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Sat Oct 1, 2016, 10:00 AM

Tracking Matthew folks - what if he does not turn North

and continues WNW - what then?

He is still going West (add)

74 replies, 5758 views

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Reply Tracking Matthew folks - what if he does not turn North (Original post)
malaise Oct 2016 OP
Iliyah Oct 2016 #1
malaise Oct 2016 #2
redstatebluegirl Oct 2016 #61
B2G Oct 2016 #3
malaise Oct 2016 #62
Gman Oct 2016 #4
B2G Oct 2016 #7
malaise Oct 2016 #10
Gman Oct 2016 #18
malaise Oct 2016 #26
MineralMan Oct 2016 #5
malaise Oct 2016 #27
dixiegrrrrl Oct 2016 #6
malaise Oct 2016 #11
B2G Oct 2016 #8
malaise Oct 2016 #9
csziggy Oct 2016 #12
malaise Oct 2016 #13
csziggy Oct 2016 #14
Baclava Oct 2016 #16
Ms. Toad Oct 2016 #17
csziggy Oct 2016 #22
Ms. Toad Oct 2016 #23
csziggy Oct 2016 #24
Ms. Toad Oct 2016 #25
Ms. Toad Oct 2016 #32
csziggy Oct 2016 #34
Ms. Toad Oct 2016 #36
csziggy Oct 2016 #37
Ms. Toad Oct 2016 #58
OnlinePoker Oct 2016 #15
malaise Oct 2016 #20
kentuck Oct 2016 #19
malaise Oct 2016 #21
malaise Oct 2016 #28
kentuck Oct 2016 #30
malaise Oct 2016 #31
chillfactor Oct 2016 #29
greytdemocrat Oct 2016 #33
greytdemocrat Oct 2016 #35
Baclava Oct 2016 #38
malaise Oct 2016 #39
B2G Oct 2016 #40
Baclava Oct 2016 #41
suffragette Oct 2016 #42
malaise Oct 2016 #43
suffragette Oct 2016 #44
malaise Oct 2016 #45
suffragette Oct 2016 #46
malaise Oct 2016 #48
suffragette Oct 2016 #54
malaise Oct 2016 #56
suffragette Oct 2016 #64
BumRushDaShow Oct 2016 #47
malaise Oct 2016 #49
B2G Oct 2016 #50
suffragette Oct 2016 #55
B2G Oct 2016 #66
greytdemocrat Oct 2016 #65
avebury Oct 2016 #51
malaise Oct 2016 #52
mia Oct 2016 #53
malaise Oct 2016 #63
Jeanette in FL Oct 2016 #57
malaise Oct 2016 #59
Jeanette in FL Oct 2016 #60
titaniumsalute Oct 2016 #67
greytdemocrat Oct 2016 #68
malaise Oct 2016 #69
Baclava Oct 2016 #70
malaise Oct 2016 #71
Baclava Oct 2016 #73
malaise Oct 2016 #74
greytdemocrat Oct 2016 #72

Response to malaise (Original post)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 10:03 AM

1. Just woke up (California here)

Nice to see you posting!

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Response to Iliyah (Reply #1)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 10:05 AM

2. We're been preparing for a week

Shutters will go up later today. The impact will begin sometime late tomorrow - we're hoping for the eye to miss us but are as ready as we can be for whatever comes our way.

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Response to malaise (Reply #2)

Sun Oct 2, 2016, 05:53 PM

61. Stay safe! This one sounds awful!

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 10:16 AM

3. He will.

 

Most likely late tonight or early tomorrow.

But the when and how sharp of a north turn is going to make all of the difference.

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Response to B2G (Reply #3)

Sun Oct 2, 2016, 05:55 PM

62. Not yet

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 10:18 AM

4. The 72 and 96 hour points

Put the path east of you. Models have been trending east.

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Response to Gman (Reply #4)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 10:38 AM

7. Last night the GFS trended way west

 

It runs again in 20 minutes...should be interesting.

It's wild how far apart the GFS and Euro were last night.

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Response to Gman (Reply #4)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 11:34 AM

10. Good news for us - really bad news for Haiti

Ah well.

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Response to malaise (Reply #10)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 01:52 PM

18. Yeah, that was my other thought

And they haven't yet recovered from the earthquake.

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Response to Gman (Reply #18)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 06:29 PM

26. This is frightening

Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 25
inches over southern Haiti, with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 40 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over eastern Jamaica, the Dominican
Republic, and eastern Cuba, with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 25 inches. This rainfall will likely produce life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 10:23 AM

5. Good luck down there, Malaise!

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Response to MineralMan (Reply #5)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 06:29 PM

27. Thanks bro

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 10:34 AM

6. What then is......me



and we know the damn things can be very unpredictable.

