How Much Damage Did the Debate Do to Donald Trump? - The New Yorker

[ffr]

The reviews are in, and they are virtually unanimous: Donald Trump had a horrible debate on Monday night against Hillary Clinton. He was unprepared, unconvincing, and off-putting.

<snip>
It will take until the weekend to know for sure how much damage Trump did to his candidacy on Monday. That’s when a slew of national and battleground-state polls taken after the debate are due to be published. The small amount of data we already have, though, suggests that Clinton can expect to enjoy a significant bounce.The Politico/Morning Consult poll is just one survey, but the numbers are telling.

Nine (9%) per cent of the respondents to the Politico/Morning Consult poll said the debate changed their minds about whom to vote for. Nine per cent of the electorate is a lot. If we assume that two-thirds of these voters switched to Clinton and one-third switched to Trump, which would be in line with the finding that Clinton won the debate by a two-to-one margin among respondents, we could expect the polls to swing in her favor by three (3%) per cent. - The New Yorker

If I'm reading this correctly and if HRC's post debate bump turns out to be only 3%, that 3% if added straight to each state's current average on FiveThirtyEight.com, would mean the following:

Puts out of reach
Pennsylvania +5.7 in favor of HRC
Michigan +6.6
Colorado +4.6
Wisconsin +6.8
Virginia +7.6
Minnesota +7.3
New Hamshire +5.7

Reverses these states into HRC’s column
Florida +2.4
Nevada +2.4
North Carolina +1.8
Ohio +1.2

It would also put in play
Iowa +0
Arizona -1.5 In favor of Donald
Georgia -2.6

We could be talking landslide and picking off congressional seats once again, that's how good Hillary was on Monday night.

[UMTerp01]

1. I just feel like there's so much time left and there are still 2 debates left

I mean if he recovers in the 2nd and 3rd debate those numbers could swing again. I feel like there's still too much time left. I personally feel as though the campaign season is way too long. Too long for the primaries and too long for the general election cycle. I just want election day to get here so I can vote and be done with it. I'm hoping its an early night. I need PA to be called early.

[ffr]

3. No. We have lots of people who either need to register to vote

or need to re-register. There's still time and there are millions of them.

[radical noodle]

5. He is incapable of doing debate prep

He doesn't have the control or the attention span. If he starts dragging up stuff about Biil, it will hurt him. She will be ready.

I agree about the length of the election cycle. Way too long.

[RobinA]

21. Agree

This isn't Obama sleeping through the first debate in 2012. Trump is a guy who hasn't ever shown any capacity for sustained attention or discipline. He hasn't even shown the ability to have a mature discussion or to think logically. He isn't going to suddenly pull himself together, crack the books, and come out organized and insightful. That would be like an elephant turning into a trapeze artist. Ain't going to happen. That performance on Monday is, in my opinion, the best he can do.

[Warpy]

13. Trump thinks his mistake was not being more of an asshole

He promises to "hit her harder," a rather unfortunate choice of words for someone most women already see as abusive.

We'll see.

He was only mildly off the rails in the last debate. If he goes full on foaming wack job, it could mean the end of him.

I'll be delighted if the last we see of Trump is his fat behind disappearing offshore to some island circled with mines and off limits to aircraft. Alone, of course, and we'll let him take a mirror for his favorite company.

[radical noodle]

2. She was awesome

I sure hope this gives her a bounce... a permanent bounce.

[Jeffersons Ghost]

4. K&R Here is another comparison w/ imagery

[unblock]

6. Lot of assumptions

I suspect that the debates matter less in the battleground states than in other places. This is because the battleground states have more ads and rallies and events as the candidates spend time and money there. So the debates are just one more factor. Whereas in non-battleground states there are very few ads and such so the debates are one of the few ways to change votes there.

Meaning much of the gain happens in the wrong states.

