own the party could scratch up the slightest interest with the voters. The Dems, OTOH, despite some minor ripples on the way to the nomination of their preferred candidate, have what they wanted and really only need to paper over the cracks in the wallpaper. A case can be made that the GOP's walls are really crumbling, and will need more than cosmetic surgery to perpetuate the myth of Business as Usual. How they scramble to do this, while maintaining a facade that all is well in the best of all possible worlds, is going to interact in interesting ways with the massive ego and narcissism (and vindictiveness and raw power, let's not forget those) of the presumptive candidate.

-- Mal

[The_Commonist]

44. I've been saying for months that the October Surprise...

...will be a Donald Trump "health emergency." Probably in the form of a mild heart attack while schtupping his supermodel wife. That would allow him an out, and an opportunity to "save face" by "being virile." If you look at the man, he certainly appears ready for his first heart attack, any minute now. Melania-tears photo-ops would garner him some sympathy, and his supporters would understand that he has to drop out of the race.

In my mind, the real question now is whether it happens before the convention, giving the GOP an opportunity to replace him. Or, if he really has set out to destroy the Republican party (his behavior indicates that this could be a possibility), and it happens after the convention. Either way, Trump will NOT win the White House. His heart just isn't in it.

[vi5]

45. We better hope not.....

I'd like to think that all the trump-bots would be pissed and not vote for whoever they select as the nominee instead of him. But if Trump has shown anything it's that a large enough chunk of Republicans will vote for whoever the candidate is that has an R after their name, no matter who they are or what they actually stand for.

So anyone who is not Trump is going to draw in those "never trump" folks, few as they may be. That will take our marginal lead and turn it back into a dead heat.

[rjsquirrel]

57. Either way democrats stand to win huge

Or is that yuuuuuuuuuuuge?

Hillary just needs to play it smart. Steady hand, conservative level of aggression, positive messaging, let her surrogates beat on Trump, rise above, appeal to disaffected professional class republicans and independents, control your media appearances carefully, and speak in concerned ways for the other party's situation, without any premature gloating. Register voters. Build your outreach operation and data operation quietly but massively to leverage your funding advantage, own the airwaves in swing states. It's all presidential politics 101. Being in competent command of a large and successful campaign is a key audition for the job you are seeking. President Obama did it very well and it netted him a lot of support I think.

The GOP brought this on itself over 40 years. Let it burn.

ETA raise money like crazy to take back the house.

[liberal N proud]

63. Unless they have someone phenomenal they can pull out of the bag, I think the GOP is screwed

Keep Trump and get their asses handed to them in November.
Put someone else in his place who doesn't have campaign resources ready and moving will be very difficult to overcome and they will still get beat in November.

We have thought others would self destruct well ahead of when they finally dropped out. His ego may be too big for him to drop out and if the GOP pisses him off, he will fuck them so bad, they will walk funny for years.

[pangaia]

66. I have felt for weeks-4-5 for sure, probably several months - that he would not be the nominee.

My guess is he will quit...probably in a big huff.

[seabeckind]

73. I agree.

I think we have yet to see who the true opponent will be.

Nobody we've seen on a national stage yet.

A rising star who hasn't had a leading role yet.

[blm]

71. Expected him to drop out last year, turned out wrong then, but still don't see him in through Nov

I just don't - narcissistic frauds will almost always turn tail or drop out on their own.

[Craig234]

75. So many possible theories

1. He's clueless and incompetent (much evidence)

2. He's sabotaging the Republican Party

3. He has some plan for his loss to be turned into a permanent 'cause' fueling his new media business there are reports he wants to start.

4. He never intended to get this far but ego means continuing - but feeling free to say what he wants and happy to lose.

[TexasMommaWithAHat]

77. I agree. The media is now going to take him out.

Imo, it's been obvious that many of the women (at least) on CNN are Hillary supporters. MSNBC was certainly not behind him. They've given Trump the rope, and now they will watch him hang himself.

Imo, corporate media has never and does not support this fool. This whole debacle has been about ratings, first, and getting Hillary elected, second.

It was a brilliant strategy. Now, watch as the media rips him to shreds!

[seabeckind]

80. Good thread. Thanks.

[spinbaby]

84. But we WANT him to be the nominee

The Donald in the race would be handing Hillary the win on a silver platter.

[cali]

87. I personally just want him to vanish

I see him as the ugliest part of our national id, unleashed. I think he's already done tremendous damage.

And I think it's too late for the republicans to win no matter who they replace him with. Millions of Trumpsters won't vote for the nominee if it's not the Trumpster himself.

[jalan48]

85. First Reagan showed us the government doesn't work, now our elections don't work.

Looks like we need to go back to a monarchy where the well-to-do decide what's best for everyone. Less messy!

[IronLionZion]

96. I'm sure Trump doesn't actually want it

but his supporters are not going to let this go without a fight and just accept another candidate at this point. They have bought into his propaganda. Another candidate just won't inspire the same emotions that got them to vote for him.

They want to make America white again and are not willing to accept the fact that diversity makes this country great. Diversity also helps insulate us from situations like 1930s Germany. Sure they want forced deportations, but they can't accept just how many people out there look like immigrants but are born and raised all-American US citizens who vote.

