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Thu Sep 29, 2016, 04:45 PM

Could Cat 5 Hurricane Matthew be the October surprise

Last edited Fri Sep 30, 2016, 11:06 PM - Edit history (2)

The longer it takes to turn is the bigger the threat to Jamaica, Cuba and the US mainland.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT14/refresh/AL1416W5_NL+gif/173801W5_NL_sm.gif

90 replies, 7274 views

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Arrow 90 replies Author Time Post
Reply Could Cat 5 Hurricane Matthew be the October surprise (Original post)
malaise Sep 2016 OP
kestrel91316 Sep 2016 #1
malaise Sep 2016 #2
dixiegrrrrl Sep 2016 #27
malaise Sep 2016 #33
mfcorey1 Sep 2016 #34
malaise Sep 2016 #66
jberryhill Sep 2016 #3
malaise Sep 2016 #5
dixiegrrrrl Sep 2016 #50
malaise Sep 2016 #72
malaise Sep 2016 #7
NightWatcher Sep 2016 #10
jberryhill Sep 2016 #11
NightWatcher Sep 2016 #19
jberryhill Sep 2016 #25
malaise Sep 2016 #55
malaise Sep 2016 #23
dixiegrrrrl Sep 2016 #28
annabanana Sep 2016 #35
Kingofalldems Sep 2016 #4
malaise Sep 2016 #6
Hekate Oct 2016 #86
canetoad Sep 2016 #8
malaise Sep 2016 #9
Lochloosa Sep 2016 #14
malaise Sep 2016 #16
mfcorey1 Sep 2016 #37
Lochloosa Sep 2016 #39
malaise Sep 2016 #74
Lochloosa Sep 2016 #75
annabanana Sep 2016 #36
dixiegrrrrl Sep 2016 #51
Ms. Toad Sep 2016 #12
Lochloosa Sep 2016 #15
Warpy Sep 2016 #18
malaise Sep 2016 #21
WhiteTara Sep 2016 #13
malaise Sep 2016 #24
1939 Sep 2016 #17
ProudToBeBlueInRhody Sep 2016 #20
malaise Sep 2016 #22
HipChick Sep 2016 #30
malaise Sep 2016 #42
mcar Sep 2016 #26
malaise Sep 2016 #29
suffragette Sep 2016 #31
malaise Sep 2016 #41
dixiegrrrrl Sep 2016 #52
OnlinePoker Sep 2016 #57
malaise Sep 2016 #65
malaise Sep 2016 #64
suffragette Sep 2016 #63
Are_grits_groceries Sep 2016 #32
malaise Sep 2016 #43
annabanana Sep 2016 #38
Baclava Sep 2016 #40
malaise Sep 2016 #44
Baclava Sep 2016 #45
malaise Sep 2016 #46
Baclava Sep 2016 #47
malaise Sep 2016 #48
dixiegrrrrl Sep 2016 #53
Baclava Sep 2016 #70
malaise Sep 2016 #71
OnlinePoker Sep 2016 #49
Baclava Sep 2016 #54
malaise Sep 2016 #56
OnlinePoker Sep 2016 #59
malaise Sep 2016 #61
dixiegrrrrl Sep 2016 #68
panader0 Sep 2016 #58
malaise Sep 2016 #60
Baclava Sep 2016 #62
malaise Sep 2016 #81
BumRushDaShow Sep 2016 #67
Ex Lurker Sep 2016 #69
malaise Sep 2016 #73
Baclava Oct 2016 #84
ReRe Sep 2016 #76
malaise Sep 2016 #77
ReRe Sep 2016 #78
malaise Sep 2016 #79
Kingofalldems Sep 2016 #80
malaise Sep 2016 #82
B2G Sep 2016 #83
malaise Oct 2016 #85
malaise Oct 2016 #87
B2G Oct 2016 #88
malaise Oct 2016 #89
OnlinePoker Oct 2016 #90

Response to malaise (Original post)


Response to kestrel91316 (Reply #1)

Thu Sep 29, 2016, 04:54 PM

2. We're as ready as we can be

Now we have to wait it out until Sunday/Monday.
At lunch time I went in the yard to speak with a plumber and the birds were making an unbelievable noise. I told my neighbor and the plumber to get ready - they are way ahead of us.
Thanks kestrel91316 - we may suffer some inconvenience - compared with the poor and homeless, we're the lucky ones.

