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Fri Jul 29, 2016, 02:16 PM

New Reuters poll: Hillary Clinton six points ahead! Yeah!

July 29, 2016

Hillary Clinton 40.5%

Donald Trump 34.6%

Other/Wouldn't vote/refused 24.9%


http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TM651Y15_DS_13/filters/LIKELY:1/type/smallest/dates/20160710-20160729/collapsed/true/spotlight/1

16 replies, 1761 views

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Arrow 16 replies Author Time Post
Reply New Reuters poll: Hillary Clinton six points ahead! Yeah! (Original post)
Doodley Jul 2016 OP
citood Jul 2016 #1
Loki Liesmith Jul 2016 #2
JaneQPublic Jul 2016 #3
Rustyeye77 Jul 2016 #4
stopbush Jul 2016 #7
Johnny2X2X Jul 2016 #5
piechartking Jul 2016 #6
Wellstone ruled Jul 2016 #8
muriel_volestrangler Jul 2016 #10
auntpurl Jul 2016 #11
muriel_volestrangler Jul 2016 #12
auntpurl Jul 2016 #13
Wellstone ruled Jul 2016 #14
Amishman Jul 2016 #16
backscatter712 Jul 2016 #9
spanone Jul 2016 #15

Response to Doodley (Original post)

Fri Jul 29, 2016, 02:23 PM

1. Interesting in how "other' is gaining ground

...at the time of the conventions?

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Response to citood (Reply #1)

Fri Jul 29, 2016, 02:25 PM

2. Convention scared people from Trump

potentially

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Response to citood (Reply #1)

Fri Jul 29, 2016, 02:29 PM

3. Perhaps "Undecided" is the first step of a transition to Hillary. (nt)

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Fri Jul 29, 2016, 02:30 PM

4. I'd be happier if she was 30 points ahead.

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Response to Rustyeye77 (Reply #4)

Fri Jul 29, 2016, 02:56 PM

7. Thankfully, most people don't set historically high and arbitrary bars

to determine whether they're happy with poll numbers. Obama led Romney by 1.9-2.6 points in July 2012. Hillary is double to triple that gap over Trump.

A 30-point gap will never happen, ever.

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Fri Jul 29, 2016, 02:34 PM

5. Great news

I want to see her up 6-7 in the RCP by next week.

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Fri Jul 29, 2016, 02:37 PM

6. Bounce baby bounce

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Fri Jul 29, 2016, 02:56 PM

8. The Other/Wouldn't is interesting.

 

Tried to find Reuters Methodology,wanted to find the Q&A no luck. Awful large segment at this stage,should be 10-15% .

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Response to Wellstone ruled (Reply #8)

Fri Jul 29, 2016, 05:46 PM

10. Here's the topline results:

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=15793

Suprisingly, when Johnson and Stein are mentioned, the split among likely voters changes from Hillary 40%, Trump 35% to a tie at 37%, with Johnson getting 5% and Stein 1%.

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Response to muriel_volestrangler (Reply #10)

Fri Jul 29, 2016, 06:11 PM

11. Wait, that makes no sense. Johnson is taking voters from Hillary?

They are diametrically opposed.

God, people are stupid.

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Response to auntpurl (Reply #11)

Fri Jul 29, 2016, 06:16 PM

12. It's hard to figure; it could just be the margin of error

(my reading is that they asked half of the sample just Clinton/Trump, and the other half the 4 candidates). Or it could be that there are a few Republicans who want to vote against Trump, and would do so with Hillary if they had to, but when reminded of Johnson, say "oh yeah, I can vote for him and still respect myself".

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Response to muriel_volestrangler (Reply #12)

Fri Jul 29, 2016, 06:18 PM

13. Ah yes, that makes more sense.

Well reasoned, thanks.

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Response to auntpurl (Reply #13)

Fri Jul 29, 2016, 07:19 PM

14. Without the metrics,this poll has

 

more questions that answers. It is a given,the News Media and appears the wire services are working their Horse Race Crap again. Tell us whom did you contact,how were these contacts made,what day time of day did you make contact,was the contact list a bought mail phone list,or did you use Registered Voters list from County Clerks. Like I mentioned afore,did some polling via phone and do know the nuances used.

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Response to auntpurl (Reply #11)

Fri Jul 29, 2016, 07:31 PM

16. not diametrically opposed in all areas. There is overlap on some social issues.

Abortion, gay rights, etc

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Fri Jul 29, 2016, 02:56 PM

9. Still waiting to see how the poll-aggregators turn out.

It's too early for Hillary's convention bounce to show up in the Princeton model or 538, but so far, I'm pretty damned optimistic.

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Response to Doodley (Original post)

Fri Jul 29, 2016, 07:27 PM

15. too early for a 'bounce'....good news

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