General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsEarly BREXIT results: "LEAVE" unexpectedly strong in first reporting districts...
Correspondents around the country reporting expectations of high "LEAVE" results in many districts.
Live coverage on BBC WORLD NEWS
oswaldactedalone
(3,491 posts)with 2 per cent of precincts reporting (as best I can determine.) Don't know the terminology of "5/382 declared."
NuclearDem
(16,184 posts)oswaldactedalone
(3,491 posts)Lead drops to 9600.
oswaldactedalone
(3,491 posts)Leave up by 7000. Not looking good for Remain.
NuclearDem
(16,184 posts)Same with Scotland, but it depends on how strong the turnout is up there.
brooklynite
(94,728 posts)Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)What were the odds?!?!?
greatauntoftriplets
(175,750 posts)Denzil_DC
(7,257 posts)Richmond 82.1%
Sutton 76%
Merton 73.5%
City 73%
Wandsworth 72%
Islington 70.4%
Ealing 70.1%
Lambeth 67.4%
Not bad at all.
DemFromPittsburgh
(102 posts)oswaldactedalone
(3,491 posts)This election is rigged.
tritsofme
(17,399 posts)This just in from the polling expert John Curtice:
[blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"][p lang="en" dir="ltr"]John Curtice: At the moment at least the Leave side are favourites to win this Referendum - but there is still a very long way to go. [a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/EUref?src=hash"]#EUref[/a]
[script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"][/script]
The University of East Anglia's referendum live blog predicts, on the basis of the first five results, that there will be a narrow win for Leave.
Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0.48 (5 of 382 areas reporting.)
Predicted vote share for Remain: 49.8 percent.
(90% prediction interval: 42.7 to 56.8 percent)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/23/eu-referendum-will-it-be-brexit-exit-poll-and-results-live/
Night Watchman
(743 posts)oswaldactedalone
(3,491 posts)to 3000. 50.2% to 49.8%.
Must be cool to be the official "counting officer."
oswaldactedalone
(3,491 posts)and I have to say their news set has great visual appeal. Big win in Hartlepool for Brexit.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)I suspect they were not as motivated as the leave voters. Its a shame because if they vote to leave its probably going to get ugly for the Brits.
Corporate666
(587 posts)Very little will change.
The UK doesn't leave the EU tomorrow, it's a long, long process.
The UK existed long before the EU and will exist long after. They always had their own currency and their own parliament.. trade deals need renegotiated, but with the UK being the #2 economy in the EU, neither side can afford to try to bully the other into an one-sided deal, so whatever deal was worked out would largely resemble exactly what is in place already.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)It will complicate all sorts of things in the short term.
Corporate666
(587 posts)I think a lot of Americans have a fundamental misunderstanding about the EU and how the member states relate to each other, and what the mechanics of a Brexit will mean.
The UK already has their own currency. They do not use the Euro. The uncertainty is largely about what the trade deals will be and those deals will be worked out over a period of years, not months or weeks or days. And the uncertainty will be relatively small, because the UK already trades with lots of nations, as does the EU, and nobody involved wants to penalize the other for "misbehaving".
The UK will regain more sovereignty over their borders. Something will have to be worked out in terms of trade, but not much else is going to change.
I think some here think this is like California leaving the USA. It isn't.
Ruby the Liberal
(26,219 posts)with a fraction of the vote in and still tied.
Corporate666
(587 posts)Not to mention, most of the trading world is still asleep, whereas the people who were making big bets were watching like a hawk, and most of them moved quickly to limit their losses. In other words, due to low volume, volatility is high.
We shall see what happens tomorrow - it's likely tomorrow will represent the largest drop (and will be more than 5%) and the GBP will drop in comparison to the dollar. That will be excellent for UK exports, and the UK is suffering a widening trade gap.
Ruby the Liberal
(26,219 posts)But you're probably right. No reaction to Leave at all. Nothing will happen for years if the vote tonight is to go.
LOL
Corporate666
(587 posts)But the only LOL is directed at the chicken littles who are predicting global economic meltdown, war, dissolution of the EU, ruined economies, mobs of roving racists hanging muslims from lightposts and the like.
What a bunch of shite.
Nobody really expected a Brexit, so it hasn't been priced into the currency. There's more volatility now because the markets are currently closed and you have traders getting their orders in before market opening either on the basis of speculation or to unwind trades that were placed previously.
The effect of the UK leaving a trade union when that transition happens over the course of years is going to be much smaller than the aforementioned chicken littles are afraid of.
oswaldactedalone
(3,491 posts)Leave stretching the lead to over 140,000.
brooklynite
(94,728 posts)(this would expectantly end Cameron's Govt, likely in favor of Boris Johnson)
still_one
(92,396 posts)that the Leave referendum will probably win, and Britain will move to the right
Hopefully, that won't be the case
I still have my fingers crossed
brooklynite
(94,728 posts)Ruby the Liberal
(26,219 posts)I thought the polls were calling for a statistical tie going in?
flamingdem
(39,321 posts)nuts.. they were expecting "Remain" lately
brooklynite
(94,728 posts)Takket
(21,625 posts)Purveyor
(29,876 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)still_one
(92,396 posts)Metric System
(6,048 posts)Response to Metric System (Reply #28)
Name removed Message auto-removed
uppityperson
(115,679 posts)hobby might be more fulfilling.
davidn3600
(6,342 posts)Politically....this is very serious regardless how this vote turns out. An increasing number of people are angry with the status quo. That's something that cannot continue to be ignored.
NuclearDem
(16,184 posts)scapegoating the EU for the results of their disastrous austerity policies.
Nevernose
(13,081 posts)Hortensis
(58,785 posts)Takket
(21,625 posts)3,714,405 leave
3,744,632 remain
my goodness
Florida 2000 called. they said to make sure you punch your chad