Serious question - how would a hurricane hitting one or more of the southern states

[malaise]

affect the elections?

[Are_grits_groceries]

1. Depends on where it hit and how bad.

It also would depend on whether any state affected would be able to have an alternative date somehow.
I can't even imagine the hot mess it would be.

[Hortensis]

15. Yes, and any gross failures in response would be blamed

on the current administration -- which is Democratic. That could be bad. Many Republicans still spit when remembering Christie hugging Obama for good electoral reason, not just partisan nastiness.

Thanks for the heads-up, Mal. I've wondered a bit nervously about potential disasters this fall for many months but forgot to be looking now.

[DrDan]

2. seems to me it would potentially delay a state election

during the 2004 hurricane season in Florida, we were evacuated from our house, and the bridge to our beachside residence was shut down for several days. There were several polling places in this area. Residents from here would not be allowed to vote.

[malaise]

5. Thanks - you see most of the models have soon to be Matthew developing

and coming through the Caribbean on a similar route to Ivan in 2004




We'll have better idea after Tuesday

[NightWatcher]

6. Ivan sucked. It kicked Gulf Breeze, FL's ass.

Destroyed half the neighborhood and the other half had to knock down and start all over again.

[malaise]

7. It barely mised us but destroyed the Caymans

and of course wiped out Grenada on his way - weather folks are talking Cat 4 near Jamaica for this one.

[NightWatcher]

8. Everybody hunker down and hope for a miss.

I'll definitely keep an eye on this one.

[dixiegrrrrl]

9. AAIIIEEEEEE!!!!!

Don't say the " I " word, pls!!!

We got a direct hit from Ivan in 2004 here.

[malaise]

11. We got a swipe

Looked like a direct hit was coming and veered west at the last minute. Still don't know how it missed us.
Weather underground folks are saying North West Florida but it's way too early to predict that. What I do know is that we are in that cone.

[dixiegrrrrl]

12. I lived here for some years, then moved away, and did not move back until 2005

so missed Ivan, but could clearly see how much damage it did. So many old oaks were gone, and lots of the tall pines. Most of the trees left are crooked and leaning and over the years since many have either fallen or had to be removed.

When I first moved down South, people were always using Hurricane Frederick as a reference point in time.
Now they use Ivan.

[malaise]

13. I hate losing the old trees but it is part of the cycle of life

Here the reference point was that August 1951 Charlie - now it's Gilbert.

[dixiegrrrrl]

14. Oh yeah...I remember Gilbert....uggggh. n/t

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

3. A lot of people predicted New Jersey would have problems...

.....in 2012....but I heard of none.

[malaise]

4. Good point

but New Jersey is not a southern state

[EL34x4]

10. A hurricane would depress Democratic turnout.

Poorer voters would face additional challenges getting to the polls.

[malaise]

16. I don't know but here's Jeff Masters latest

Air Force Hurricane Hunters were unable to find a closed circulation in the midst of Invest 97L, but the tropical wave was still on the verge of becoming a tropical storm on Tuesday night or Wednesday. After sweeping through the Lesser Antilles, 97L will move through the southeast Caribbean, potentially heading north toward the Greater Antilles, The Bahamas, and the eastern U.S. next week.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/?MR=1

[Ex Lurker]

17. The models are forecasting it to make a sharp northward turn

almost 90 degrees, in the vicinity of Cuba or Hispaniola. Where it makes that turn will determine whether it goes out to sea, goes into the Gulf, or somewhere else. One model has it riding the Gulf Stream up the entire eastern seaboard, which would be a nightmare scenario. But, any forecast beyond about 5 days is mere speculation, so we'll just have to wait and see.

To your original question: November storms are rare, and strong November storms even more so. Anything is possible, but the more likely scenario is an earlier storm, and people still dealing with the aftermath. Think about Katrino, Rita, or even Sandy in an election year. People displaced, polling stations nonfunctional, maybe a regional warehouse flooded and all the voting machines destroyed.

Heck, if the Louisiana floods had been just a month or so later, this could be the scenario now. There are still people out of there homes from that.

[malaise]

18. Yes this is wait and see

We're sure waiting and watching in Jamaica. The most accurate model - the Euro says we will take a hit.