[world wide wally]

100. IF he does drop out, you know it will be well orchestrated and he will do it before their

convention. Remember that $5 billion he mentioned?
Now he may be worth much closer to the $10 billion he bragged about earlier.
No way he will put the screws to them.

[kairos12]

105. Potrumpkin Village.

I think he still gets it. The Reich Wing can't have Drump nutters with guns overtake their convention. They crapped the bed huuuge and now they have to soil their normally white, eye hole infested sheets.

[underpants]

106. RogueTrooper posted this elsewhere.

[AgingAmerican]

107. I have never seen him as a serious candidate

And this election is beginning to cost him money, vacancies at his properties, etc.

[Android3.14]

108. Romney will be the Great White Hope

Trump will have a health issue, or he may even pull a Cartman (Screw you guys. I'm goin' home).

[WinkyDink]

130. Because a proven loser would be better?

[Android3.14]

140. At this point, for the GOP, a cardboard cutout of Dwight Schrute would be better than Trump

I have nothing good to say about Romney. The fact is he came within four points to beating Obama, one of the most popular newcomers to hit the campaign trail. Thank providence he had to challenge Obama. If Romney had been facing Hillary in 2012, he would be up for re-election in 2016.

So yes, I think the GOP leadership would pick a proven loser, especially when that loser would have to face this particular presumptive Democratic Party candidate.

The other side of this is that a terrorist attack on American soil would spring Trump back up the polls. We have a long way to go to November.

[CaptainTruth]

109. Trump has lost dozens of times, look at all his failed business ventures.

He doesn't, however, usually quit.

To someone with his ego quitting is far worse than losing. Quitting would be HIS decision, admitting to himself he can't win. His ego won't let him do that. When he loses he can blame it on everyone else & keep telling himself he would have won if only things had been "fair" & he hadn't been "cheated." He can hold on to the illusion (in his own mind) that he's really a winner, his victory was just stolen from him by the evil "others" who cause all the problems. (Sound familiar?)

[cali]

114. He's "quit" dozens of times.

And he has NEVER been in the public eye like this. I think it's his ego that won't allow him to be pummeled and mocked day in and day out for months. And as I said, his campaign really is nothing but a Potemkin Village that is crumbling as we watch. Who is going to step in to save the day for him?

[trumad]

110. Good post

[secondwind]

112. welcome aboard... the signs are there for all to see.. the RNC isn't shy about this.

[jeanmarc]

117. lol, he just told the RNC that they can do all the fundraising for his campaign!

No Donald, you're supposed to do that. RNC was your last lifeline.

Trump is going to get Dumped at the convention.

[yardwork]

118. I believe that he will be the Republican nominee.

I don't think that the GOP can stop him.

They'll try to clean him up. Watch them blame his former campaign manager.

[NoMoreRepugs]

119. What happens to the 14million T-Rump primary voters???

I'd have to believe the GOP risks alienating a fair portion of them if they perceive the Rump was forced out in any way - and these are voters almost guaranteed to vote in the general come November.

This possibly more than any other factor is why I think 'He's the Guy'....

[bucolic_frolic]

125. Narcissists

as they age will go to ever more grandiose schemes to maintain their
sense of prominence, importance, superiority

When the effectiveness of these schemes run out it is a very rude
awakening

Notice how bombastic Scalia's briefs became over the last couple of
years - off the charts with alliteration lingo and twists of grammar and legal
somersaults

Don't know what Donald does - more hair? Grandiose business schemes?

I can't see him losing this election graciously

I'm expecting a deficit financed plan to takeover the US Government
and give everyone a permanent tax rebate if you'll just let him run
things

Go big or go home

[still_one]

126. The GOP is split on their nominee. according to a CNN poll, republican and republican-leaning

voters, 51% say the party should nominate Trump, 48% would prefer someone else. While that indicates a split party, it also indicates that 51% support trump as their nominee, so it will be extremely difficult for those republicans who want a different nominee to break through that support.

Whether this poll is truly representative or not is a valid point, but if it is, then Trump is going to be their nominee.

[redstatebluegirl]

127. I have been there for a while now.

Kind of scares me, in my mind I think they will go with Romney. He will gladly throw himself out there again thinking he can win. I don't think Paul Ryan will do it unless he thinks it is a slam dunk, I see him in 2020.

Cruz is like Trump, it is all about him. He might do it, I have read and heard that he is really working the delegates, never really stopped. He scares me more than Trumper does.

Their convention will be popcorn and beer nights for sure. What a weird year, a political scientists dream, they will be studying this year forever.

[WinkyDink]

128. I think it would be a mistake to underestimate Trump's ego, esp. at this stage of the game. He WILL

be the nominee. The Republican Party does not want to risk having their own "Chicago '68."

[cali]

131. I'm not. As I said in the OP, I think it's his enormous, fragile ego that

won't be able to handle months of what we've seen over the past few days.

And at this point, the Ryans and McConnell's know they're screwed.