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Response to malaise (Reply #2)

Thu Sep 29, 2016, 08:51 PM

27. Thinking of you

esp.since I saw that turn.

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Response to dixiegrrrrl (Reply #27)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 06:09 AM

33. We're laughing at the thought of a Cat3

and we know that no laughing matter. This poor fugging island cannot take a Cat 3 hurricane. We will survive - sure inconvenience will follow - this is really bad news.

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Response to malaise (Reply #33)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 07:00 AM

34. Batten down the hatches and let DU know you are okay!

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Response to mfcorey1 (Reply #34)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 06:16 PM

66. The power company will shut down

as the storm approaches to prevent people from electrocution but I'll let DUers know asp.
Waiting to see if Jim Cantore has landed

US Embassy just announced that it will be closed Monday and Tuesday.

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Thu Sep 29, 2016, 05:00 PM

3. Latest spaghetti plots

 


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Response to jberryhill (Reply #3)

Thu Sep 29, 2016, 05:03 PM

5. Max Mayfield is on it as well

and he's always right

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Response to malaise (Reply #5)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 12:37 PM

50. Who is Max Mayfield???? n/t

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Response to dixiegrrrrl (Reply #50)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 07:13 PM

72. Max Mayfield was head of the NHC during Katrina

He was begging people to leave New Orleans and I mean begging.

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Response to jberryhill (Reply #3)

Thu Sep 29, 2016, 05:23 PM

7. This one is scary

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Response to jberryhill (Reply #3)

Thu Sep 29, 2016, 05:35 PM

10. My money is always on the European model.

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Response to NightWatcher (Reply #10)

Thu Sep 29, 2016, 05:36 PM

11. Yeah. You and Donald Trump.

 


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Response to jberryhill (Reply #11)

Thu Sep 29, 2016, 07:00 PM

19. Try the veal. Tip your waitress.

Well played

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Response to NightWatcher (Reply #19)

Thu Sep 29, 2016, 07:34 PM

25. Good pitch

 

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Response to jberryhill (Reply #25)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 04:36 PM

55. Florida is now in the cone

Damn

Here's Masters' take on next week
Matthew’s anticipated landfall over Jamaica/Cuba/Haiti on Monday will weaken the storm, due to the high mountains it will interact with. This process may completely disrupt the inner core of Matthew, reducing the storm to Category 1 or 2 strength for several days, as it traverses The Bahamas. The storm may be able to re-intensify to major hurricane status in 2 - 3 days, though, over the exceptionally warm waters surrounding The Bahamas. If the GFS model is correct, Matthew will not punish The Bahamas for multiple days, but will instead march northwards just offshore the U.S. East Coast on Tuesday and Wednesday. However, the 00Z Friday run of the UKMET model suggests that the trough of low pressure pulling Matthew to the north will be too weak to continue doing this next week; high pressure will build in on Tuesday, forcing Matthew on a more northwesterly track through the heart of The Bahamas to a point perilously close to South Florida by Thursday. The five members of the European model ensemble that most closely match the operational run over the first 72 hours (Figure 6) have two members that go along with this idea. NHC has put the 5-day cone of uncertainty for Matthew very close to Miami, and it appears likely at this point that South Florida will experience at least the fringes of Matthew, with some heavy rains, if not a direct hit. In addition, the GFS and European ensembles suggest that Matthew could move quite close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina late next week.


https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3452

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Response to jberryhill (Reply #11)

Thu Sep 29, 2016, 07:05 PM

23. ROFL

literally

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Response to jberryhill (Reply #11)

Thu Sep 29, 2016, 08:52 PM

28. ** Snort **

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Response to jberryhill (Reply #11)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 07:05 AM

35. Heeee!. . .n/t

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Thu Sep 29, 2016, 05:01 PM

4. Yep. The local weather people have been tweeting for a few days

about this one. Look out.

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Response to Kingofalldems (Reply #4)

Thu Sep 29, 2016, 05:06 PM

6. I wonder what they're doing about Gitmo

It is going to be hit

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Response to malaise (Reply #6)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 05:13 AM

86. Maybe the remaining guys will do a runner and integrate into Cuban society



Seriously, I hope everyone in the region stays safe.