They poor folks in Louisiana must be going thru PTSD even this early.

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Response to dixiegrrrrl (Reply #6)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 11:35 AM

11. Nah - no GOM say the experts

Anyway they say it's coming between Haiti and Jamaica

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 10:47 AM

8. Link to a Jamaican radio station

 

Posting this in the even Malaise loses power so those who are so inclined can hear what's happening down there.

I've listened in the past...they have very good coverage.

http://www.jamaicaradio.net/power-106/

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Response to B2G (Reply #8)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 11:33 AM

9. Power is pretty good

Here's another one

http://www.rjr94fm.com/live.php

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 11:55 AM

12. Historically many of the storms that travel south of Cuba turn north at the Yucatan

Then loop back to the east coming in between New Orleans and the Big Bend of North Florida:

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2016/Hurricane-Matthew?map=historical

I'm keeping a close eye on Matthew. Tallahassee was already hit by one hurricane this year - Hermine came in the Thursday before Labor Day weekend and I was without power and water for five days. (Some friends lent me their generator when they got power back and let me use their shower but it was still an inconvenient situation.)

Historically the chances of two hurricanes hitting here are low but since the climate is changing past events are not a reliable indication of what might happen.

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Response to csziggy (Reply #12)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 11:57 AM

13. Hope we're both lucky

Time to hit the road

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Response to malaise (Reply #13)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 12:02 PM

14. Take care, Malaise, and stay safe

I hope everyone in the path of Mathew will be safe! Matthew looks to be a nasty storm.

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Response to malaise (Reply #13)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 12:07 PM

16. 'Jamaica in Hurricane Matthew’s cross hairs'

"The Government will do what it can; it will do its part, but I have to appeal to the individual responsibility of each and every Jamaican to look out for your own safety and security ...Heed the warnings that are given from the Government, particularly warnings to evacuate” he urged.

http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/High-alertMet-Service-says-Jamaica-in-Hurricane-Matthew---s-cross-hairs_75725


do what you have to do to stay safe - good luck

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Response to csziggy (Reply #12)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 01:40 PM

17. So which hurricane is it that went right by Cancun/Cozumel?

I'll be there Thursday, unless Matthew doesn't turn . . .

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Response to Ms. Toad (Reply #17)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 04:49 PM

22. Wilma in 2005



Wilma wasn't as strong as far east as Matthew is and it turned back east earlier than many storms that take the south of Cuba track. For more: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Wilma

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Response to csziggy (Reply #22)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 05:47 PM

23. That's not the track I'm looking at.

There are three in the map in post 12 that start where Matthew started; one of those three went through the gulf, then up across the US. That's the one I'm asking about.

Wilma swung back out into the ocean, rather than up across the US. Katrina took a similar path across the us, but hit Florida on the way in, rather than starting down near South America.

(My first trip to Cozumel was shortly after Wilma.)

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Response to Ms. Toad (Reply #23)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 06:03 PM

24. Those are composite historical tracks

"Tracks of all October Category 3 and 4 Hurricanes within 2 degrees of Matthew between 1851 and 2015." Weatherunderground does not name the particular storms that created the tracks.

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Response to csziggy (Reply #24)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 06:26 PM

25. Hmm. I'm misreading it again.

I read it as there being only 3 (or perhaps only 2) October Category 3 and 5 Hurricanes in that time period, within 2 degrees of Matthew, shown by the three (2?) tracks (rather than being a composite).

Why would they choose to create three composite tracks for a larger number of hurricanes? I can't see that would be much use to anyone.

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Response to csziggy (Reply #22)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 09:14 PM

32. Found them.

Hazel (the track that goes East of Florida)



and an unnamed hurricane in 1915 that passed betwee Mexico and Cuba and hit Louisiana.

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Response to Ms. Toad (Reply #32)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 11:17 PM

34. Thanks! I did some looking but didn't have the time to hunt allthe way through. nt

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Response to csziggy (Reply #34)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 11:30 PM

36. A news article mentioned the eerie similarity to Hazel,

So once I had one of the two, I knew the other made landfall in Louisiana in October. It didn't take too long after that, since there weren't that many.

I guess seeing the two paths makes me feel a bit better. Without minimizing the destruction Matthew is likely to leave in its wake - my last year has been a personal hell (three chronic/major illnesses, including cancer). I desperately need the diving break I have planned for Cozumel this week.

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Response to Ms. Toad (Reply #36)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 11:37 PM

37. It looks as though Matthew is slowing to make its turn north

So I hope you have a good vacation in Cozumel.

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Response to csziggy (Reply #37)

Sun Oct 2, 2016, 05:08 PM

58. We look relatively safe.

The dive resort we're staying at called us yesterday to reassure us that (1) Matthew isn't headed their way and (2) we should come even if it does . . .

