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Mon Aug 1, 2016, 10:01 PM

 

In Play Senate Seats (DEM = 1, GOP = 13)

KEY
Possible pickup means slim, but a chance to pickup the seat.
Likely pickup means moderate chance to pick up the seat.
Strong pickup means the seat will more than likely flip.

DEM
Nevada - open seat. More than likely a GOP pickup unless the GOTV is there. Likely loss

GOP
AK - Murkowski is in serious trouble. National GOP doesn't like here and she is unpopular in Alaska. Possible Pickup

AZ - McCain is in the fight of his political life. The state GOP has swung WAY to the right and the GOP voter has pretty much abandoned him. He is polling near even in Maricopa County. Likely Pickup

FL - Rubio will be the nominee and he is pretty much despised after being exposed in the presidential primary. This is one for the Democrats to lose. Likely Pickup

IL - Kirk is a political dead man walking. Strong pickup

IN - Open seat where the GOP candidate is running against a Democratic political dynasty. Strong pickup

IA - Grassley is polling poorly, but has been an incumbent since the Civil War ended, so that gives him something. Possible Pickup

KY - Paul looked weak in the primary and was completely exposed. Given the purple nature Kentucky has and the fact the McConnell barely held his seat in last election (as majority leader), Paul is in trouble. Likely Pickup

MO - Who would have thought Roy Blunt would be in trouble? He is in deep now and running against a very strong up and comer. But this is Red Missouri. Possible pickup

NH - Ayotte has a problem she hasn't done well dealing with. . .not appearing too Republican in a state the GOP has really lost control of over the last 20 years. She is polling terribly and running against a strong candidate. Strong Pickup

NC - The anger at the GOP in North Carolina can be measured in gigawatts. Burr might not be able to withstand the voter backlash, especially if his opponent can tie him to the insanity of the state GOP. Likely Pickup

OH - Open seat and the OH GOP is in open civil war with itself and the national party. Trump will depress the GOP turnout and the Democrats will pickup the seat. Strong Pickup

PA - Toomey's reign of error is over. Strong Pickup

WI - Wisconsin's mistake of electing this turd will be rectified in November. Strong Pickup

Final Tally
Democrats will more than likely lose Nevada. So the Democrats would be down to 45 seats.

They have a very, very good chance of picking up Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Hampshire, Indiana, and Illinois. This puts the Democrats at 51 seats.

They have a better than average chance of picking up North Carolina, Kentucky, Florida, and Arizona. I figure of the four states, they will pick up two. North Carolina and Arizona are the two with the strongest possibilities for a pickup. This puts the Democrats at 53 seats.

They have a slim chance of picking up Missouri, Iowa, and Alaska. I figure of the three states, the strongest possibility of a pickup is knocking off Blunt in Missouri. This puts the Democrats cat 56 seats.

That would be a net +8 if this happens. It would be a 52 - 44 - 2 senate (as the two independents caucus with the Democrats in King of Maine and Sanders of Vermont).

Best case Senate scenario is the Democrats sweep the battleground and hold Nevada. That would make the Senate 57 - 39 - 2, which would break the GOP filibusters on judges.

Worst case Senate scenario is we lose all the Possibles and Likelys, lose Nevada and pickup all the Strongs. That would make the Senate 49 - 47 - 2.

It is a better than 50% chance the Democrats will pickup the Senate. The House is another story completely. I just don't see it flipping until the next census and apportionment battle that will ensue after the 2020 Census.

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Arrow 11 replies Author Time Post
Reply In Play Senate Seats (DEM = 1, GOP = 13) (Original post)
Feeling the Bern Aug 2016 OP
nixonwasbetterthanW Aug 2016 #1
Feeling the Bern Aug 2016 #3
JennyMominFL Aug 2016 #2
yeoman6987 Aug 2016 #6
lindysalsagal Aug 2016 #4
Wellstone ruled Aug 2016 #5
mountain grammy Aug 2016 #7
Feeling the Bern Aug 2016 #8
AgadorSparticus Aug 2016 #9
krawhitham Aug 2016 #10
OhioBlue Aug 2016 #11

Response to Feeling the Bern (Original post)

Mon Aug 1, 2016, 10:09 PM

1. math is wrong here

Senate now has 46 Democrats, including Sanders and King in their caucus.

That means that if they lose Reid's seat, they're down to 45, not 47. Subsequently, you then need to subtract two D's in each of your totals.

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Response to nixonwasbetterthanW (Reply #1)

Mon Aug 1, 2016, 10:12 PM

3. Okay. Done. But I am a historian getting his PhD, not a math person.

 

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Response to Feeling the Bern (Original post)

Mon Aug 1, 2016, 10:10 PM

2. Rubio

Rubie is polling well down here. It's winnable but it's going to be a lot of work.

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Response to JennyMominFL (Reply #2)

Mon Aug 1, 2016, 11:07 PM

6. Especially since the democratic primary is a mess right now

 

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Response to Feeling the Bern (Original post)

Mon Aug 1, 2016, 10:16 PM

4. I could live with this worst case scenario: Dems get the house!

"Worst case Senate scenario is we lose all the Possibles and Likelys, lose Nevada and pickup all the Strongs. That would make the Senate 51 - 47 - 2."

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Response to Feeling the Bern (Original post)

Mon Aug 1, 2016, 10:59 PM

5. Dems will pick up Reids seat here in Nevada.

 

Do not go by the RJ Newspaper,looked at that poll and it is a very questionable. We just registered 9k new Dems this month and Cortes is hammering Heck with ads state wide. Note to outside of Nevada persons,Adelson controls all but one Newspaper in the State as well as numerous Radio Stations.

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Response to Feeling the Bern (Original post)

Mon Aug 1, 2016, 11:16 PM

7. I can't believe we are even having a discussion like this

with Trump running as the GOP nominee. We should get a clean sweep, coattails a mile long, like 2008.

If the GOP can run someone like Trump at the top and we have to struggle, something is seriously wrong in America.

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Response to mountain grammy (Reply #7)

Mon Aug 1, 2016, 11:26 PM

8. No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American voter.

 

H.L. Menchken.

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Response to Feeling the Bern (Reply #8)

Mon Aug 1, 2016, 11:41 PM

9. SNORT! love the quote.

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Response to Feeling the Bern (Original post)

Tue Aug 2, 2016, 12:33 AM

10. OH is not an open seat and we will most likey lose the race

Portman is up 43% to 38%

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Response to krawhitham (Reply #10)

Tue Aug 2, 2016, 01:09 AM

11. yep -it is an uphill battle and it is not an open seat

Incumbent Portman is running against former Governor Ted Strickland who lost to Kasich in 2010. Polling has Portman ahead.

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