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Thu Sep 29, 2016, 05:26 PM

8. You may already know about this site


https://earth.nullschool.net

Global map of world winds in (almost) real time. Click bottom left 'EARTH' for options such as mean sea level pressure, waves etc.

Stay safe.

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Response to canetoad (Reply #8)

Thu Sep 29, 2016, 05:28 PM

9. I bookmarked it a while back

from DU - magnificent

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Response to canetoad (Reply #8)

Thu Sep 29, 2016, 05:59 PM

14. You might like this one also.

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Response to Lochloosa (Reply #14)

Thu Sep 29, 2016, 06:14 PM

16. Thanks

Gonna duck

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Response to Lochloosa (Reply #14)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 07:10 AM

37. Wow! That gives a powerful picture of the storm!

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Response to mfcorey1 (Reply #37)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 08:32 AM

39. Play around with it. It's got some cool features.

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Response to Lochloosa (Reply #39)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 07:54 PM

74. Sent it to several friends

Everyone loves it

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Response to malaise (Reply #74)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 08:11 PM

75. Nice. Stay safe

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Response to canetoad (Reply #8)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 07:08 AM

36. bookmarked, thanks. . .n/t

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Response to canetoad (Reply #8)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 12:39 PM

51. That is a fantastic map AND you move it around for better views!!!

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Thu Sep 29, 2016, 05:39 PM

12. Forgive my ignorance - I've lived in a tornado alley or two -

but not in the path of a hurricane. Both are destructive, but I don't have a clue how to predict hurricanes (or assess how accurate the projections might be).

I'm headed to Cozumel a week from today - it looks as if it (1) will be somewhere north of there by then and (2) not likely to get near it. Is that likely to be accurate? (I expect the timing is slightly more predictable than the path?)

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Response to Ms. Toad (Reply #12)

Thu Sep 29, 2016, 06:01 PM

15. Up to three days out its pretty accurate.

After that it a crap shoot.

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Response to Ms. Toad (Reply #12)

Thu Sep 29, 2016, 06:59 PM

18. You should be fine

Matthew will be past the area and the wave currently SW of the Cabo Verde Islands might not amount to anything.

If you are in a multi floor concrete hotel, you will survive but you might get wet and have to sit in the hall, away from windows.

What always surprised me the most about every hurricane I've been in is how LOUD the damned things are and it lasts for hours.

NOAA is usually the most accurate projection. They've gotten really good at it in recent years.

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Response to Ms. Toad (Reply #12)

Thu Sep 29, 2016, 07:03 PM

21. You're good to go

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Thu Sep 29, 2016, 05:53 PM

13. Stay safe!

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Response to WhiteTara (Reply #13)

Thu Sep 29, 2016, 07:06 PM

24. Thanks

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Thu Sep 29, 2016, 06:48 PM

17. Mid-September to the end of October is the peak season for hurricanes

but "October Surprise" and the "Karl Rove Weather Machine" make for good CT speculation.

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Thu Sep 29, 2016, 07:01 PM

20. To be fair there more tracks showing it going out to sea than hitting the East Coast

Obviously the Islands should brace themselves.

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Response to ProudToBeBlueInRhody (Reply #20)

Thu Sep 29, 2016, 07:04 PM

22. St Lucia had 10 inches of rain with 60mph winds

No deaths

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Response to malaise (Reply #22)

Thu Sep 29, 2016, 10:41 PM

30. No deaths...but they got some landslides...main road from airport is blocked..

and I need to get up to the North of the island

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Response to HipChick (Reply #30)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 10:16 AM

42. Stay safe sis

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Thu Sep 29, 2016, 07:41 PM

26. That does not look good

For the islands and the FL coast. Stay safe, my friend.

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Response to mcar (Reply #26)

Thu Sep 29, 2016, 08:57 PM

29. Does not look good

Thanks mcar

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Thu Sep 29, 2016, 11:16 PM

31. Stay safe, sis.

Good thoughts to you and yours.

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Response to suffragette (Reply #31)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 10:16 AM

41. Thanks sis

I'm amazed at how many people don't take these hurricanes seriously.
We went to the market and more than a few folks were planning to blow the storm away through prayer.

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Response to malaise (Reply #41)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 12:45 PM

52. I saw a video of a woman staring at a tornado and commanding it to stop

"in Jesus' name".

