The End of White Christian America and Trump's Desperate Promises to Save It

[StrictlyRockers]

http://www.alternet.org/books/end-white-christian-america-and-trumps-desperate-promises-save-it

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DH: It used to be everybody thought they were middle class.

RJ: I think that even for Democrats when there's a lot of rhetoric pitched at the middle class, there's a lot of white working-class Americans that think that just goes right over their heads and doesn't address their needs. This is all part of the big picture understanding that they are not middle class anymore—is the sense that their own power and influence—whether you're talking cultural influence, demographic influence—is really passing from the scene. They are also realizing that they're losing a big part of the next generation as a lot of their children have left town and left the church. Knowing that they're not hanging on to a significant number of the younger generation has heightened this sense of decline.

DH: Let's talk about the millennial tidal wave. Is it going to be enough for the Democrats? I don't want to make you a prognosticator, that is Silver’s job. But the millennial generation is huge. They're much more liberal but clearly older people vote at higher levels.

RJ: That's right. That's the real challenge for Democrats. If this race weren't among only registered voters but among the general population, it would be a hands down landslide for Hillary Clinton. Against the backdrop of the demographic changes we are experiencing, the ballot box functions as a kind of time machine that, every election cycle, takes the demographics back to where they were a decade ago. In other words, there is a temporal lag between changes in the general population and when they show up at the ballot box, mainly because of higher voter registration and turnout rates among older white Christians.

DH: How long is the lag?

RJ: If you do the white Christians as a kind of metric, there are 45 percent white Christians in the country, and if the trend continues this year white Christians will make up 55 percent of the electorate.

DH: Maybe more so in Pennsylvania and Ohio?

RJ: Interestingly the declines we see among white Christians at the national level have been pretty consistent even if you look at Pennsylvania and Ohio, or at states such as North Carolina that have more recently become battleground states. The elements that are driving the decline are fairly consistent across states. On the one hand, young whites are disaffiliating from Christian churches. On the other hand, it's demographic changes such as Latino immigration and lower birth rates among whites.

Using the proportion of the country that identifies as white and Christian is a good metric of demographic and cultural change. Today, there is a 10 percentage point difference between the proportion of white Christians in the general population, 45 percent, and what we project to be the composition of the electorate in 2016, 55 percent. If the trends continue, it'll be 2024—two election cycles from now—before the electorate looks like the general population today.

DH: Wow, 2024.

RJ: Even with this temporal lag, I argue in my book that Mitt Romney's campaign was the last one that could depend on a white Christian strategy—piling up super majorities of white Christian voters to offset the growing demographics.

DH: It didn't work.

RJ: No. It didn't work for Romney. He basically hit all his marks. He got as many evangelical votes as George W. Bush did. Turn out rate wasn't suppressed and he still lost. Trump looks like he's doubling down on that failed strategy so we'll have a real test case of the viability of that strategy on our hands.

<...>

[struggle4progress]

1. Well, that's a strange analysis. Clinton is a regular church-goer and Trump is not. Moreover,

it's not clear to me whether Christians usually do or do not regard Mormons as Christian

[Bernardo de La Paz]

5. Yeah, but evangelicals & fundies support the anal sex tape candidate whose wife poses porno shots.nt

[winetourdriver]

6. Church

It's important to remember that white christian culture is patriarchal, they do not believe women should hold positions of power. They simply won't vote for a female president. Period.

[muriel_volestrangler]

7. The claim in the article is that Trump is offering white Christians power, rather than values

and that they know they're becoming a minority as 'white Christians', so many are willing to support whoever want to preserve their power. And they're largely doing that, especially evangelicals:



From an August poll - in which Clinton had a 48-35 lead overall, but Trump led white voters by 5 points. The unaffiliated are significantly against him, thought, so his lead in white Christians is big.

http://www.prri.org/research/lgbt-2016-presidential-election/

[guillaumeb]

2. That make believe America feels better to Trump voters. They desperately want to believe

that it was real and not television.

Reagan's "It's morning in America again" message updated for the same crowd of uninformed white voters.

[Peacetrain]

3. That is bass ackwards .. since Clinton is the Christian and Trump

likes his little wine and little crackers (all he knows apparently).. just saying

[Bernardo de La Paz]

4. Got to encourage, cajole, plead with the millenials to vote.