General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsIf a 0.9% HRC advantage on Real Clear Politics today doesn't scare you . . . .
. . . . what does?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
stopbush
(24,396 posts)Sorry, but I just can't get worked up about the polls or anything else that ignores reality.
Orrex
(63,220 posts)+10,000
BlueMTexpat
(15,372 posts)Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)They are data. And these are old data at that.
New data is coming. Focus on that.
Orrex
(63,220 posts)I don't trust them.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)Seriously? Huffingtonpost's is much better.
LenaBaby61
(6,977 posts)I do feel with the health flap Hillary lost a larger lead in the polls.
However, when you average in "weird methodology" "manufactured horse race" polls with better polls, of course Hillary's or anybody's poll numbers will go down.
karynnj
(59,504 posts)had problems. The health issue should completely dissipate as she is now out, looking and sounding healthy. It would be great if the softer tone that she is speaking in, maybe to save her throat, become the voice always used. As can be seen this week, she can say very strong serious things softly .. and they resonate. It also amplifies the difference between a reasonable, intelligent woman and a very out of control, angry, ugly man.
In recent polls taken since Thursday when she reappeared, she is improving.
The other thing to think of is that there is little to throw at her that has not been thoroughly pursued - meaning those negatives are already baked in. Not so with Trump. There is seemingly a new revelation every day. From his charity that gives other people's money .. and some of that inappropriately and illegally to his track record of not paying small businessmen, to his "University" scam, there is a wealth of things that are really NOT already baked in. Imagine commercials using credible real people who were harmed by these actions. They could be students who trusted the Trump brand and spent money and time they couldn't easily replace for something of no value or small businessmen who signed contracts and who were not paid what was agreed on - in some cases destroying previously healthy viable businesses. One consistent fact is that Trump hurt real people, trampling on them and their dreams without a thought of what he was doing.
I suspect the reason we have NOT yet seen such ads is a campaign strategic decision as to when it would be most effective. After all, think of the Kennedy and then Obama attack ads on Romney's Bain Capital sending jobs out of an Indiana town after they bought the company. In both those elections, ads on that really hurt Romney and he, unlike Trump, did not have the support of many people like those harmed. Trump's base includes many of the kind of people that he walked over without one nanosecond of concern.
edhopper
(33,606 posts)the ridiculous LA Times poll? Trump +7
Nate Silver has Hillary wit5h a 61% chance to win.
book_worm
(15,951 posts)close.
Stinky The Clown
(67,818 posts)To those poo-pooing these numbers, maybe you can stop with the "its bullshit" or the more benign "its okay" and start with the "get off your asses and work to get turnout up to a new historic high" message. ANYTHING that motivates action in advance of the election and on election day is a good thing. This election is all about just one word:
T U R N O U T
book_worm
(15,951 posts)Last week HRC had a bad week. There are signs that is changing. I also look at 2012 polls and see how close the MSM/pollsters said it was. I have yet to see any credible national poll having Trump ahead. The PA poll out yesterday giving her +8 is an excellent sign because if Trump is really making a comeback he would be doing better than 32% in PA and that poll was taken after all the bad publicity re: HRC's health. Good Poll out of MN today, too (HRC up by 6--the same pollster had Obama only leading by 3 in MN in their last poll of 2012 and he won by 7.8%).
I feel that she will win by at least as well as Obama and probably even better. In the meanwhile I'm making calls later today for the Democratic ticket here in Wisconsin.
qazplm
(3,626 posts)which was included twice in the last three polls.
Now what's the average?
TheCowsCameHome
(40,168 posts)The fact he is still in the race scares me, actually.
This is not good.
beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)Democrats will come out in droves....3rd party voters will likely change their minds and vote for Hillary as the reality of what a trump presidency will bring to America..will finally seep into their brains
Codeine
(25,586 posts)Small hands. Smell of cabbage.