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 12:06 PM

15. Slowing down on it's westward march.

Looks like it's close to making the turn north. Good thing is, hurricane force winds only extend out 30 miles so major damage will be concentrated in a narrow band. Not great if you're in that band, though.

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Response to OnlinePoker (Reply #15)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 02:45 PM

20. 2mph - damn!

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 02:08 PM

19. Stay safe, malaise.

It looks very bad.

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Response to kentuck (Reply #19)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 02:46 PM

21. Ivan looked just as bad and turned West at the

last minute

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Response to kentuck (Reply #19)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 06:31 PM

28. Rain and wind will be the problem but we're on the safer side of

this mess

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Response to malaise (Reply #28)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 07:47 PM

30. It's a monster!

Stay in the hole.

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Response to kentuck (Reply #30)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 07:52 PM

31. That it is

It's way bigger than Gilbert but Gilbert steamed through from Morant Point to Negril crushing everything in the way. It will b very bad for lots of people on our island.
One of my siblings suggested that we head for Miami for a week and I askedd her of she wanted us to greet Matthew in Florida - we is so afraid and they survived Andrew.

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 07:17 PM

29. do stay safe!

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 10:29 PM

33. Storm is nearly stationary

For now. Looks like it will miss you
which is a good thing. Still lots of rain
I bet.

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 11:28 PM

35. Oops!

It's on the move, NNW at 6 mph

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Response to greytdemocrat (Reply #35)

Sun Oct 2, 2016, 02:12 AM

38. yep - he made his turn to the North

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Response to Baclava (Reply #38)

Sun Oct 2, 2016, 09:06 AM

39. He's still going Northwest

Damn

Look at this monster - I've never seen anything like this

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Response to malaise (Reply #39)

Sun Oct 2, 2016, 10:13 AM

40. Seems to be undergoing an EWRC

 

That is not good news.

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Response to malaise (Reply #39)

Sun Oct 2, 2016, 12:24 PM

41. a little wobble wobble to the west now, slowing down to 3 mph

when they get this big they take on a life of their own

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Response to malaise (Reply #39)

Sun Oct 2, 2016, 02:02 PM

42. It almost looks like two centers - is that usual? Be safe, malaise.

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Response to suffragette (Reply #42)

Sun Oct 2, 2016, 02:36 PM

43. I'm no expert

but it looks unusual. We've prepared and aren't taking any chances. We're not leaving here until Matthew is finished doing his thing.

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Response to malaise (Reply #43)

Sun Oct 2, 2016, 02:54 PM

44. Masters is saying it's unusual, too.



https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/matthew-stalls-and-weakens-but-expected-to-head-north-threat-to-us
All factors considered, a Category 3 hurricane at landfall Monday night is probably the most likely scenario. It is unknown what role, it any, the unusual blob of heavy thunderstorms that has persisted on Matthew’s east side might play in the future evolution of the storm. If this intense area of thunderstorms remains intact through Monday night, it could result in catastrophic rains for Haiti.


I guess odd blobs are the new normal. We have the hot water Pacific blob over here which seemed to go away, but was just hiding in the ocean depths before re-emerging. Now you have extra thunderstorm blobs joining with a hurricane.

Good thoughts to you!

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Response to suffragette (Reply #44)

Sun Oct 2, 2016, 02:59 PM

45. Here com the outerbands - lightning and thunder to boot

Time for some fresh coconut water and nuts. It's going to be a rough ride if this i sthe beginning - serious lightning - heavy rain.

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Response to malaise (Reply #45)

Sun Oct 2, 2016, 03:05 PM

46. I'm so glad you stocked up and prepared for this.

I know it's just thoughts reaching out through electrons, but we are all here for you.

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Response to suffragette (Reply #46)

Sun Oct 2, 2016, 03:10 PM

48. We're as secure as possible - we'll ride this out

for the next few days. There is no wind with the outer bands where we are in St Andrew.

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Response to malaise (Reply #48)

Sun Oct 2, 2016, 04:32 PM

54. Glad for that.

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Response to suffragette (Reply #54)

Sun Oct 2, 2016, 05:01 PM

56. The real problem is that Matthew is now crawling at 4mph

That's a recipe for mud slides.