[WinkyDink]

139. My money says "The Now TRUMPS the Future." Giving up is, IMO, not in DT's constitution.

[CrispyQ]

132. I have a friend who has stuck to this claim since day one.

She says he'll take it to the convention to get the most amount of attention. He'll step down, "for the good of the party," & encourage his supporters to vote for the GOP nominee to beat "corrupt Hillary."

I don't see him making it to November.

[GreatGazoo]

133. you saw the Apple + Tim Ryan story ?

Apple CEO Tim Cook Says 'No' To Donald Trump But 'Yes' To Paul Ryan

http://fortune.com/2016/06/20/apple-ceo-tim-cook-says-no-to-donald-trump-but-yes-to-paul-ryan/

[Bucky]

137. He's been good for popcorn sales

[Ford_Prefect]

138. If Trump is not the nominee (by whatever means) who then are they planning for?

Who have they got who can run? Who has enough stature outside the Tea Party to draw other voters than the 27% fringe. Who has not disgraced themselves in the primary, or by stating some Trumpian absurdity?

Don't tell me Graham, he lost once and there are many in his party who haven't forgiven him that, not to mention he's a bit too much like Trump. Ryan is possible but not quite main stream enough (IMO). Kaisch fell on his own sword and might be VP material. They need a brand name they can sell, don't forget that.

Who's on the list and what have they got that makes them viable? The party insiders have certainly decided who and how, even if we think their choices are shamefully toxic.

[Ineeda]

141. Bearing in mind several recent well-publicized threats and attempts to kill

tRump...coincidence? Maybe not. Maybe it's setting the groundwork. Let's say they find some poor desperate, down-on-his-luck schmuck who is offered a boatload of cash to "take care of his family" if he's caught and convicted, but also promising a not-guilty verdict via the best lawyers money can buy (along with doctors to jump on board with an insanity diagnosis.) They could even blow this volunteer away with impunity. A scary close call could 'convince' tRump to drop out and still save face. He might risk the potential of being called a coward, but in all reality, who wouldn't?
So,
signed, a fan of John Le Carre, et al

[Captain Stern]

142. I think Trump wants the nomination to be "stolen" from him at the convention.

That's the best thing that can happen to him. He wouldn't risk suffering a humiliating defeat in the election, and he wouldn't be running the risk of accidentally becoming President, and actually having to do President stuff for four years. And, if he's denied the nomination, he can still claim that he really would have won bigly if he hadn't been cheated.

[PDittie]

145. The people elected him

resoundingly, so if the elites try to remove him, there's going to be a full-scale actual shooting revolution on the right, with real blood and lots of bodies.

Trump is going to be the nominee, and he's going to get flushed in November. Bank it.

[Martin Eden]

147. The Republican convention is in 4 weeks. Will Trump drop out before then?

I sincerely doubt it. His ego and his spitefulness will "trump" any rational consideration the Donald might otherwise entertain.

The question is whether the Republican establishment will rewrite the convention rules to allow pledged delegates to vote how they please on the first ballot.

I'm not ruling that out completely. It may hinge on how unhinged Trump's remarks are between now and then.

[Puglover]

152. I was just thinking this.

His numbers will (and ARE) tanking. His massive ego will not entertain the idea of losing and the party big wigs will get him in a room for a meeting of the minds(?).

I dunno but I would bet a remade Mittens.

[arcane1]

153. He doesn't even WANT to be president.

[RAFisher]

154. Trump will be the nominee

The polls show that the GOP voters like this raving lunatic. I believe the political damage would be worse if they somehow could stop Trump. When Trump loses in November the GOP establishment will use it as an example of what to never do again. It will be a test case showing how disastrous this sort of candidate can be. However if the take the nomination away from Trump I think that would destroy the party, literally. It it alienate half of the party for a generation.

[lame54]

155. And yet another Trump prediction

[floriduck]

156. The reason I don't think the GOP powers will allow Trump to be the nominee is due to his

unpredictability and his ongoing racist remarks. Republicans like to keep their racism more subtle. And Trump just throws it out there. His attitudes towards anyone other than ignorant whites males is extremely poor.

If he is allowed to run, it not only hands the Presidency to the Democrats this year. It destroys what's left of their party for years to come. Therefore, I think a move will be made to get a more moderate Republican to take his place. How they do that remains to be seen. But the dangers at play with Donald Trump are far too risky to allow to happen.

[Wednesdays]

157. Maybe...

But what would be the point of his changing campaign managers, then?

[Stinky The Clown]

158. Trump lives in a bubble. He thinks he's doing great.

He won't drop out until his kids tell him to.

[cali]

159. I don't think that he thinks he's doing great. I think he's freaked.

[shanti]

160. I've felt this way from the get go

To me, it has the same feeling as the official 9/11 story - a steaming pile of shit meant to distract.

[Lee-Lee]

162. I saw a report just now that he only has 1.3m in campaign cash compared to Hillaries 43m

That's not just bad. It's shockingly bad.

Like it has to be intentional bad.

The fat cat GOP donors have to have been warned to save thier cash for the real nominee.

[cali]

163. I have no clue as to what that campaign is up to. Far more importantly,

neither do they- whoever they is.