Not complaining though but I'll wait for the actual state-by-state polls

[ffr]

8. I posted that night Donald did damage

I want to know what this story eludes to about how big a bounce they're seeing from early polling. Combine all the positive media Hillary has been garnishing along with all the negative investigative stories coming out tomorrow...upha! This could be the nail in the cough. Enough to start driving republican seats into democratic seats, the beginning of the end of the GOP.
Yes, clearly pie in the sky assumptions. Let's enjoy and compare as the polls come in.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=2445908
ffr - Mon Sep 26, 2016, 09:46 PM

[vadermike]

7. i hope

so.. i am worried about the next two.. but i think debate viewership falls off the next two if i'm not mistaken... Altho President Obama was the imcumbent and i think he was well liked.. people wanted to see him do better next time... for the 2nd debate, except for Trump supporters, .. not so sure thats true of the general population.. This debate was a game-changer IMO.. she just needs to continue to do well, no major mistakes etc... even if the next two are a tie or slightly HRC thats a win for her.. i think her team knows they have to keep Donald on the defensive ! And he is not helping himself with these continued attacks on these women! what a doofus.. we must GOTV and tale nothing for granted and HRC team is not

[ffr]

9. Using Lawrence O’Donnell's title - When class president & class clown debated.

Very good analogy and why your worries will more than likely prove to be unfounded. Watch and decide for yourself. A juicy 19 min piece.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017403048
Thx StrictlyRockers

[sheshe2]

10. Thanks for your concern, mike.

You sound so worried. I am not. Viewership will NOT fall off for those that care about the outcome of this race and crushing Trump.

Women. POC. Black. We will be voting. Our numbers will be huge. Trust me on that.

[SunSeeker]

11. K & R

[davidn3600]

12. Debates usually don't have that kind of swing

There is a bounce. But there is a reason it is called a bounce....because it comes back down, especially as you go into the next debate.

These bumps don't tend to be as big as the post-convention ones, either.

Of course this isn't a traditional election, so who knows.

[ffr]

16. True, but the last paragraph shows a methodology

It's based on assumptions about which way the 9% broke, but does so using the 'who won' percentages. I could buy that.

Fingers crossed for more good news.

[Democat]

17. Undecidedes have to break at some point

Because of Johnson and Stein there are a lot of voters still not committed to either Clinton or Trump. Most of them will vote for one or the other.

[davidn3600]

18. And that might not happen until election day

It is true a lot of times voters will tell pollsters they support a 3rd party candidate. But then when it comes down to actually picking someone, they vote Democrat or Republican. Those people might not break until they are actually in the voting booth.

Who that would favor? we have no idea right now.

[OldRedneck]

14. Good news, but, GET OUT THE VOTE!!!!

We don't yet know the impact of down-ballot races, but, it's safe to assume Democrats have a good chance of picking up the Senate and narrowing the GOP majority in the House.

More important, though, is the impact on the Republican brand, which now is toxic.

Is it time to ask Karl Rove what happened to his "permanent Republican majority?"

[ffr]

15. Amen!

We need groups to organize two and three person display parties on busy, high visibility streets. Just hold up Hillary/Kaine signs and wave to people. It's encouraging for other democrats to see, especially after her dominating performance on Monday.

Republicans are reeling, licking their wounds. Now is the time to pounce and help build the blue wave!

[Warren DeMontague]

19. I hope so.

I've been befuddled, frankly, by the polls of the past few weeks. I think a good portion of it is just GOP sentiment congealing, like old puke on the sidewalk. Witness Oily Ted Cruz. Republicans are resigning themselves to the fact that Trump is the guy, and falling in line.

But seriously, the debate was so bad for Trump, there HAS TO be some fallout in the polls. Seriously.

[kentuck]

20. I think this may happen if he has a repeat of the first performance in the second debate?

That is why he must be thinking very seriously about whether it is worth the gamble?

[Stinky The Clown]

22. "We could be talking landslide and picking off congressional seats once again, that's . . . .

. . . . . how good Hillary was on Monday night."

How could anyone who watched the debate NOT see that?