More on Gingrich's chances to pull it out. (Sorry about that word choice, btw)
Last edited Wed Dec 28, 2011, 09:37 PM - Edit history (1)
Unlike Perry & Cain, who tanked after they opened their mouths, Gingrich is hanging on to most of his supporters. I think they've come to terms with his immorality (they'll say "imperfection" ) because they have no place else to go. Some evangelicals in Iowa are coming to their senses and going back to Perry or Santorum, but that's not typical of the hate-filled tribal/cultural Republican voters in the rest of the country.
Check this out: http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contest/geo/US
Nationally Gingrich had a good early December. One oft-cited PPP poll had him up 35% to 22% over Romney. But that same day (December 18th) Both CNN and CBS released polls showing Romney and Gingrich tied up at 28% and 20% respectively. In the last ten days Newt's been hammered by a barrage of press scrutiny, embarrassing revelations, negative coverage, and attack ads. Yet over the last ten days, Gallup's daily polling showed Romney barely pulling even:
[div align="center"]19th - 25-23
20th - 25-23
21st - 27-21
22nd - 26-22
23rd - 26-23
26th - 25-24
27th - 25-25
For the sake of argument, I'm suggesting that national numbers tend to show how voters will behave in a primary far more than the more involved/immersed caucus voters will behave.
Movement toward Mittens is minimal, and arguably within the margin of error. People who might vote for him are already voting for him. Meanwhile, Obama's approval numbers are creeping up. People backing Newt are always gonna hate Obama. But among Romney supporters are those who are capable of swinging to the Democrats in case the economy improves or the Republicans look too much like clowns. Mitt's hit his ceiling, the polls keep showing, but I think he's yet to find out what his personal floor is. I think he's caged in like a dog.
Now interesting things are happening in Iowa, that news is usually eclipsed each election cycle by what happens in New Hampshire--I think this particularly true among Republicans. But I still think NH will itself get eclipsed by South Carolina & Florida. Those are big media states and will have two weeks of media blitz after New Hampshire.
Sorry Paulettes, but Iowa doesn't matter. And because of Romney's fave-neighbor status, New Hampshire doesn't matter much. It's only a winnowing field for the anti-Romney. The real crucible of the primary season will be in South Carolina & Florida. This is where Paul returns to factional side show status. More importantly, this is make or break territory for Rick Perry, the only other viable anti-Romney in the race. The most recent polling is pre-implosion Newt, but I'd argue that those states have more tribal/ideological Republicans who don't care about corruption so much as reliable conservatism--meaning not-Romney.
In Florida on the 6th and 7th of December CNN/Time and NBC/Marist respectively released polls, showing Newt 25 & 15 points up over Romney respectively. On the 5th and 6th the less reliable SurveyUSA firm conducted a robo-poll showing Newt up by 22 points. In those polls, the non-Romney/non-Paul candidates collectively held 8-13% of support. That votes going to be split between Perry & Newt. The question isn't can Romney get them (he can't). The question is can Perry get them away from Gingrich. As a Texan, I suspect Perry can't.
[font size="1"]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_republican_presidential_primary-1597.html[/font]
In South Carolina, Gingrich led Romney a week ago by 38-21% (Clemson poll) or 31-19% (InsiderAdvantage). Compare that with the polls from the first week of December: 43-20% (CNN/Time) and 42-23% (NBC/Marist). Newt dropped 6-12%, but Romney didn't gain, in fact he also fell (but inside the margin of error). So who gained? In those polls, Paul went from 6-9% to 7-10%; Bachmann went from 6-7% to 5-8%; Perry went from 7-8% to 5%; Santorum stayed in the 2-4% range; Huntsman went from 1-3% to 3-4%. In other words... no one is gaining yet. There's no one left to run to. Gingrich should hold there and may actually start to come back once his fund raising kicks in in the next couple of weeks.
[font size="1"]http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contest/geo/SC[/font]
From that time to now, Newt's national lead over Romney dropped about 10 points. Given that this is his strongest area of support, I would guess that his lead over Romney in SC and FL would right now be in the 10 to 15 point range. The question really is, who's more likely to shoot himself in the foot and give up the mantle of anti-Romney right now, Gingrich or Perry--the Tortoise or the Hair. The only other possible break-out could be Santorum... he's not had his turn as the anti-Mitt. He does have some movement in Iowa right now (CNN has him up to 16%, but everyone else has him around 10%). I suspect for him it's too little too late.
[font size="1"]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html
AND http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html [/font]
Again, I know the wolves are turning on Newt lately. But I'm not sure there's that much meat left to picked from his carcass. If I was a Republican, I would be tired of jumping from one nonMitt of the month to the next. I would hate you and I would kick puppy dogs and I would feel like an aging Tri Delt with a week left to find a date for the prom. I gotta go with somebody in 2012, even if it's that ugly fat kid from Georgia. It's not that Newt won't say stupid shit between now and February, rather it's that it's the same old stupid shit he's said before. People are used to it. Unlike Romney, I think he's hit his floor.
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