New Reuters poll: Hillary Clinton six points ahead! Yeah!

[Doodley]

July 29, 2016

Hillary Clinton 40.5%

Donald Trump 34.6%

Other/Wouldn't vote/refused 24.9%


http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TM651Y15_DS_13/filters/LIKELY:1/type/smallest/dates/20160710-20160729/collapsed/true/spotlight/1

[citood]

1. Interesting in how "other' is gaining ground

...at the time of the conventions?

[Loki Liesmith]

2. Convention scared people from Trump

potentially

[JaneQPublic]

3. Perhaps "Undecided" is the first step of a transition to Hillary. (nt)

[Rustyeye77]

4. I'd be happier if she was 30 points ahead.

[stopbush]

7. Thankfully, most people don't set historically high and arbitrary bars

to determine whether they're happy with poll numbers. Obama led Romney by 1.9-2.6 points in July 2012. Hillary is double to triple that gap over Trump.

A 30-point gap will never happen, ever.

[Johnny2X2X]

5. Great news

I want to see her up 6-7 in the RCP by next week.

[piechartking]

6. Bounce baby bounce

[Wellstone ruled]

8. The Other/Wouldn't is interesting.

Tried to find Reuters Methodology,wanted to find the Q&A no luck. Awful large segment at this stage,should be 10-15% .

[muriel_volestrangler]

10. Here's the topline results:

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=15793

Suprisingly, when Johnson and Stein are mentioned, the split among likely voters changes from Hillary 40%, Trump 35% to a tie at 37%, with Johnson getting 5% and Stein 1%.

[auntpurl]

11. Wait, that makes no sense. Johnson is taking voters from Hillary?

They are diametrically opposed.

God, people are stupid.

[muriel_volestrangler]

12. It's hard to figure; it could just be the margin of error

(my reading is that they asked half of the sample just Clinton/Trump, and the other half the 4 candidates). Or it could be that there are a few Republicans who want to vote against Trump, and would do so with Hillary if they had to, but when reminded of Johnson, say "oh yeah, I can vote for him and still respect myself".

[auntpurl]

13. Ah yes, that makes more sense.

Well reasoned, thanks.

[Wellstone ruled]

14. Without the metrics,this poll has

more questions that answers. It is a given,the News Media and appears the wire services are working their Horse Race Crap again. Tell us whom did you contact,how were these contacts made,what day time of day did you make contact,was the contact list a bought mail phone list,or did you use Registered Voters list from County Clerks. Like I mentioned afore,did some polling via phone and do know the nuances used.

[Amishman]

16. not diametrically opposed in all areas. There is overlap on some social issues.

Abortion, gay rights, etc

[backscatter712]

9. Still waiting to see how the poll-aggregators turn out.

It's too early for Hillary's convention bounce to show up in the Princeton model or 538, but so far, I'm pretty damned optimistic.

[spanone]

15. too early for a 'bounce'....good news