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TeddyR

(2,493 posts) Sun Jul 17, 2016, 01:20 PM Jul 2016

538's take on the state of the race

Nate has Hillary's win chances at 65% but thinks there is a "high" or "very high" level of uncertainty in the outcome. PA, OH and FL are the key states and all three are close. He thinks Hillary should be concerned that these states are so close after the money spent there. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-10-questions-about-where-the-2016-race-stands/

3 replies

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538's take on the state of the race (Original Post) TeddyR Jul 2016 OP

I'd prefer 100%, but I'll take 65% over 35% and day. N.T. Donald Ian Rankin Jul 2016 #1

No worries. That's just the media trying to make this a horserace Android3.14 Jul 2016 #2

Take 538's analysis more seriously than the general media spew. Big Blue Marble Jul 2016 #3

Donald Ian Rankin

(13,598 posts)

1. I'd prefer 100%, but I'll take 65% over 35% and day. N.T.

Reply to TeddyR (Original post)

Sun Jul 17, 2016, 01:25 PM

Jul 2016

Android3.14

(5,402 posts)

2. No worries. That's just the media trying to make this a horserace

Reply to TeddyR (Original post)

Sun Jul 17, 2016, 01:37 PM

Jul 2016

Right?

Big Blue Marble

(5,666 posts)

3. Take 538's analysis more seriously than the general media spew.

Reply to Android3.14 (Reply #2)

Sun Jul 17, 2016, 02:39 PM

Jul 2016

Their predictive models are carefully designed to eliminate the media noise all around us.
Anyone who does not think there is much uncertainty of the outcome, has not been paying
attention. Right now the odds are leaning in Clinton's favor. That is good, but it is
a long and problematic path to victory in November.

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