She appeared quiet convinced that would work, until her husband, who was filming the oncoming tornado, dragged her to the basement.

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Response to dixiegrrrrl (Reply #52)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 05:03 PM

57. Friend of mine worked in a call center for an internet provider in the 90's

He got a call from someone in Oklahoma complaining that their internet was down. When he brought up the status page for the area, it indicated there were tornadoes around there and he relayed that to the complainant. The guy said "Yah, I can see one out across the field right now". My friend had to tell this person to hang up the phone and get into shelter immediately. Some people lose all common sense when it comes to serious weather emergencies.

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Response to OnlinePoker (Reply #57)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 06:12 PM

65. Well I think there will be more folks on Ward 21 next week

when cell phones and the internet stop working. I think many will walk the street gazing at their blank phones with blanker faces

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Response to dixiegrrrrl (Reply #52)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 06:10 PM

64. More than a few like her in these parts

One plans to rebuke the storm

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Response to malaise (Reply #41)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 05:58 PM

63. I'm glad you take them seriously and prepare appropriately.

I still remember an old post of yours about salt eggs

I see downthread that it's already become much stronger.

to you, my friend.

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 02:07 AM

32. Hang on!

I know you are always prepared. We study the weather like shamans looking for small portents.
Always have.

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Response to Are_grits_groceries (Reply #32)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 10:19 AM

43. Thanks Grits - hoping he stays away from your side next week

We're as ready as we can be.

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 07:11 AM

38. batten down my friend..

and check in now and again..

And if you lose power, check in as soon as you can!

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 08:54 AM

40. LOOKOUT! Matthew Rapidly Intensified to a Category 2 Hurricane



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Response to Baclava (Reply #40)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 10:20 AM

44. Hope the Cat3 prediction flops

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Response to malaise (Reply #44)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 10:37 AM

45. Intensity predictions are notoriously poor, but this one seems to be gaining strength fast

eyewall forming




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Response to Baclava (Reply #45)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 10:46 AM

46. Matthew is a serious hurricane

We've done what we're supposed to do - will put up the shutters on Sunday.
Nature rules - we have to work around her.

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Response to malaise (Reply #46)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 11:04 AM

47. yeah - the waiting is the hardest part - they come and they go in a day - hope power stays on!

Good luck and stay safe!

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Response to Baclava (Reply #47)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 11:06 AM

48. This morning we went for our usual walk

and took pictures of our beautiful trees. I remember all the trees that fell during Gilbert - they return in full in about seven years.

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Response to malaise (Reply #48)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 12:52 PM

53. I for one would love to see pics of where you are.

We lost a favorite and quite old oak tree during Ivan.
It was at the edge of my driveway and covered both my front yard and the neighbor's front yard.
One day I watched a hawk glide thru the branches, just missing the squirrel he was after.

Really quite sad it was gone; I love these old oaks.

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Response to malaise (Reply #46)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 06:55 PM

70. Don't forget to fill your freezer with water bottles! I have a bottle of mango rum in mine now

Just in case

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Response to Baclava (Reply #70)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 07:04 PM

71. Love it

Yep - water, beer and white wine are chilling or freezing - we've filled the house with fresh fruit

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Response to OnlinePoker (Reply #49)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 04:34 PM

54. What an eye!

That's a healthy cane

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Response to Baclava (Reply #54)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 04:57 PM

56. Now Cat 4

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Response to malaise (Reply #56)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 05:04 PM

59. That was quick.

From tropical storm to cat 4 in under 24 hours.

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Response to OnlinePoker (Reply #59)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 05:14 PM

61. From tropical wave to Cat 4

Where is Jim Cantore? ABC Florida is on their way.
I wish them luck because I swear that Palisadoes road to Norman Manley airport will be the first casualty.

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Response to malaise (Reply #44)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 06:51 PM

68. I was very alert upon noticing they had said it would be a hurricane right after it was ...born

coming off Africa.
Usually that is not done.

Wondering if it is our turn to meet all those over heated storms this season.

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 05:03 PM

58. Batten down the hatches---stay safe malaise!

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Response to panader0 (Reply #58)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 05:13 PM

60. There goes the coffee crop

and our South East coast

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Response to panader0 (Reply #58)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 05:52 PM

62. ..and Heads Up S. FL!