Masters says threat to the US has increased
Matthew Stalls and Weakens, but Expected to Head North; Threat to U.S. Increases
<snip>
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3457
Longer-range track forecast for Matthew: risk increases to U.S. East Coast
Over the past two days, our two best computer models have been trending towards a more westerly track for Matthew late this week, increasing the odds that Matthew will make a direct hit somewhere along the U.S. East Coast. Sunday’s 00Z European model and 06Z GFS model had Matthew coming very close to or making landfall in North Carolina 6 - 7 days from now. As one can see from the latest set of ensemble model runs (Figure 4), just about any location along the East Coast could potentially see a hurricane landfall this week. Since the hurricane is expected to be moving roughly parallel to the coast, a long stretch of the coast may receive strong winds and heavy rain from Matthew. We do have three decent models predicting a path for Matthew well away for the U.S. coast late in the week, though—the HWRF, Canadian and GFDL—so it is not yet a foregone conclusion that Matthew will impact the U.S. coast.

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Response to malaise (Reply #56)

Sun Oct 2, 2016, 06:21 PM

64. Scary when lightning and thunder is the relative calm before the storm.

And not good that it is moving so slowly.

Better that bad boy should scoot on through quickly.

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Response to malaise (Reply #45)

Sun Oct 2, 2016, 03:09 PM

47. Hang in there!

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Reply #47)

Sun Oct 2, 2016, 03:11 PM

49. Thanks

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Response to suffragette (Reply #44)

Sun Oct 2, 2016, 03:22 PM

50. That blob is feeding off the Tradewinds. Nt

 

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Response to B2G (Reply #50)

Sun Oct 2, 2016, 04:41 PM

55. Does that happen often?

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Response to suffragette (Reply #55)

Mon Oct 3, 2016, 11:15 AM

66. Definitely with intense storms. nt

 

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Response to B2G (Reply #50)

Sun Oct 2, 2016, 11:58 PM

65. That Blob

At times has been bigger than the
hurricane. I've never seen anything
like it before.

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Sun Oct 2, 2016, 03:44 PM

51. I hope that you, your family and everyone on Jamaica

remains safe.

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Response to avebury (Reply #51)

Sun Oct 2, 2016, 03:45 PM

52. Thanks

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Sun Oct 2, 2016, 03:46 PM

53. Stay safe, malaise.

Following your thread and another one on Storm2k:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewforum.php?f=59

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Response to mia (Reply #53)

Sun Oct 2, 2016, 05:56 PM

63. Thanks for the link

and the good thoughts. It's stopped raining for now

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Sun Oct 2, 2016, 05:06 PM

57. I have been thinking of you all weekend

Been thinking of you all weekend while watching this storm. Hope that it stays east of you. Stay safe my friend. What a storm Matthew is! Came on to DU and was glad to read your updates. Keep the coming and thanks for the radio/media links. Will be listening! Jeanette in FL

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Response to Jeanette in FL (Reply #57)

Sun Oct 2, 2016, 05:09 PM

59. Hi there

Looks like the most you'll get is a swipe on your East coast. We're as ready aswe'll ever be.

I see Ben Kennedy is all over Kingston

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Response to malaise (Reply #59)

Sun Oct 2, 2016, 05:18 PM

60. Back at ya!

We are back down in West Palm Beach, so we have been watching closely. Looks like it will stay east of us. Rain and wind, I hope. It has been over 11 years since we have had anything down here. Who is Ben Kennedy? LOL

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Mon Oct 3, 2016, 12:30 PM

68. Stay safe malaise

The huge amount of rain being
recorded is amazing. One weather station
in the DR recorded 5.33 inches in 1 hour.

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Response to greytdemocrat (Reply #68)

Mon Oct 3, 2016, 12:41 PM

69. DR and Haiti will get the worst of the rain and wind

We expect 10-20 inches of rain which is a lot of rain over two and a half ways. Just steady rain now.

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Response to malaise (Reply #69)

Mon Oct 3, 2016, 04:19 PM

70. Looks like it's going to miss ya! run N straight up the middle and stay over water for the most part

Bad news for the Bahamas, 15 ft storm surge predicted

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Response to Baclava (Reply #70)

Mon Oct 3, 2016, 04:31 PM

71. They say we're getting a 10ft surge in Kingston

We'll see - we're just waiting for whatever and since Matthew is 195 miles SE of Kingston moving at 5mph, that's quite a wait. Guess more outer bands will move in later but there has been no heavy rain in my part of St Andrew today and no lightning and thunder since yesterday.

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Response to malaise (Reply #71)

Mon Oct 3, 2016, 06:22 PM

73. You should be OK from the worst of it , I told ya the waiting is the hardest part

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Response to Baclava (Reply #73)

Mon Oct 3, 2016, 06:27 PM

74. Yep - downgraded to Tropial Storm Warning now

Rick Scott in full panic mode in Florida.

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Response to malaise (Reply #69)

Mon Oct 3, 2016, 06:07 PM

72. Unless it taks a jog west

you guys should be fine except for flooding. The
Bahamas on the other hand...

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