Don't trust the cone at this point - these things take on a life of their own when they get this strong






US East Coast on alert for potential impacts from Hurricane Matthew

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Response to Baclava (Reply #62)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 11:07 PM

81. Just saw RIck Scott warning FLoridians to pay attention

now a fugging Cat 5

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 06:36 PM

67. Watching the cones

and hoping for the best for you!

They are thinking it may turn out towards Bermuda before it gets this far up the coast but will monitor in any case. It's been bad enough around here with that Low sitting off the coast of MD/DE/NJ. It pumped over a foot rain so far in parts of Delaware today.

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 06:54 PM

69. No need tol panic, but everyone from the Keys to Nova Scotia should have a plan

GFS is showing Matthew as a Category 5 raking the east coast next week

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Response to Ex Lurker (Reply #69)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 07:45 PM

73. Kingston and St Andrew better have a plan and yes we do but

this has never happened - I fear for Port Royal, St Thomas, all of the Kingston waterfront and Portmore, Then I fear for those squatting in the mountainsides and hills for we're expecting 8-24" of fugging rain and hurricane winds. If Kingston gets a direct hit, there will be a massive loss of life. That Palisadoes road to the airport is on my mind.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
From Jeff Masters
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3453
The threat to the Greater Antilles from Matthew is becoming increasingly worrisome. The most immediate concern is for Jamaica, where a Hurricane Watch has been posted. The latest NHC outlook brings Matthew over the eastern tip of Jamaica on Monday afternoon. A westward shift of just 50 miles--well within the range of uncertainty at this point--would put the city of Kingston in Matthew’s dangerous right-hand side. A major hurricane striking Jamaica from the south would be a virtually unprecented event. Figure 5 shows the tracks of all major hurricanes passing over or very near Jamaica since 1851. All of the prior events involved storms tracking on a classic west-northwest path except for an unnamed 1912 hurricane that crossed the northwest tip of the island on a northeast path, then made a 180-degree turn. Among all hurricanes since 1851 (not shown), the only one to have crossed Jamaica on a primarily northward track during the last 80 years is Sandy (2012), which struck eastern Jamaica at Category 2 strength. Sandy caused an estimated $100 million in damage in Jamaica and knocked out power to most of the island. Matthew could be much stronger than Sandy, and a northward-oriented path through central Jamaica could bring a severe storm surge into the highly vulnerable Kingston area.

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Response to malaise (Reply #73)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 01:28 AM

84. You be buried under the spaghetti! Nothing wrong with a little panic.

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 09:27 PM

76. I suggest...

... you and yours (and all DUers in the path, for that matter) batten down your hatches and then high-tail it out of there to parts west and north until it passes out of your area.

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Response to malaise (Reply #77)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 10:27 PM

78. OK... but I'll still worry about you. eom

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Response to ReRe (Reply #78)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 10:29 PM

79. Awwwwwwwwwwww

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 10:32 PM

80. Photo inside the eye of Hurricane Matthew:

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Response to Kingofalldems (Reply #80)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 11:08 PM

82. This is crazy

now Cat 5

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Response to malaise (Reply #82)

Fri Sep 30, 2016, 11:32 PM

83. Strongest hurricane ever

 

At that latitude.

Looks like it's going to start an EWRC. I'm seriously getting concerned for you Malaise.

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Response to B2G (Reply #83)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 05:12 AM

85. We'll be fine

I'm concerned for the poor and vulnerable - there will be a massive loss of life and property

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Response to B2G (Reply #83)

Mon Oct 3, 2016, 07:33 PM

87. Haiti may e hit by a Cat4 tonight - first time in history

and they can't handle a Cat1.

Bumping this thread because it may well be an October surprise

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Response to malaise (Reply #87)

Mon Oct 3, 2016, 08:29 PM

88. God.

 

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Response to B2G (Reply #88)

Mon Oct 3, 2016, 08:39 PM

89. It's a monster

Rain moving in on us as well- mild compared with Haiti

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Response to malaise (Reply #87)

Mon Oct 3, 2016, 09:13 PM

90. I just looked it up.

They've been hit by two Cat 4's in the past, Flora in 1963 and Cleo in 1964, both coming ashore on the south-western peninsula.

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